详解银行业三季报：息差回升资产平稳分化持续

1、目录一、银行业三季报业绩增长分析 . - 4 -1.1 业绩增长情况：营收、PPOP 与净利润. - 4 -1.2 业绩归因分析：规模高增依旧是主要贡献，行业拨备计提力度边际稍减- 6 -二、营业收入拆分：净利息收入增速向上、量价齐升；中收增长稳健. - 8 -2.1 净利息收入分析：同环比拆解. - 8 -2.2 非息收入拆分：中收增长稳健，其他非息增速继续下滑. - 15 -三、资产质量：行业继续加大不良认定、加速出清；预计未来压力有限. - 17 -3.1 不良维度：不良净生成环比下降；关注类占比继续下降. - 17 -3.2 拨备维度：拨备计提力度边际减弱，拨备覆盖率环比微降、拨贷比持

2、平- 21 - 3.3 哪些银行资产质量优异和坏账出清较多？ . - 22 -四、其他财务指标分析. - 23 -4.1 费用支出同比增速保持低位. - 23 -4.2 核心一级资本充足率环比微升. - 24 -五、板块投资建议. - 25 -一、银行业三季报业绩增长分析业绩增长情况：营收、PPOP 与净利润1、营收与 PPOP 同比增长情况：行业增速依旧稳健，个股的分化持续行业整体营收与拨备前利润同比增速依旧稳健：1-3 季度上市银行营业收入与 PPOP 同比增长 4.8%、5.7%，较上半年同比增速微降 1.1 个百分点。板块间呈现分化：大行营收与拨备前利润同比增速基本持平，中小银行较上半

3、年边际有所下滑，主因为大行交易类金融资产占比相对较低，受资金市场利率陡升带来的其他非息收入下降影响相对较小。大行、股份行、城商行、农商行营收分别同比 3.4%、7.2%、7.2%、5.1%，较上半年的同比增速下降 0.1、2.6、3.4、3.5 个百分点。PPOP 方面则分别同比 4.1%、8.5%、8.3%和 3.9%，较上半年的同比增速下降 0.1、2.6、4.3 和 2.8 个百分点。个股分化持续，部分个股仍实现营收同比两位数的高增，以股份行与城商行为主，净利息收入与中收的发力起到一定支撑。股份行中的兴业、华夏和平安银行；城商行中的宁波、江苏、杭州、成都、青岛和郑州银行；农商行中的无锡与

4、张家港行 1-3 季度营业收入均实现 10%+同比增长，预计有当地经济增长，基建投资建设等宏观环境以及银行自身所处成长阶段以及业务摆布发力所致。图表：上市银行营收、PPOP 同比增速营收PPOP1Q191H193Q1920191Q201H203Q201Q191H193Q1920191Q201H203Q20工商银行10.79.68.57.02.11.82.512.59.99.16.92.92.12.9建设银行8.46.76.86.94.34.54.88.37.26.86.75.85.46.0农业银行9.44.43.03.87.64.54.211.25.42.84.37.85.75.5中国银行11

5、.38.38.77.75.93.22.512.69.49.77.38.05.33.8交通银行18.511.48.66.63.74.62.915.79.99.68.42.94.23.4邮储银行7.86.77.16.05.83.52.714.418.814.39.46.72.0-0.9招商银行12.19.510.28.311.16.96.213.28.47.76.510.85.54.7中信银行19.614.917.313.88.69.54.824.117.119.718.913.414.38.4浦发银行26.918.515.211.410.33.81.627.523.018.215.018.34.

6、20.8民生银行19.416.915.015.012.411.27.626.022.520.321.515.512.18.1兴业银行34.722.619.314.55.611.211.045.525.422.015.85.312.512.9光大银行33.726.823.320.610.29.06.436.932.126.123.311.710.110.9华夏银行22.721.022.217.320.919.614.242.935.733.721.018.322.520.2平安银行15.918.518.818.216.815.513.217.219.019.119.619.218.816.1浙商

7、银行39.121.125.019.015.911.52.445.326.832.324.919.214.70.0北京银行23.819.617.013.85.11.40.230.324.420.916.610.14.03.0南京银行30.023.321.118.315.46.52.337.627.123.820.217.16.61.1宁波银行23.519.820.521.233.723.418.424.921.120.321.332.722.615.6江苏银行29.127.327.427.617.814.313.032.030.234.533.919.516.515.8贵阳银行9.312.018

