fvs财务计价与策略

1、Ready for watching?CONTENTSPorters Five Forces analysisRevenue Recognition Policies and Other Accounting PoliciesProfitability and risk analysisLiquidity, inventory management and asset management comparisonCash flow analysisForecasting and evaluation01Porters Five Forces analysisBuyer: moderateSupp

2、lier: moderateThreat of substitutes: weakNew entrants: moderateDegree of rivalry: moderateBuyer: strongSupplier: moderateThreat of substitutes: moderateNew entrants: strongDegree of rivalry: moderateAlibaba5 Force Analysis Industry SummaryProfitable“Dog-eat-dog”02Revenue Recognition Policies and Oth

3、er Accounting PoliciesAccounting AnalysisACCOUNTING POLICYREVENUE RECOGNITION POLICIESThe actual amountThe company and shareholdersThe standard to obeyReal business conditionAccounting AnalysisALIBABA & JD Generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (U.S. GAAP) Financial Accounting

4、 Standards Board (FASB)Alibabafrom April 1 in the previous year to March 31JDfrom January 1 to December 31 in the same yearActual yearFiscal year in annual reportAlibabaApril 1, 2014 March 31, 20152015JDJanuary 1, 2014 December 31, 20142014ACCRUED REVENUE83%China commerce7%Others8%International comm

5、erce2%Cloud computing and Internet infrastructureAlibaba(in millions, RMB)Changes in revenueFiscal year20152014-2015Total revenue76,204.0045.14%Percentage in total revenue(2015)DEFERRED REVENUEAlibaba(in millions, RMB)Changes in liabilitiesFiscal year20152014-2015Deferred revenue and customer advanc

6、es (long-term)7,914.0021.83%Deferred revenue (short-term)445.003.97%Percentage in total liabilities(2015)91%All other liabilities8%Deferred revenue and customer advances(long-term)1%Deferred Revenue (current) COST OF REVENUEAlibaba(in millions, RMB)Changes cost of revenueFiscal year20152014-2015Tota

7、l revenue23,834.0078.28%COMPREHENSIVE EBoth - a comprehensive lossAbout half of JDOther accounting policiesGoodwillAnintangible assetthat arises whena buyer acquires an existing business.The accounting policies of Alibaba and JD on goodwill are similar.Other accounting policiesThe goodwill in 2015 a

8、ccounts for 16% of total assets.Other accounting policiesProperty, plant and equipment (PPE)Depreciation method: straight-line method used by Alibaba and JDUseful lives: a general area in Alibaba most are fixed in JDOther accounting policiesAlibabaCategory Estimated useful livesComputer equipment an

9、d software3-5 yearsFurniture, office and transportation equipment3-5 yearsBuildings20-50 yearsJDCategory Estimated useful livesElectronic equipment3 years Office equipment5 years Vehicles5 yearsLogistic and warehouse equipment5 yearsSoftware3-5 yearsBuilding40 yearsOther accounting policiesAlibaba(i

10、n millions, RMB)201320142015PPE (in millions, RMB)3,8085,5819,139depreciation expenses (in millions, RMB)7641,2952,282percentage of depreciation expenses20.06%23.20%24.97%Small change in percentage might be caused by adjustment of useful years or internal proportion change of PPE.Other accounting po

11、liciesLoan receivablesQuite similar except for a few differencesloan period: Alibaba: range from 7 days to 360 days JD: between 7 days and 182 daysAbnormal value: a sharp decrease from RMB13,159 million to RMB 835 million during 2014 and 2015 of Alibaba.03Profitability and risk analysisProfitability

12、 analysisReturn on assets (ROA) can measure how much profit one unit of asset can generate. Alibaba0JD, highest investment in total assets in 2014.Alibaba has a higher asset utilization rate and can generate more profit. Return on equity (ROE) reflects the return level of shareholders equity and mea

13、sures how effective the company uses the capital.Alibaba 0JDProfitability analysisAlibaba JD:Alibaba was more profitable.Alibaba0JD ,Peak in 2013RNOA declines in 2014Alibaba can make more money on every unit of net operating assets. Alibaba would see higher future profits as well as increased RNOA.A

14、libabas NOPAT margin is positive while JDs negative ;AlibabaJDAlibaba can deploy net operating assets more efficiently in earning profit than JDProfitability analysisAlibaba is using common equity more efficiently than the industry. Alibaba 0JD ,Peak in 2013Fluctuations fluctuated e the disaggregati

15、on of ROCE increased adjusted profit margin in 2013 profitSince Alibaba is a capital-intensive company, the decline of ROCE in 2014 would reflect the products have e less competitive.Profitability analysisEquity growth rate can measure how much additional equity the stockholders can add to equity he

16、ld. Alibaba 0JD ,Peak in 2013Alibabas equity higher and more stable is a positive sign because stockholders are holding more percentage of equityJD Alibaba Investors of JD are losing greater because JD is losing money. JD is a fast growing company since there has been a high financial leverage.Risks

17、 analysis04Liquidity, inventory management and asset management comparison LiquidityCurrent ratio reflects a companys ability of covering current liabilities;2, a superior coverage of current liabilities3, does not make use of its currents efficientlyJD can make use of current assets more efficientl

18、y then Alibaba. LiquidityWorking capital can be used to cover obligations. Alibaba has more arrangements with related parties such as subsidiaries, which would make interest free loans available. JD is conservative in issuing credit to customers. Both Alibaba and JD require zero working capital beca

19、use the net trade cycle is negative and the two companies can turnover quickly. LiquidityAlibabaJDAlibaba is in a much safer condition because it has more money on hand. Therefore, Alibaba has higher liquidity and lower risk of unable to pay off current liabilities.Alibaba is more capable to pay off

20、 short-term obligations and the current assets are more liquid than JDs. Inventory managementAlibaba has zero inventories. Alibabas management of inventory is better than JDs. Assets managementAssets turnover: JD Alibaba; Alibabas assets turnover rate. JD can use assets more efficiently to generate

21、money than Alibaba Assets managementJD1JDAlibaba can generate much sufficient cash from operations than JD. Large idle fundsaffect Alibabas future profitability.Ratio analysis of cash flowCash reinvestment ratio can measure the percentage of operating cash retained invested in assets and reinvested in the companys replacing assets and operations. ideal ratio：(8% ,10%) AlibabaJD0.10The two companies have insufficient capability to reinvest in assets.06Forecasting and evaluationSales Revenue ForecastYear2012201320142015Sales Revenue20025345175250476204Growth Rate-72.37%52.11%45.14%Sinc