美国能源中游Q4预览：大宗商品进展缓慢

1、15January2019 Americas/United EquityResearchMaster LimitedPartnershipsMidstream 4Q18 PreviewResearchAnalystsSpiroDounis212 3253463 HYPERLINK mailto:spiro.dounis spiro.dounisJohnMackay212 3256242 HYPERLINK mailto:john.mackay john.mackayManavGupta212 3256617 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.gupta manav.guptaDou

2、glasIrwin212 3256850 HYPERLINK mailto:douglas.irwin.2 douglas.irwin.2CharlesBryant212 3254938 HYPERLINK mailto:charles.bryant charles.bryantEARNINGSCommodities Slow ProgressEarnings Set Up: The Bar Moved Lower: The sharp commodity slide in 4Q18 sets the bar lower for most names under coverage; a sha

3、rp contrastfrom the elevated expectations in 3Q18 that were met and beat in most cases. We dont view Januarys stock rebound as an indication expectations have increased. We see the move as largely technical and driven by rebalancing. Outside of earnings, major events to watch for are:potential sale

4、of KMIs Canadian business, (2) MPLX/ANDX merger, (3) Whistler FID, (4) TELLFID.NGL Names Most at Risk; Seasonality Helps Some: We expect the weaker commodity tape to largely impact names like DCP, TRGP, OKE,EPD, MPLX, and ET due to slight commodity exposure. Lower NGL prices and tighter differential

5、s drive most of the impact, ongoing high fractionation fees are a potential negative for DCP. That said, frac fees have eased slightly QoQ which impacts the other NGL names. Seasonality likely drives sequentially stronger performance for PAA, MMP, BPL (ex-asset sales), KMI, and NGL.Guidance is Likel

6、y the Largest Risk this Quarter: With some E&Ps (Antero for one), curtailing production to focus on cash flow neutrality andgeneration, volume guidance could be at risk in 2019. PAA seemed to leave the door open to a guidance update pending discussions with upstream customers. We believe the same co

7、uld be said across all names with G&P exposure, particularly anywhere outside the Permian and Bakken. Companies could signal the risk with a cautious tone for this seasons calls; actual volume impact probably wouldnt show up until2H19.Revising TPs: We are revising target prices for several of our na

8、mes with the bias to the downside. This move lower is largely driven by lowerexpected volume growth following the commodity price pullback and ongoing upstream production estimate revisions. We also trim our multiples on several names that have yet to resolve their outstanding IDR burdens as investo

9、rs increasingly prefer cleaner structures. Our primaryvaluation methodology remains 2019E EV / EBITDA multiples.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Creditto do

10、 in its As a be have a of of this as a in Americas/United States Master Limited PartnershipsRatingOUTPERFORMPrice (11-Jan-19, US$)RatingOUTPERFORMPrice (11-Jan-19, US$)8.47Target price (US$)11.0052-week price range (US$)10.30 - 7.42Market cap(US$ m)2,752Enterprise value(US$m)Target price is for 12 m

11、onths.ResearchAnalystsSpiroDounis212 3253463 HYPERLINK mailto:spiro.dounis JohnMackay212 3256242 HYPERLINK mailto:john.mackay DouglasIrwin212 3256850 HYPERLINK mailto:douglas.irwin.2 CharlesBryant212 3254938Reiterate Outperform Rating and $11 TP4Q18 Results Non-Event: This will be ALTMs first quarte

12、r following the Apache Midstream Kayne SPAC merger. That said, it is only partial (dealclosed in mid-November) and cash flow to ALTM remains small. We expect 91 kboepd on the G&P assets (APA net 68 kboepd) to provide $12m total adj. EBITDA, with no JV pipeline contribution yet. Given the small size

13、of the current footprint vs. the high expected growth rate over the coming years, we expect little attention to be paid to 4Q18 ALTM results. More important will be color from APA on the pace of Alpine High development.Outperform Rating with $11 Target Price: Our $11 TP is based on an 11x EV multipl

14、e on our 2021 adj. EBITDA estimate, discounted back two years at10% (based on the first year of full in-service of the JV pipelines). HYPERLINK mailto:charles.bryant charles.bryant Risks: Risks to our Outperform rating and $11 target price include a pullback by APA in the Alpine High, investor disfa

