全球-可持续产业-ESG趋势：乐购供应商访谈二氧化碳排放太阳能与可视化AQI

1、Global Research 19 February 2019EquitiesEquitiesEquitiesESG TrendsGlobalEquitiesGlobalGlobal SustainabilityGlobalGlobal SustainabilityGlobalGlobal SustainabilityCharts in focusFigure 1: 10-year change in emission rate & renewable penetrationChange in CO2t/MWhSource: Governmentdata, UBS research. Tim

2、eframe is 2006-2016. (CO2 Emissions, Windham, CFA, 6 Feb 2019)() UOLP匕ud -qBMuSubFigure 2: Attribution of CO2 reductionJulie Hudson, CFAAnalyst +44-20-7568 4632Victoria KalbSource: Gallup Poll, U.S. government data, UBS research. (CO2 Emissions, Windham, CFA, 6 Feb 2019)ESG Trends Op Ed: What Do Our

3、 Tesco Supplier Interviews Mean for ESG?We return to our ongoing exploration of how ESG factors get into a DCF. (See also (Un)strarded Assets”: the RWE “ESG in DCFs“ case study continued, and MOff-Market ESG Assets in DCFs.) We consider Tesco as a company potentially in competitive transition* towar

4、ds a more sustainable model on the basis of the significant change in the companys relationship with suppliers as described by UBS analyst Dan Ekstein.North America Alternative Energy: The State of U.S. electricity CO2 emissions Total CO2 emissions from U.S. electricity generation peaked in 2007 and

5、 have declined by approximately 26% through 2017, primarily driven by the displacement of coal generation. Renewables were attributable for the majority of the CO2 reductions (52%) with natural gas (44%) and decline in load (4%) comprising the balance. (CO2 Emissions, Windham, CFA, 6 Feb 2019).Solar

6、 energy: Solar revolution is propelling European smallcapsWe expect solar generation in Europe to experience exponential growth in the next decade, driven by highly competitive costs and very attractive returns. Globally, the scale of investment in renewables is overwhelming (c 500bn/year) and growi

7、ng, with solar accounting for more than 50% of this. (Solar Energy, Ojeda, 7 Feb 2019).Global Sustainability: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Visualising AQIAs discussed in our launch of the UBS Evidence Lab Air Quality Index, the polluting sectors are transport systems, industry, power generation and dome

8、stic heating. Steady momentum is in evidence on two fronts for air pollution: regular policy announcements aimed at reducing transport-related pollution in cities; and a shift towards alternative energy in energy generation systems globally. (AQI, Hudson, CFA, 7 Feb 2019) nvestmentresearchThis repor

9、t has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 43. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the o

10、bjectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Solar energy: a bottom-up view - Solar revolution is propelling European smallcapsCapex in solar energy likely to grow exponentially, with broad implicationsWe expect solar ge

11、neration in Europe to experience exponential growth in the next decade, driven by highly competitive costs and very attractive returns. Globally, the scale of investment in renewables is overwhelming (c 500bn/year) and growing, with solar accounting for more than 50% of this. Europe is responding qu

12、ickly to the challenge, with recent IPOs and capital increases (Solarpack and Solaria in Spain are good examples). Other names are likely to be affected, such as engineering installation companies (ACS, Elecnor.), equipment and chemical stocks (Meyer, Wacker.) etc.Full solar value chain analysed thr

13、ough Wacker, Meyer, ACS and SolariaThis report analyses the entire solar value chain, from polysilicon to solar parks, through our coverage of Wacker Chemie (leading manufacturer of polysilicon and silicon), Meyer Burger (PV equipment manufacturer), ACS (renewable installations) and Solaria, a pure

14、player in Spanish solar generation with a very ambitious pipeline ( 2GW+), on which we initiate coverage with a Neutral rating (link). The report also draws on a number of meetings we have had in Europe with solar generation companies, solar funds, development companies and a bank active in solar le

15、nding.Material implications for utilities and, in some cases, macro capexSolar generation costs have come down so much that they are now below grid parity in some countries such as Spain. In our recent reports CWhes grid parity.”，November 2018, and European Utilities, Buy the adaptors.*, January 201

