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1、Global Research 4 March 2019North America Alternative Energy Expert Call: Climate change w/ U.S. EPA; slide deck & transcriptWe hosted a call with the U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWe hosted a call with Jeremy Martinich, Climate Scientist at the U.S. EPA. On the call we discussed key findings

2、from the Environmental Protection Agencys (EPA) 4th National Climate Assessment. Completed in November 2018, the assessment is a comprehensive and authoritative report on climate change and its impacts in the United States. The call was part of our ongoing UBS Expert Series conference calls which ai

3、m to deepen clients understanding of an industry or topic through presentations by and Q&A with industry experts.Key takeaways from the presentationThe views expressed below are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of UBS.Based on the EPAs research, there is compelling evidence

4、that the average global temperature is higher and rising. Additionally, this warming trend is explained by human activities.Responses to climate change are 2-pronged: 1) mitigation efforts to reduce carbon emissions and 2) adaptation to actual climate change impacts (i.e. raising level of roadways,

5、rebuilding dunes). Current mitigation efforts are not enough to offset the projected magnitude of climate change over the next century.Energy sector impacts of climate change include a significant increase in cooling degree days and declining heating degree days. Net effect expected to drive increas

6、ing energy demand growth, up to 5-7% by the end of the century. The EPA estimates up to $9bn in annual economic damages in 2090 due to changes in electric supply and demand.Slide deck and transcript enclosedIn this note we republish the slide deck from the call, courtesy of Jeremy Martinich and the

7、U.S. EPA. A transcript from our call follows the slide deck.EquitiesNorth AmericaUtilitiesJon Windham, CFAAnalyst +1-617-478-4711Daniel Ford, CFAAnalyst +1-212-713-2224William Grippin, CFAAnalyst +1-617-478 4740This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED D

8、ISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 51. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single

9、 factor in making their investment decision.Fourth NationalClimate AssessmentVolume II MitH, and JUbpfE 0mRead and download the report atFigure 5: Slide 5NCA4 Vol II:Impacts, Risks, & Adaptation in the U.S.Released Nov 23, 2018Policy relevant, but not policy prescriptivePlaces a strong emphasis on r

10、egional informationQuantifies impacts in economic termsIntegrates international considerationsAssesses a range of potential impacts, helping decision makers better identify risks that could be avoided or reducedUses case studies to provide additional context and to showcase community success stories

11、Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 6: Slide 6Report Development ProcessMultiple points of federal review and decision (orange icons) were present throughout the process.In addition, public engagement (blue icons) was a cornerstone of the NCA4 development process.Authors used these fe

12、edback mechanisms to inform their chapters development (block icons).O1| MCAl Fdmt fiacong Conmitepit m ioe a Kttc rntiw111QK0OmaboiandOcvdapmMSource: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyiSU mrfliEArtiOrOtr W15j即&6珈XcW Order DuftIBi %RHE-Sccsrd CMv Osfl17) Mhers Tbrd OrdrDoftXiAuHn develop FoiffrOdf

13、tfOesrt 21)Fntf Fade，Kncf anc ctonraa of RbiW Cmm baftYBU sratfw (mi W E hOO mm TSU dewcollCAMtiMB20忖03-41 mi704-R口 602-03 20*4 (XM14161104 dAutiu SdecilM MdDmlopmMHiMcfMFZAt|Df1ClNtar 9gnfOitfltntni Ayanty HaMowNetiew厢ZcdctEAetetM* CMpW( IMA WKM17) Aj 廿8 e setectodfor chMtef Manw3 AjFE 期 Chlpttr0UV

14、4倘SBMN CWTltlW BMNNt0)4.frcc dTMfcped m3k:up Aotomw rt 6oercM Gn7nBcrwg and HotHant nctwt i/lhrd Onor Craft2SiOoreKhn42mtmnAorFigure 7: Slide 7Table of ContentsOverviewOur Changing ClimateNational TopicsWaterEnergy Supply, Delivery and DemandLand Cover and Land-Use ChangeForestsEcosystems, Ecosystem

15、 Services, and BiodiversityCoastal EffectsOceans and Marine ResourcesAgriculture and Rural CommunitiesBuilt Environment Urban Systems, and CitiesTransportationAir QualityHuman HealthTribes and Indigenous PeoplesClimate Effects on U.S. International InterestsSector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, a

