全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战GlobalAssetInflationand

1、全球资产膨胀与资产评估业的挑战Global Asset Inflation and Challenge for The Valuation Profession殷剑峰Yin Jianfeng中国社科院金融所，所长助理IFB of CASS, Assistant General Director危机前的全球资产膨胀Global Asset Inflation Before Crisis在这次全球危机前，在这次全球危机前，主要经济体金融资产主要经济体金融资产膨胀的速度远快于膨胀的速度远快于GDP增长率增长率Before the global crisis we are in, financial

2、assets in major developed countries grows at a striking higher speed than the GDP growth. Financial Asset/GDP金融发展越来越来脱离实体经济Financial Development Is Deviating from What Real Economy Really Needs以美国为例，在各类金融工具以美国为例，在各类金融工具（不含衍生品）中，为金融活（不含衍生品）中，为金融活动服务的比重不断上升，危机动服务的比重不断上升，危机前已经达到了前已经达到了50。For instance,

3、in total amount of financial products (excluding derivatives) of U.S., the ratio of products offering service for the financial industry increases quickly and reaches to 50% before crisis.Shares of financial products with different functions in total amount金融资产膨胀：房地产泡沫Asset Inflation: Housing Market

4、 Bubble以美国居民资产结构为例，随着房价攀升，从2000年开始，有形资产增长快于金融资产，其占比在2005年达到了近40。Because of housing price bubble, the ratio of tangible asset to total assets of U.S. household increases from 30% in 2000 to 40% in 2005.金融资产膨胀：金融股泡沫Asset Inflation: Financial Stock Bubble 受房地产市场的推动，美国金受房地产市场的推动，美国金融股票的市值与非金融股票市融股票的市值与非

5、金融股票市值的比重从值的比重从2001年的年的15上上升到升到2006年的年的45。Housing bubble contributes significant proceeds to U.S. financial corporations and boosts their stock prices. The ratio of market value of financial corporations to non-financial ones increases from 15% in 2001 to 45% in 2006. 金融资产膨胀：证券化泡沫Asset Inflation: Se

6、curitization Bubble美国 “私营”证券资产占比由80年代的0上升到2007年的12，资产总额达到了4万5千亿美元。In U.S, non-GSE securitization develops quickly since 1980s, and amounts to 12% of total securitization market in 2007.金融资产膨胀促成了美国居民的消费热潮Asset Inflation Promotes Consumption Boom in U.S. Household Sector. 美国居民部门的储蓄率从80年代初的10左右持续下降到200

7、6年的接近0；同时，储蓄额也从90年代的3500亿美元持续，在有些季度甚至是负储蓄。Saving rate of U.S. household decreased to nearly zero in 2006.金融资产膨胀刺激了银行消费信贷Asset Inflation Stimulates Bank Loan to Household.对居民的贷款和对居民的住宅按揭贷款占美国银行全部贷款的比重上升到2006年的67和55。In total U.S. bank loan, the ratio of household loan and mortgage increased to 67% and

8、 55% in 2006.经济增长储蓄率下降消费率提高资产价格上涨全球经济增长美元需求增加信贷便利性（美元创造）财富效应金融机构资产负债表改善以美国为中心的世界经济增长模式以美国为中心的世界经济增长模式 Global Economic Growth Model关于资产膨胀和危机的认识Conclusions about Asset Inflation and Crisis 美联储反周期的货币政策 Anti-Business Cycle style of Monetary Policy of FED 自由放任的金融监管政策 Laissez-Faire Financial Regulation Sy

9、stem 评级机构的责任：模型风险、道德风险 The Problems of Rating Agency: Model Risk, Moral Risk 共舞的中国股市和房市In China, Real Estate Market Is Dancing with Stock Market as well. 自2003年以来，中国的房屋销售价格、土地交易价格与股市市盈率的变化高度相关。In China, housing price and land price has a high correlation with PE ratio of stock market since 2003.中国似乎

10、也正在经历资产膨胀的过程China Is Undergoing an Underlying Process of Asset Inflation and Possible Asset Bubble.如果假设2002年底中国住房和土地的收益率为10，那么，今天则分别只有1.9和4.5。If we assume the returns in housing and land market are 10% at the end of 2002, then they are only 1.9 and 4.5 separately today. 唯一的区别：中国的高储蓄率The Only Differe

11、nce: Higher Saving Rate in China Comparing with U.S.前四大经济体的储蓄率和投资率（）前四大经济体的储蓄率和投资率（）美国美国日本日本德国德国中国中国储蓄储蓄率率投资投资率率储蓄储蓄率率投资投资率率储蓄储蓄率率投资投资率率储蓄储蓄率率投资投资率率1980年代年代18.420.331.929.820.321.934.935.21990年代年代17.419.029.928.322.622.139.837.82001200814.118.924.923.623.017.945.940.9政策建议Suggestions 关于宏观经济政策的建议：既要稳定，又不要泡沫。 Suggestion f