项目选择课件

1、第二章项目选择2022/7/30第二章项目选择第1页，共54页。Project selection is the process of evaluating individual projects or groups of projects, and then choosing to implement some set of them so that the objectives of the parent organization will be achieved(项目选择是对单个或一组项目进行评估并选择实施对象从而实现母公司目标的过程). This same systematic pro

2、cess can be applied to any area of the organizations business in which choices must be made between competing alternatives(在公司运营过程中，当需要在多个竞争性方案之间进行选择的时候，也同样可以应用这种方法).Choosing a number of projects, a portfolio, is even more complex(选择一个项目组合，即多个不同的项目，甚至更加复杂).第二章项目选择第2页，共54页。一、项目选择的含义项目选择是指对单个或一组项目进行评估

3、并选择实施对象从而实现公司目标的过程。如：一家制造企业可以借助评估选择技术确定在部件组装流程中使用哪一种设备；建筑公司可以在一组投标项目中作出最佳的选择等。第二章项目选择第3页，共54页。PM is a key person in project selection, particularly if a Request for proposal(RFP,项目建议书) was involved.In this chapter we discuss several techniques that can be used to help senior managers select projects

4、. Project selection is only one of many decisions associated with project management. To deal with all of these problems, we use decision-aiding models(决策辅助模型). This process of caving away the unwanted reality from the bones of a problem is called modeling the problem(从问题的实质中剔除不必要的因素的过程就称为问题模型化). In

5、 other words, the idealized version of the problem that results is called a model(对问题的理想化描述就是模型). The model represents the problems structure, its form. The model can be shown with many forms, such as graphs(曲线), analogies(类比), diagrams(图表), flow graph(流程图), network models(网络图), and symbolic(mathema

6、tical) models. The model may be quite simple to understand, or they may be extremely complex. 第二章项目选择第4页，共54页。在进行项目选择时，常使用决策模型（decision-aiding model)（即项目选择模型）。模型可以简化问题，也可以展示问题结构(structure)。模型可能很容易理解，也可能非常复杂。第二章项目选择第5页，共54页。二、项目选择模型的评估标准合理选择投资项目，对每一家企业都至关重要。公司在选择项目模型的时候，应考虑下列标准：1、 realism(实用性).The mo

7、del should reflect the reality of the managers decision situation, including the multiple objectives of both the firm and its managers. Without a common measurement system, direction comparison of different projects is impossible. For example, project A may strengthen a firms market share by extendi

8、ng its facilities, and project B might improve its competitive position by strengthening its technical staff. Other things being equal, which is better? The model should take into account the realities of the firms limitations on facilities, capital, personnel, etc. The model should also include fac

9、tors that reflect project risks, including the technical risks of performance, cost, and time as well as the market risks of customer rejection and other implementation risks.第二章项目选择第6页，共54页。1、实用性。如：项目A通过添置设备可以增加企业的市场占有率，项目B通过增加技术人员可以提高竞争地位，当其他条件相同时，哪个项目更好？（此时应充分考虑企业设备、资本、人力资源等方面的局限综合考虑。）第二章项目选择第7页，

10、共54页。2、 capability(功能性). The model should be sophisticated enough to deal with multiple time periods, simulate various situations both internal and external to the project(e.g., strikes, interest rate changes, etc.), and optimize the decision. An optimizing model will make the comparison that manage

11、ment deems important, consider major risks and constraints on the projects, and then select the best overall project or set of projects.第二章项目选择第8页，共54页。2、功能性。模型的完善程度应适合多个时期，能够模拟项目内部和外部的各种条件，并能够使决策最优化。第二章项目选择第9页，共54页。3、 flexibility(灵活性).The model should give valid results within the range of conditio

12、ns to be self-adjusting in response to changes in the firms environment; for example, tax laws change, new technological advancements alter risk levels, and above all, the organizations goals change.4、 ease of use(易用性).The model should be reasonably convenient, not take a long time to execute, and b

13、e ease to use and understand. It should not require special interpretation, data that are difficult to acquire, excessive personnel, or unavailable equipment. The models variables should also relate to one-to-one with those real-world parameters the managers believe significant to the project. Final

14、ly, it should be easy to simulate the expected outcomes associated with investments in different project portfolios.5、cost(成本)Data-gathering and modeling costs should be low relative to the cost of the project and must surely be less than the potential benefits of the project. All costs should be co

15、nsidered, including the costs of data management and of running the model第二章项目选择第10页，共54页。3、灵活性。即模型应根据企业可能遇到的各种情况给出正确的结果。同时，模型应具有易于调整或自我调节的能力，以适应企业环境的变化（如税法变动、技术进步等因素）。4、易用性。即模型应易于使用和理解，数据易于获得，而不需要花费过多的时间。5、成本性。即数据收集和建立模型的成本要低于相应的项目成本，而且还要求低于项目的潜在收益。第二章项目选择第11页，共54页。三、项目选择模型的类型两种基本选择模型：数学模型非数学模型第二章项

