练习题及参考解答

1、第六章练习题及参考解答表是中国1985-2016年货物进出口贸易总额（|讨）与国内生产总值（卜）的数据。表中国进出口贸易总额和国内生产总值单位：亿元年份货物进出口贸易总额（Y）国内生产总值（X）年份货物进出口贸易总额（Y）国内生产总值（X）19852001198620021987200319882004198920051990200619912007199220081993200919942010199520111996201219972013199820141999201520002016资料来源：中国统计年鉴2017（1）建立货物进出口贸易总额的对数|l”t对国内生产总值的对数|loXt的

2、回归方程;（2）检测模型的自相关性；（3）采用广义差分法处理模型中的自相关问题。【练习题参考解答】回归结果DtWIWt'vlflkMLHYUiVhhILaifliSqura-a宝ehCosOkCMf*SKEraC-37K?W»WW554127LNK1DKW曰aMMoaMijfiurK$£Kfl«WI44IDdrpmrtatSE-iftflhraswffl®02004前E也1354?I2»itLAfltfctaiMnoifl<90314?Hnun-OtnHnotlflr021血才*KimwUHemn?tocranlnYt=-2,71

3、4792+1.152178lnXt(0316996)(0,027331)t二-8.5641142?15675R?二0,9834F二1777192DW二0,3069自相关检验 图示法图1、2与的散点图以及模型残差图由上面两个图可以发现模型残差存在惯性表现，很可能存在正自相关。 DW检验由回归结果可知DW统计量为，同时二32,k二i|,在的显著性水平下，L'-一1'-'，因而模型中存在正相关。BG检验阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为2阶，此时-芒壬昵漩已知讥g二鼠99,“2=225645#599，同时P值为，在的显著性水

4、平下拒绝原假设，即存在自相关。BrmscMkMAvBSenalCwrtlDnlLM命曲33"MF2544MProtoFajl)PT0®awSquarlil?DIMMomoD屮如岂耐时raESCDatvOirientTime18尉栩电IWSWIfi!MuAidabivnaiHwu32PSMEPMEMmoI400l«dMttO£W0WanableendantWBitdcIPro&CQ1MJ399I7JM30M97IKK-49l1»990016109-4933020D3»*1oitaaaa久祀丁们4o.oowR£f电1JU

5、T502O93M0534CI7H142Me*andeepen(tent口aifiE-ieR-BQUJItd90.dlt|s«nd«<tw020442QSEtfrtgirMifion«nena?w昭碗cniws134冀阳Sum翦r«naScnwancrutfim1sMnLog,iiktUoed25A1S33MannjrvQuMnncrfte*-12TM77L升Ltx2212imEJuroin-WmwiiHJi191B912表2BG检验2阶回归结果自相关补救 DV反算法求由哪二0一3069|，可知6二1-字二1拧竺二004655，可得广义差分方程:ln

6、Yt-0.84655lnYt-T=pT(1-0.84655)+pj(lnXt-0.84655lnXt-!)iutLAMScurvesDtitdinirlflTnw21XSflEpIlMMtoduM31褊时KtVEirrwnft.w*nasnCOfBOMlSfeQI&TWfrSISMlICPmC41U1M04iiMmwMOM黑f31V41TRMitreattitrommniiv10741HM0220954.3£Q1V44TMMiBfealHtHI-147D1H>9lMH14*4*1>4打特IfSdMW431IWI4H-f377HHB；LuqHtvMWdz<nf

7、lirHanrwQumciW-fU0T7ELMlProMFalaciiQOpDOOD表3广义差分结果-DV反算法DV检验：由回归结果可知DV统计量为，同时r-'1.,L-，在的显著性水平下,试-1一鮎；加m，即已消除自相关。BG佥验:阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为2阶，此时=J"涤庐已知卜Se2丿"99,n宀09碍66了<5.筋，同时P值为，在的显著性水平下不拒绝原假设,即已消除自相关。StflllCwtlVKnLMUMF-sJtrijstcOM帽?峠11気(41!»0430»137t

8、ProbPirMCN-Squv«f|QfiiGIt94271TiWEiguaBanOfwtdvKWniaiHf料E&CttethmTL»»tSu-ar»sDafteDlrineTlE«JMI23舸码pHriduiedDtsersiilms31ei*np*smiss-Hii惘皿laggedm削側z»f。vanMCelMeiMsvdEwerbSub»cPIB&CL-0MS55N-1)RESIDE)R£3IO(Q012911书017M3?曲叭se«21»07006C47S0111

