中国GDP生产核算的基本情况及主要问题TheOvervie

1、中国年度消费法和收入法GDP核算 Chinas Annual GDP Account by Production and Income Approaches张冬佑国家统计局 国民经济核算司 2021年3月16日Zhang DongyouDepartment of National Account, NBS16th March, 2021 .主要内容 Main Contents一、产业部门分类 Classification of Industrial Sectors二、资料来源 Data Source三、行业添加值核算的详细推算方法 Specific Estimation Method of I

2、ndustrial Value-added四、近期所做的主要改良 major improvements to be made 五、面临的挑战 Challenges .一、产业部门分类 Classification of industrial sectors第一级分类直接采用国家统计局2003年制定的，但在第三产业中剔除国际组织部分。 The first level classification directly applies the “Regulation on Classification of Three Sectors promulgated by NBS in 2003, but e

3、liminating the international part in the third sector. 第二级分类根本上采用新国民经济行业分类中的门类。 The second level classification basically applies the class categories in the new Classification of National Economic Industries.产业部门分类 Classification of industrial sectors第三级分类根本上采用新国民经济行业分类中的大类，房地产业分到中类行业，并添加了居民自有住房效力业

4、。 The third level classification basically applies the section in the new Classification of National Economic Industries, putting real estate sector in group sectors and adding resident self-owned housing service. 第四级分类和第三级分类根本一致，同时根据多年来GDP核算数据的实践需求情况，并参照其他国家的分类情况，对采矿业、制造业、电力、燃气及水的消费和供应业进展了细化 The fo

5、urth level classification and third level classification are basically consistent, and at the same time, specifying the mining, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, gas and water by referring to the classification practice of other countries.年度GDP核算，按94个行业。 Annual GDP account

6、, by 94 sectors.季度GDP核算，按14个行业。 Quarterly GDP account, by 14 sectors. 一、产业部门分类续 Classification of industrial sectors (cont.).二、资料来源 Data source国家统计调查数据:普查数据，全面调查数据，抽样调查数据； National statistical survey data: census data, comprehensive survey data, sample survey data;部门财务数据：主要指2021年建立的18个部门效力业财务情况报表； F

7、inancial data of administrative department: mainly refers to the financial statements of 18 service sectors established in 2021;部门行政记录：财政数据，税务数据，中国人民银行、保监会、证监会数据，工商局数据，民政部数据等。 Administrative record of the sectors: financial data, tax data, data of Peoples Bank of China, Insurance Regulatory Committe

8、e and Securities Regulatory Committee, of Industrial and Commercial Administration, and of the Ministry of Civil Affairs. .三、行业添加值核算的详细推算方法Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account消费法 Production approach: 4个行业：农业、林业、畜牧业、渔业 Four industries: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry,

9、and fishing消费法和收入法混合 combination of production approach and income approach： 工业中的39个行业 39 industrial industries 收入法 Income approach: 其他51个行业 other 51 industries .三、行业添加值核算的详细推算方法Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account季度 GDP Quarterly GDP 现价核算 Current price account 添加值率法：添加值总产出添加

10、值率 主要目的外推法：添加值上年同期添加值 相关目的速度 Method of value-added rate: value-added=total output value-added rate Extrapolation method of major indicators: value-added= value-added of the same period of last year the growth rate of relevant indicators 不变价核算 Constant price account 价钱指数缩减和物量外推 Price index deflation

11、and volume extrapolation.三、行业添加值核算的详细推算方法(续)Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account (cont.)年度核算 Annual Account一直接计算法 Direct calculation method利用根底资料直接计算该行业的总产出和添加值。 Directly calculating the total output and value-added by basic material.在农业、工业、铁路运输业、邮政业、金融业、社会福利业等51个行业采用直接计算法，占9

12、4个行业的55，占GDP 的63。 Applying direct calculation method in the 51 sectors including agriculture, industry, railway transportation, post service, finance, and social welfare , taking 55% in the 94 sectors and 63% in GDP.三、行业添加值核算的详细推算方法(续) Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account (co

13、nt.)二添加值外扩法 The method of value-added extrapolation首先利用根底资料计算添加值，然后利用基准年度普查年度根底资料计算的添加值占该行业添加值的比重进展外扩，得到该行业的添加值。 First of all, the basic data is used to calculate value-added, and then the ratio of value-added get from the basic data of basic year (census year) to the value-added of the whole sector

14、 is applied to extrapolate to get the value-added of the sector. 在建筑业、零售零售业、住宿餐饮业等31个行业采用添加值外扩法，占94个行业的33，占GDP的33 The value-added extrapolation method is applied in 31 sectors including architecture, retail and wholesale, and accommodation and catering.三、行业添加值核算的详细推算方法(续) Specific estimation method

