五种主流公司估值模型

1、,一般情景预测,公司名称,华星化工,代码,002018,分析日期,2006/04/18,流通A股,2,000.00,流通B股,0.00,流通H股,0.00,总股本,6,500.00,A股股价,7.17,B股股价,0.00,H股股价,0.00,Word模板指标输出,2004A,2005A,2006E,2007E,2008E,主营收入（万元）,25,110.00,35,524.00,48,675.93,67,905.18,74,220.52,主营收入增长率,24.39%,41.47%,37.02%,39.50%,9.30%,EBITDA（万元）,4,027.00,4,577.00,8,108.46

2、,13,348.07,17,156.30,EBITDA增长率,15.95%,13.66%,77.16%,64.62%,28.53%,净利润（万元）,2,147.00,2,371.00,3,522.90,6,606.93,9,175.16,净利润增长率,0.56%,10.43%,48.58%,87.54%,38.87%,ROE,8.28%,8.68%,11.67%,18.59%,21.35%,EPS（元）,0.330 ,0.365 ,0.542 ,1.016 ,1.412 ,P/E,21.71,19.66,13.23,7.05,5.08,P/B,1.80,1.71,1.54,1.31,1.08,

3、EV/EBITDA,9.17,11.03,6.94,3.88,2.45,估值结果汇总,估值方法,估值结果,估值区间,敏感度分析区间,FCFF,20.64 ,17.08,23.62,贴现率1%，长期增长率1%,6.54,FCFE,16.38 ,14.90,19.09,贴现率1%，长期增长率1%,4.19,DDM,2.86 ,2.63,3.29,贴现率1%，长期增长率1%,0.66,APV,17.99 ,14.90,20.13,贴现率1%，长期增长率1%,5.23,AE,10.10 ,9.65,10.94,贴现率1%，长期增长率1%,1.29,EVA,16.33 ,14.21,18.10,贴现率1

4、%，长期增长率1%,3.89,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,EBIT,3,473.00,3,448.00,3,732.00,6,051.67,10,826.01,14,371.60,EBITDA,3,473.00,4,027.00,4,577.00,8,108.46,13,348.07,17,156.30,所得税率,32.01%,33.84%,31.63%,32.73%,32.73%,32.73%,NOPLAT,2,361.42,2,281.31,2,551.49,4,070.69,7,282.18,9,667.15,IC,9,162.00,16,252.0

5、0,31,033.00,39,678.80,40,557.76,38,271.86,Ve,32,265.00,46,605.00,46,605.00,46,605.00,46,605.00,46,605.00,Vd,2,700.00,4,670.00,11,771.00,20,489.52,20,294.54,11,977.94,WACC,11.55%,11.43%,10.50%,9.63%,9.65%,10.48%,EV,32,649.00,36,937.00,50,467.00,56,257.40,51,781.25,42,058.62,业绩表现,2003,2004,2005,2006E,

6、2007E,2008E,收入增长率,24.39%,41.47%,37.02%,39.50%,9.30%,净利润增长率,0.56%,10.43%,48.58%,87.54%,38.87%,EBITDA增长率,15.95%,13.66%,77.16%,64.62%,28.53%,EBIT增长率,-0.72%,8.24%,62.16%,78.89%,32.75%,主营业务利润率,31.41%,25.80%,22.22%,24.26%,27.80%,31.16%,EBITDA Margin (%),11.25%,5.28%,26.85%,27.25%,60.30%,ROE,24.32%,8.28%,8

7、.68%,11.67%,18.59%,21.35%,ROIC,25.77%,14.04%,8.22%,10.26%,17.96%,25.26%,ROIC WACC,14.22%,2.60%,-2.28%,0.63%,8.31%,14.78%,价值比率,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,P / E,15.11,21.71,19.66,13.23,7.05,5.08,EV / 收入,1.62,1.47,1.42,1.16,0.76,0.57,EV / EBITDA,9.40,9.17,11.03,6.94,3.88,2.45,EV / EBIT,9.40,10.71

8、,13.52,9.30,4.78,2.93,EV / NOPLAT,13.83,16.19,19.78,13.82,7.11,4.35,EV / IC,3.56,2.27,1.63,1.42,1.28,1.10,P / B,3.68,1.80,1.71,1.54,1.31,1.08,Dividend Yield (%),1.16%,0.48%,1.39%,1.43%,2.69%,3.73%,每股指标,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,报表EPS,0.47,0.33,0.36,0.54,1.02,1.41,经常性EPS,每股红利,0.08,0.03,0.10,0.