9、71;7*1723omsaia0次堆巧p电3349SoeiaUHiR-sgaredWJEfifriHgrtsucmSumsQLiaredresiclUgPTOftlT-HBlIStlCjoeaom书onfleo01147000355444».»3M027V3U06»7Silean晦?endemi世SO驚附3世曲i起陆轉unftiEHi“n<SdrwaizcmnonHviwiAHnOunncrtterDufbnritientui各祐已询3.11C85T-1.39110-1-1.31ISM1BV5311表4广义差分BG验2阶回归结果则可知,C.153154094

10、6b50.998071最终模型为：I冷:-''："-*: 残差过原点回归求DependentVariable:EMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:20:48Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.E(-1)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodDurbin-Wa

11、tsonstatMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.表5残差序列过原点回归结果回归结果为：販=0.兀1,可知p=0.902706o进而得广义差分方程：lnK0-9027061-i二0.902706)*p2(lriXt0902706lnXt-i)»ntDependentVariable:*LNY(-1)Method:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:20:51Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobse

12、rvations:31afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C*LNX(-1)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticProb(F-statistic)stat表6广义差分-残差序列过原点回归结果DV检验：由回

13、归结果可知DV统计量为，同时二31,k1,在的显著性水平下,U=I、&.u.=:此，因而模型已不存在自相关。BG佥验：阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为2阶，此时匚处北上已知(2;=£99,点二。一矽615<599,同时P值为，在的显著性水平下不拒绝原假设，即已消除自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statisticObs*R-squaredProb.F(2,27)Prob.Chi-Square(2)TestEquation:DependentVariable:R

14、ESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:21:30Sample:19862016Includedobservations:31Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C*LNX(-1)RESID(-1)RESID(-2)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriter

15、ionSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonstatF-statisticProb(F-statistic)广义差分B(检验2阶回归结果则可知，Ri=:j2.9D2/Q6=-05356最终模型为：I汕;.德宾两步法求构建模型Pi(i)+%InXt-B沖InXti*PI叭-i+ujDependentVariable:LNYMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:21:43Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afterad

16、justmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.CLNXLNX(-1)LNY(-1)R-squaredMeandependentvarAdjustedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.ofregressioncriterionSumsquaredresidSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)德宾两步法回归结果由此可知，丨6o.895296，进而得广义差分方程

17、：lnt0.8?5296lnYt-i二i(1Q.*卩2(riXtQ吕旳却61心宅一J»小DependentVariable:*LNY(-1)Method:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:22:03Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C*LNX(-1)R-squaredMeandependentvarAdjustedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.

18、ofregressioncriterionSumsquaredresidSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)广义差分-德宾两步法回归结果DW检验：由回归结果可知DV统计量为，同时门二31,k=1,在的显著性水平下,二I-心=-、心,因而模型已不存在自相关。BG佥验：阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为2阶，此时=J旳鹽已知讥g=3®,nQ二5.99，同时P值为，在的显著性水平下不拒绝原假

19、设，即已消除自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statisticProb.F(2,27)Prob.Obs*R-squaredChi-Square(2)TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:22:16Sample:19862016Includedobservations:31Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-Stati

20、sticProb.C*LNX(-1)RESID(-I)RESID(-2)R-squaredMeandependentvarAdjustedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.ofregressioncriterionSumsquaredresidSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)广义差分BG验2阶回归结果-0021977则可知，Bi二-一帝赢二一°209696最终模型为:Yt=-0.209896+0.95

21、0493“科克兰奥科特迭代法DependentVariable:LNYMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:22:38Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsConvergenceachievedafter16iterationsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.CLNXAR(1)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidMeandependentvar

22、.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodF-statisticcriter.Durbin-WatsonstatProb(F-statistic).88InvertedARRoots科克兰奥科特迭代法回归结果DW检验：由回归结果可知DV统计量为，同时，在的显著性水平下,=1U匕.二-、代，因而模型已不存在自相关。BG佥验：阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶,AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为2阶，此时訂-富已知讥gW=鼠99,两？二Q87QQ9I<599,同时P值为，在

23、的显著性水平下不拒绝原假设，即已消除自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statisticProb.F(2,26)Prob.Obs*R-squaredChi-Square(2)TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/07/18Time:22:42Sample:19862016Includedobservations:31Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.

