泛在测绘论坛7geohazards

1、Geohazards: Applications of Geospatial Technologies in Hazard Assessment and Disaster RecoveryDavid HiggittUniversity of Nottingham Ningbo ChinaSecretary-General, Asia Oceania Geosciences SocietyAbout AOGS 亚洲与大洋洲地球科学学会Secretary General 2011-2017Program Chair 2013-2016 (about 3000 geoscientists atten

2、d)Conference in Beijing in August 2016 Special relationship with CAS, Earthquake Administration, NASAOutline of PresentationI am a field scientist, not a big data analyst!How field science is complemented by ubiquitous mapping and big data example of research on landslide dams in SW ChinaEarthquakes

3、 and the hazard cascade Smart Cities and Urban Flood Risk ManagementCAS Debris Flow Observatory, Dongchuan, YunnanA field scientist, not a big data analyst!Small sand quarries in the Jinsha Valley.Sand is buried by colluvial deposits so only exposed in quarries. Sequence of fining upwards gravels to

4、 medium sand. Typically units are 8-10 cm thick. Indicative of deposition behind a river blocking dam.Sand and gravel quarry at the Xiaojiang/Jinsha confluence. Sequence composed of fining-upward couplets. Preliminary OSL dates indicate some clustering at MIS4 (60 ka BP). Fieldwork: Mapping, GPS sur

5、vey, evidence for ancient landslideLaboratory: Sediment geochemistry, age of depositionBig Data Potential: identifying similar features in RS and DEM analysisExtent of lake deposits. Dam height 200m (650 to 845 m)Lake Length: 105 4 kmLake volume: 11.4 1.3 km3 Catchment area: 445,000 km3Xiaojiang tri

6、butary much steeper than Jinsha. Xiaojiang runs south to north along fault line likely major source of sediment infilling lake.QiaojiaRampart 900 mRampart 1200 mTriassic EscarpmentBlock detachment on fault scarpSRTM data rendering to examine landslide location12 May 2008 Sichuan (Wenchuan) Earthquak

7、eM 7.9 80,000 fatalities60,000 landslides generated 20,000 of the fatalities were landslide-relatedLandslide DensityRed 10% land surface disturbedPink 1% and 250 landslide damsSource:W.B. Ouimet (2010)Tectonophysics12Fieldsites north of WenchuanYingxiu (Epicenter)Lessons from WenchuanHuang Runqiu (N

8、ature Geoscience, May 2013)Not enough attention paid to “cascades of geohazards” following the earthquakePost-seismic hazards (debris flows and associated flooding)Sediment flux under-estimated. Rivers aggrading rapidly in some reaches.Historic Landslide DamsChai et al. (1995) inventory of 147 histo

9、ric landslide dams (from documentary sources), but likely many more in remote locations2008: M 7.9 Sichuan Earthquake. Xu et al. (2009) mapped 256 landslide damsBig Data = reassessment of the sediment cascade Huge quantities of sediment released by rockslides, landslides and debris flowsBuried roads

10、 and raised elevation of river bedKey QuestionsRole of big data in:Risk assessment modellingForecasting earthquakesModelling vulnerability and interdependence of lifeline systems (transport routes, water supply, etc)Dynamics of hazard cascadeDecision Support SystemsManagement of Earthquake HazardPro

11、tection, Mitigation, AdaptationEvent ModificationLimited prospect of humans being able to suppress earthquakes (prediction remains probabilistic)Hazard-resistant design: quality of buildingsEnforcement of seismic resistant designVulnerability ModificationPreparing the community safety evaluationFore

12、casting Land use planning and zoningLoss SharingDisaster AidInsuranceSatellite based early warning?Re-Insurance companies risk assessments Distribution systems and logisticsMapping building stockDrills, training, social mediaFormal planning: risk assessmentGEM: Open source risk assessment software a

13、nd tools. Aims to standardise risk evaluation and mitigation planningNASA and ESA also opening cloud platforms for hazard researchers. Particular interest in seismic hazard assessment in urban areasSmart CitiesSmart Urban GrowthHazard ManagementDigitally Connected City (Big Data)Transport PlanningEn

14、ergy and Sustainability Urban Regeneration & Economic GrowthHealthEducation and the “Learning City”Citizen EngagementArts and CultureTwo slides from an IBM presentation at U21 Summer School, University of Glasgow, 2015 (Source Dr Mary Keeling, IBM Economic Analysis Division)Source: UN Population Div

15、ision, World Urbanization Prospects (2011 revision)Population in megacities predicted to double between 2010 and 2025.Flood Risk in MegacitiesSource: Swiss Re, Risky CitiesConcentration of large populations in coastal cities increases numbers at risk from flood hazardsHowever, about 10% of worlds ur

16、ban population in megacities, compared to 52% in urban settlements of 0.5 million.Flood Risk in AsiaNumber of people impacted by floods has risen rapidly in Asian countries96% of flood displacements in AsiaUN World Water Assessment (1980-2006)城市也扩大到易受洪水影响的地区Ecological ApproachesAlthough engineering-

17、led approach is prevalent within Asian countries, there is growing interest in river restoration and ecological improvement这种方法被称为“蓝绿城”Restoration of Kallang River, SingaporePing River, Chiang Mai, ThailandAsian ExperienceEcological approaches in monsoon-dominated rivers require different strategies

18、 from recent experience in western countries暴雨和洪水风险管理Orchard Road, SingaporeMorioka, JapanApplications to Zhejiang应用于浙江Evaluation and Synthesis of multiple benefits ( mendations for design) 全面的水系统,为城市的发展Urban stream modelling with/without Blue-Green InfrastructureExample from a UK City by Blue-Green

19、 Cities Research TeamInside the Ningbo Water Resources Management Control Room3.2 总体框架 The overall framework物 联感 知基础保障通信网络云数据中心指挥调度中心地理信息共享平台农村水利水行政业务业务应用防汛减灾水资源管理水利工程建设运行气象信息防洪调度决策水资源调度决策智慧水利云平台 Smart Water Conservancy Cloud Platform水雨情工情视频大坝安全空间数据库水利信息化标准体系 知识库 Knowledge base数据分级交互共享平台指挥决策宁波智慧水利建设

20、 Ningbo Smart Water Conservancy Construction Two Slides from Presentation by Dr Fang Zhang, Ningbo Planning BureauNingbo Smart Water Conservancy 宁波市城市动态风险预警预报管理系统The management system of the dynamic risk, warning and forecasting in Ningbo基础数据查询Basic data query水雨工情查询The rain water information query实时洪水风险评估Current-time flood risk assessment动态洪水风险分析 Dynamic risk analysis of flood 洪水社会与经济影响分析social and economic impact analysis of flood风险图绘制与管理功能Risk graph drawing and management function系统设置 System settings四、宁波中心城洪水风险管理