16、目选择第12页，共54页。1、非数学模型（nonnumeric models)1) the sacred cow(圣牛).In this case the project is suggested by a senior and powerful official in the organization. Often the project is initiated with a simple comment such as“if you have a chance, why dont you look into,” and there follows an undeveloped idea

17、for a new product, for the development of a new market, for the design and adoption of a global data base and information system, or for some other project requiring an investment of the firms resources. The immediate result of this bland statement is the creation of a “project” to investigate whate

18、ver the boss has suggested. The project is “sacred” in the sense that it will be maintained until successfully concluded, or until the boss, personally, recognizes the idea as a failure and terminates it.第二章项目选择第13页，共54页。1）圣牛（The Sacred Cow)模型。指项目首先由组织中的高层权威人士提议，然后产生有关新产品的设想、新市场的开发等工作。高层权威的提议常常直接导致项

19、目的产生，从此意义而言，项目是“神圣”的，在未得到满意的结果之前，或高层已意识到该创意失败需要终止该项目之前，该项目将会一直存在下去。第二章项目选择第14页，共54页。2) the operating necessity(经营需要).If a flood is threatening the plant, a project to build a protective dike does not require much formal evaluation. In other words, a firm select its project mainly according to the op

20、erating necessity.3) comparative benefit model(比较利益模型).The concept of comparative benefits is widely adopted for selection decisions on all sorts of projects. Most United Way organizations(许多社会组织) use the concept to make decisions about which of several social programs to fund. Senior management of

21、the funding organization then examines all projects with positive recommendations and attempts to construct a portfolio that best fits the organizations aims and its budget.Of the several techniques for ordering projects , the Q-Sort(Q排序) is one of the most straightforward. First, the projects are d

22、ivided into three groupsgood, fair, and pooraccording to their relative merits. If any group has more than eight members, it is subdivided into two categories, such as fair-plus(中上) and fair-minus(中下). When all categories have eight or fewer members, the projects within each categories are ordered f

23、rom best to worst. Again, the order is determined on the basis of relative merit. The rater may use specific criteria to rank each project, or may simply use general overall judgment(整体判断方法).第二章项目选择第15页，共54页。2）经营需要模型。即项目的选择完全是根据经营需要来考虑，而不会过多的依靠模型来选择。如：受洪水威胁的工厂，修建防护堤的项目就不需要过多的评估。3）比较利益模型。比较利益选择最常见的就是

24、Q-排序模型，其中的排序就是根据相对优点即比较利益进行的。Q-排序模型的步骤如下：第二章项目选择第16页，共54页。第一步：为每位参与者准备一副卡片，每张卡片上写上项目名称和内容第二步：让每位参与者把卡片分为两堆，一堆代表优势项目，另一堆代表劣势项目（数量不必相同）第三步：让每位参与者从每一堆卡片中抽出一些放一堆，代表中等优势项目。第四步：让每位参与者从优势卡片中抽出一些放在一堆，代表最有优势的项目，再在劣势卡片中抽出一些放一堆，代表最劣势的项目第五步：最后，让每位参与者考虑自己的选择，权衡每一张卡片的摆放位置直到满意为止。图示如下：第二章项目选择第17页，共54页。初始卡片高水平低水平高水平

25、中等水平低水平中等水平极高水平高水平低水平极低水平 Q-排序步骤第二章项目选择第18页，共54页。4）专家意见模型（即Delphi模型）第二章项目选择第19页，共54页。2、numeric modelsThere are two categories in numeric model, profit/profitability and scoring.1) profit/profitability(利润/盈利能力数学模型).In practice, a larger majority of all firms using project evaluation and selection mod

26、els use profit/profitability as the sole measure of acceptability. This models are detailed as following: payback period(回收期). The payback period for a project is the initial fixed investment in the project divided by the estimated annual cash inflows from the project. The ratio of these quantities

27、is the number of years required for the project to repay its initial fixed investment(项目回收期等于项目最初的固定投资除以每年预计的现金流入。这个比率就是项目收回固定投资的年限). 第二章项目选择第20页，共54页。2、数学模型数学模型又分为：利润盈利能力模型评分模型第二章项目选择第21页，共54页。1）利润/盈利能力模型项目回收期（payback period)。它等于项目最初的固定投资除以每年预计的现金流入。即项目回收期=初始投资/（每年营业现金流入+折旧）应用：项目回收期应与标准投资回收期相比较进行选择

28、。难点：每年现金流入不等时如何计算投资回收期？优点：简单缺点：未考虑货币时间价值举例第二章项目选择第22页，共54页。 average rate return(平均回报率). Often mistaken as the reciprocal of the payback period, the average rate of return is the ratio of the average annual profit(either before or after taxes) to the initial or average investment in the project(平均回报率