24、Errort-StatisticProb.CLNXAR(1)RESID(-1)RESID(-2)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.Durbin-WatsonstatF-statisticProb(F-statistic)BG检验2阶回归结果最终模型为：忆=-0.481744+09702561nXt表是中国1985-2016年国家财政

25、一般公共预算收入、各项税收、经济活动人口（劳动力）以及国民总收入的数据。表中国财政收入等数据年份一般公共预算收入（亿元）Y各项税收合计（亿元）X2经济活动人口（万人）X3国民总收入（亿元）X4198550112198651546198753060198854630198955707199065323199166091199266782199367468199468135199568855199669765199770800199872087199972791200073992200173,88420027449220037491120047529020057612020067631520077

26、6531200877046200977510201078388201178579201278894201379300201479690201580091201680694资料来源：中国统计年鉴2017(1) 建立国家财政一般公共预算收入与各项税收、经济活动人口及国民总收入的回归方程。(2) 检测模型是否存在自相关性，并修正模型。【练习题参考解答】回归结果(0026809)Yt=12915.73+0.&02396Xit-0.240367X3t+0030063X4l(3446508)(0.137414)(0.057824)|t二3”7184695.839260-4.156877298637

27、9R?二0,999309F=1349765DW二0.572280自相关检验图示法Van*CW.Jp.1*nnlIiiwtvF-pfsfCraDn?=fjrmp«frIt4,000-3,0002,000-DSP"ooUJ*t00辱J-LOGO9*®0»«-ZornQ3.D004i1iirrr4O0G-2.000twog1.0002.00Q3.0004.000tl-1)图1、2111!GraphUNJITLE3賊iridlleuWTITLEIkmMk迅与的散点图以及模型残差图由上面两个图可以发现模型残差存在惯性表现，很可能存在正自相关。DW检验由回

28、归结果可知DW统计量为，同时“二32,k二3,在的显著性水平下，二1-=-'，因而模型中存在正相关。 BG检验阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为2阶，此时蕊=?.影磁已知讥g=启八了382B0599,同时P值为，在的显著性水平下拒绝原假设，即存在自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statisticProb.F(2,26)Prob.Obs*R-squaredChi-Square(2)TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSq

29、uaresDate:02/08/18Time:01:19Sample:19852016Includedobservations:32Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.CX2X3X4RESID(-1)RESID(-2)R-squaredMeandependentvarAdjustedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.ofregressioncriterionSumsquaredresidSchwarzcriterionH

30、annan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)表2BG检验2阶回归结果自相关补救DV反算法求I|。57228C由测一&初邛月，可知，可得广义差分方程:Yt-0.71386Yt-i=Pi(1-0,71386)»02(X2t-Q.71386X2t-0*旳(XJt-0.71366X3t-o*(UOQt-0.7138Xdt-J+叭DependentVariable:*Y(-1)Method:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:01:41Sample(adj

31、usted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C*X2(-1)*X3(-1)*X4(-1)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodF-statisticMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.Durbin-WatsonstatPr

32、ob(F-statistic)表3广义差分结果-DV反算法DV检验：由回归结果可知DV统计量为，同时厂朗，F匚在的显著性水平下,U二I匚二-天,即已消除自相关。BG佥验：阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为5阶，此时二V汇势已知卜心5=*09,”威=13.391餐15.09|，同时P直为，在的显著性水平下不拒绝原假设，即已消除自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statisticProb.F(5,22)Prob.TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMeth

33、od:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:01:47Sample:19862016Includedobservations:31Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.*X2(-1)*X3(-1)*X4(-1)RESID(-1)RESID(-2)RESID(-3)RESID(-4)RESID(-5)R-squaredMeandependentvarAdjustedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.of

34、regressioncriterionSumsquaredresidSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)表4广义差分BG验2阶回归结果1937泗则可知，力二厂市莎二6771506955最终模型为：残差过原点回归求PDependentVariable:EMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:03:49Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradju

35、stmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.E(-1)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodDurbin-WatsonstatMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.表5残差序列过原点回归结果回归结果为=O723560一1，可知p=Q.723560。进而得广义差分方程：|¥t0.723560Yt_rI=&am

36、p;1(1-0,723560)4J2(X2t-0.723560X2l-i)+(XJt-0.723560X3t-i)+0-0.72356OXdt-!)iutDependentVariable:*Y(-1)Method:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:03:54Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C*X2(-1)*X3(-1)*X4(-1)R-squaredMeandependentvarAd

37、justedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.ofregressioncriterionSumsquaredresidSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)表6广义差分-残差序列过原点回归结果DV检验：由回归结果可知DW统计量为，同时二31,k二3，在的显著性水平下,L'-'一1I'-',因而模型已不存在自相关。BG佥验：阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减小到2阶，AIC及SIC