16、9) we highlighted how renewable investments are reshaping large utilities, with renewables becoming their core business. We favour the early adaptors such as Orsted and Enel (sector leaders with attractive valuation in our view); and also Engie (catching up).Our views on the solar value chain: Buy W

17、acker Chemie, Buy ACSWe rate Wacker Chemie as a Buy on an overly negative market sentiment on polysilicon. We believe Meyer Burger (Neutral) is in a highly competitive industry and requires tough restructuring. We rate ACS a Buy and have upgraded our price target to 39.5 from 37.0, based on a strong

18、 backlog and an underestimation of exposure to renewables (utilities are c50% of EBITDA). On Solaria, we believe the company will generate solid value, but see the stock as fully valued (Neutral, 5.7 target).Full ReportUtilitiesUtilitiesUtilitiesAnalyst:Bosco OjedaUtilitiesAnalyst:Bosco Ojeda+34-91-

19、436 9078Global Sustainability - UBS Evidence Lab inside: Visualising AQIPress Commentary on Air Pollution and Health EffectsIn recent months, a stream of new scientific papers on the adverse health effects of air pollution, touching on life expectancy, cognitive performance, mental health, maternal

20、health and cardiovascular health, have kept this important topic in the headlines.Air Quality Made Visible - ESG Team Checking Out Air Pollution on the GroundIn the interests of understanding AQI in practical terms, I invested in the Plume Labs Flow air quality monitor ( REF _Ref427462 h Figure 1).

21、The sensor can hang on a bag or stand on a desk. Data are captured real-time in the Flow AppH on an iPhone or Android device, which displays a map of the users trajectory, and a plot of pollution levels.Technology Changes Perspectives: Think Twice About Travelling?In our research about Air Quality,

22、0-50 AQIs are good, posing little or no risk, in line with World AQI project definitions. Little is likely to be known about long-run cumulative exposures in the 25-50 range. REF _Ref427462 h Figure 1 (a London street) is aspirational for many. My AQI level exceeded 100 on the road,: on a motorway i

23、n traffic or on foot on a busy street. On the London Underground nmy AQI is regularly over 200.Investment Read-ThroughsAs discussed in our launch of the UBS Evidence Lab Air Quality Index on air pollution in November 2017, the main polluting sectors are transport systems, industry, power generation

24、and domestic heating. Regulatory impacts in relation to such activities are visible in UBSs research reports in commodities, autos and utilities sectors. See p. 3.Full ReportAnalyst:Julie Hudson, CFA+44-20-7568 4632Analyst:Julie Hudson, CFA+44-20-7568 4632Analyst:Julie Hudson, CFAAnalyst:Julie Hudso

25、n, CFA+44-20-7568 4632SoftwareAnalyst:Jennifer Swanson Lowe+1-415-352 4694Technology 8t InnovationSoftwareAnalyst:Jennifer Swanson Lowe+1-415-352 4694AlU.S. Software - UBS Evidence Lab inside: Al Making the Move From Hype to RealityYesterdays Al Hype Becomes Todays Al RealityAl projects are moving o

26、ut of the labs and into the real world, while companies are confident that Al can deliver real value to the bottom line and are investing. We think multiple vendors will benefit from this trend in the next few years, as each provides unique value to the marketplace, and customers are willing to mix

27、and match providers in search of the optimal mix of capabilities.Al Is Going MainstreamUBS Evidence Lab surveyed 450 senior IT decision makers at large enterprises in the US, Europe, and China regarding their use of Al technology. Our analysis of the data shows (1) adoption is growing (88% of respon

28、dents have at least one Al initiative in the works); (2) more Al apps are in production (percentage of US respondents with an Al app in production up 59% from the 2017 survey); and (3) Al is delivering real business impact (43% say Al is having an impact on their business today). Chatbots, ML, and N

29、LP were the most-used Al technologies, while Visual Recognition was least used.The Big Guy Has a Particular Eye For AlWhile Al is typically part of a bigger project vs. a discrete purchase decision, on average survey respondents are allocating 3% of IT budget to Al, while bigger companies with bigge