8、.616.017.418.68.27.011.020.116.523.825.29.6杭州银行26.625.725.825.525.423.016.328.130.729.527.827.624.918.2上海银行42.227.419.813.50.51.0-0.949.530.422.314.30.12.3-0.1成都银行16.912.410.59.814.111.612.119.312.710.48.516.113.114.2长沙银行29.626.422.022.113.18.25.730.929.230.029.019.512.56.8青岛银行98.844.835.930.537.534

9、.317.1144.650.939.932.945.542.217.9郑州银行11.821.319.720.930.423.213.65.521.822.423.052.838.522.4西安银行29.526.918.314.53.5-0.80.635.130.020.218.16.3-0.41.0江阴银行41.418.012.86.8-3.50.2-3.365.833.620.310.5-5.10.3-3.0无锡银行4.84.87.310.830.918.711.92.82.97.010.636.327.117.5常熟银行19.613.711.910.710.49.44.219.611.71

10、0.17.67.15.4-2.1苏农银行25.214.813.911.86.110.37.424.29.113.011.59.815.87.1张家港行33.225.730.228.618.517.610.435.637.837.937.027.223.916.1青农商行27.928.622.917.033.317.37.435.737.029.420.341.120.56.3紫金银行34.822.222.210.510.42.5-2.362.533.133.516.817.74.91.6渝农商行-1.50.01.22.04.65.05.013.29.26.54.7-7.0-1.62.0上市银行

11、14.611.210.59.27.35.94.817.113.111.910.48.76.85.7国有行10.27.56.96.34.73.53.411.58.77.76.65.64.24.1股份行22.417.416.714.011.29.87.227.220.518.916.613.511.18.5城商行28.223.120.918.714.410.67.232.626.224.120.816.812.68.3农商行12.09.99.88.311.58.65.122.616.614.210.67.66.73.9资料来源：公司财报，&2、净利润同比增速：行业拐头向上，板块有监管差异化因素净利

12、润同比增速拐头向上：但由于受不良确认严格、拨备继续多提影响，行业净利润同比仍是负增长、1-3 季度同比-7.7%（1H20 同比-9.4%）。板块间的差异有监管差异化因素所致：国股行边际改善最多，分别同比-8.7%、-7.0%，较上半年增速回升 2.5 和 1.2 个百分点。其次为农商行，同比-3.3%，较上半年增速回升 0.4 个百分点。城商行边际加大了拨备计提，利润增速有所下滑，同比-1.9%，较上半年增速下行 4.8 个百分点。不考虑监管因素，营业收入高增、资产质量相对优异的个股能实现利润的差异化：股份行板块中兴业、光大、华夏和平安银行利润增速修复最多，1-3 季度累积利润同比增速较上半

13、年回升了 3.6-6 个百分点。图表：上市银行归母净利润同比增速归母净利润1Q19 1H19 3Q19 2019 1Q20 1H20 3Q20 工商银行4.14.75.04.93.0-11.4-9.2建设银行4.24.95.24.75.1-10.7-8.7农业银行4.34.95.34.64.8-10.4-8.5中国银行4.04.54.14.13.2-11.5-8.7交通银行4.94.95.05.01.8-14.6-12.4邮储银行12.214.916.216.58.5-10.0-2.7招商银行11.313.114.615.310.1-1.6-0.8中信银行8.610.110.77.99.4-9

14、.8-9.4浦发银行15.112.411.95.45.5-9.8-7.5民生银行5.76.86.76.95.4-10.0-18.0兴业银行11.36.68.58.76.8-9.2-5.5光大银行7.513.113.111.011.3-10.2-5.7华夏银行1.25.15.05.05.1-11.4-7.4平安银行12.915.215.513.614.8-11.2-5.2浙商银行27.116.114.012.52.1-10.0-9.7北京银行9.58.68.87.25.3-10.5-8.4南京银行15.015.115.312.513.05.02.0宁波银行20.120.020.022.618.1