38、达到最小时，滞后阶数为5阶，此时帚匚W.已知X讥=1)09,禎2二13一81143<15.09，同时P值为，在的显著性水平下不拒绝原假设，即已消除自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statisticProb.F(5,22)Prob.Obs*R-squaredChi-Square(5)TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:03:58Sample:19862016Includedobservations:31Presamplemi

39、ssingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C*X2(-1)*X3(-1)*X4(-1)RESID(-1)RESID(-2)RESID(-3)RESID(-4)RESID(-5)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.Durb

40、in-WatsonProb(F-statistic)表7广义差分BG验2阶回归结果则可知,“1723.卩1-1-Q72356-"234.213$7最终模型为：-W紅门药?JR能川陆IC.P：广礁沢”工 德宾两步法求构建模型：Yt-Dt(1_P)*0必扛-U;pXt-1卜8jXjt-93P-1DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:04:07Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.E

41、rrort-StatisticProb.CX2X2(-1)X3X3(-1)X4X4(-1)Y(-1)R-squaredMeandependentvarAdjustedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.ofregressioncriterionSumsquaredresidSchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)表8德宾两步法回归结果由此可知，I©二0.6013“'，进而得广义差分方程：¥t-

42、0.6O1337Yt-i=-0,601337)+&3(X2t-0.601337X5l-i)+(X3t-0.60!337XJt-1)*0d(X4t-C.601337Xdt-i)iutDependentVariable:*Y(-1)Method:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:04:13Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C*X2(-1)*X3(-1)*X4(-1)R-squaredA

43、djustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodF-statisticMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.Durbin-WatsonstatProb(F-statistic)表9广义差分-德宾两步法回归结果DV检验：由回归结果可知DV统计量为，同时门二31,k二3,在的显著性水平下,L'-1<''，因而模型已不存在自相关。BG佥验：阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减

44、小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为2阶，此时=靂須號诡已知讥g=3一餌，“2二3.盹E605<5.99，同时P值为，在的显著性水平下不拒绝原假设，即已消除自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:Prob.TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:04:27Sample:19862016Includedobservations:31Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.Vari

45、ableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.*X2(-1)*X3(-1)*X4(-1)RESID(-1)RESID(-2)R-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofregressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodF-statisticMeandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.Durbin-WatsonstatProb(F-statistic)表9广义差分BG验2阶回归结果d-All5驰则可知，

46、务二1玄的二灵弼最终模型为：i応:冏一資矗込+a阳K1ZZ如-14?.：V.j!-n> 科克兰奥科特迭代法DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:04:59Sample(adjusted):19862016Includedobservations:31afteradjustmentsConvergenceachievedafter64iterationsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X2X3X4ARR-squaredAdjustedR-squared.ofre

47、gressionSumsquaredresidLoglikelihoodF-statisticProb(F-statistic)Meandependentvar.dependentvarAkaikeinfocriterionSchwarzcriterionHannan-Quinncriter.Durbin-Watsonstat.91InvertedARRoots表10科克兰奥科特迭代法回归结果DV检验：由回归结果可知DV统计量为，同时门二31,k二3，在的显著性水平下,L'-：.I<-，DV统计量落在不确定区域，继续进行BG佥验。BG佥验：阶数5432AICSIC滞后阶数从5阶减

48、小到2阶，AIC及SIC达到最小时，滞后阶数为5阶，此时鸵4舘常已知亦=15.09,禎？二20工33右9>1509，同时P值为，在的显著性水平下拒绝原假设，无法消除自相关。Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statisticProb.F(5,21)Prob.Obs*R-squaredChi-Square(5)TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:02/08/18Time:05:12Sample:19862016Includedobservations:31Pr

49、esamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.CX2X3X4ARRESID(-I)RESID(-2)RESID(-3)RESID(-4)RESID(-5)R-squaredMeandependentvarAdjustedR-squared.dependentvarAkaikeinfo.ofregressioncriterionSumsquaredresid8187225.SchwarzcriterionHannan-QuinnLoglikelihoodcriter.

50、Durbin-WatsonF-statisticstatProb(F-statistic)表11BG检验2阶回归结果综上所述，科克兰奥科特迭代法无法修正自相关。一般来讲，实际收入对于货币需求具有正向的影响，而利率则会抑制货币需求。若以货币供应量中的准货币表示货币余额，以国内生产总值（GDP表示实际收入，以一年期存款的基准利率（R）表示持有货币的成本，并取得了19902015年中国的准货币、国内生产总值、消费者价格指数、一年期存款基准利率的数据，见表。表中国19902015年准货币等数据年份准货币（亿元）国内生产总值GDP（亿元）消费者价格指数CPI一年期存款基准利率R199019911992199319941995199619971998199