碳达峰碳中和技术路径及实践探讨

1、Transitionroadmap ano engineering qrnctlceatowards carbon qeak and csrkonneutrslltyDr. Yinbiao SHU2021814BAugust 14, 20213ozo6sB . g7sRa#e A8 : 9Bezo3ognSept. ZO2O. 7Mth UN General Assembly: China atms to bring carboncmlasfons to a paak by 2030, and achieve czzbon nautraFny by 2060.3020+2 , :.PI. 02

2、 , IIR1.&ig319,1750dt , gggi g $t2 1 00 fZ ,jj139t.The scale ofcarbon emissions is large. China is the worlds largest energy producer and consumer. In 2020, the carbon emissions of the power section is 9.9 billion tons. accounting for 3I96 of the global emission. Since 1750, the carbon emissions of

3、the energy sectiDiS has been 2E0 billion tons, accounting for I3f6 of the totalEIS5IOhO6PZIkfI&BB . B&RRB ,.China is in developingstage of industriaIizadon, the tasL of economic development iG onerous, and the power requirement will stillbe growing.Sauce British Petroleum ( BP)jgAEjGlobal Carbon Pro

4、jectSourceoba CarboProjectOB3I.1A40*JB9B , YI*57o8, Ae.B&40BE6 , BBO6306OfJ.Time Limited. From carbou peak to carbon neutrality, the EU used around 70 years,when the USA and Japan used about 40 years, but China only has 30 years.H120804020n 2030. China acllieve c, rbon peakB62008fIlgIn 2008. Japan a

5、chieve corbon01970198019902000201020202030204020502060e PNBBB.tBfi&Q.t8PJBN.zozo8, sBxEu6xka 1s.s9 , axa6sas36 , saazs7%.PBR9AiS93o1BM.Heavy industrial structure , coal as principle energy structure, low energy utilization efficiency. In 2020, Chinas non-fossil energy accounted for 15.99 of the tota

6、l energy consumption, c lean energy generation accounted for 369f, coal consumption accounted for 5796, higher than the world average by 309.03o96 . GItPa41o&C7 , PBr.7. &Br92.9, In 2019, Chinas energy consumption per unit of GDP is 410g standard coal/$, which is 1.7 times the world average and 2.9

7、times the average of developed countries.Coatrtrua gas Nazi-fossilfuelSource:National Bureau of StatisticsUSAWorSource World Bank2.4 (I , Low ca rbon technology challenges. The EU is actively implementing the 1.5C temperature rise target, and continues to make eHorts in offshore wind power. hydrogen

8、 energy utilization, circular economy. intelligent transportation, electric vehicles and other technology areas.D . AiszzO6b&IB888i640wa-k8s:kBRccsagAeZsd10 ( 9B2 ) .The US promotes the development of clean energy seurces and low-carbon technology, to guide the newindustrial transformation and upgra

9、ding. Currently, the USA has completed 1g large-scale CCS projects with an annual global COC capture capacity of 400,000 tons or more (when China has only finished 2).The comparison in advanced low-carbon technology between domestic and foreign level2410O0M29.5%Demons ra on opera on ol IdMW More win

10、d turb ne and z2MW oflh850N#3High-powered wow-nosi onshore And2-?jT13I)g1?jVfERKey role of power industryOB2IMk.#BkiZAC , BBfi#RB9BBBzo3oBBR#. figABA ,p,As industrialization and urbanization. the total energy consumption in China will reach iH peak around 2030. However, after that, the electricity d

11、emand will continue to grow.power industry should not only realize the clean alternative, but also realize the Electricity substitution in the energy consumption side, and undertake the energy consumption and carbon emission transferred from industry, construction, transportation and other fields, s

12、o as to serve the whole society to reduce carbon emission.The development goals of economy and power1 billion7CE49.B58100Pr40%27%202020305hae of electricity in final consumption30%70X80%206093%Sriare of non fossil fuel consumption3-M6i&G&EfiC&M?ii&Goal of power industry transition is to be a zero-ca

13、rbon electricity systemORB.6R.GI#BOBG&BBBIBidBt8Mh&B . &B.BBBJzo3s6B9iOMR?i6B , 1BA8J6A6&/&Bk6N%6AaisfiB9. s h Norway,Sweden, SwiQerland and Iceland have already achieved or are close to zero-carbon electricity system, whilethe USA and the UK have proposed to achieve a zero-carbon electricity system

14、 by 2035, and it is still uncertain whether to retain fossil energy generatio rom low carbon to zero carbon.gDCCUS . Domestic power system has gone from deep decarbonisation to zero carbon, and it is recommended that a certain scale of thermal power be retained, with less than 109a of generation cap