15、vor with the lack of a dividend in thenear-term, high execution risk, changes in the equity option agreements for the downstream pipes, and a lack of control over the downstream assets.SharepriceperformanceFinancial and valuationmetricsYear12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EAdjusted EBITDA(US$m)-013131339Prev

16、Adjusted EBITDA(US$m)-Distribution/Unit(US$m)0.000.000.000.00DistributionCoverage(x)0.000.000.000.00Earnings/Unit -EPU(US$)-0.00EV / Adj.EBITDA(x)-5,66.07-16.9518.2510.06Price/DCF toLPs(x).002,57.2226.4010.28DPU(US$)0.00DistributionYield(%)0.00On 11-Jan-2019 the NASDAQ NMSCOMPOSITE INDEX

17、UnitsOutstanding(m)325GPTake(%)-closedat6971.476Net Debt Current(US$m)-624NetDebt/EBITDA(x)-49.80Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan11, 2019, 01/12/18=US$9.74Companydata,Reuters,CreditestimatesAdj.EBITDAQ1Q2Q3Q42017A0-1002018E11-1122019E15163762Altus Midstream Company (ALTM)Price (11 Jan 2019): US$8.47; Rating:

18、 OUTPERFORM; Target Price: 11.00; Analyst: Spiro DounisDistributable Cash Flow (DCF)12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ECompanyBackgroundAdjusted EBITDA(0)13131339Altus Midstream is a pure-play, Permian midstreamC-corp,Prev. Adj. EBITDA-anchored by Apache Corporations gathering, processingand(-) Maintenance Cap

19、ex0(3)(12)(16)transportation assets at Alpine High. Altus also owns options infive(-) Cash Interest Expense0(0)(16)(53) gas, NGL, and crude oil pipeline projects from the PermianBasin.(+/-) Other Adjustments0000(-) General Partner Take-Blue/Grey SkyScenario(-) Preferred Dividends-Adj. DCF Available

20、to LPs-DCF Per LP Unit / Common.00.03.29.74Distribution Per Unit / Share.00.00.00.00Distribution Coverage (x).00.00.00.00Adj. EBITDA2017AQ10Q2-1Q30Q402018E11-1122019E15163762Key Valuation Metrics12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EDividend / Distribution Yield (%)0.000.000.000.00/ 0.000.000.000.00DCF Yield (%)0

21、.000.393.799.73EV / EBITDA (x)(566.07)(16.95)18.2510.06Leverage Ratios12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENet Debt / EBITDA (x)2.56(49.80)(0.73)2.38Net Debt / Total Capital (%)(0.13)(50.23)25.5029.78Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)032170309CoGS and OpEx01884130SGA251327(+) Other EBITDA000

22、17DD&A001824Other0000Our Blue SkyScenario(US$)16.00Operating Income(2)955145Our blue sky scenario of $16 is based on 10% higher 2021EBITDAInterest2(4)1653(full run-rate), which could be driven by higher Apache activity intheEquity Income (Loss)0040122 Alpine High, along with a 1x expansion from our

23、11x base multiple. Other Income (Loss)4000Earnings Before Tax11379214Taxes131643Our Grey SkyScenario(US$)5.00Net Income to LPs / Company(0)1063171Our grey sky scenario of $5 is based on -35% lower 2021EBITDAEarning Per Share / Unit(0.02)0(full run-rate), which would be driven by 50% lower G&Pactivit

24、y/ 1154325and 20% lower JV pipeline earnings on a broader pullback inAPACash Flow12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20Eactivity and slower Permian basin growth, alongside amultipleNet Income(0)1063171 pullback to 9.5x from our base of11x.DD&A001824Others(1)(56)2576Share priceperformanceCash Flow from Operations(1

25、)(46)106271Acquisitions0000Total Capex0(328)(1,391)(812)Expansion Capex0(325)(1,379)(796)Maintenance Capex0(3)(12)(16)Others(377)000Cash Flow from Investments(377)(328)(1,391)(812)Equity Issuance (Repurchase)37764800Debt Issued(0)1696406Dividends / Distributions Paid0000Others13490218Cash Flow from

