aw写作小介argument提纲

1、注意找错点总结：）程序上会不会让人倾向于选择某一项有没有随机抽样和分层抽样数据搜集的时间时间太短会不会确 来不及反应时间太早会不会发生了改变确趋势能不能持续数字百分数或者倍数没有告诉原来的数值绝对数没有告诉总体模糊数具体是多少具体程度和情况或者讲了趋势但是没有讲程度或者数量和地方情况以偏概全例外因果他因削弱方案和举措只有两种选择其他选择所有的决策都要考虑到要 A 不要 B一定要比较A 和 B两种选择相关关系因果关系公司决策利润为目标成本、价格和销量他因削弱竞争对手的情况对比一定要对比到底两方的各是怎样的经常只谈一方问题有没有有没有本来上的不同天然的优势或者天然的劣势假设ame hastily/

2、presumptuouslyt反驳和this seems plausible atglance, but the speaker apparently ignore some However, there is no guaranteeprovide sound evidence to substantiate this at it is this case since the speaker does notmption抱怨！根本就懒得抱怨就到别人那里去了多少人抱怨抱怨数多少程度是否强烈没有抱怨机制来不及反应来不及抱怨53)The following appeared in a health

3、 magazine.可比性巧合说第三说举措结果情况平均情况设计样本大小样本典型性（会不会只有刚好那一部分人愿意填有没有错填The citizens of Forsythe have adopted more healthful lifestyles.Their responses to a recentsurvey showtheir eating habits they conform more closely toernment nutritionalmendationsn they did ten years ago.Furthermore,there has been a fourfo

4、ld increasein sales of food products containing kiran,a substancet a scientific study has shownreducholesterol.This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia,a foodt few of themost healthy citizens regularly eat.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate

5、 theargument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.Forsythe 的居选择了更健康的生活方式。他们对于最近一项的回答显示，他们的饮食比十年前更加贴近的营养建议。而且，含有 kiran 的食品销量增长了四倍，在一次科学研究中发现 kiran 是一种能够降低胆固醇水平的物质。这种趋势同样也被 sulia 的销量下降所证实，sulia是那些最健康的居极少经常食用的食品144)The citizens of Forsythe have adopted more healthful lif

6、estyles.Their responses to a recentsurvey showtheir eating habits they conform more closely toernment nutritionalmendationsn they did ten years ago.Furthermore,there has been a fourfold increasein sales of food products containing kiran,a substancet a scientific study has shownreducholesterol.This t

7、rend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia,a foodt few of thehealthiest citizens regularly eat.Write a response in which you examine the sed and/or unsed aargument.Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these amptions of themptions and what theimplications are for the argument if the amp

8、tions prove unwarranted.Forsythe 的居选择了更健康的生活方式。他们对于最近一项的回答显示，他们的饮食比十年前更加贴近的营养建议。而且，含有 kiran 的食品销量增长了四倍，在一次科学研究中发现 kiran 是一种能够降低胆固醇水平的物质。这种趋势同样也被 sulia 的销量下降所证实，sulia是那些最健康的居极少经常食用的食品。151)Benton City residents have adopted healthier lifestyles.A recent survey of city residents showst the eating habit

9、s of city residents conform more closely toernment nutritionalmendationsn they did ten years ago.During those ten years,local sales of foodproducts containing kiran,a substancet a scientific study has shown reducholesterol,have increased fourfold,while sales of sulia,a food rarely eaten by the healt

10、hiestresidents,have declined dramatically.Because of theseitive changeshe eating habits ofBenton City residents,national average.redictt the obesity ratehe city will soon be well below theWrite a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order todecide whether the pre

11、diction and the argument on which it is based are reasonabe sureto explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.B 市的居民选择了更健康的生活方式。他们对于最近一项的回答显示，他们的饮食比十年前更加贴近的营养建议。而且，含有 kiran 的食品销量增长了四倍，在一次科学研究中发现 kiran 是一种能够降低胆固醇水平的物质。这种趋势同样也被 sulia 的销量下降所证实，sulia是那些最健康的居极少经常食用的食