15、14.65.2江苏银行14.414.915.811.912.93.50.6贵阳银行12.416.515.312.915.56.7-1.0杭州银行19.320.220.322.019.312.15.1上海银行14.114.314.612.64.33.9-8.0成都银行22.818.018.019.411.69.94.8长沙银行11.012.011.213.412.07.52.4青岛银行10.08.911.013.09.56.53.1郑州银行-9.44.34.57.44.6-2.1-8.3西安银行15.111.111.313.310.01.1-1.0江阴银行6.09.218.018.28.21.5

16、1.7无锡银行13.511.211.414.112.95.04.4常熟银行21.120.122.420.114.11.41.8苏农银行12.314.915.213.811.02.26.6张家港行14.015.014.014.312.34.04.8青农商行11.412.915.816.812.44.84.9紫金银行15.418.415.313.010.62.01.8渝农商行29.418.917.67.8-6.9-9.9-10.0上市银行6.8 7.2 7.6 6.9 5.5 -9.4 -7.7 国有行4.6 5.3 5.6 5.2 4.2 -11.2 -8.7 股份行10.6 10.5 11.2

17、 9.7 8.1 -8.2 -7.0 城商行13.2 13.6 14.0 13.3 10.4 2.9 -1.9 农商行22.2 16.9 16.9 11.8 1.2 -3.7 -3.3 资料来源：公司财报，&业绩归因分析：规模高增依旧是主要贡献，行业拨备计提力度边际稍减资产规模高增仍是银行业绩增长的主要驱动因素，拨备多提则依旧是拖累业绩主要因子，二者分别贡献业绩+11%、-15%。总的来看，正向贡献业绩因子为规模、成本和税收；负向贡献因子为息差、非息和拨备。边际变化来看，贡献增强的因子有：1、规模增长再度走阔，显示下半年信贷需求不弱。2、拨备计提力度边际稍减，对业绩负向贡献边际减弱。3、税收优

18、惠正向贡献增强，预计 3 季度国债、地方债发力下，银行增配，免税优惠增加。负向贡献增加的因子为：1、净息差同比降幅仍有所扩大，对业绩负向贡献增加，有去年下半年高基数的原因。2、非息收入负向贡献增强，与资金市场利率陡升带来其他非息收入下滑所致。3、费用节约对业绩正向贡献边际略减弱，随着复工复产推进，行业业务支出逐渐正常化。图表：上市银行业绩增长累积同比拆解来源：公司财报，&各板块对业绩规模主贡献、拨备主拖累情况与行业一致。正向与负向贡献因子基本与行业一致，小差别是：1、净息差方面，城商行净息差同比正向贡献业绩，主要为城商行资产端收益率前低后高的翘尾因素、而负债端仍受益于高成本主动负债的替换。2、

19、费用方面，农商行费用负向贡献业绩，有渝农的扰动，渝农上年取消退休人员大额医保缴费，上期费用相对较低。而个别盈利驱动因子边际变化上也有不一致：1、净息差方面，股份行息差负向贡献边际收窄，随着高收益信贷资产的陆续投放，预计后续资产端收益率将继续迎来修复。2、拨备计提力度除城商行板块外，其余板块均有边际放缓，城商行板块前期拨备计提力度相对较小。图表：各板块上市银行业绩增长累积同比拆解国有行股份行20191Q201H203Q20环比变动20191Q201H203Q20环比变动规模增长8.49.39.710.00.38.511.611.812.00.2净息差扩大-3.9-3.0-3.9-4.1-0.38

20、.2-0.5-2.8-2.60.2非息收入1.8-1.6-2.3-2.5-0.2-2.80.20.8-2.2-3.0成本0.30.90.70.70.02.62.31.31.30.0拨备0.0-1.3-15.9-13.92.0-8.1-6.4-20.5-16.63.9税收-1.0-0.90.51.20.71.60.91.31.1-0.3净利润同比5.24.2-11.2-8.72.59.78.1-8.2-7.01.1城商行农商行20191Q201H203Q20环比变动20191Q201H203Q20环比变动规模增长12.910.711.011.20.334.08.58.59.00.5净息差扩大-6

21、.07.36.35.5-0.8-22.2-4.5-2.4-2.7-0.3非息收入11.8-3.5-6.7-9.5-2.8-3.67.52.5-1.1-3.7成本2.12.42.01.1-0.92.4-3.9-1.8-1.20.6拨备-5.5-8.1-11.7-12.1-0.4-2.0-5.7-11.2-9.41.8税收-1.71.82.32.30.04.50.00.92.31.4净利润同比13.310.42.9-1.9-4.811.81.2-3.7-3.30.4来源：公司财报，&二、营业收入拆分：净利息收入增速向上、量价齐升；中收增长稳健净利息收入分析：同环比拆解1、同比拆解：净利息收入稳中向

