量化历史班版jlrpku

1、Do the rich die old?orDo the old die rich?orDoes inequality matter?12Lionel Kesztenbaum (INED)Jean-Laurent Rosenthal (Caltech)The democratization of longevity?Wealth and mortality in Paris, 1880-1914.Long Term Wealth Inequality in Paris34OutlineContext ParisData Death, e, Sewers e and Life Expectanc

2、yInfrastructure Infrastructure and Life ExpectancyConclusion5Context67Life expectancy at Age 5 in Paris and France, 1817-20008Life expectancy at Age 5 in Paris and France, 1817-20009Life expectancy at Age 5 in Paris and France, 1880-1940Data1011The administrative divisions of ParisAnnuaire statistiq

3、ue de la ville de Paris1213Life expectancy at Age 5 in Paris and France, 1880-190514Life expectancy at age 5 by quartiers in Paris, 188115Life expectancy within Paris, the top and bottom decile16Life expectancy gains between 1881 and 1911 (%)Life and e1718Average rents by quartiers in Paris, 1878Dig

4、ressionRents, wealth, and eWhat is the right source to measure some version of private resourcesRents, average rents , fractiles of the distributionWealth at death eEach have their advantages and disadvantageFor our purposes what matters is that they are highly correlated at the neighborhood level s

5、o choice of measure does not matterFor instance e in the 1890s is highly correlated (0.8 or better) to rents, and so is wealth.1920Life expectancy and share of poor households (Fig 5)21Life expectancy and share of poor households in 187622Life Expectancy in 1910 as predicted by the 1880 Rent-Life Ex

6、pectancy RelationshipImplicationThere is always (even before water infrastructure diffuses) a severe gradient from e to life expectancyThe gradient steepens and then flattens precisely in the period where water infrastructure diffuses. This is not a coincidence23SanitationsWhy we love sewers24Digres

7、sionthe land of Black GoldWhat is a sewer?What goes in the sewer?Elimination of waste water(Indirect connection)Elimination of waste solids (direct connection)Waste treatmentWe observe movement from 1 or 2. the issue of 3 is not so relevant because Paris has access to distant water sources2526Share

8、of buildings connected to sewers271897190019071913Table II Cross section Regressions of Sewer Connection Rate on RentsSewer Connection Rate Sewer Connection RateRents0.07 (0.006)0.11 (0.007)FE-NeighborhoodYESFE-YearYESConstant0.32 (0.06)0.41 (0.018)R0.060.96N2320232028Table III: Dependent Variable L

9、ife Expectancy-Age 1 All Parisian NeighborhoodsSCR3.93(0.114)1.33(0.225)3.02(0.087)1.01(0.23)Rent4.45(0.102)1.69(0.281)3.74(0.85)1.31(0.29)Constant50.15(0.149)51.96(0.473)50.09(0.104)52.43(0.468)50.1(0.84)52.11(0.47)FE-NBD&YEaYESYESYESN232023202320232023202320Adj-R20.340.900.440.890.630.89Dependent

10、Variable Life Expectancy-Age 1 Center (Arrondissements 1-11)SCR3.51(0.14)-0.67(0.37)2.87(0.10)-0.13(0.38)Rent3.81(0.12)0.25(0.42)3.30(0.10)0.29(0.43)Constant51.96(0.14)51.95(0.47)51.09(0.14)52.58(0.51)51.00(0.11)52.64(0.53)N127612761276127612761276Adj-R20.320.890.410.880.620.88Dependent Variable Lif

11、e Expectancy-Age 1 Periphery (arrondissements 12-20)SCR4.07(0.16)2.73(0.31)3.14(0.13)2.1(0.33)Rent4.93(0.19)2.87(0.37)3.83(0.16)1.94(0.39)Constant47.99(0.15)46.17(0.52)49.27(0.16)48.38(0.61)49.23(0.13)47.7(0.61)N104410441044104410441044Adj-R20.370.890.380.880.590.8829MenLog Mortality RiskNo Fixed Ef

12、fectsTime and Space Fixed Effects1-45-1920-3940-5960-691-45-1920-3940-5960-69Sewer connection R-0.37(0.01)-0.19(0.01)-0.09 (0.01)-0.12 (0.01)-0.04(0.01)-0.25(0.03)-0.09(0.03)-0.17 (0.02)-0.10 (0.01)-0.034(0.013)Constant4.81 (0.01)4.20(0.01)5.04(0.01)5.97(0.01)6.51 (0.01)4.74 (0.07)4.18(0.07)5.31(0.0