16、nd Complex SystemsRegional ChaptersNortheastSoutheastU.S. CaribbeanMidwestNorthern Great PlainsSouthern Great PlainsNorthwestSouthwestAlaskaHawai i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific IslandsResponseReducing Risks Through Adaptation ActionsReducing Risks Through Emissions MitigationVI. AppendicesProcessInfo

17、rmation Quality ActData Tools and ScenariosInternationalFrequently Asked QuestionsSource: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 8: Slide 8Ch. 1 | OverviewOur Changing Climate:Observations and CausesObservations collected around the world provide significant, clear, and compelling evidence that

18、global average temperature is much higher, and is rising more rapidly, than anything modern civilization has experienced.The warming trend observed over the past century can only be explained by the effects that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, have had on the climate.Sour

19、ce: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 9: Slide 9Ch. 1 I OverviewObserved Change U8 MMz IW- 一g 皿 g ttm m xno9Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyCh. 1 | OverviewFigure 10: Slide 10Attribution of Change(u.0) Eon 8U9JBU5oJaBJ9dE9-10Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 11:

20、 Slide 11Ch. 1 I OverviewProjected Change:Temperature & PrecipitationLaie 21sl Century, Hgher Scenario (RCP8 5)Laie 21sl Century, Hgher Scenario (RCP8 5)Late 21st CenturyLate 21st CenturyChange in Temperature (F)Areas with red dots show where projected changes ace largecompared to natural variations

21、; areas that are hatched showwhere changes are small and relatively insignificant.Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencySlide 12Ch. 1 | OverviewProjected Change:Sea Level Rise (in 2100 vs. 2000)Lower Scenario (RCP4.5)Higher Scenario (RCP8.5)Relative Sea Level Change (feet-6-4-20246Thermal Expa

22、nsion + Land-Based Ice Melt + Vertical Land Movement + Ocean Circulation.USGCRP Scenario Products: NCA4 Vol. I (CSSR), Ch. 12: 12Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencySlide 13Air QualityProjected Changes in Summer Season OzoneLower Scenario (RCP4.5)Higher Scenario (RCP8 5)2090Change m Oafone C

23、oncentration (parts per billion.-3-2-1012345Key MessagesIncreasing Risks from Air PollutionIncreasing Impacts of WildfiresIncreases in Airborne Allergen ExposureCo-Benefits of Greenhouse Gas MitigationChange in summer averages of the maximum daily 8-hour ozone concentration (as compared to the 1995-

24、2005 average). Summertime ozone is projected to change non-uniformfy across the United States baed on multiyear simulations from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Source: adapted from EPA 2017.13Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 14: Slide 14Ch. 12 | Transp

25、ortationTransportationFig. 12.2: Annual Vehicle- Hours of Delay Due to High Tide FloodingThe figure shows annual vehicle-hours of delay for major roads (principal arterials, minor arterials, and major collectors) due to high tide flooding by state, year, and sea level rise scenario (from Sweet et al

26、. 2017). Years are shown using decadal average (10-year) values (that is, 2020 is 2016-2025), except 2100, which is a 5-year average (2096-2100). One vehicle-hour of delay is equivalent to one vehicle delayed for one hour. Source: Jacobs et al. 2018,以 Figure 3, reproduced with permission of the Tran

27、sportation Research Board.Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyMarch Conference ScheduleAll calls hosted at 11am ETMar 5: Energy Leaders: Utility scale zinc hybrid battery storage w/ Eos: RegisterMar 8: Energy Expert: Economic of zero-energy homes w/ RMI: RegisterMar 14: Management Call: Sola

28、redge (SEDG) senior management: RegisterMar 15: Energy Expert: Airline industry climate change impacts w/ IATA: RegisterMar 20: Energy Leaders: The market for EV fast charging w/ EVgo: RegisterMar 21: Energy Leaders: Lithium ion smart energy storage w/ NECES: RegisterMar 22: Energy Expert Transactiv

29、e energy systems w/ SEPA: RegisterMar 28: Management: Hannon Armstrong (HASI) senior management: RegisterMar 29: Energy Leaders: Maximizing EV charging returns w/ eCarUp: RegisterMarch Conference Call DetailsEmerging Energy Leaders: Utility-scale zinc hybrid cathode battery storage. Tuesday, March 5

30、, 2019 11:00AM ET w/ Eos Energy Storage. On the call we will discuss Eoss patented zinc hybrid cathode battery technology which offers scalable 100% depth of discharge 4-hour duration storage. Eos technology can provide renewable energy time-shift potentially driving higher renewable penetration rat

