宏观观察第12期（总第281期）：发达经济体面临“三低”困境的原因、风险和未来挑战~基于欧美的经验证据

1、 fl ” , $ !%008 flktdTflfi,fl fl!$,$tQfiSfiS” QA”T 3fi$fl,d tfl, fl yfifl$a9Tfl,$flflfiSfifi$ fi,fifiQA” ,QA” fl,yfl$T, flg ,.$fiJfi3 “ fi,1, fi&”fi384ifiGfl3%008 fl,$flW 13Tfl W%008P%018 3,$ 308 yfi 1.68%S0.F% 0.%,fl W1,FP%00F 3 3.%8%S%.%F% 1.%Tflk,%fl$ g ,c$y 3%fik fi,）flTkpfi,fififi%,$fifi Tqfl$,

2、fipa,fiQ” uflflfl$aT$ %0 d ,0 fi, fi,Sfi”Tflfif , fl$k tdfi fiTe 16Uflifi3Q648.006.004.002.000.00-2.00-4.00-6.00-8.00WGDPC CNGDPC $GDPC :WEnA fi3s4fififif$ bfl,y fi$T%fi:,fi;efi$Rfi,yfik:,yfifi e,fiflkTfl$fifl$fi,kT k fifiT %014 $ 913 fl,fl$!$T tfl flW %3T%01 fi, fl yfi 1.4% 0.,6%, %008 flfi 1.F6% 1

3、.41%T$ %0 d ,0 fifi ,%008 flfl 0.% flT25.0020.0015.0010.005.000.00-5.00W$CN2%e Oe 6Ufl3Q641971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019:WEnA fi $,fi$fl$, ,fi$ $y$ T$ %0 d ,0 fifl,。$ T%008 fl,!$,$ fl flfiQfi %fifT8fi5 Kifi 2f,kfiflfl ,fityfi,fl t

4、;efi fTfl8fi5fiJf$5ifi 2fl f,yk;Qyfi$,$kq fiQ$” Tflfikfifi$fl!Tfi$ 3fi,kfid flT394UflXfifififl,%1 dfi,l fif fl4W 33T$fiflfi;:f3, %01, 10 $fl a Tfifi$a:8fi5$flflfi 2fifix,%000 fl flfifi 6.%,%00F flfifi .%,f%fl %.% fiflflTQsM o T$,fl fi$afiTfl8fi5fifi3 2$ %0 d ,0 fifi,fi:fl !$,fifl,fifi;:fisfl 1%fift

5、8 fiT7.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.00-1.00W:flifiK$:6$OfiK(P_fi) C;:fiK($afiK)e %6$hfiVfi3Q641999-042000-022000-122001-102002-082003-062004-042005-022005-122006-102007-082008-062009-042010-022010-122011-102012-082013-062014-042015-022015-122016-102017-082018-062019-04:WEnA fis,“ ”3flfl $A) ! +%008 f

6、l,QA”$fifi!fl,cg 4,fifi fiTQA”% $,flflhSfifik fl$TA$pflfl $ A! fiT384NfiThfiifi%fiifi Tb%1 dfi,lflfiRfiTi,flfi,%fl KTa lp%fiRfifi Tflflmfi,$,S$SSfiRfi_ fi 1.%G,S$S$fiS$_fi 1%,$fi_fi 0.%TklbaflfiRfifi$T %1 dfiAfi（ ,$fiRfi （fiTfl,flW 43Tfi$ $fi$,tfiRfi T,$D!a,flfiTcfl% kfiflfi,e,fifiaefi,fi bf T353025

7、20151050CFW$e 46$ flD. flV!e3Q64:TS.urBauIC1gInIGEgAnaFOE 1urIMaM 5aJan/abEnBM 7CCEgB3s4T-1fifi6fiJfl 1.fiTfifi $o-hflfl i kTh %008 F$ 140 /,flffl4T%$yyffiTfly, $D$flfitfi yT9（$D ,$Dfl,flfit$D fii,fitSfifiQAfl”Tfitfii,tfih $,yfi ,afih kTflyfi,fia，ty fiTfl,yfif :ffiQ”fifi$ flfi4fi$fl4,fidyfifiT4fi fi

8、5J-8flfi5tJfi32_U$ (V):$ J E $_U$ (V):WTI E $160.00140.00120.00100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.00e 6T-3Q6y/42007-01-022007-05-252007-10-172008-03-122008-08-042008-12-242009-05-202009-10-122010-03-082010-07-292010-12-202011-05-132011-10-052012-02-292012-07-232012-12-122013-05-082013-09-302014-02-242014-0

9、7-172014-12-082015-05-042015-09-242016-02-182016-07-122016-12-012017-04-272017-09-152018-02-062018-06-272018-11-142019-04-052019-08-26:WEnA fih%fifii KTfl, q fifiW 63Tfifi,%008 flTfl,T $3$,fl3flflTfl, $ fifi 1.4% 1.,%W%$ %008 ,flfi 1.,% 1.81%3,fl 3.64% 4.1%T fi38X-5 fifi-15”t%fiTb28.006.004.002.000.

