英文论文房价线性回归分析

1、The distribution of educational resources in Beijing city and the housing pricesAbstract：House price is not only affected by national macroeconomic policy, but also affected by the public facilities and the environment around. The equilibrium distribution of education resource result in house price

2、fluctuation. That is not equity and widen the gap between the rich and the poor. We research the factors affecting the house price of Beijing key schools, result point that school district house price is 13.8% higher than that of non-school district house having similar conditions. By controlling ot

3、her public resources, like subway station, park and kindergarten, and itself property, like house age, greening rate, plot ratio, result suggest that school district house in Haidian and Chaoyang have premium of 31%. Meanwhile, they have premium of 23% totally. The result is, different house price r

4、eflect inequality of Beijings education resources, and most part of high quality resources distribute in central area. These spatial pattern is unreasonable, reducing the utilization of high quality public resources, and resulting in sharp rise of house price in the central area, lastly, expanding w

5、ealth gap. So the government should enhance quality of education and improve traffic efficiency. Through these measures, we can reach these goals: the suburbs improving its attractiveness, population density of Beijing decreasing, and more importantly, public resources distributing equality.Keywords

6、: house price; public resource; factors; inequality; population density1.IntroductionReal estate is one of the most important parts of the economy in our country, the price rise is the result of multiple factors. The quality of public resources is an important factor to affect the price of housing,

7、which is especially important in the teaching quality of residential buildings.The education resources has always been an important impact on housing prices, for example, according to the study, in 2004, in the transition process from a poor school in London to a top school, house prices have an inc

8、rease of 61000 pounds. Early studies such as Oates (1969) on the cost of real estate prices and public schools spending on each students, he found that they have a significant positive correlation, and the negative effect of house property tax on housing prices can be offset if they spend the money

9、to the school, the study shows that residents tend to pay higher prices to better public services. And Fullerton Rosen (1977) believes that the use of each student's spending in public schools as a variable is not very appropriate, because the cost of education, and other factors are not easy an

10、d accurate, so they use the average performance of students on behalf of the school quality, the results show that the data and prices are significantly positive correlation. However, it is not very good to solve the problem, in order to better quantification the quality of school teaching, Lucas Fi

11、glio (2004) introduced the school quality rating report the state government issued as a supplement to the students' average test score, the study shows that when introduced school quality rating system, the price will change significantly, but over time, this effect is rapidly decreasing, and o

12、nly in the first time, it play a greater role. Because of the impact of housing prices is not just the school teaching quality, which leads to missing variables, the existence of this error will affect the accuracy of the results of the regression.In recent years, the school district housing phenome

13、non in China has become more and more noticeable from the price point of view, for example Langya Road Primary School, Lixue primary school, Lhasa Road Primary School are three elite schools in Nanjing, from 2008 to April 2009 , prices rose quickly, the school district housing prices are more than 3

14、000 yuan/m2 than the average price, even in 2009 , housing prices generally fell 8.9%, the school district housing prices in April is still stable. The mechanism by which the residents choose to choose their place of residence to influence the housing price is likely to exist in China. If this mecha

15、nism exists, it will reflect the quality of education in a part of the housing price. Regardless of the economic situation is good or bad, the school district housing prices will not follow the economic law. Research shows that, some famous primary school has a significant effect on the school distr

16、ict housing premium.This paper focuses on the impact of key primary school on housing prices, thus revealing the unreasonable distribution of Beijing education resources, and from the perspective of optimizing the educational space pattern, promoting equal opportunities for education and reducing po

17、pulation density of Beijing city, we have discussed the problem of the development of Beijing city. In this paper, we have four aspects of improvement based on the previous research, 1, the data is no longer linear distance for the parameters, but the use of the shortest walking distance to make the

18、 analysis more close to reality. 2, this paper studies the Haidian District Chaoyang District, Xicheng District and Dongcheng District, it is different from the common use of Tiananmen as the center of the method to control the degree of prosperity. 3, the selection of primary school in Beijing City

19、 is the most famous ones. rather than the Beijing Municipal Education Commissions approval. 4, the data is second-hand housing transaction data, so it is more reliable.2.data description and research methodsBased on the existing research, this paper uses the data of Beijing city housing transaction,

20、 and using the model to control the relevant variables, we want to get a effective regression results, and analyze the effects of education quality, transportation facilities and environmental landscape on the house price. 2.1.the division of the school district and the school district houseCompulso

21、ry education law of China established the the enrollment policy that Chinese came near to the entrance , namely for every primary school, there is a scribe area, and within the scope of the scribe area, children have an exemption entrance treatment. So, generally speaking, each district has a corres

22、ponding primary school. This may has promoted the equality of education opportunity, however, there is a difference in the quality of primary school, relatively speaking some schools quality of education is far higher than ordinary by the government's priority support. Although the government ha