31、es. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Expert: The economics of zero-energy homes. Friday, March 8, 2019 11:00AM ET w/ Rocky Mountain Institute. On the call we will discuss key findings from RMIs recent report: The Economics of Zero-Energy Homes which demonstrates that th

32、e cost increase to build a zero-energy or zeroenergy ready home is modest and highlights methods builders and policymakers can use to drive increased market penetration. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Management Call: Solaredge. Thursday, March 14,2019 11:00AM ET. On the cal

33、l we will have Solaredge CFO Ronen Faier. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Expert: Airline industry impacts of climate change. Friday, March 15,2019 11:00AM ET w/The International Air Transport Association (IATA). On the call we will discuss the IATAs work around the ai

34、rline industrys approach to address aircraft CO2 emissions trends in the context of climate change. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Emerging Energy Leaders: The market for EV fast charging. Wednesday, March 20, 2019 11:00AM ET w/ EVgo. On the call we will discuss the market f

35、or EV fast charging including EVgos network of over 1,050 public DC fast charging stations. EVgo is the largest public DC fast charging network in the U.S. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Emerging Energy Leaders: Lithium ion smart energy storage for the grid.Thursday, March 2

36、1, 2019 11:00AM ET w/ NEC Energy Storage. OnSlide 15Ch. 19 | SoutheastOutdoor LaborPwcent Change in Hours Worked65% S -6% -4.9% to -4% I 39% to -3%J -2.9% to -2%L j-1 9%to -1% J-0.9% to 0%MH 0.1% to 1 5%Fig. 19.21: Projected Changes in Hours WorkedEstimates represent a change in hours worked as comp

37、ared to a 2003-2007 average baseline for high-risk industries only. Source: EPA 2017声Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencySlide 16Coral ReefsCoral ReefsFig. 1.14: Severe Coral Bleaching Projected for Hawaii and the U.S.- Affiliated Pacific IslandsThe figure shows the years when severe coral b

38、leaching is projected to occur annually in the Hawaii and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands region under a higher scenario (RCP8.5). Darker colors indicate earlier projected onset of coral bleaching. Under projected warming of approximately 0.5F per decade, all nearshore coral reefs in the region will

39、 experience annual bleaching before 2050. From Figure 27.10, Ch. 27: Hawaii & Pacific Islands (Source: NOAA).Ch. 1 | Overview16Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 17: Slide 17LotxxCh. 29 | Reducing Risks Through Emissions Mitigationg然等nXWUydqrRC 图加3gq ovJod under W3Mo( Lalit/Coasral P

40、roprrry siifiayratiiHd Float ng SBgrEiwtnctty aw (ipmwii swyrAnri Ccxsncnw Zmy h 30*3SecioArwuai daniBM undttunderHC75(j bar$15609fnxereTerrceoij-t MoraaltrSUiB5BM15110022| Ar Quri*,SMB如FUdCfeCS22B酒| Cttnc? 5upn4ndDenirjSB| tiune Aoodnf61 uman ginay对刈wIU3”$SBJSM1 3.13 a3、怕 tMlevrusS3B3Mt$2Bw斗nefcea$

41、1B3aid. irwlB,MaimU A/igkiomKS1WMA4)ki l-fr$trt Adaptation was shown to reduce overall damages n sectors identified with the diamond symbol but was n directly Fodeied in, or relevant to,剖 sectors. Asterisks denote sectors wfth annual damages that may not be visible at the given scale. On by one impa

42、ct (wRdfire| shg： very sm! positive effects, owing to projected andscape-zca-c sKrfts to vegetation with longer fire return intervals (see Ch. 6： Forests for a discussion on the weight of evidence regarding projections of future wildfire actn/rty). The online verzioc of thN fgum Indudes value ranges

43、 for cumbers in the table. Due to space constraints. the rayet ire cot iedudec here. Source: adapted from EPA 20J7：17Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 18: Slide 18Ch. 29 | Reducing Risks Through Emissions MitigationGlobal Carbon Emissions 30Direct Damage to U.S. Economy5 0 5 0 5 02

44、2 11(320)S8-SSE山 cop-5 _*+ISSOL5 0 5 0 5 02 2 11(320)S8-SSE山 cop-5 _*+ISSOLHigher Scenario (RCP8.5)Lower Scenano |RCP4.5)Even Lower Scenano (RCP2.6) Observedo Higher Scenano (RCP8 5) Lower Scenario (RCP4 5)420864200111 - Isnpajd OSEOO SSOJOS n*81o901 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Temperature Chan