15、acity, and that the carbon emissions generated can be removed through CCUS technology.Ensure o stable supply, to solve the tong periodand seasonal Ructuations problem by new energy4-J3AB&ttBf12fi&GA. OR&.R&E1BtLow-carbon transition of power system goes through three phases: carbon peak, deedecarboni

16、zationand zero carbonIN. BA. AB6IBB4kRRttB2 , #KSI88 f NB4.sxG6 1 , fiIMZB99B:48BAB. 88IB46GBJ173TB , 6M6QRB288 , I#.tgs&gaZBIzsx. 7x, 4#. 1g6ga6BJZaz. sx.Phase 7: Carbon Peak ( 2021-ZO30 ) :Carbon emissions from the power system enter the peak plateauperiod around 2028. The electrification process

17、in industry, building and transportation is rapidly advancing, and electricity demand continues to grow fat a growth rate of about 4.SX), with all new electricity demand met by clean energy. The installed capacity of new energy reaches L.7 billion kW, and the proportion of power generation rises to

18、289s, while hydroelectric and nuclear power generation reaches L3% and 796, and coal and gas power generation is 42ft and 9% respectively.Zer Phase III105X-Pt& - Z&ittR& ( 2o3i-2oso& CB&Rl&E4*t&B&ifiTG . E1.48E6 i.mtb#B*J443Ta, Bsa6t5Rss3B, r7M.Osssas2tl3B.14% , .fggG1396,79f,Phase II: Deep decarbon

19、isation (2031-2050): The carbon emissions from power system drops by 909f during this time, while the CCUS is partial using, and the power system will approach deep decarbonisation stage. The growth of electricity demand slows down (about 1.496). The capacity of new energy reaches 4.4 billion kW, wi

20、th new energy power generation rising to 539f, including hydropower (1396) and nuclear power (149f), when the coal and gas power generation falling to 1396 and 790 seperately.,e-ea II45p4035302520I I “=Phasell83020352042D454 2O+80iPhase III *taOBEBg : O# ( 3051-30608): #Z#01A#6E2O#8. R98DJs*3Ta, sat

21、5fiss*, hs.asssaaais.z6 , ccusNKPPA , fib. 9b6#B&7. 3.0 Phase 3: Zero Carbon (2051-2o6o):The power system developed from deep decarbonization tozero carbon power system. The installed capacity of new energy reached 5.2 billion kilowatts, the share of power generation rose to 6E96, hydropower and nuc

22、lear power generation reached 13% and I6K, thescale of CCUS further expanded, and coal and gas power generation dropped to 79f and 396.4030 ,2SO151070XPhase III*2052060&2022025& 203T- 203SW 2040 204SP20:p.- .a20Htoaf68 nuclear hydropower windContentsSti dy ort ca rbon perk and carbon neutrality in p

23、ower sectorLow carbon industry: foundation of technology and exploration of praticeThe key technology path of carbon peak and carbon neutrality: take four transformations (decarbonization, electrification, digitalization, standardization) as the direction, strengthen two supports (scientific and tec

24、hnological innovation support, policy mechanism support), and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.,.Scientific and aechnological innovatien supportPolicy mechanisms supportISb-DecarbonizationThe carbon emission in energy producer side is mainly from fossil fuel burningr(zwher

25、e :EquivalentEmission Factor =Z”i - inuse Enery Consumptioni,Emi.Psion Factor Total fossil fuel Consumption16 , $ f . Reduce carbon emissions from the producer side. Replace fossil energy fuels by non-fossil energy cauroes . use rts raw material properties. and increase the share of non-fossil energ

26、y consumption.o 8R*IB5RW&GE,NWlRf62l9WV.GB4O%.BfRiEwBRszGIncrease the capacity and power generation of clean energy , 40 years later, new energy sourceswill replace fossil fuel as tbe main fuel souroe. Its installation capacity will approach S.2 billion kW.The current carbon emissions by industry is

27、 upto k3 billion tons. To reduce the emissions, low- carbon raw materials should be used to instead of high-cerbon materials. se that the emission will drop to less tkan 300 million tons in 2060.Consumption of fosst) energy used as fciatMfg : fZg$lggg unijz 0.1. million TCG9.5202061.32060$b 1.9 b. B

28、aced on notional conditions. find out a special path with Chinese characteristics. According to the report of Chinese Meteorological Administration, the exploltabie domestic on-shore wind energy over 70 metors high is more than 5 billion kW, when the solar energy resources amounted to 2.9 trillion k

29、W.MC?%?I.2?IfiBE.A9?*pKABRM8H&BRN2oTs.I%W&RfiRAKVigorously develop onshore new energy. Adhere to both centralized and distributed modes, build large bases in the north and the west to achieve large-scale development, intelligent operation and maintenance, intensive operation. East and central distri