23、s abolished the system of dividing the primary school in 2000, the social prestige of the primary school has been established, and the status of the primary school is increasing.This paper selects 19 primary schools in Beijing city as a data source, table 1 is recognized as a key primary school list

24、.Table 1 list of key primary schoolsBeijing first experimental primary school, Beijing No.2 experimental primary school, Beijing Xicheng District huangchengden primary school, Xicheng District, Peking City, Yu Ming primary school, Beijing City, Xicheng Qu Yuxiang elementary school, Beijing Yucai ele

25、mentary school, struggle elementary schoolXicheng DistrictPrimary school affiliated to Beijing Haidian District Experimental Primary School, Beijing, Haidian District, Zhongguancun No.1 Primary School, Haidian District, Beijing Zhongguancun No.2 primary school, Beijing, Haidian District, ZhongGuanCu

26、n the third willow branch, Beijing Zhongguancun No.3 primary school campus in Zhongguancun, Renmin University of ChinaHaidian DistricThe first Beijing Normal School Affiliated elementary school, Beijing Jingshan School North Primary School Department, Beijing City Experimental Primary School, Dengsh

27、ikou primary school, Dongcheng District, Beijing, Dongcheng District, Peking City, historians primaryDongcheng DistrictBeijing fangcaode International SchoolChaoyang District Figure 1 primary distribution map of Beijing CityFigure 1 is a primary distribution map of Beijing city. As shown in Figure 1

28、, the primary school in Beijing is not in uniform distribution, they are concentrated in the comparison of the city of Haidian District, Chaoyang District, Dongcheng District and Xicheng District. In fact, the famous primary schools are mostly distributed in these four areas. Beijing Municipal Educa

29、tion Commission in 1950s has announced the list of 40 municipal primary schools, today, these primary schools are still the best primary school in Beijing. And has been widely recognized by the community, and the vast majority of these primary schools are in the above four districts.2.2.housing data

30、From Figure 1, we can see that the geographical distribution of Beijing city is basically a center to the surrounding Tiananmen, from a link to the rings, are built around the Tiananmen. We collected a total of 19 Beijing municipal key primary school district scribing a total of 120 residential and

31、112 non cshool district data. Variables include second-hand housing average price, , age (minus the 2015 year built), volume rate, green rate, distance to the center of the city(in KM), distance to the subway station(in KM), distance to the kindergarten(in KM),distance

32、to shopping malls(in KM),  distance to thepark(in KM), . And introduce some dummy variables, such as a small primary school district is 1, otherwise the value is 0.Table 2 is a description of the collected cell data. As shown in Table 2,  the average price of second-hand housing is 54

33、387, the mean distance from the downtown is 7.21 km, the average house age is 15.67 years, the average rate of volume is 2.68, average greening rate is 32%, and the mean distance from the nearest subway station is 0.87 km, to the nearest kindergarten flat were 1.24 km , average distance to

34、 the nearest mall is 0.95 km, the median distance to the nearest park is 1.22 km, the school district room price is 13267yuan/m2 higher than the average, and it is about 27.9%. Table 2 cell descriptionAverage price All sample School district room Non school district roomPrices 54387.84 60870.37 4760

35、3.5Downtown distance 7.21 6.79 7.59Age 15.67 17.41 13.86Volume ratio 2.68 2.42 2.98Greening rate0.32 0.26 0.33Distance to the subway station 0.87 0.85 0.89distance to kindergarten 1.24 1.21 1.27distance to the mall 0.95 0.95 0.95Distance to the park1.22 0.99 1.062.3.the establishment the modelIn thi

36、s paper, we use the characteristic price method to analyze the house price, the following is the log linear model used in this paper: （1）Among them, X1i means the property of the District, including the age, the volume of residential, greening rate, etc. X2i represent distance variables, including d

37、istance to the subway station, distance to the nursery, distance to the mall and the distance to the park, Pschool is a dummy variable, used to indicate whether the district is the school district room.3.empirical analysis3.1.Beijing city house price analysisTable 3 is the result of the overall regr

38、ession of the District of all districts in the city. The regression includes square, hospital, park, subway station, high school, elementary school, and so on. The results show that in the 5% confidence level, the distance to the Beijing city center has a negative effect, while the subway station an

39、d primary school have a positive effect on prices; in the 10% confidence level, the park is statistically significant, and square, middle school and hospital statistics is not significant. It is worth noting that the hospital's coefficient means a negative effect in a certain sense, The reason w

40、hy the square is not significant, it may be that as a leisure place, such as food Square, shopping plaza , they can not provide a great attraction.Table 3 data analysis of Beijing CityParameterestimateStd.ErrorT valuePr(>|t|)distance to Tiananmen -0.4510.025-17.498< 2e-16*square in a mile0.007

41、0.0380.1860.852square in a mile-0.0420.040-1.0490.294Park in a mile0.0490.0351.3680.172Subway in a mile0.1610.0413.8650.000*Middle school in a mile-0.0310.036-0.8740.382key primary school in a mile0.1770.0553.1910.001*Constant term11.6730.094122.997< 2e-16*Signif. codes: 0 * 0.001 * 0.01 * 0.05 .