30、r IT budgets plan to spend 60 bps more IT budget share on Al than smaller peers. We think Al benefits may accrue disproportionately to the biggest companies with the most robust data sets and well-financed IT departments, and survey data on Al share of budget seems to support this view.IBM and Micro

31、soft Lead Mindshare, but Unlikely to be Winner-Take-AUIBM and Microsoft Al technologies generated the highest interest from the survey group, and both also saw a significant uptick in perceived leadership from the 2017 survey, as did Google and Amazon. Oracle and SAP were also seen as leaders in Al

32、outside of the US, while Amazon and Google fared better with US-based respondents. While IBM and Microsoft were seen as Al leaders, respondents also expressed a preference for mixing and matching solutions from multiple vendors. We think this reflects the relative immaturity of the market along with

33、 the rapid pace of innovation, as buyers remain open to evaluating solutions from vendors that offer fresh capabilities.Full ReportSource: This is an extract from U.S. Software - UBS Evidence Lab inside: Al Making the Move From Hype to Reality* by Jennifer Swanson Lowe published on 19 February 2019A

34、utomation, Robotics and DigitalisationMacro-Strategy Key Issue UBS Evidence Lab inside: Automation, robotics and digitalisation in the Eurozone corporate sectorFirms expect ARD* investment share to increase from modest levelsData from the latest UBS Evidence Lab survey of 600 Eurozone corporates in

35、Germany, France, Italy and Spain suggests that the proportion of firms planning to increase investment in automation, robotics and digitalisation (ARD) rose to 59% in Q4 (from 54% in Q3). The share of firms planning ARD reductions was broadly unchanged at 11% in Q4, bringing the net balance up to 47

36、% from 42% in Q3. Overall, though, firms continue to allocate only a relatively modest proportion (9%) of their total investment towards ARD. At the country level, the share of firms planning to increase ARD investment was surprisingly high in Italy (68%), while it was lowest in Germany (50%). By se

37、ctor, consumer and industrial companies plan to increase ARD investment more than materials companies; large firms are more active than SMEs.Cost-cutting and output expansion remain key reasons for investment in ARDOutput expansion and cost reduction remain the main reasons for ARD investment in Q4,

38、 unchanged from Q3. Output expansion was the top incentive for 39% of firms (up from 37% in Q3). The proportion of firms citing cost-cutting was broadly unchanged in Q4, at 53%, while the share of firms mentioning innovation declined slightly, to 28% from 31% in Q3.Firms expect ARD to widen their pr

39、ofit marginsThe majority of Eurozone firms (59%) expect ARD to have a positive impact on profit margins. However, the expected effect on prices is unclear, with 41% of firms expecting prices to stay broadly unchanged, 33% expecting lower prices and only 18% expecting higher prices. Expectations of w

40、ider margins seem to be highest among large firms and firms in materials.What is the link between digitalisation and productivity?Economist:Anna Titareva+44-20-7568 5083Our work on Eurozone ductivity and long-term growth potential has indicated that, while tangible investment is important, there are

41、 increasing signs that intangible investment is particularly important for productivity - and hence for long-term growth potential. The survey suggests that, on average, Eurozone corporates allocate 33% of their investment budget to high-tech investment. In Italy, the overall investment quota is the

42、 lowest of the four largest Eurozone countries (18%), which means that high-tech investment as a share of Italian GDP is lower than in other countries. France has the highest investment quota, at Economist:Anna Titareva+44-20-7568 5083Survey suggests industrial Internet of Things as a growth driver

43、of cap goodsDiscrete automation is an area of healthy growth among industrial verticals, as highlighted by the UBS Evidence Lab survey. The top reasons to invest in ARD are: (1) expanding output; (2) cutting labour costs; and (3) lowering non-labour costs. Among European industrials, ABB, Hexagon, K

44、ion and Siemens are the most exposed to automation and software, accounting for 25% plus of group sales. Combining our thematic preferences with valuations, we lean towards Siemens (Buy, PT 130), KION (Buy, PT 55) and Thales (Buy, PT 130) post the acquisition of Gemalto, including the Internet of Th