22、上，规模增速走阔，息差企稳行业净利息收入同比增速稳中向上，规模增速走阔是主要支撑，显示信贷需求不弱；净息差同比降幅稳定、呈企稳迹象：行业净利息收入同比+7.4%，较上半年增速微升0.1 个百分点。生息资产规模同比增长 11.4%，较上半年 10.9%的增速走阔。净息差同比缩窄 6bp，与上半年降幅持平，在去年下半年净息差高基数的背景下，总体呈现企稳迹象，预计行业在明年 1 季度重定价后，将消化 20 年 LPR 下行 30bp 的影响。图表：上市银行累积净利息收入同比增长累积净利息收入同比1Q191H193Q1920191Q201H203Q20工商银行8.27.87.06.04.12.42.1

23、建设银行4.54.63.85.06.76.46.7农业银行1.41.61.41.98.98.99.2中国银行6.65.45.14.07.68.47.1交通银行19.315.511.710.15.45.47.2邮储银行11.16.63.12.64.43.34.0招商银行14.313.511.27.95.54.05.6中信银行24.423.513.512.76.05.613.5浦发银行22.025.321.115.22.1-3.7-6.5民生银行39.934.432.527.722.321.219.8兴业银行12.79.48.57.78.510.213.5光大银行51.242.636.530.41

24、2.011.19.2华夏银行10.422.925.525.334.223.117.9平安银行11.216.621.520.419.215.313.4浙商银行38.926.326.228.410.612.69.3北京银行12.412.311.68.89.85.93.4南京银行5.15.43.4-0.94.63.35.3宁波银行18.011.35.22.319.419.024.8江苏银行-20.5-11.9-5.20.447.642.841.0贵阳银行-2.44.310.19.29.117.012.7杭州银行5.64.46.411.624.328.424.4上海银行15.012.06.11.320

25、.519.318.5成都银行19.211.77.86.78.312.712.6长沙银行3.56.55.46.313.612.413.1青岛银行112.381.160.453.422.424.624.4郑州银行18.339.736.435.237.337.632.4西安银行17.823.613.710.17.33.87.0江阴银行21.619.18.05.56.43.94.0无锡银行-0.4-2.7-2.9-1.512.211.111.4常熟银行18.014.811.911.59.910.16.4苏农银行19.913.29.99.3-3.70.05.4张家港行34.929.924.817.113

26、.26.410.4青农商行7.05.57.48.613.215.414.4紫金银行37.714.416.66.1-11.2-4.7-6.7渝农商行-0.528.319.416.41.64.65.2上市银行10.39.98.57.78.27.37.4国有行6.55.74.74.56.35.85.9股份行22.422.019.516.811.09.09.4城商行8.09.18.06.918.017.216.7农商行8.718.914.311.84.06.16.3资料来源：公司财报，&图表：上市银行累积净利息收入同比增长拆解生息资产同比累积年化净息差同比变动1Q191H193Q1920191Q201

27、H203Q201Q191H193Q1920191Q201H203Q201Q201H203Q20工商银行10.910.58.48.710.310.510.12.132.112.102.092.021.961.95-0.11-0.14-0.15建设银行7.37.75.39.511.913.015.32.122.102.112.112.052.002.00-0.08-0.10-0.11农业银行10.09.610.010.211.010.810.02.072.042.042.042.042.012.01-0.03-0.03-0.03中国银行8.110.28.47.011.18.59.41.721.73

28、1.741.751.701.711.71-0.02-0.02-0.04交通银行6.46.56.03.86.57.88.81.471.471.481.491.471.451.480.00-0.010.00邮储银行10.99.29.27.66.98.710.02.422.402.392.392.352.302.30-0.06-0.09-0.09招商银行9.010.112.410.114.511.711.92.582.562.522.462.432.362.37-0.16-0.20-0.15中信银行11.610.310.210.612.911.013.41.982.001.872.021.881.8