9、10,0.19,0.27,每股经营现金流,1.26,1.18,2.02,每股净资产,1.95,3.99,4.20,4.64,5.47,6.61,流动性,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,净负债 / 权益,0.04,-0.37,0.14,0.32,0.15,-0.11,总负债 / 总资产,49.22%,35.22%,51.02%,60.58%,59.70%,52.61%,流动比率,1.10,2.27,1.10,0.91,1.08,1.32,速动比率,0.57,1.49,0.60,0.48,0.59,0.75,输出到Word模板中的三张表（输出2004-2008年）

10、,利润表（万元）,2004,2005,2006E,增长率%,2007E,增长率%,2008E,增长率%,主营业务收入,25,110.00,35,524.00,48,675.93,37.02%,67,905.18,39.50%,74,220.52,9.30%,主营业务利润,6,468.00,7,873.00,11,785.61,49.70%,18,844.87,59.90%,23,090.88,22.53%,其他业务利润,55.00,-49.00,50.00,N/A,50.00,0.00%,100.00,100.00%,营业费用,1,929.00,2,596.00,3,648.24,40.53%

11、,5,089.47,39.50%,5,562.80,9.30%,管理费用,1,146.00,1,496.00,2,135.69,42.76%,2,979.39,39.50%,3,256.48,9.30%,财务费用,197.00,221.00,784.38,254.92%,973.86,24.16%,701.41,-27.98%,营业利润,3,251.00,3,511.00,5,267.29,50.02%,9,852.14,87.04%,13,670.19,38.75%,投资收益,0.00,0.00,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,利润总额,3,245.00,3,468.0

12、0,5,237.29,51.02%,9,822.14,87.54%,13,640.19,38.87%,净利润,2,147.00,2,371.00,3,522.90,48.58%,6,606.93,87.54%,9,175.16,38.87%,NOPLAT,2,281.31,2,551.49,4,070.69,59.54%,7,282.18,78.89%,9,667.15,32.75%,资产负债表（万元）,2004,2005,2206E,增长率%,2007E,增长率%,2008E,增长率%,流动资产,26,134.00,25,839.00,35,559.58,37.62%,48,826.27,3

13、7.31%,53,237.09,9.03%,货币资金,14,338.00,7,909.00,10,837.12,37.02%,15,118.29,39.50%,16,524.32,9.30%,短期投资,0.00,0.00,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,应收帐款,1,730.00,4,047.00,4,449.46,9.94%,6,996.67,57.25%,7,647.37,9.30%,其他应收款,233.00,413.00,565.90,37.02%,565.90,0.00%,862.88,52.48%,存货,8,949.00,11,801.00,16,726.45,

14、41.74%,22,243.71,32.99%,23,181.12,4.21%,长期投资,0.00,0.00,151.00,N/A,151.00,0.00%,151.00,0.00%,固定资产,12,883.00,29,587.00,40,051.21,35.37%,38,550.14,-3.75%,36,786.44,-4.58%,无形资产,996.00,210.00,189.00,-10.00%,168.00,-11.11%,147.00,-12.50%,总资产,40,013.00,55,787.00,76,559.78,37.24%,88,177.41,15.17%,90,676.53,

15、2.83%,无息负债,9,030.00,15,644.00,23,892.86,52.73%,30,350.36,27.03%,33,729.35,11.13%,有息负债,4,670.00,11,771.00,20,489.52,74.07%,20,294.54,-0.95%,11,977.94,-40.98%,少数股东权益,0.00,0.00,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,0.00,N/A,股东权益,25,920.00,27,322.00,30,177.41,10.45%,35,532.51,17.75%,42,969.24,20.93%,净营运资本,14,604.00,2,424.0

16、0,-3,322.80,N/A,3,681.37,N/A,13,029.80,253.94%,投入资本IC,16,252.00,31,033.00,39,678.80,27.86%,40,557.76,2.22%,38,271.86,-5.64%,现金流量表（万元）,2004,2005,2006E,增长率%,2007E,增长率%,2008E,增长率%,净利润,2,147.00,2,371.00,3,522.90,48.58%,6,606.93,87.54%,9,175.16,38.87%,折旧摊销,579.00,845.00,2,056.79,143.41%,2,522.06,22.62%,2

17、,784.70,10.41%,净营运资金增加,13,925.00,-12,180.00,-5,746.80,N/A,7,004.17,N/A,9,348.43,33.47%,经营活动产生现金流,1,372.00,4,894.00,8,161.47,66.76%,7,701.83,-5.63%,13,162.47,70.90%,投资活动产生现金流,-3,986.00,-1,156.00,-12,500.00,N/A,-1,000.00,N/A,-1,000.00,N/A,融资活动产生现金流,4,458.00,-4,756.00,7,266.65,N/A,-2,420.67,N/A,-10,756

18、.44,N/A,现金净增（减） ,1,844.00,-1,018.00,2,928.12,N/A,4,281.17,46.21%,1,406.03,-67.16%,指标说明：, EV=股权价值+债权价值现金, EBITDA EBIT 折旧 摊销, EBIT 营业利润财务费用, NOPLAT EBIT （1所得税率） EBIT 所得税（只考虑核心业务，扣除非经常性损益）, IC（invested capital） 股东权益 长期借款 短期借款 应付债券 少数股东权益现金短期投资长期投资, ROIC NOPLAT / IC 100, OPFCF EBITDA 税收 净资本性支出 营运资本的增加, WACC (KeVe)（KdVd