12、品。由于这些 B 市居民饮食的积极改变，预计该市的肥胖率将很快低于平均水平。不均衡+价格+个人+竞争不一定代表主动选择了更加健康的生活方式：（选写）人数样本典型性 从众心理 bandwagon effect 担心别人的嘲笑故意夸大健康的饮食中如果符合只需要 click the “yes” option；不符合人们必须 bother to provide details of their eating habits.只是少数关心健康的去填写更加贴近相对数字的营养建议是不是一定更加健康Kiran四倍是居民全体可能本来很少或者只是源于少部分人并不能说明一次科学研究收入水平下降可能是降价造成存在地消费

13、廉价的劣等品并不是选择了更加健康的生活方式Sulia健康居民很少食用不代表是不健康其他原因销量下降可能是价格上升造成当地气候变化产量减少不知道健康居民是哪个地方的居民 可能是该地很少生产很难获得可能是口味问题、难吃连不健康的人都吃得少不一定代表选择了更加健康的生活方式只是谈到了两种食品 并没有谈单其他食品只是谈到饮食文娱可能生活压力变大更少锻炼社区之中的人们的关系的积极改变并不一定代表肥胖率会下降到。 提到的生活方式中没有谈到和降低肥胖率有关的饮食（偷换概念）不知道水平是如何的 可能居民的生活方式都更加健康 肥胖率整体下降77)The followingmendation appeared i

14、n a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.Two years ago,the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resortho.During the past two years,tourism in Ocean View has increased,new businesses haveopened there,and Ocean Views tax revenues have risen by 30 percent.Therefore,the

15、 bestway to improve Hopewells economyand generate additional tax revenuesis to build a golfcourse and resort hosimilar to those in Ocean View.Write a response in which you examine the sed and/or unsed amptions of theargument.Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these amptions and what thei

16、mplications are for the argument if the amptions prove unwarranted.两年前Ocean View 建造了一个新的市立客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View 的旅增加了 30。改 Hopewell 的经济，产生的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View 类似的169)球场和度假旅馆。The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of Brindurg to the city council.Two years ago,the town o

17、f Seaside Vista opened a new municipal golf course and resortho.Since then,the Seaside Visourism Board has reported a 20%increase in visitors.Inaddition,local bs reported a steep risehe number of new business loan applicationsthey received this year.The amount of tax money collected by Seaside Vista

18、 has alsoincreased,allowing the town to announce plans to improve Seaside Vistas roads andbridges.Wemend building a similar golf course and resort hoin Brindurg.Wepredictt this project will generate additional tax revenuet the city can use to fundmuch-needed public improvements.Write a response in w

19、hich you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether themendation is likely to have the predicted result.Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate themendation.两年前 SV 建造了一个新的市立球场和度假旅馆。此后，SV 旅游局说旅客增加了 20%，另外当地使 SV 的说他们今年受到的新的商业宣布要计划改善

20、当地的道路和桥梁。申请大幅，同时 SV 的也增加了，并建议 B 也应该建立一个和 SV 类似的以来去扶持当地公共设施的改善。夫球场和度假旅馆。预计该项目会的1.认为经济改善是由于新的.建立造成的相关关系认为是因果关系很可能是其他原因旅客增加景点门票降价、开发了新的景区商业增加利率下降、更加宽松的商业政策认为也应该建造错误类比存在不同之处B 没有旅游景区B 是一个工业城市（industrial city）而不是商业城市（commerl city）旅游城市（tourist）2.3.该项目会增加 可以扶持纵向类比情况有变新的运动出现两年的时间太短还需要进一步观察 可能无法产生足够的来扶持经济整体下滑

21、其他方式可能更加值得 成本消除贸易限制引进新型产业roduce foreign investment132)The following appeared in a letter to the school boardhe town of Centerville.All students should be required to take the drivers education course at Centerville HighSchool.he past two years,several accidents in and around Centerville have involve