42、 0.1 1Multiple R-squared: 0.7013F-statistic: 120.8 on 7 and 360 DFIn fact, table 3 is the result of the regression results of the overall data of Beijing, it can only be a rough display of the overall situation. In fact, within the second ring even within the third ring, most of the key primary scho

43、ols located in the vicinity of several cities around the city, the  majority of the properties have advantages of hospital resources, one to many subway stations, many secondary schools and more primary schools. when consumers purchase a house,the subway, hospitals, secondary schools, prim

44、ary schools and other factors will be considered, resulting in a higher real estate prices. In order to further analyze the role of the subway station, hospital, park, middle school in promoting the rise in housing prices, we analyze the data of each link, to observe the information of each link. In

45、 fact, the design of the Beijing link can be seen as the Tiananmen as the center, so the link can also be seen as a symbol of the degree of regional prosperity.As shown in Table 4, the results show that near the park the price is 2.4% lower than estate far away from the park, and price is 9.5% highe

46、r when it is a school district room,it is 14.4% higher when the house is near a park from line 2 to line 3, and more than 22.4% higher when it is near the subway station, and  13.42% higher than other properties when it is a school district room. And it is 15.6% higher than the other properties

47、 when the house is near the park, 23.4% higher of school district room from line 3 to line 4. And so as line 5 to line6.Table 4 regression analysisParameterEstimateStd. Errort valuePr(>|t|) Line20.902 0.198 4.552 7.37e-06*Line30.781 0.348 2.242 0.025*Line40.790 0.181 4.348 1.81e-05* Line50.750 0.

48、094 7.920 3.30e-14*Line60.391 0.067 5.782 1.66e-08*Square0.008 0.040 0.199 0.842 Hospital-0.0570.043-1.323 0.186 Park0.0040.0660.069 0.944 Subway0.4520.110 4.105 5.05e-05*Middle school-0.0140.038-0.362 0.717 Primary school0.2360.1481.596 0.111Line2*park-0.0280.173-0.166 0.868 Line2*pschool-0.1410.20

49、3-0.696 0.486Line3*park0.1390.326 0.427 0.669Line3*subway-0.2280.184-1.240 0.215Line3*pschool-0.1020.193-0.530 0.596 Line4* park0.1510.1441.052 0.293 Line4*subway-0.3320.169-1.956 0.051*Line4*pschool-0.0040.177-0.0240.980Line5*park-0.0210.127-0.1670.867Line5*subway-0.2120.148-1.437 0.151 Line6*park0

50、.0110.0890.1330.894Line6*subway-0.3540.126-2.7950.005*Constant term9.937 0.046214.588< 2e-16*Signif. codes: 0 * 0.001 * 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1Multiple R-squared: 0.694 F-statistic: 34.02 on 23 and 345 DF3.2 four district house price analysisTo more accurate understanding of the various regions, we d

51、istinguish between Haidian and Chaoyang as a group, Dongcheng  and Xicheng  as a group, in fact, because the economic situation in Dongcheng District and Xicheng District is more similar, the same way Chaoyang District and Haidian District economic conditions. From the map, the center of B

52、eijing is indeed Tiananmen, but the northern part of Beijing's business is more prosperous than the southern part of Beijing,so Beijing city in this area is not symmetrical distribution.Table 5 four area analysisfour districtModelVariable()()()()School district room0.237777（ 12857.4）0.2684（

53、14347.056 ）0.229659（12504.3）0.248（13373.63）t-value9.438（ 9.799）9.859（ 10.314 ）8.455( 8.792)8.916（9.103）Characteristic oneNoYesNoYesCharacteristic twoNoNoYesYesDistanceYesNoYesYesTable 5 Analysis the school district housing premium of Chaoyang District, Haidian District, Dongcheng District,

54、 Xicheng District,  in the first column (I) , the distance to the Tiananmen area are considered  as control variables, and then we regress on the school district housing prices, results showed that the school district room are more than 23.8% higher than non school district housi

55、ng prices , the absolute price is 12867 yuan / square meter (after using 23.8% (12867) )premium; column(II) control the properity of school district room (volume rate, green rate, age and other factors), the parameters of the school district housing dummy variables become slightly higher, reaching 2

56、6.8% (14347); third column(III) control distance variables(to the distance properties near the subway, hospital, Park), it showed that the school district housing premium is 23% (12504); fourth column (IV) control  attributes and distance properties, the results show that the school district ho

57、using premium is 24.8% (13373).From a statistical point of view, in table 5, four sets of regression resultsis significant at the 99% confidence level , the first column (I) is used to control the residential area to Tiananmen distance to achieve control of other relevant factors, these factors include  bustling degreein the residential district  etc;