29、常常被错误地认为是回收期的倒数。而平均回报率是平均年利润（税前或税后）与项目最初投资或平均投资的比率). 第二章项目选择第23页，共54页。平均回报率（Average Rate of Return)。它是平均利润（税前或税后）与项目最初投资或平均投资的比率。应用：回报率越高，项目投资价值越大。优点：简单缺点：未考虑货币时间价值举例第二章项目选择第24页，共54页。 discounted cash flow(现金流量折现). Also referred to as the net present value method, the discounted cash flow method dete

30、rmines the net present value of all cash flows by discounting them by the required rate of return(also known as the hurdle rate, cutoff rate, and similar terms)(这种方法也称为净现值法，现金流量折现法是用最低投资回报率（也称为临界报酬率等）折现所有的现金流量).第二章项目选择第25页，共54页。净现值（Net Present Value，NPV）。它是指用最低投资回报率去折现或贴现所有的现金净流量所得到的总和。（注意净现值三种结果的含义

31、）举例如下：建设谋公司拟安装一条生产线，初始设备投资125000元，设备安装费100000元，物料投放系统和生产线调试费90000元。运输和安装设备需1年时间，调试整套设备又需1年时间。工程师估计从第四年开始每两年一次的定期大修需要支出15000元，但最后1年不需进行大修。项目计划在第三年开始生产。在运营的第一年因生产成本节约和利润增加的总额为50000元，预计在第二年达到最大值120000元，以后几年年如表所示。项目寿命假定为10年，10年后设备报废的残值为35000元。第二章项目选择第26页，共54页。假设该公司要求的最低回报率为12%，估计在项目寿命周期内的通货膨胀率为3%。假设初始投资

32、发生在年初，其他收入支出发生在年末。根据以上资料，可以绘制如下的净现值分析表（见下页）第二章项目选择第27页，共54页。年份A流入（元）B流出（元）C净流量（元）D=（B-C）折现率1/（1+k+p）t净现值（元）D（折现后）19960125000-1250001.0000-12500019960100000-1000000.8696-869601997090000-900000.7561-680491998500000500000.6575328751999120000150001050000.571860039200011500001150000.497257178200110500015

33、000900000.4323389072002970000970000.37593646220039000015000750000.3269245182004820000820000.2843233132005650000650000.247216068200535000（残值）350000.24728652total75900036000039900018003 净现值分析表第二章项目选择第28页，共54页。第二章项目选择第29页，共54页。从上表可看出，该项目的总现金流入为759000元，或者说10年中平均每年现金流入为75900元。项目所需总投资为315000元（忽略每两年的大修理支出）

34、。假定用直线法折旧，则10年中每年折旧为31500元（假设不考虑残值）。则该项目的投资回收期为：回收期=315000/（75900+31500）=2.9（年）再看该项目的净现值为：18003元，是正数，表示可以接受该项目。第二章项目选择第30页，共54页。 profitability index(盈利能力指数). Also known as the benefit-cost ratio, the profitability index is the net present value of all future expected cash flows divided by the initia

35、l cash investment(也称做成本-收益比率，盈利能力指数是未来现金流量的净现值除以初始现金投资). If this ratio is greater than 1.0, the project may be accepted.第二章项目选择第31页，共54页。现值指数法（Present Value Index)：是指投资项目的未来现金流入量现值与所需投资额现值之比，即：现值指数=未来现金流入量现值投资额现值现值指数三种结果的应用优点：可以克服用NPV法不能用于对不同投资额方案进行比较和评价的缺点，从而使方案的评价更加合理、客观。例如：第二章项目选择第32页，共54页。现有两个方案

36、，有关资料如下缺点（包括NPV）：思考？项目方案A方案B现金流入量现值（元）315004200投资额现值（元）300003000净现值（元）15001200现值指数1.051.4第二章项目选择第33页，共54页。 internal rate of return(内含报酬率). If we have a set of expected cash inflows and cash outflows, the internal rate of return is the discount rate that equates the present values of the two sets of

37、flows. If At is an expected cash outflow in the period t and Rt is the expected inflow for the period t, the internal rate of return is the value of k that satisfies the following equation(note that the A0 will be positive in this formulation of the problem)(如果我们有一组预期的现金流入数据和现金流出数据，内含报酬率IRR就是使现金流入现值

38、等于现金流出现值的折现率。如果At是第t期现金流出， Rt是第t期现金流入，满足下面方程的k就是内含报酬率（请注意：该等式中A0是正数）).第二章项目选择第34页，共54页。 内含报酬率（Internal Rate of Return，IRR). 如果我们有一组预期的现金流入数据和现金流出数据，内含报酬率IRR就是使现金流入现值等于现金流出现值的折现率。如果At是第t期现金流出， Rt是第t期现金流入，满足下面方程的k就是内含报酬率（请注意：该等式中A0是正数）内含报酬率公式如下：第二章项目选择第35页，共54页。IRR的应用第一，在每年现金流入量相同情况下的应用方法：直接用插值法或查表法求解