26、Financing379998696624Balance Sheet (US$)12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ECash & Cash Equivalents062535118Other Current Assets0000On 11-Jan-2019 the NASDAQ NMS COMPOSITE INDEX closed at6971.476Net PPE01,1171,4311,953Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan11, 2019, 01/12/18 =US$9.74Other Long-Term Assets3791451,1951,428Total

27、Assets3801,8872,6613,500Short-Term Debt0111Other Short Term Liabilities1333Long-Term Debt006961,102Other Long-Term Liabilities13163174Total Liabilities14197311,180GP Equity-LP Equity3651,8671,9312,320Non-Controlling Interests & Other-Total Liabilities and Equity3801,8872,6613,500Americas/United Stat

28、es Master Limited PartnershipsRatingPrice (11-Jan-19, US$)36.64Targetprice (US$)(from 46.00) 35.00 52-week pricerange(US$)54.75 -31.90Marketcap(US$m)Enterprise value(US$m)Target price is for 12 months.ResearchAnalystsSpiroDounis212 3253463 HYPERLINK mailto:spiro.dounis Andeavor Logistics LP(ANDX)Rei

29、terate Underperform; TP to$35Expect In-Line 4Q18, Focus Remains Elsewhere: The focus for ANDX remains on next steps for the potential merger with MPLX, and thus weexpect little attention to be paid to actual 4Q18 results. On the call, look for more guidance on mgmts plans to right-size coverage and

30、leverage at ANDX going forward and any progress on simplificationplans.ManavGuptaReiterate Underperform Rating, TP to $35: Our TP moves to $35 (from212 325 6617 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.gupta JohnMackay212 3256242 HYPERLINK mailto:john.mackay DouglasIrwin$46) as the lack of support from sponsor MPC, p

31、ullback in growth expectations, and no resolution to the potential MPLX combination (yet) pressure both our forward EBITDA estimates and our multiple. Our new TP is based on a 10.75x multiple on 2019E EBITDA.212 325 6850 Risks: Upside risks to our Underperform rating and $35 TP include a better- HYP

32、ERLINK mailto:douglas.irwin.2 CharlesBryant212 3254938 HYPERLINK mailto:charles.bryant than-expected resolution to the MPLX potential merger (meaningful premium) and higher than expected organic growth in the Permian and Bakken.SharepriceperformanceFinancial and valuationmetricsYear12/17A12/18E12/19

33、E12/20EAdjusted EBITDA(US$m)9321,2091,3861,497Prev Adjusted EBITDA(US$m)-1,2411,3871,466Distribution/Unit(US$m)3.904.094.124.12DistributionCoverage(x)0.971.000.951.02Earnings/Unit -EPU(US$)2.162.662.823.08EV / Adj.EBITDA(x)11.2210.7610.279.89Price/DCF toLPs(x)10.157.617.957.39 DPU(US$)4.12Distributi

34、on Yield (%)12.59On 11-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closedat2596.26UnitsOutstanding(m)248GPTake(%)0.00Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan11, 2019, 01/12/18=US$54.26Net Debt Current(US$m)4,994Net Debt/EBITDA(x)4.13Adj.EBITDAQ1Q2Q3Q4 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates2017A210229216277201

35、8E2732893093382019E333340353 360Andeavor Logistics LP (ANDX)Price (11 Jan 2019): US$36.64; Rating: UNDERPERFORM; Target Price: (from 46.00) 35.00; Analyst: Spiro DounisDistributable Cash Flow (DCF)12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ECompanyBackgroundAdjusted EBITDA9321,2091,3861,497Andeavor Logistics is a spons

36、ored master limited partnershipunderPrev. Adj. EBITDA-1,2411,3871,466Andeavor, a US independent refiner. ANDX owns andoperates(-) Maintenance Capex(63)(78)(132)(138)pipelines and terminals supporting ANDV refineries as wellas(-) Cash Interest Expense- gathering and processing assets in the Rockies a

37、ndBakken.(+/-) Other Adjustments(174)(155)(251)(281)(-) General Partner Take(122)000Blue/Grey SkyScenario(-) Preferred Dividends-Adj. DCF Available to LPs5739761,0031,079DCF Per LP Unit / Common4.554.274.094.39Distribution Per Unit / Share3.904.094.124.12Distribution Coverage (x).971.00.951.02Adj. E