13、4)6.03(0.03)6.53(0.02)Adj-R20.370.200.060.190.070.680.450.710.760.42Rent-0.34(0.01)-0.17(0.01)-0.23(0.01)-0.17 (0.01)-0.04(0.01)-0.38(0.04)-0.13(0.04)-0.28 (0.02)-0.14(0.02)-0.01(0.015)Constant4.86 (0.01)4.25(0.01)5.05(0.01)5.99(0.01)6.51 (0.01)4.70 (0.07)4.1(0.07)5.33(0.04)6.03(0.03)6.53(0.02)Adj-R

14、20.300.140.400.360.060.690.480.680.750.39Sewer connection rate -0.31(0.01)-0.16(0.01)-0.037 (0.01)-0.08(0.01)-0.039(0.01)-0.17(0.03)-0.06(0.03)-0.13(0.02)-0.082(0.01)-0.034(0.013)Rent-0.27(0.01)-0.13(0.01)-0.23(0.01)-0.15(0.01)-0.036(0.01)-0.32(0.04)-0.13(0.04)-0.20 (0.03)-0.087(0.02)-0.02(0.015)Con

15、stant4.81 (0.01)4.20(0.01)5.04(0.01)5.97(0.01)6.50(0.01)4.73(0.07)4.1(0.07)5.30(0.04)6.03(0.03)6.53(0.03)Adj-R20.560.290.430.470.110.690.480.720.770.4230WomenLog Mortality RiskNo Fixed EffectsTime and Space Fixed Effects1-45-1920-3940-5960-691-45-1920-3940-5960-69Sewer connection rate -0.36(0.01)-0.

16、19(0.01)-0.10 (0.01)-0.16 (0.01)-0.07(0.01)-0.18(0.03)-0.14(0.03)-0.11 (0.02)-0.09 (0.01)-0.035(0.013)Constant4.75 (0.01)4.16(0.01)4.83(0.01)5.58(0.01)6.39(0.01)4.55(0.07)4.14(0.07)5.03(0.04)5.51(0.03)6.39(0.03)Adj-R20.360.180.060.220.120.680.400.780.770.53Rent-0.33(0.01)-0.19(0.01)-0.30(0.01)-0.20(

17、0.01)-0.07(0.01)-0.38(0.04)-0.18(0.04)-0.27 (0.02)-0.14(0.02)-0.021(0.015)Constant4.82 (0.01)4.22(0.01)4.85(0.01)5.61(0.01)6.40(0.01)4.84 (0.07)4.10(0.07)5.04(0.04)5.51(0.03)6.40(0.03)Adj-R20.270.170.550.370.130.700.470.770.770.52Sewer connection rate -0.31(0.01)-0.15(0.01)-0.029 (0.01)-0.11(0.01)-0

18、.054(0.01)-0.11(0.04)-0.09(0.04)-0.06(0.02)-0.074(0.02)-0.037(0.013)Rent-0.26(0.01)-0.15(0.01)-0.30(0.01)-0.18(0.01)-0.056(0.01)-0.32(0.05)-0.18(0.05)-0.22 (0.03)-0.094(0.02)-0.09(0.018)Constant4.75(0.01)4.17(0.01)4.83(0.01)5.58(0.01)6.39(0.01)4.54(0.07)4.13(0.07)5.02(0.04)5.50(0.03)6.39(0.03)Adj-R2

19、0.540.300.570.500.200.680.400.780.770.533132Sewers 1900Rents1900A political economy digressionInequality is very high = taxes are very lowSewers (and other infrastructure is expensive)So not public goods but because excludable user fees significantInitial period of purely voluntary adoption failsTwo

20、 positions. Mandatory and generalMandatory on new buildingsWhat kind of demand is there for rental units connected to the sewer vs not.Can assume rents will increaseBut not that the increase will cover the cost.33Some times you run out of variance(All controls)Second stage dependent variable: log (p

21、robability of death /1000)MenWomenAge 1-4Age 5-19Age 20-39Age 40-59Age 60-79Age 1-4Age 5-19Age 20-39Age 40-59Age 60-79SCR-0.65(0.20)0.19(0.20)0.11(0.13)0.07(0.09)0.26(0.10)-0.32(0.19)-0.37(0.22)-0.25(0.12)-0.08(0.11)-0.01(0.09)Fiscal Rent-0.43(0.08)-0.26(0.08)-0.30(0.05)-0.16(0.03)-0.03(0.04)-0.22(0.07)-0.21(0.08)-0.32(0.04)-0.12(0.04)-0.03(0.03)Constant4.61(0.10)4.00(0.10)5.25(0.06)6.14(0.05)6.69(0.05)4.76(0.10)4.18(0.11)4.98(0.06)5.72(0.06)6.45(0.04)Neighborhood and Year F.E.YESYESYESYESYES