22、dteenage drivers.Since a number of parents in Centerville have complainedt they are toobusy to teach their teenagers to drive,some other instruction is nesary to ensuret theseteenagers are safe drivers.Although there are two driving schools in Centerville,parents on atight budget cannot afford to pa

23、y for driving instruction.Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem.Write a response in which you examine the sed and/or unsed aargument.Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these amptions of themptions and what t

24、heimplications are for the argument if the amptions prove unwarranted.Centerville 高中的所有学生都应该被要求参加驾驶员教育课程。在过去两年中，Centerville 周围有几起交通事故涉及了青少年驾驶者。由于 Centerville 的一些家长抱怨说他们太忙没有时间教他们的孩子驾驶，必须有一些其他的课程来保证这些孩子成为安全的驾驶者。尽管在 Centerville 已经有两所驾校，手头不宽裕的家长无法负担驾校学费。因此由学校组织的有效的强制性课程是解决这一严重问题的唯一方案。134)The following a

25、ppeared in a letter to the school boardhe town of Centerville.All students should be required to take the drivers education course at Centerville HighSchool.he past two years,several accidents in and around Centerville have involvedteenage drivers.Since a number of parents in Centerville have compla

26、inedt they are toobusy to teach their teenagers to drive,some other instruction is nesary to ensuret theseteenagers are safe drivers.Although there are two driving schools in Centerville,parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction.Therefore an effective and mandatoryprogra

27、m sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate theargument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.Centerville 高中的所有学生都应该被要求参加驾驶员教育课程。在过去两年中，Centerville 周围有几起交

28、通事故涉及了青少年驾驶者。由于 Centerville 的一些家长抱怨说他们太忙没有时间教他们的孩子驾驶，必须有一些其他的课程来保证这些孩子成为安全的驾驶者。尽管在 Centerville 已经有两所驾校，手头不宽裕的家长无法负担驾校学费。因此由学校组织的有效的强制性课程是解决这一严重问题的唯一方案。136)The following appeared in a letter to the school boardhe town of Centerville.All students should be required to take the drivers education course

29、 at Centerville HighSchool.he past two years,several accidents in and around Centerville have involvedteenage drivers.Since a number of parents in Centerville have complainedt they are toobusy to teach their teenagers to drive,some other instruction is nesary to ensuret theseteenagers are safe drive

30、rs.Although there are two driving schools in Centerville,parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction.Therefore an effective and mandatoryprogram sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem.Write a response in which you discuss what questions w

31、ould need to be answered in order todecide whether themendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonab sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate themendation.eCenterville 高中的所有学生都应该被要求参加驾驶员教育课程。在过去两年中，Centerville 周围有几起交通事故涉及了青少年驾驶者。由于 Centerville 的一些家长抱怨说他

32、们太忙没有时间教他们的孩子驾驶，必须有一些其他的课程来保证这些孩子成为安全的驾驶者。尽管在 Centerville 已经有两所驾校，手头不宽裕的家长无法负担驾校学费。因此由学校组织的有效的强制性课程是解决这一严重问题的唯一方案。1.统计数据问题crossing sitesseveral 太模糊 不知道是否只有几场 at the most heavily used事故的严重程度不知道是因为什么原因天气 、 路况 narrowdriveway2.只有三种方式可以教孩子开车家长、驾校、学校出资建立青少年驾校 补贴在驾校学习的学生政比起家长和学校更低可以聘请最有经验的可以组织教育3.必须强制意味着学校

33、的驾校一定更便宜没有提供信息不一定愿意只是一些家长抱怨 有可能有很多家长有时间教孩子很多家庭可以负担得起驾校学费7)The following is amendation from thof Directors of Monarch Books.Wemendt Monarch Books open a cafin its store. Monarch, having been inbusiness at the same location for moren twenty years, has a large customer base becauseit is known for its w

