WorldwideLessonsfromFinancialCrises金融危机的国际经验及现实

1、Worldwide Lessons from Financial Crises金融危机的国际经验及现实思考Vinod Thomas, Director-General & Senior Vice President Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank China Center for Economic Research Peking University February 19, 2009Table of ContentsThe CrisisPolicy ResponsesOutlook2I. The CrisisThe sub-prime mor

2、tgage bubble in the US was the detonator of the current crisisThe extensive use of derivatives made the exposure to the mortgage crisis explosiveThe chain reaction was globalized because of:The links among the financial sectors in OECD and emerging countriesThe high dependence of international trade

3、 on US demand3The extent of damage so farDeepening recession since mid-2008 with multiple downwards revisions of growth Contagion from the developed to emerging and less developed economiesDownward cycle through Trade and weakening demandCapital flowRemittanceCommodity priceReinforcing expectation f

4、or global depression and deflation4The sharpest global decline since 1970GDP Growth5Both OECD and emerging markets fall no decouplingSource: World Development Indicators 2008 and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 28, 2009 6Dramatic fall in Asias rapid growth China: Growth practically ground

5、 to a halt in 2008 Q4-Annual growth rate in 2009 expected to fall to 6.7% from 9.0% in 2008Exports plunged 17.5% year-on-year in January 2009the largest drop in almost 13 yearsImports down 43% year-on-year, partly explained by adjustment in inventory.Singapores GDP fell at an annualized rate of 17%

6、and South Koreas at 21% in Q4 2008Industrial production in the 12 months to December, 2008 is down 21% in Japan, 14% in Singapore, 19% in South KoreaSource: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 28, 20097Exports and capital flows crumbleChinaJordanMexicoIndiaSource: National Agencies through Th

7、omson/Datastream.Source: Institute for International Finance: “Capital Flows To Emerging Market Economies.” 01/27/09.Exports (Volumes, Change % 3 mma y/y)Private Net Capital Flows to Emerging Economies 8High trade shares with sharp declines in GDP growth(current episode)Source: World Development Ind

8、icators 2008 and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 28, 2009 9 Also high trade shares with strong recovery of GDP growth(past episodes)Source: World Development Indicators 2008Note: Crisis events are Argentina (1999-2002); Indonesia, Korea, Russia, Thailand, and Brazil (1997-1998); Mexico (1

9、994) and Turkey (2000-2001)10II. Policy ResponsesPolicy responseShort-termLong-termCountry levelSimilar responses across countriesFiscal and monetary policies to stimulate aggregate demandDiverse responses depending on the initial conditionssaving rates, current account balanceSustainable growthpove

10、rty, environment, educationGlobal responseCoordinated responsesbanking sector, financial system, liquidity, interest rates, open trade regimeInternational policy coordination mechanismssurveillance, environment, climate change A framework for assessment 11Five Areas for ActionFiscalTrade PovertyEnvi

11、ronmentConsumptionInvestmentsLiquidity Financial systemMarket confidence Sustainable growthSocial stability harmonyTerms of tradeValue chainCRISISFinancial12Financial sectorFire-fighting and beyondOften receive early attentionU.S. Housing market: 3 million foreclosures (2008)U.S. Banking sector: $1-

12、$2 trillion net cost of bailoutWorld stock markets: Almost 50% loss in the total capitalization in 2008-$30 trillion of wealth disappearedNeeded measures:Adequate prudential regulations with the increasing sophistication and dynamism of global marketsCapture the full risk implications of securitized

13、 mortgage loans and derivativesSound development of the financial sector in developing countries13 Fiscal policy Effective economic stimulusStimulus packages a stark difference from the 1990sUS: Tax cuts and priority investments around $800 bnJapan: Three packages - $112 bnGermany: Two packages for

14、infrastructure, tax cuts, clean energy- $106 bn United Kingdom: VAT reduction, capital spending-$27.8 bnChina: Infrastructure, housing - $586 bn India: Export incentives, guarantees, refinance facility- $4.1 bnShort-term vs. long-term choices:Countries with low or negative savings need more than sus

15、tained fiscal stimulus to emerge from the crisis Countries with high savings rates can combine the short-term fiscal stimulus with a longer-term expansionary policy14Trade Policy Avoiding the danger of closing inThe multiplier effects of the slowdown through the trade systemChina: Decreased export d

16、emand, 20 million migrant factory workers without jobsMomentum towards protectionism gains force in crisesUSA: “Buy American” requirementsRussia: raised tariff on imported carsIndia: 5% duty on select steel and iron productsArgentina and Brazil: approved tariffs on wine and textilesChina: increased

17、export-tax rebates on 3,700 goodsProtectionism will worsen the global contraction Strong international commitment to resist closing in critical15Poverty Not to be seen as an after-thoughtSocial and poverty impact of crises should be anticipated1% reduction in GDP traps another 20 million people in p

18、overty,100 million more people in poverty with the global recession Millions live very close to the poverty line, so even small GDP changes produce vast swings in povertyPast responses to crises ignored poverty impact in the early stagesMore attention needed to vulnerable groupspotential area for th

19、e World Bank Group to contributeImpact on immigrant labor: Foreign and domestic migration, remittances16EnvironmentThe “Cinderella” of the crisis?Tensions between:Short- and long term objectiveseconomic recovery, mitigation, adaptationDomestic and global objectivesglobal public goodsThese tensions i

20、ncrease in crisis periods30-50% reduction in wind and solar installations in U.S.Support for climate funds under threat in the EU and elsewhereDanger of backtracking on environmental policies17Five lessons from researchEarly, rapid and sizeable responses are keySocial safety-net and pro-poor policie

21、s need support from the outsetPolicies need to account for behavior and the political economyImmediate responses cannot ignore implications for development Global crisis needs a global solutiontarget stimuli where the marginal impact will be the greatest* * How to Solve the Global Economic CrisisJus

22、tin Yifu Lin, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank18Seven lessons from evaluation Emphasize not only volume, but also quality Focus on poverty from the outsetBuild in the environment and climate changeSeek selectivity and adaptability of response Stress coordination among partners F

23、ocus on monitoring and evaluationOrganize for early warning 19The World Bank Group and the crisis The WBG has a key role through: Financial support Policy advice and knowledge sharingCatalytic role in cross-country policy coordinationHelping to balance national and global goalsLong term partnership

24、with countries, even when its share in rescue packages is modest 20IV: Outlook: Uncertainty at an all-time high21“all consequential events in human history have come from unexpected, rare occurrences” Nassim Nicholas TalebUnusual Times22 Triple danger Economic, social, environmentGlobal economic dow

25、nturnOutlook highly uncertainThe timing of the recovery depends critically on policy actions Rising poverty worldwide The situation exacerbated by growing unemploymentClimate crisis Environmental devastation and global warming can derail all progress This could be an inflection point for our planet

26、A new development paradigm is needed23 When a crisis prompts action危机 Danger and OpportunityBrazils fiscal responsibility law; Indias 1991 reforms; Koreas financial sector actions.China revitalized after the Asian crisis Liberalization of the housing market Easing restrictions on privatization of medium SOEs Acceleration of the entry to WTO Investment in releasing bottlenecks - highway, port facility, telecommunication, high education China todayOpportunities in human capital; private sector; openne