39、公式为：每年现金流入量年金现值系数=现金流出量现值（或投资额现值），即年金现值系数=投资额现值/每年现金流入量然后，根据所求得的年金现值系数，利用年金现值系数表查表即得。第二章项目选择第36页，共54页。第二，在每年现金流入量不等情况下的应用方法：试错法（ trial and error method）。举例(见下页)优点：?缺点：?第二章项目选择第37页，共54页。The example for trial and error method is shown as following: There is a company. the company invest in a project f

40、or 120000 yuan( one-time investment), the duration of the project is 4 years. The estimated annual cash inflows are 30000 yuan, 40000 yuan, 50000 yuan, and 35000 yuan, respectively. Assume that the expected lowest rate of return for investment is 10%. Question: how does the company make decision for

41、 investment by IRR? we can use the trial and error method to solve the problem. In order to understand this method, we will list a table(see the following page)第二章项目选择第38页，共54页。 yearAnnual cash inflow( yuan )First trial and error(8%)Second trial and error(12%)Third trial and error(10%)Discount facto

42、rPresent valueDiscount factorPresent valueDiscount factorPresent value 1 2 3 4The total present value of cash inflowMinus: the present value of investmentNet cash flow300004000050000350000.9260.8570.7940.7352778034280397002572512748512000074850.8930.7970.7120.63626790318803560022260116530120000(3470

43、)0.9090.8260.7510.683272703304037550239051217651200001765第二章项目选择第39页，共54页。作业假设某项初始投资为6000元，在第一年末流入现金2500元，第二年末流入现金3000元，第三末流入现金3500元。计算：该项投资的报酬率是多少？ （要求至少试错3次） 如果资金的成本为10%时，该 项投资的NPV是多少？第二章项目选择第40页，共54页。2）评分模型为了克服盈利能力模型的一些缺陷（因为他们往往只考虑单一标准），可以使用多个标准来评估项目，即评分模型。评分模型分为：评分标准未加权的评分模型和评分标准要加权的评分模型评分标准未加权的

44、评分模型（如0-1评分模型，略）第二章项目选择第41页，共54页。加权评分模型（Scoring Model）其公式为：其中： Si为第i个项目的总得分 Sij为第i个项目的第j个标准的得分 Wj为第j个标准的权重。第二章项目选择第42页，共54页。加权评分模型举例汽车选购例子 A. 购车标准和权重外观刹车舒适运行成本买价操作稳定性437510750.100.070.170.120.240.170.12总计410.99第二章项目选择第43页，共54页。有关汽车的选购标准、测量信息和数据来源外观 主观判断，个人刹车 刹车距离，60-0mph，汽车杂志舒适 主观判断，30分钟道路测试运行成本 年保险

45、费加汽油费买价 经销商价格操作 标准障碍赛的平均速度稳定性 消费者报告的评分，修理频率数据第二章项目选择第44页，共54页。 C. 汽车运行测试结果打分标准 分数12345外观刹车舒适度运行成本买价操作稳定性很差大于165很差大于2.5大于32.5小于45很差差165-150差2.1-2.526-32.545-49.5差一般150-140一般1.9-2.121-2649.5-55一般好140-130好1.6-1.917-2155-59好很好小于130很好小于1.6小于17大于59很好第二章项目选择第45页，共54页。备选车Alternatives 标准和权重（ Criteria and wei

46、ghts）外观Appearance(0.10)刹车Braking(0.07)舒适度Comfort(0.17)运行成本Cost, operating(0.12)买价Const, original(0.24)操作Handling(0.17)稳定性Reliability(0.12)总分sijwjLeviathan 8nuevoeEconMaxivanSporticar 100Ritzy 30030.1=0.3030.1=0.302 0.1=0.205 0.1=0.504 0.1=0.401 0.07=0.073 0.07=0.211 0.07=0.074 0.07=0.285 0.07=0.354

47、0.17=0.682 0.17=0.344 0.17=0.683 0.17=0.515 0.17=0.852 0.12=0.245 0.12=0.604 0.12=0.482 0.12=0.242 0.12=0.241 0.24=0.244 0.24=0.963 0.24=0.722 0.24=0.481 0.24=0.242 0.17=0.342 0.17=0.341 0.17=0.175 0.17=0.854 0.17=0.683 0.12=0.364 0.12=0.483 0.12=0.362 0.12=0.245 0.12=0.602.233.232.683.103.36 D. 备选车的综合加权评分表第二章项目选择第46页，共54页。四、项目建议书（即项目设想和初选）项