45、ings (loT) activities.Full ReportSource: This is an extract from “Macro-Strategy Key Issue-UBS Evidence Lab inside: Automation, robotics and digitalisation in the Eurozone corporate sector* by Anna Titareva published on 13 February 2019AutomobilesAnalyst:Patrick Hummel,CFA+41-44-239 79 23Autonomous

46、VehiclesAutomobilesAnalyst:Patrick Hummel,CFA+41-44-239 79 23Pole Position - UBS European Autos DailyRenault: Renault-Nissan alliance reportedly in partnership talks with WaymoYesterday, Reuters reported that the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance is said to be in advanced talks with Waymo to jointl

47、y develop autonomous vehicles (AVs). The partners are reportedly likely to consider the joint development of robotaxis using Nissan vehicles and a system that also handles reservation and payments of the rides. However, a spokesman from the alliance said the headline is not more than speculation, an

48、d Waymo also declined to comment the matter. The companies are already working together. In September last year, the alliance signed a partnership with Google for intelligent infotainment systems in order to integrate the Android operating system. This will allow increasing the product offering incl

49、uding Google Maps, the Google Assistant and the Google Play Store. The agreement was related purely to infotainment systems and did not include the operating system required for future autonomous vehicles produced by the alliance. The alliance plans to introduce robotaxis in,21.Our view:Even though

50、the headline has not been confirmed so far, it would mark a significant step for the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance towards enabling self-driving technologies on their platform. It is not clear yet whether Waymo would give the carmakers access to its valuable brain of the vehicle, meaning the so

51、ftware, and under which terms (licencing fee? access to all data?). Given the volumes sold by the alliance, the partnership would help Waymo to gain access to a globally diversified OEM platform. It remains to be seen which OEMs or suppliers would be able to establish their own AV system, one that w

52、ould be in a position to compete with Waymos solution, which is currently by far the most advanced in the industry. On the European OEM side, we see Daimler as best prepared vs. peers to run robotaxi services in Europe, thanks to its investments in EVs and AVs, and the carmakers strong positioning i

53、n mobility services. Nevertheless, we think that neither Daimler nor its German competitors BMW and VW are currently anywhere close to Waymos know-how in fully autonomous driving. (Continued on page 2.)Full ReportSource: This is an extract from *Pole Position - UBS European Autos Daily by Patrick Hu

54、mmel, CFA published on 6 February 2019Industrial Goods &ServicesAnalyst:Ally Chen+886-2-8722 7347Industrial Goods &ServicesAnalyst:Ally Chen+886-2-8722 7347Asia Bicycle Sector - UBS Evidence Lab inside: Embrace new era for cyclingE-bikes booming in Europe; bike demand contraction in China likely bot

55、tomedA recent UBS Evidence Lab survey indicated that riding e-bikes is considered fashionable nowadays. Of total respondents, 40-50% intended to purchase a new bicycle in the next 12 months. High prices rank as one of the major hurdles in purchasing an e-bike. We think Asian bike makers strategies t

56、o enhance cost-performance (CP) value are on the right track to match rising demand for e-bikes. Meanwhile, a demand contraction in China should ease in 2019 as the threat from bike sharing fades. Giant/Merida already saw overall new bike sales in China turn to moderate growth in late 2018. We initi

57、ate coverage on Shimano (Initiation of coverage ”Scevding ud growth) with a Buy rating and expect its earnings growth to turn stronger on above favorable trends. Shimano trades at lower end of historical trading range. Our PT implies 19% upside.Limited negative impacts from higher tariffsBicycles an

58、d key components exported from China to the US are subject to 10%, or potentially 25%, additional tariffs. Our discussions with key suppliers suggest they plan to re-allocate high profitability/high order growth products to plants outside of China. Hence, we think the P&L impact on Giant, Merida, an

59、d Shimano should be limited.Initiate coverage on Shimano with Buy ratingShimano is the leading supplier of bicycle gear and the second-largest supplier of e-bike motors globally. We take a more positive view than the market on Shimanos potential market-share gain in the e-bike market, leveraging on

60、its expertise in cycling and product portfolio expansion from the high end to the mass market. Shimanos share price corrected due to concerns over higher tariffs in China. However, we think the negative impact is limited. We expect Shimanos e-bike business to push Shimanos earnings growth back to it