10、00-2.00-4.00-6.00W: :$& $H$:C;:GDP:L :=8H$:19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018e 66V!3Q64:WEnA fi.$flfiJfl W4nCFaMEIn TarDBMEnD3%,iQfifi $ fi$T1,0 fl$fi T$Sq %0 d F0 fififi T, tflfi,fit $ 1Tfififi,lflfifi k fliQ , ，T，fi3 f ,kfi,$ fiT%fi fl T%.6

11、fl3fi5z$Jfi$fl3fit!fl$flfi, tRfifi$,fi t flT,fi $;e,;efi:,fl3fi tfi fi$T1 94C20053;f=:5+ /&fl=:5 ,y (,Q7 =:5+ fi =:5 , $fiofK$flWx,fl$fi$ fi3$,fi$ ,$,8hfiSkf T394!q$7$fifi1.ifi$Ffi %008 fl ,flQ$, fi$fifi,$flfl，Tfi,fl;, Q,%flf, $Sfi :flk,TfififiT$fifi fi;,fiM f$,QT fl,$iyfifiafl,y,fiffl ,!Tflfi3fif f

12、i fiT.7$fififlflflfi$i, fi ofi,t fi$TfofiMf , tfi$ Tfifi fi ,fisflflT ,“ ”%fl54yfi384/ifi”/fi”iKJflx$fi flflfi, lfifi;efi,%fix$f W$ 13TfiQfi ”fi$t$fi fl,tfl fiflkkfl4TQfi”fik flfiflfl fiTfif,fl fi$Sa,flfi ,flflT ;efi kfi;e,afifi;e fi fifl$,fitQ PfPfifP ”fl!fi,8;efi;kflfl TflflkTfitfiRflfi,fi$aafi ,f

13、ififlflTflfi$f, fi$fi$, tfi T 16USflGfi7 flD. fl3Q64WCN$2007Q12018Q12007Q12018Q12007Q12018Q11hfi95.076.458.658.555.854.760hfi61.5101.070.6101.4165.3223.8ki;hfi64.872.387.2102.5103.298.8:442U3FIbaF 0BbM 6InEMIr93s4/fi”/”fifiofi, T$fi, yfifiSTlfl!$fi,lfl fi$t kW F 83Ti,fle kt %8,%:$fi %00 kt 10%:fifik

14、t 80%2:$fifikt 163%T fi,fi,kfiTfi$fifi Q$”,$ fit$TB ,$fi flflfi,k3fi,8 T2 $ ,%fi 0fi 2013 6 $ 30 $o30,000.0025,000.0020,000.0015,000.0010,000.005,000.000.008,000.007,000.006,000.005,000.004,000.003,000.002,000.001,000.000.00W:Mfl/& 7:$CGb $fi:3$e 7Cb e 76$fiflVfi2005-012005-092006-052007-012007-0920

15、08-052009-012009-092010-052011-012011-092012-052013-012013-092014-052015-012015-092016-052017-012017-092018-052019-012019-09:WEnA fi120001000080006000400020000CN:fifi C :KC $:fi %3:fi :fiC :flK$ e 86$flVfi2005-012005-082006-032006-102007-052007-122008-072009-022009-092010-042010-112011-062012-012012

16、-082013-032013-102014-052014-122015-072016-022016-092017-042017-112018-062019-012019-08:WEnA fi394/ifi” /”JifiTfi% 308 fiy,%fi $fi,8fi$r T kflflfi,fi ,fifiT,fiyt ,t ,fitQPPfiP” TQfi” t ,fityyfiTbfl,Q”s$fififl$T85/”$fi; 7 7 s5/”X8-15; fl795/” fl4 5flfiDfiNfi2fikAAfl;efi$fK,;eyfifiRfifl$T,$ 384ifififl

17、flKfi462 fl %0%0 fipi，,%01, $ty T%01, ,flfifl$fi $，fifl %0%0fiRTp,i%fl %01, fit fi$, %a T$flQA”flfl,fl fi,p$fiRfi fi（,fififlafl,$A,fl3gT%0%0 fi, ，Tfl 462 18, Kfii,A ypflflxT% $ % $,462 l“fl、fi m 3%0 fik$,$qfi ,fl 462 ， f,%0%0 ， %0%0 1 $f 0.1 K$yA 3.%T % fifl4,Mg T3s4Ufl$1.fi3 fi5XfiJf$ $%01% fi,fif

18、fifilQb pT fitfi$fi,Qfifif Qfi”$fi$Tflfifi$,$fififi$ $A%:fi,fifl%fi$,fi fiR$aTnQ ,fi,nfi fi fi$ 4$a ,8flyTQ b$Q %014 flQfi”fi,;b$ ， $T$, T,$fiT$,fi%fi%,flfi$fl ?%flfi$flk$fifi$?$ iQMgT.; 7fiJ$%010 fi,S%fi$ %008 fl 3$Tfi $,fi%fl aW ,3,fl flt %008 fl flTpflfiWfifl 3SWfi3, fi fi$T$flfig ，$,; $k t $Tfiyi $yyfifi$fi,%flfif,$s%afi Tflfip,ta $kfi$,%Tfifi $ fi,4kfi$Te +6Uflfl7 flD. fl3Q64115.0105.095.085.075.065.055.045.035.025.02