34、ide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the cafe wouldattract more customers. Space could be made for the cafe by discontinuing the childrens booksection, which will probablye less popular givent the most recent national censusindicated a significant declinehe percentage of the popu

35、lation under age ten. Opening acafe will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, whichrecently opened its own caf.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order todecide whether themendation is likely to have the predicted

36、 result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate themendation.建议 m 书店在电内开设一个咖啡厅。M 书店在目前的店址上已经经营了 20 多年，并由于其广泛的种类而拥有了庞大的客户群体。很明显，新开设的咖啡厅会吸引的客户，空间可以通过撤出儿童书籍柜台来获得，因为最近一次显示 10 岁以下儿童的比率显著下降，所以儿童书就可能没以前那么畅销。开设新咖啡厅将会使 m 吸引设了咖啡厅的 r 书店展开竞争。98)客户并更好的与最近刚开The following is a

37、mendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a largecustomer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee s

38、hop, announceditsention to open a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store cafe inthe space currently devoted to childrens books. Given recent national census data indicating asignificant declinehe percentage of the population under age ten, sales of childrens booksare likely t

39、o decline. By replacing its childrens books section wiincrease profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.caf, Monarch Books canWrite a response in which you examine the sed and/or unsed aargument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these amptions of themptions and what theimpli

40、cations are for the argument if the amptions prove unwarranted.自打 20 年前在 C 开设以来，M 书店就因其友善的氛围和广泛的三个月，B&B，一家综合咖啡书店，宣布其要在 C 开设新店。咖啡厅，空间可以通过撤出儿童书籍柜台来获得，因为最近一次种类而拥有了一大批顾客。建议 m 书店在电内开设一个显示 10 岁以下儿童的比率显著下降，所以儿童书就可能没以前那么畅销。开设新咖啡厅将会使 m 吸引客户并更好的与B&B 书店展开竞争。99)The following is amendation from the business mana

41、ger of Monarch Books.Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a largecustomer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announceditsention to open

42、a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store cafe inthe space currently devoted to childrens books. Given recent national census data indicating asignificant declinehe percentage of the population under age ten, sales of childrens booksare likely to decline. By replacing its chil

43、drens books section wiincrease profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.caf, Monarch Books canWrite a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate theargument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.自打 20 年前在 C 开设以来，M 书店就因其友善的氛围和广

44、泛的三个月，B&B，一家综合咖啡书店，宣布其要在 C 开设新店。咖啡厅，空间可以通过撤出儿童书籍柜台来获得，因为最近一次种类而拥有了一大批顾客。建议 m 书店在电内开设一个显示 10 岁以下儿童的比率显著下降，所以儿童书就可能没以前那么畅销。开设新咖啡厅将会使 m 吸引好的与B&B 书店展开竞争。客户并更一定要对百分数要敏感；两者比较一定要双方都谈到比率下降数目不一定下降可能数目增多可能 C 的儿童数目增多，但是其他地方减少更的情况不一定能代表C 的情况多儿童数目下降，不一定 读书少可能教育运动鼓励儿童读书 尽管下降，但是每个孩子需要读的书增加 那么对于书的需求不会下降孩子减少 花费减少多买书

45、咖啡店而不是儿童书籍咖啡店尽管吸引假设儿童书籍带来的利润少于咖啡店带来的利润人但是他们不一定买书可能的人在咖啡店里面读书而不是买书儿童书籍减少损失可能很大可能儿童类书籍之前是最畅销的书籍陪伴孩子来的家长也会更少买书损害 wide selection 的名声更好地展开竞争不知道BB 的情况可能这家综合咖啡书店完全比不上M那么即使不需要咖啡店也可以很好与其竞争，而且还节约了建咖啡店的成本有可能本身这就是不成功的一种模式其他的方案提供折扣更新书籍打66)The following appeared in a memo from the owner of a chain of cheese store

46、s located throughout the United Ses.For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses.Last year,however,all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin.Furthermore,a recent survey by Chee

47、ses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory,the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of importedcheese and concentrate