29、91.90-0.10-0.110.03浦发银行7.39.110.810.510.612.813.42.012.032.041.991.851.761.71-0.15-0.27-0.33民生银行3.64.95.111.413.013.411.01.511.541.601.631.641.651.700.140.120.10兴业银行5.26.97.27.010.67.99.11.491.491.501.511.491.511.570.000.020.06光大银行9.08.58.38.415.916.512.62.212.212.232.242.212.152.130.00-0.06-0.10华夏银

30、行10.618.016.113.211.68.510.61.922.082.152.212.292.312.290.370.220.14平安银行9.29.012.815.917.717.717.82.472.562.562.562.522.522.470.05-0.04-0.09浙商银行8.55.75.97.67.114.318.92.031.931.982.032.092.001.940.060.06-0.04北京银行10.77.46.26.55.88.16.81.801.841.861.871.861.831.800.06-0.01-0.06南京银行12.814.410.29.012.48

31、.212.41.791.731.681.631.691.621.60-0.10-0.11-0.08宁波银行11.812.814.219.523.825.525.91.671.691.691.681.641.631.70-0.03-0.060.01江苏银行12.111.06.97.69.78.99.51.091.151.211.281.481.501.570.390.360.36贵阳银行15.015.512.511.77.34.14.22.352.222.312.342.342.422.45-0.010.200.14杭州银行12.011.914.512.111.512.812.61.601.55

32、1.601.631.781.771.770.180.230.17上海银行12.212.210.89.710.110.111.01.341.391.401.431.471.501.510.130.120.11成都银行12.913.312.714.012.815.317.91.961.911.921.961.871.891.88-0.09-0.02-0.04长沙银行22.319.615.115.19.512.415.02.092.082.102.132.122.092.110.030.020.01青岛银行14.517.819.027.925.72.051.982.012.072.122.042.0

33、30.070.060.02郑州银行13.49.08.57.79.310.36.61.651.691.801.912.092.142.180.440.440.39西安银行8.314.811.615.314.22.162.222.202.172.042.032.07-0.11-0.19-0.13江阴银行8.413.87.110.48.56.611.02.072.032.012.032.021.941.93-0.06-0.09-0.08无锡银行14.415.912.75.86.68.28.81.811.801.821.841.911.881.890.100.070.07常熟银行13.28.49.21

34、1.914.215.314.33.183.173.213.243.103.062.99-0.09-0.11-0.22苏农银行18.317.214.78.110.59.45.82.702.472.432.442.382.262.35-0.32-0.22-0.08张家港行27.521.310.79.22.89.114.32.692.762.712.662.872.772.780.190.010.07青农商行18.817.113.818.419.62.202.182.192.232.152.172.14-0.04-0.01-0.05紫金银行8.75.95.0-1.24.09.22.232.042.0

35、51.981.951.911.86-0.28-0.12-0.20渝农商行11.213.28.66.35.37.22.402.322.302.302.272.282.27-0.13-0.04-0.03上市银行9.79.59.59.010.910.911.41.991.981.981.991.951.921.92-0.03-0.06-0.06国有行9.19.28.08.410.310.410.92.012.002.002.001.961.921.92-0.06-0.07-0.08股份行7.98.99.710.312.912.212.52.002.022.012.031.991.961.97-0.0

36、1-0.06-0.05城商行17.811.615.310.410.911.512.01.641.651.671.691.741.741.750.110.090.08农商行47.731.9106.29.67.48.510.32.392.322.312.322.292.272.26-0.10-0.05-0.05资料来源：公司财报，&净息差的企稳仍是来自负债端的贡献，但资产端收益率的降幅也有所缩窄：1）计息负债付息率同比下降 14bp，负债端降幅尚未边际收窄（VS 1 季度同比下降 6bp，上半年同比下降 10bp）。负债端对高息存款管控，另外高付息主动负债仍在替换继续缓释负债压力。从结构性存款压降

37、规模数据跟踪看，结构性存款月均压降规模不减，预计后续将持续贡献存款成本下降。2）生息资产收益率同比下降 20bp，同比降幅边际有所收窄，（VS 1 季度同比下降 10bp，上半年同比下降 16bp），资产端持续让利、存量信贷重定价拖累继续是资产端定价持续下行的原因；但信贷占比生息资产提升、高收益零售信贷投放回暖以及增量信贷价格边际走高共同贡献资产端降幅的缩窄。图表：银行业月均压降结构性存款规模（亿元）大行个人结构性存款大行单位结构性存款中小行个人结构性存款中小行单位结构性存款2019-1221,26612,86220,53641,3162020-0123,26816,47921,30746,8