15、of industrial value-added account (cont.)三相关目的推算法 Estimation of relevant indicators以基准年度普查年度总产出或添加值为根底，利用可以反映行业开展的一些目的的开展速度，做为总产出或添加值的开展速度，进展外推，得到该行业添加值。 Taking the total output and value-added of basic year (census year) as the basis, and applying the growth rate of the indicators reflecting the de

16、velopment of the industries as the growth rate of total output and value-added, to extrapolate and get the value-added of the industry. 仓储业、计算机效力业、居民效力业等11个行业采用相关目的推算法，占94个行业的12，占GDP 的4 The estimation method of relevant indicators is applied in the 11 sectors including storage, computer service and

17、resident service, taking 12% in the 94 sectors and 4% in GDP. .四、近期所做的主要改良Improvements to be made一个体运营户添加值核算方法发生变化 Changes have been taken place in the account method of the value-added of self-employed个体运营户添加值根据税收资料和清查户数间接推算。 Indirect Estimation is made to the value-added of self-employed according

18、 to the tax data and the number of individual business. 根本方法是：首先计算每个行业的户均税收额，然后利用各行业普查户数乘以户均税收额得到每个行业的税收收入，再除以这个行业的规定税率得到总产出，最后利用相关行业小规模企业的添加值率计算得到添加值。 Basic method: First, the average individual business tax revenue of each sector is calculated, and then the tax revenue of each industry is get by t

19、he equation of number of census households multiplied by average individual business tax revenue, and after that the total output is get by being divided by the regulated tax rate, and at last, the value-added is calculated by applying the value-added rate of small-scaled enterprises of relevant ind

20、ustries. .四、近期所做的主要改良续 Improvements to be made (cont.)二改良金融业总产出的计算方法Optimizing the calculation method of the total financial output 间接计算的银行中介效力产出采用了2021年结合国SNA引荐的参考利率法，即间接计算的银行中介效力产出等于银行从事存款活动获得的间接纳入加上从事贷款活动获得的间接纳入。 The reference interest rate recommended by UN SNA in 2021 is applied to FISIM， e.g F

21、ISIM is equal to indirect income from deposit activity plus indirect income from lending activity. 银行业总产出和证券业总产出不再包含投资收益。 The total output of banking Industry and security Industry no longer include invest income. .四、近期所做的主要改良续 Improvements to be made (cont.)三完善证券买卖印花税的处置方法 Optimizing the treatment

22、to the stamp tax of stock exchange 根据GDP核算原那么，仅将机构交纳的证券买卖印花税作为证券业的消费税处置，个人从事证券买卖活动交纳的证券买卖印花税不属于证券业的消费税。 According to the GDP account principle, only the stamp tax in stock exchange handed by institutions is treated as production tax, and the stamp tax in stock exchange handed by individuals involved

23、 does not belong to the production tax of security sector. .四、近期所做的主要改良续 Improvements to be made (cont.)五改良了部分行业不变价添加值核算方法 The account method to the value-added of constant price of certain sectors is improved 金融业 Finance -银行业:采用价钱指数缩减法，利用存贷款利率和同业拆借利率构建银行业缩减指数； Banking: the deflator is established b

24、y price index deflation method and by applying the deposit and loan interest rate and inter-bank rate; -证券业：利用股票成交量的开展速度外推计算； Securities: volume extrapolating by applying the growth rate of stock exchange. -保险业：采用物量外推与价钱指数缩减相结合的方法； Insurance: applying the combination method of volume extrapolation a

25、nd price index deflation. -其他金融业：利用银行业缩减指数缩减现价添加值获得。 Other financial sectors: gained by applying the banking deflation index to deflate the value-added of current price. .四、近期所做的主要改良续 Improvements to be made (cont.)居民自有住房效力 Owner occupied dwelling service 居民自有住房效力不变价添加值以居民住房面积作为物量目的，采用物量外推法计算。 The v

26、alue-added of constant price of Owner occupied dwelling service takes the resident living area as volume index and applies the volume extrapolation method to calculate. .四、近期所做的主要改良续 Improvements to be made (cont.)零售业不变价核算 Account of wholesale trade at constant price 对于从事零售活动的部分利用工业品出厂价钱指数和原资料燃料动力价钱指数简单平均进展缩减，对于与关税有关的部分参考进口价钱指数进展缩减。 To those engaged in wholesale activities, the simple average of the cost price of industrial product and the