30、buted new energy potential development of more than 2 billion kW, and actively develop decentralized wind power and distributed photovoltaic.Accelerate the development of offshore wind power. Use the 500 million kW of exploitable volume of Chinas eastern seas, accelerate the layout of offshore deep

31、water, and gradually develop in the direction of distant seas.- JsVBz.sfi B . s-snsIuhfaBB.7OJt&fR5ZT#iEastern coastline 18,000 km. 5-50 mwater depth range an be developed.BtsR6ts. BBassKaBcyR6as.s3YE. 8o%6If6hsSVBasABIa. BActively develop hydropower. Domestic technical exploitable hydropewer resour

32、ces is amount 690 million kW. 8096 undeveloped hydrepower is in the Southwest. Strengthen tha overall planning of the basin, through the hydropower/wind/photovoItics complementary development, to create successor energy base for the west-east power transmission program.Actively and orderly develop n

33、uclear power. Under the premise of ensuring the safety of active and orderly development of nuclear power, focusing on the development of coastal nuclear power, timely ctart inland nuclear power projects.QingljatM mklign kWthan1million kWcanzas 4IilIr kWThe compIeqj,gtary202-ElectrificationCarbon em

34、ission in the customer side is mainly from non-electricity energy consumptionCarbon Emission in Customer side = end-use energy consumption x(1- electrification rate) x equivalentemission factor where :Equivalent EmissionFactor =ZiFnJuse Enery Consumpti n x i,Emission Factor Total Non ElCctFiCiy Cons

35、umption. Reduce Carbon emission from customer side. satisfy energy requirements in sectors of Industry, Construction and Transportation with the clean electricity. It s estimated that to 2060, 9S% non-fossil anargy would be replaced by electricity, and the percent of the electricity over all and-usa

36、 energy consumption would be more than 70%.IkIndustryConstructionTransportationUnit 0.1 Billion TCEHydrogengg/ others22g#a7JRB8.etj2o3oY , M1kMAfi11Bfi. , SBcDPtRTR3 2Bfi,. : 2o3z-zoso6 , #fik8M.kfiz?B6. , SBsci&t6TM4.z4Bfi.,Improve energy efficiency. The electrification rate increasing by 196 will

37、lead to decreasing in energyconsumption per unit of GDP by 3.29a in 2030 and by 4.19$ in 2060.6#8tg4&.BB*#so6. #18M1Rz4-BC, SBGD#8t#fi5.6% ; 2031-2060a ,Q1? ,GDP9.5,Reducecarbon emission intensity. The electrification rate increasing by 1% will lead to reduceing in carbonemissions per unit of GDP by

38、 5.6f6 in 2030 and by 9.5K in 2060.Energy fficiencyElectric boilerBuilding heatingaCaokingTransportation300-50096Gas-fired boiler&Coal-fired botlers70%9095riElectric Vehictes90%”Vehicles40% 50carbon emlsslon IntensltyDRIIt. BB. D1kST.I6B , #*62zRB8B , 6#84t3s B. Mfift926+I.,04B4tIItM8Bft . 6RMIPf8 .

39、 BPMB.MB1P.%B8.s/2030, 2060 E , 13kzgJ gI3496, 70%. Upgrade electrification level in industay, building s and transportation. !n industry sector,Currently, the industrial energy consumption is 2.1 billion TCE, annual carbon emissions is 3.3 billion tons and electrification rate is 2690. Accelerating

40、 electrification in industry and developing electric furnace steelmaking, electric boilers, electric kilns, heat pumps, etc, can lead industry to carbon peak and carbon neturility. It is expected that the industrial electrification rate will reach 3496 and 7096 in 2030 and 2060 respectively.Long Ozo

41、cess SteelCarbon amfsdon24GKB!td , G%67.s384. BM?It9B , b1ftfi-4ox,tItiiIi8BB.h.RiI6BJ6RM. Bi2030. 2060 , M&*tRfi&1BBSOB. 804, in Building sector, energy consumption is 750 million TCE, annual carbon emissions is 900 million tons, eiectrification rate appraaches 40J6. Promoting the electrification o

42、f building heating, hot water supply and cooking, accelerating the development of distributed energy and energy storage systems on rooftops and walls, promoting light storage and direct soft buildings, and achieving adjustable and flexiblepower generation aud consumption can accelerate building deca

43、rbonization. tt is expected that the electrification rate of buildings will reach S096 and 809 in 2030 and 2060 respectively.259B . BB4.9ZRtb . #8t9K , gfifIITB49,B6RkBfi. #%RA3I. #ABB9. ROEg. 4BI7IMB. B!203O. 2060 . 9&) &3.O99, 5096. In transportation sector, the energy consumption is 490 million T