38、722020-0325,84516,84522,57051,4152020-0523,62418,71521,80054,2462020-0622,87017,10020,16348,1432020-0919,76116,01516,37537,60019 年底的 2/314,1788,57513,69027,544自 5 月要压降的总规模9,44610,1408,10926,7026-12 月月均压降1,3491,4491,1583,815自 9 月要压降的总规模5,5837,4402,68510,05610-12 月月均压降1,8612,4808953,352资料来源：Wind，&板块间净

39、息差表现：大行、股份行和农商行净息差同比降幅开始缩窄，城商行净息差同比正增力度稍减，其中城商行板块更多为息差去年同期前低后高所致。个股净利息收入同比高增的银行基本是量价齐升支撑：股份行中的中信、民生、兴业、华夏和平安银行，实现净利息收入同比 13%+；城商行中的宁波、江苏、杭州、上海、青岛和郑州银行，净利息收入同比 18%+；农商行中的无锡、张家港和青农商行，净利息收入同比 10%+，基本为规模高增与息差正增共同驱动。净息差方面，从资产负债端拆解看，净利息高增的股份行更多是负债端的贡献，付息成本持续保持大幅收缩，预计结构性存款压降持续正向贡献。城商行更多为资产端的贡献，来自较高收益信贷占比的持

40、续提升。图表：上市银行累积资负收益付息率同比增长拆解累积年化生息资产收益率同比变动累积年化计息负债付息率同比变动1Q191H193Q1920191Q201H203Q201Q201H203Q201Q191H193Q1920191Q201H203Q201Q201H203Q20工商银行3.583.583.593.583.473.393.35-0.11-0.19-0.241.611.631.661.651.621.601.570.00-0.04-0.09建设银行3.673.633.663.653.583.543.52-0.09-0.09-0.141.771.751.771.761.751.751.73

41、-0.020.00-0.04农业银行3.633.623.623.603.533.493.48-0.10-0.13-0.141.741.761.761.751.671.661.64-0.07-0.10-0.12中国银行3.493.483.483.473.363.273.21-0.13-0.21-0.271.931.911.891.881.821.721.66-0.11-0.19-0.24交通银行3.803.803.813.813.773.673.61-0.04-0.14-0.202.542.562.562.542.522.442.34-0.02-0.12-0.21邮储银行3.803.833.85

42、3.873.793.773.78-0.01-0.06-0.071.461.521.551.571.531.571.590.070.050.03招商银行4.274.244.224.174.114.003.95-0.15-0.24-0.271.891.881.901.921.891.831.770.00-0.05-0.13中信银行4.234.254.124.274.164.084.03-0.07-0.17-0.092.462.462.462.452.502.402.330.03-0.06-0.12浦发银行4.454.424.444.364.043.923.89-0.41-0.50-0.552.67

43、2.612.612.582.392.362.37-0.28-0.24-0.24民生银行4.184.154.174.174.094.013.98-0.09-0.14-0.192.822.762.732.692.612.512.44-0.21-0.25-0.29兴业银行3.943.953.963.953.793.753.75-0.16-0.20-0.212.682.692.692.682.532.462.40-0.15-0.23-0.29光大银行4.654.634.644.634.454.374.29-0.21-0.26-0.342.672.642.632.612.472.442.38-0.20-

44、0.20-0.25华夏银行4.124.294.344.404.374.364.320.260.07-0.022.432.432.422.422.332.292.26-0.09-0.14-0.16平安银行5.075.115.095.044.874.754.63-0.20-0.36-0.462.802.752.742.702.612.502.41-0.19-0.25-0.32浙商银行4.764.704.724.764.734.604.55-0.03-0.09-0.172.952.972.952.942.872.832.83-0.08-0.14-0.12北京银行4.174.174.184.184.1

45、04.033.98-0.07-0.14-0.202.622.582.572.562.492.452.41-0.13-0.14-0.16南京银行4.424.324.274.224.124.034.01-0.30-0.28-0.262.872.822.832.832.662.642.64-0.21-0.18-0.20宁波银行3.913.873.883.873.823.713.72-0.09-0.16-0.172.482.432.452.452.432.332.27-0.05-0.10-0.18江苏银行4.024.034.054.094.184.144.140.160.110.093.133.083