38、BITDA2017AQ1210Q2229Q3216Q42772018E2732893093382019E333340353360Key Valuation Metrics12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EDividend / Distribution Yield (%)8.4312.5912.6812.68/ 13.235.000.730.00DCF Yield (%)9.8513.1412.5713.53EV / EBITDA (x)11.2210.7610.279.89Leverage Ratios12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENet Debt / EBIT

39、DA (x)4.354.134.084.17Net Debt / Total Capital (%)53.5651.4056.2360.08Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)2,3792,3392,3382,399CoGS and OpEx1,3581,0641,0291,060SGA126113118121(+) Other EBITDA031178263DD&A261333390409Other0000Our Blue SkyScenario(US$)(from 56.00)47.00Operating Incom

40、e6598599791,072Our blue sky price of $47 is based on 5.0% higher EBITDA andaInterest3142302622911.5x higher EV multiple on our FY19 estimates vs. our basecase,Equity Income (Loss)10151212driven by all organic projects in the Permian providing betterthanOther Income (Loss)3444 expectedgrowth.Earnings

41、 Before Tax358648733797Taxes0000Net Income to LPs / Company272607692756Our Grey SkyScenario(US$)(from 37.00)27.00Earning Per Share / Unit2.162.662.823.08Our grey sky price of $27 is based on 5.0% lower EBITDA anda/ 1262292451.0 x lower EV multiple on our FY19 estimates vs. our base casedueCash Flow1

42、2/17A12/18E12/19E12/20Eto lower than expected growth opportunities being provided toANDXNet Income358646733797 byMPC.DD&A282352390409Others69(2)00Share priceperformanceCash Flow from Operations7099991,1241,206Acquisitions(605)(379)00Total Capex(208)(880)(732)(738)Expansion Capex(145)(802)(600)(600)M

43、aintenance Capex(63)(78)(132)(138)Others0000Cash Flow from Investments(813)(1,259)(732)(738)Equity Issuance (Repurchase)2909400Debt Issued(247)917659590Dividends / Distributions Paid(661)(902)(1,053)(1,053)Others10913300Cash Flow from Financing(509)242(395)(462)Balance Sheet (US$)12/17A12/18E12/19E1

44、2/20ECash & Cash Equivalents75555358Other Current Assets430582582582On 11-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at2596.26Net PPE5,4136,9797,3217,650Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan11, 2019, 01/12/18 =US$54.26Other Long-Term Assets2,2512,8352,8352,835Total Assets8,16910,45210,79011,125Short-Term Debt0000Other Sho

45、rt Term Liabilities474604604604Long-Term Debt4,1275,0495,7076,298Other Long-Term Liabilities54777777Total Liabilities4,6555,7306,3886,979GP Equity0000LP Equity2,9254,1283,8083,552Non-Controlling Interests & Other589594594594Total Liabilities and Equity8,16910,45210,79011,125Americas/United States Ma

46、ster Limited PartnershipsRatingNEUTRALPrice (11-Jan-19, US$)RatingNEUTRALPrice (11-Jan-19, US$)12.25Target price (US$)15.0052-week price range (US$)22.02 - 10.53Market cap(US$ m)2,281Enterprise value(US$m)Target price is for 12 months.ResearchAnalystsSpiroDounis212 3253463 HYPERLINK mailto:spiro.dou

47、nis JohnMackayReiterate Neutral Rating and $15 TP4Q18 Outlook: We see increasing gathering volumes driving stronger sequential results, partly offset by lower fresh water volumes. AR wasrunningwith one less completion crew in 4Q18 and the start-up of Sherwood plants 10 and 11 in 4Q18 should partiall

48、y contribute to higher sequential JV results. 2018 guidance implies roughly 28 wells serviced in the water segment during 4Q as some wells scheduled for 4Q were pulled into3Q. HYPERLINK mailto:john.mackay john.mackay212 325 6242 What Updates Do We Expect During Earnings? HYPERLINK mailto:john.mackay