48、primarily on domestic cheeses.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether themendation is likely to have the predicted result.Be sure to explainhow the answers to these questions would help to evaluate themendation.很多年来的所有连锁店都储备了很多种类的国产奶酪

49、和进口奶酪。然而去年，的店里五种销量最高的奶酪都是威斯康星出产的 cheddar 奶酪。而且，最近一次由 Cheese of the World杂志所举行的显示，其订阅者对于国产奶酪的倾向性越来越高。由于公司可以通过限制库存来减少开支，在于国产奶酪。107)所有连锁店增加的最好方式就是停止贮备很多进口奶酪而主要集中The following appeared in a memo from the business manager of a chain of cheese storeslocated throughout the United Ses.For many years all the

50、 stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses.Last year,however,all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin.Furthermore,a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preferen

51、ce for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory,the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of importedcheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.Write a response in which yo

52、u examine the sed and/or unsed aargument.Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these amptions of themptions and what theimplications are for the argument if the amptions prove unwarranted.很多年来的所有连锁店都储备了很多种类的国产奶酪和进口奶酪。然而去年，的店里五种销量最高的奶酪都是威斯康星出产的 cheddar 奶酪。而且，最近一次由 Cheese of the World杂志所举行的显示

53、，其订阅者对于国产奶酪的倾向性越来越高。由于公司可以通过限制库存来减少开支，在于国产奶酪。108)所有连锁店增加的最好方式就是停止贮备很多进口奶酪而主要集中The following appeared in a memo from the owner of a chain of cheese stores locatedthroughout the United Ses.For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses.Last

54、 year,however,all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin.Furthermore,a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.Since our company can reduce expenses by limi

55、ting inventory,the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of importedcheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate theargument and explain how the evid

56、ence would weaken or strengthen the argument.很多年来的所有连锁店都储备了很多种类的国产奶酪和进口奶酪。然而去年，的店里五种销量最高的奶酪都是威斯康星出产的 cheddar 奶酪。而且，最近一次由 Cheese of the World杂志所举行的显示，其订阅者对于国产奶酪的倾向性越来越高。由于公司可以通过限制库存来减少开支，在于国产奶酪。所有连锁店增加的最好方式就是停止贮备很多进口奶酪而主要集中要什么不要什么？比较一定要到底增加的意味：增加不一定意味着多一定要注意不同也的样本数目和典型性类比清楚一方怎么样另一方怎么样 或者至少另一方怎么样说明的人喜

57、欢国产奶酪是如何进行的？多少人参与了订阅者的情况是否具有代表性？可能只是订阅者之中的一部分可能根本没有这些地方的人订阅这种杂志即便是合理的上升的偏好能否说明本地的奶酪exceed 进口的奶酪可能原来本地奶酪的消费量如此之低以至于尽管上升仍然低新店的销售情况来和其他店类比新店的情况和其他地方不同新店 sell domestic cheeses at a considerablediscount to cerate its grand opening and establish its customer base.新店所开的地方当地人比较喜欢吃 domestic而其他店的情况可能实际上还是 imp

58、orted 卖的比较好减少花销增加利润减少花销是唯一方法增加花销一定可以增加利润可以增加销量 advertisingns减少的收入一定小于减少的花销但事实上尽管卖得最好的是。但是可能 domestic虽然各种卖得相对较少，但是domestic 的总销量将会造成巨大的损失，带来的收入也，这样的话如果停止。152)The following appeared in a memo to thof directors of Bargain Brand Cereals.One year ago weroduced ourproduct,Bargain Brand breakfast cereal.Our

59、 very lowpriquickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies.Although thecompanies producing the trands have since tried to compete with us by lowering theirpriand although several plan toroduce their own budget brands,not once have weneeded to raise our prito continue making a

60、 profit.Given our sucs in selling cereal,wemendt Bargain Brand now expand its business and begarketing other low-pricedfood products as quickly assible.Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order todecide whether themendation and the argument on which it i