46、.053.012.892.832.77-0.24-0.26-0.27贵阳银行4.834.794.864.914.985.035.030.150.240.172.582.692.682.692.772.752.720.190.060.05杭州银行4.054.004.034.044.074.003.970.020.00-0.062.672.682.652.632.512.462.42-0.16-0.23-0.23上海银行3.643.663.693.713.673.613.570.03-0.05-0.122.532.502.522.512.432.332.27-0.10-0.17-0.24成都银行3

47、.863.803.843.903.903.863.820.040.06-0.022.052.052.082.112.212.142.110.150.090.03长沙银行4.294.294.354.394.364.314.320.080.02-0.032.352.372.422.432.472.442.420.110.060.00青岛银行4.364.304.344.384.364.284.270.00-0.02-0.082.482.492.512.492.402.392.38-0.08-0.10-0.13郑州银行4.434.444.494.584.574.594.630.140.150.142.

48、962.922.872.852.652.612.59-0.31-0.31-0.28西安银行4.424.444.444.454.434.404.440.01-0.040.002.512.472.512.552.672.652.660.170.180.15江阴银行4.024.034.054.073.983.963.96-0.04-0.08-0.092.202.272.302.312.222.282.290.020.01-0.01无锡银行4.044.124.134.134.154.114.110.11-0.01-0.022.462.552.542.512.472.462.450.00-0.09-0.

49、09常熟银行5.395.315.325.345.125.095.05-0.27-0.22-0.272.482.422.392.382.312.312.35-0.17-0.10-0.04苏农银行4.354.194.194.224.204.024.11-0.15-0.17-0.081.811.891.941.952.021.961.950.210.070.01张家港行4.704.804.744.704.874.764.780.17-0.040.042.232.272.262.272.222.222.23-0.01-0.05-0.02青农商行4.254.194.214.224.104.084.04-

50、0.15-0.12-0.172.262.212.222.192.152.102.09-0.11-0.12-0.13紫金银行4.354.134.124.063.873.753.71-0.48-0.37-0.412.272.252.242.252.092.012.02-0.18-0.24-0.21渝农商行4.494.474.464.454.364.304.29-0.13-0.17-0.172.302.372.382.372.332.262.240.03-0.11-0.13上市银行3.853.843.853.853.753.693.65-0.10-0.16-0.202.062.052.062.051

51、.991.951.91-0.06-0.10-0.14国有行3.633.623.633.623.533.483.44-0.09-0.14-0.191.791.801.811.801.761.731.70-0.03-0.07-0.11股份行4.344.344.334.334.194.114.06-0.15-0.23-0.262.552.532.522.512.422.352.30-0.13-0.17-0.22城商行4.094.084.094.114.084.024.00-0.01-0.05-0.092.672.652.652.642.562.502.47-0.11-0.14-0.18农商行4.46

52、4.424.424.414.324.264.25-0.14-0.16-0.172.282.322.322.312.262.212.21-0.02-0.10-0.11资料来源：公司财报，&2、环比分析：趋势分析，环比走阔，量价齐升利率因素拆解：资产端利率降幅收窄，负债端成本下降幅度维持行业整体单季利息收入实现环比+3.4%高增，资产规模维持不弱的增速，净息差也实现环比正增：生息资产规模环比增长 1.7%，净息差环比回 升 3bp，略超预期（2 季度净息差环比收窄 6bp）。净息差环比回升有资产负债两端的共同贡献：生息资产收益率环比仅下降 3bp，较 2 季度降幅大幅缩窄（VS 2 季度环比下降

53、13bp），负债端资金成本环比下降 7bp，与 2 季度降幅基本持平（VS 2 季度环比下降 8bp）。原因与净息差同比降幅走阔基本一致：资产端有结构与新增信贷利率边际回升的贡献；负债端有结构性存款压降的持续正向贡献，另预计部分长期限的高成本主动负债仍在替换。图表：上市银行单季净利息收入环比增长单季净利息收入环比1Q 192Q 193Q 194Q 191Q 202Q 203Q 20工商银行-0.52.01.80.00.3-1.32.6建设银行3.80.23.01.61.8-0.44.0农业银行-2.6-0.53.62.92.6-0.34.4中国银行-6.33.34.20.3-0.34.7-0.