49、 john.mackayDouglasIrwin212 3256850 HYPERLINK mailto:douglas.irwin.2 CharlesBryant212 3254938 HYPERLINK mailto:charles.bryant at AR will likely be addressed on the call. Further downside risk to production could potentially come from lower NGL prices as it would pressure AR cash flows. Thematically,

50、 we likely continue to hear updates on the potential build- out of downstream assets, Northeast M&A, and debottlenecking of Northeast NGLs with the start-up of ME2.Reiterate Neutral Rating and TP of $15: We reiterate our Neutral rating and TP of $15 based on an 11.25x multiple on our pro-forma FY 19

51、EBITDAestimates.Risks: Risks to the upside include higher than expected production from AR (Antero Resources). Downside risks include lower than expected productionat AR, failing to complete the simplification and AR selling ownership in AM.SharepriceperformanceFinancial and valuationmetricsYear12/1

52、7A12/18E12/19E12/20EAdjusted EBITDA(US$m)00890Prev Adjusted EBITDA(US$m)-Distribution/Unit(US$m)0.190.551.241.51DistributionCoverage(x)0.000.000.030.04Earnings/Unit -EPU(US$)0.020.561.141.43EV / Adj.EBITDA(x)60.5220.4611.359.94Price/DCF toLPs(x)1,06.2926.8610.548.40 DPU(US$)0.71Distribution Yield (%

53、)3.72On 11-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closedat2596.26UnitsOutstanding(m)186GPTake(%)-Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan11, 2019, 01/12/18=US$21.04Net Debt Current(US$m)-5NetDebt/EBITDA(x)-Adj.EBITDAQ1Q2Q3Q4 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates2017A00002018E00002019E203217229 241Antero

54、 Midstream GP (AMGP)Price (11 Jan 2019): US$12.25; Rating: NEUTRAL; Target Price: 15.00; Analyst: Spiro DounisDistributable Cash Flow (DCF)12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ECompanyBackgroundAdjusted EBITDA008901,092Antero Midstream GP is a general partner holding companythatPrev. Adj. EBITDA-owns the GP/IDRs

55、of Antero Midstream, a natural gas andwater(-) Maintenance Capex00(65)(66) gathering MLP in the Marcellus andUtica.(-) Cash Interest Expense00(95)(128)(+/-) Other Adjustments(27)(28)(20)0Blue/Grey SkyScenario(-) General Partner Take-(-) Preferred Dividends0000Adj. DCF Available to LPs35103710899DCF

56、Per LP Unit / Common.19.551.411.77Distribution Per Unit / Share.19.551.241.51Distribution Coverage (x).00.00.03.04Adj. EBITDA2017AQ10Q20Q30Q402018E00002019E203217229241Key Valuation Metrics12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EDividend / Distribution Yield (%)0.943.728.3410.16/ 0.00198.14124.1721.77DCF Yield (%)0

57、.943.729.4911.90EV / EBITDA (x)60.5220.4611.359.94Leverage Ratios12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENet Debt / EBITDA (x)-Net Debt / Total Capital (%)(62.23)(18.62)74.9778.72Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)701441,0831,222CoGS and OpEx00280309SGA66108121(+) Other EBITDA0000DD&A00183208Our

58、 Blue SkyScenario(US$)18.00Other35000Our blue sky price of $18 is based on 2.5% higher EBITDA andaOperating Income291386167951.5x higher EV multiple on our FY19 pro-forma estimates vs.ourInterest0095128base case if AR production growth outperforms expectationsorEquity Income (Loss)006983 downstream

59、build-out is better thanexpected.Other Income (Loss)-Earnings Before Tax29138590750Taxes26311620Our Grey SkyScenario(US$)7.00Net Income to LPs / Company3105572728Our grey sky price of $7 is based on 7.5% lower EBITDA and a4.0 xEarning Per Share / Unit0.020.561.141.43lower EV multiple on our FY19 pro

60、-forma estimates vs. ourbase/ 188186503case on lower than expected production growth at AR andpotentialCash Flow12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20E delays in growthprojects.Net Income271505647 Share priceperformanceDD&A00183208Others(9)(21)1645Cash Flow from Operations2885767965Acquisitions0000Total Capex00(77