45、ge (F)Estimates of Direct Economic Damage from Temperature ChangeThe teft 6产 2hows tfie ooserec and protected n fossil fuel end industriz enisaom of COfrom human actvitou (emissions trwn land-use Change do not appear on the figure; *hr r the RCPs thee e-nisaons are-iess than 1 GtC xr year by 2020and

46、 fBl thereafterj. The rit graoh shws nrojeEbon: of drect Can65c to g current U5. economy for 311 impact sectors gjrculture, cri-ne. coasts, energy, mm mortalrt. and -aoor! as a function D giooti average temperature ctiare ireoresentea 0: average for 2380-2099 coiroered to 1980-20i0|. Compared to RCB

47、.3, tower temperatures due to rr tigobcrj under ether of tut Jcmer enanos (RCF2.6 or RCP4.3j svsnsctairy reduce damages /aotti to g U.S. economy wfitie also narrowir; the uncertMy in potental adverse impacts. Dot-rtvden ina-cate the icertaintY m directdamages in 2090 (average of 2080- deriM Ef munip

48、ie comainBticns of dimate fn&deis and *ororg xenarios (dm, median: 5油 Ine, inner 66、creo&te interval： tnin line, inner 90%).The gray shaoee vee represents the 90S cocience interB in 5e 1ft (black line) to the damage estimates. Damage estinetes onty capture ocaptsbon to the extent that populstiors em

49、picyed them ir tr-e htswricaJ aenoa. Sourtsx. atioptmWu900ios et of. 201* 网Hj oaactpaHsiang e ol 201antf eogtsns *itnofAnw)con ocAcdog产AflVarxepiflnt ofSc/anca.18Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 19: Slide 19Interconnected SystemsRalMce influaoxosUftisa 田Oimau-RolaMOIrfiutnco*PopUsb

50、onDrrwntCBLbMCcw*Sectors are interacting and interdependent through physical, social, institutional, environmental, and economic linkages.These sectors and the interactions among them are affected by a range of climate-related and non-climate influences.ExampleWildfire chars California hillsideAtmos

51、pheric river dumps heavy rainRainfall induces a landslideLandslide cuts off roadwaysServices and economic activity are disrupted19Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 20: Slide 20Ch. 1 | OverviewGr*af Ramv20Fig. 1.1: Americans Respond to the Impacts of Climate ChangeThis map shows clim

52、ate-related impacts that have occurred in each region since the Third National Climate Assessment in 2014 and response actions that are helping the region address related risks and costs. These examples are illustrative; they are not indicative of which impact is most significant in each region or w

53、hich response action might be most effective. Source: NCA4 Regional Chapters.Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 21: Slide 21Ch. 29 | Reducing Risks Through Emissions MitigationReducing Risks:Through Emissions Mitigation15-7B-1213-if 12s15-7B-1213-if 12sSource: EPAOl30 ItfallcT 3m 30Q

54、 GHG|7) rUfrt*iteCC&NudMr |4i lcsrspCQjGHGi酊ForMy&Und3i 网Source: Americas Pledge 2017Sub-national mitigation-related activities are growing across all sectors of the economyThe magnitude and rate of these activities (both domestically and abroad) do not yet approach the scale needed to avoid the wor

55、st impacts21Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyFigure 22: Slide 22CLIMATE SCIENCESPECIAL REPORTThank you.03Fourth National Climate AssessmentRead and download the reports at:The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author, and donot necessarily represent those of the USEPA.

56、Source: U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWe present below a transcript of our recent call with Jeremy Martinich with theU.S. EPA. We have edited the transcript below for clarity. Minor grammatical changes that do not impact the meaning of content have been applied. The opinions expressed by Jerem

57、y herein do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this information or any part thereof

58、.UBSModerator: Jon WindhamFebruary 26, 201911:00 AM ETJonWelcome, everybody, to our latest UBS Energy ExpertCall Series. This is Jon Windham. I head up Alternative Energy and Environmental Services Equity Research here at UBS. Fm also joined today from UBS by Julie Hudson, whos the Head of Global ES

59、G and Sustainability Research.On the call today well be discussing the key findings from the Environmental Protection Agencys Fourth National Climate Assessment, which was completed in November of 2018. We have with us from the EPA, Jeremy Martinich, who is a climate scientist at the US EPA.Before w

60、e get started, just a few logistics. There were slides to accompany todays discussion. They were distributed via email to preregistered participants from me about 30 minutes ago. If you need a copy, you can email either myself or Will Grippin. Wills email address is .Second, the format of todays cal