54、1交通银行-2.51.03.04.1-2.71.08.2邮储银行-2.01.40.21.61.1-0.83.6招商银行2.31.5-0.5-4.59.3-1.45.6浦发银行1.34.42.3-7.53.4-7.2-0.7民生银行-3.76.79.73.41.14.97.2兴业银行-2.51.94.81.10.45.112.3光大银行5.43.04.62.01.91.40.1华夏银行-9.824.25.35.7-2.95.70.4平安银行2.810.1-1.04.74.63.1-2.7浙商银行21.0-6.913.65.1-0.5-3.42.2北京银行-7.66.52.50.8-0.2-0.9

55、-1.2南京银行-1.1-2.3-5.0-4.918.4-4.72.0宁波银行-14.66.11.03.97.45.415.6江苏银行-19.313.513.112.52.26.512.6贵阳银行-5.1-6.921.10.1-3.37.21.6杭州银行10.9-4.516.24.27.62.02.6上海银行-25.79.63.47.4-1.07.52.4成都银行-10.6-0.97.19.3-6.87.22.9长沙银行-7.13.86.16.3-2.91.69.1青岛银行12.5-2.512.412.3-0.51.010.1郑州银行-6.26.915.614.3-2.87.43.7西安银行-

56、5.08.9-3.20.71.12.19.2江阴银行-6.20.3-0.25.40.8-4.52.9无锡银行-6.51.74.33.52.2-0.36.2常熟银行-3.02.16.45.0-3.72.3-3.7苏农银行9.7-15.27.47.7-1.8-8.119.7张家港行2.69.3-9.2-4.319.2-3.48.0青农商行-5.92.65.89.5-4.76.61.1紫金银行1.7-14.910.8-16.012.1-1.2-3.9渝农商行5.7-3.33.12.8-0.92.61.7上市银行-1.4 2.2 3.1 1.3 1.5 0.6 3.4 国有行-1.3 1.2 2.7

57、1.4 0.9 0.2 3.3 股份行0.9 5.0 3.5 -0.2 3.1 0.7 3.5 城商行-10.2 4.3 5.8 4.7 2.1 3.1 5.1 农商行1.5 -2.5 3.7 2.5 0.4 1.3 2.3 注：由于中信银行在 19 年 4 季度将信用卡分期重分类至利息收入，扰动较大，因此上市银行、股份行不含中信银行数据资料来源：公司财报，&图表：上市银行单季净利息收入环比增长拆解生息资产规模环比单季净息差环比变动1Q 192Q 193Q 194Q 191Q 202Q 203Q 201Q 192Q 193Q 194Q 191Q 202Q 203Q 201Q 202Q 203Q

58、 20工商银行5.02.81.4-0.66.53.11.02.132.092.082.082.021.911.92-0.05-0.120.01建设银行4.10.80.34.06.41.92.32.122.082.132.122.051.962.00-0.07-0.090.04农业银行3.91.33.90.84.71.13.22.072.012.032.042.041.982.020.00-0.060.04中国银行1.82.91.40.85.60.52.21.721.741.771.761.701.731.70-0.060.03-0.03交通银行2.71.00.3-0.35.42.31.21.4

59、71.461.491.551.471.441.53-0.08-0.040.09邮储银行6.5-0.10.30.95.81.61.52.422.382.382.402.352.252.30-0.05-0.100.05招商银行0.55.91.51.94.63.21.62.582.542.442.292.432.302.380.13-0.120.07浦发银行3.41.51.34.03.53.51.82.012.052.061.861.851.661.61-0.01-0.19-0.05民生银行3.22.4-1.26.84.62.9-3.31.511.571.711.721.641.661.79-0.0

60、70.020.12兴业银行0.14.20.02.63.51.61.01.491.491.531.531.491.521.69-0.040.040.17光大银行3.02.61.61.010.13.1-1.72.212.212.272.282.212.102.09-0.08-0.10-0.01华夏银行4.47.90.10.32.95.02.01.922.242.272.402.292.332.26-0.110.04-0.07平安银行3.21.53.86.64.71.63.92.472.652.562.542.522.522.38-0.030.00-0.13浙商银行2.72.3-1.13.62.19