44、CE, annual carbon emissions are 900 million tons, and the electrification rate is less than 4K. For decarbonization in transportation, the develDpment should focus on technological progress of electric vehicles, electrified railroads, urban rail transit, port shore power and airport bridge power. It

45、 is expected that the electrification rate of transportation will increase to 10% and 50K in 2030 and 2060 respectively.3-DigitalizationOpen and SharedDigital empowerment of next generation power system. The shape of the power system is undergoing big changes, its main body from fossil energy to new

46、 energies, significantly increase of decentralization. randomness, and volatility, due to being connected by a large amount of diversified of loads inclusive of electric vehicles, energy storage facilities, etc, as well as distributed, micro-grids. It must rely on digital empowerment to build up a n

47、ew power system which is “comprehensively interconnected. intelligent and interactive. flexible, secure and controllable. open and shared .comprehensivelyinterconnectedelligent anhteractiveIfl, fiI. Fundamentally change the way of energy allocation. use sc, big data. cloud computing, artificial inte

48、lligence and other modern information technologies to promote the level of smart interaction and flexible regulation of the power system, and convert the traditienal energy/electricity allocation from partially sensing, one-way control, plan-first to highly sensing, two- way interaction, friendly an

49、d inclusive.xnsBavsa.susnavcnaaies,nanss. e. aa. maM6B1?BA%V6 . RJ?RB6A?I#IB , R?IRPJR# . BI9&)L. 1Vigorously develop digital infrastructure. Implement digital construction and transformation in various industries, open up data circulation channels in all aspects of energy production, transmission.

50、consumption and trading, fully tap all types of energy resources. improve energy utilization efficiency. and achieve multi-enecgy complementarity, praactive response, synergy and efficiency.4-StandardizationAccountingauthenticationEstablish a carbon emission reduction standa rd system. Make up for t

51、he shortcomings in key areas such as carbon emission monitoring, measurement, accounting and certification, accelerate the construction of low-carbon technology and carbon emission reduction standard systems, and establish a carbon emission reduction system that is in line with Hemational standards.

52、00BRft.BtB.bIG. ?fi9I#BBtB&tR1BB , 4“+ . f (f6.Strengthen international standardcooperation. Deepen the research and development of international standards in new energy, electrical equipment, energy conservation and environmental protection, build standards + testing service system, and build an in

53、tegrated standardization service platform.Carbon ReductionStandards system“regime systemAutonomous carbon control & reduction30Supports from two aspects be strengthened to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Aggregate scientific research forces, and carry out collaborative, multidisciplinary,

54、and multi-sector research, to get breakthroughs in key technologies in fields of off-shore wind power, PV, Solar thermal generation, nuclear power, energy storage, CCUS, hydrogen energy, and power electronicsStrength systematic researches on the top level design, the action plan as well as the polic

55、y system on carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Promote the construction of a single, national electricity market and carbon market, develop a green finance system, promote low-carbon technologies development and applications, and lower the whole society carbon transition cost.ContentsStu dy o n ca r

56、bon per k and carbon neutrality in power sectorThe roadmap of carbon peaI and carbon neurality321-Renewable GenerationI$0.15 /, In the recent decade. the cost of onshore wind power and photovoltaic power has dropped by 40K and 82X, respectively. The maximum single unit installed capacity of grid-con

57、nected offshore wind power can reach 10MW. The maximum output of large-size solar PV modules with 210mm silicon wafer can ceach 67OW, the photovoltaic power conversion efficiency is higher than 2496, and the lowest kWh cost is as low as 0.15 yuan/kWh.Developments of High-efficiency grid-friendly win

58、d turbines. High conversion efficiency photovoltaic power generation, Low-cost long-term storage solar thermal power generation, and breakthroughs of offshore wind power in manufacturing main bearing, domestication of control system and Lightweight platform, etc.R2020&iR .n&n i Oi?t2i3100FT E . J2iH

59、*$G&tElii8007STE.&tiiIXTi$2:&t1Zi.tiim&i4iss. iZZ0Sii$4:&Tta.%t7onTE.iBiii$2:&T6?8ii2i , &itii&-iF,.,F#i8BP&S8s&li9S=s.ili*i&-i:$2:&C&UiiitT s.&s59bEPitBy the end of 2020, Huaneng s installed capacity of prid-connected new energy has reached 31 GW, the scale of built offshore wind power and those un

60、der construction has exceeded 8 GW. Established Jiangsu Dafeng offshore wind farm, 55 kilometers from the shore, Jiangsu Rudong Offshore Wind Farm with installed capacity of 0.7GW. Led the establishment of the offshore wind power innovation consortium, and put into operation the first domestic real