银行红利：第财报季度展望

1、 EquityResearch|BankBrief31 January2019JasonM.Goldberg,CFA+1 2125268580 HYPERLINK mailto:jason.goldberg jason.goldbergBCI,USCompleted:31-Jan-19,15:32GMT HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentDocID=FC104194787 Guidance Grid Post 4Q18Released:31-Jan-19,15:32 HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentDoc

2、ID=FC104194787 Guidance Grid Post 4Q18BARCLAYS CLASSIFICATION: Restricted - ExternalBank Brief BonusForward-LookingStatementsfromthe4Q18Earnings SeasonBelowfindalistofforwardlookingdisclosureseachcompanymadeinits4Q18earningsrelease,slidedeckandconferencecall. Thiscouldassistyouinyourmodeling,reviewi

3、ngtheupcomingForm10-Ksandwithmanagementmeetingsyoumayhaveduringthe quarter.Wearealsoattachingafilethatsummarizesallofthisguidanceintoasimple3gridwithaprintrangesset-up. NEWthis quarterwealsoaddedapagewitheachcompanysupdatedprofitabilitytargets. Simplyclickdirectlybelowmynameintheupper leftcornerofth

4、ise-mail.Forourcompleteearningsreviewnotesclickthereporttitlesbelow.Wealsoincludedlinkstoourupdated HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2434499 excelmodels(clickonthetickerbelowthereviewreporttitles).Ourcompleteindustrywrap-up(4Q18Review&Outlook:Pop Justified,MoretoComeDespite1QHeadwinds,

5、1/29/19)includessummariesofeachcompanysresultsbeginningonpage17.Comparingourcurrent2019compositeforecast(looksatthemedianbankundercoverage)totheonewepublishedimmediately priortothe4Q18earningsseason(see HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2429097 2019OUTLOOK-Past,Present&YettoCome:LessGoo

6、dDoesntMeanBad,BuyBanks, 1/2/19),showssomechanges.Weexpectmodestlylowerrevenuegrowth(3%vs.4%)thenweentering2019,withalowerthanpreviously expected fee income base. We still expect modest balance sheet growth and net interest margin expansion allowing net interest income growth to outpace fee income g

7、rowth. Also, lower than previously expected expense growth (most banks stilltargeting positive operating leverage though aided by lack of DIF expense) and active share repurchase should still result in high- single digit EPS growth in 2019. This comes despite a 25% increase in the loan loss provisio

8、n.For 2019, most banks guided to: modest loan growth (though broad-based), stable to modestly higher net interest margins (evenwithout any Fed hikes), higher fee income, positive operating leverage (aided by lack of DIF surcharge), higher loan loss provision from historically low levels with only a

9、modest increase in net charge-offs (from historically low levels), higher tax rates (though below prior expectations), active share repurchase, and reduced capital ratios.Still,wecaution,resultsin1Q19faceseveralheadwinds.Theywillbeadverselyimpactedbytwofewerdaysweighingonnet interestincome(thoughthe

10、fullimpactofthemid-DecemberFedhikeshouldhelptooffset);reducedmortgageoriginations;thespill- overeffectof4Q18sequitymarketsell-offparticularlyforthosebusinessesthatpriceonalaggedbasis;andseasonallyelevatedexpenses associated with the timing of compensation awards and payroll taxes. In addition, recal

11、l recent accounting changes reduced income taxes in 1Q17 and 1Q18 when prior year equity grants were vested at stock prices higher than the price at the grant date.Unlessthereisamoremeaningfulrallyinbankstockprices,wemightnotseeasimilarbenefitin1Q19.Ontheotherhand,trading revenue tends to be seasona

12、lly stronger in1Q.ALLY - HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2435051 4Q18 EPS Review: Initial Outlook Gives the Green Light for 2019 (1/30/19)Excel model: HYPERLINK /go/BC/barcaplive?url=%252FRSL%252Fjsp%252FShowModel.jsp%253FmFile%253Dyes%2526mBanner%253Dyes%2526equityDept%253D127%2526eq

13、uityTicker%253DALLY&menuCode=EqResearch ALLY (1/31/19)2019 Outlook: ALLY provided its initial 2019 outlook calling for: 1) Adjusted EPS growth of 7-10% (from an adjusted $3.34 in 2018, implies 2019 EPS of $3.57-$3.67 vs. consensus of $3.56 or +7%); 2) Core ROTCE of 12-13%+ (targeted 12%+ in 2018, po

14、sted 12.3%);3) net adjusted revenue up 4-6% (from $6.01bn in 2018, implies $6.25-$6.37bn vs. consensus of $6.27bn); 4) adjusted efficiency ratio flat to down 100bps from 47.6% in 2018 (implies stable to modestly positive operating leverage); 5) adjusted retail auto NCOs low end of 1.40-1.60% compare

15、d to 1.33% in 2018.Strategic Priorities: It included a slide on strategic priorities for 2019 including: 1) ongoing optimization of auto & insurance; 2)sustained deposit growth & customer acquisition; 3) scale in expanded digital product offerings; 4) efficient capital management & disciplined risk

16、management; 5) ongoing execution along earnings growth path; 6) culture of relentless focus on customers,communities, associates and shareholders.Net interest income: Core net financing revenue was up 3.0% in 4Q18 to $1.163bn or $4.6bn annualized. It continues to see annual net interest income growi

17、ng to $5bn over time.Rate sensitivity: The net financing revenue impact versus the forward curve for a gradual +100bp shift was a $51mn increase in its modeled scenario, up from a $3mn reduction last quarter.Autoloanyields:Theretailautoloanyieldwas6.39%(+17bps)in4Q18,butsinceALLYhasbeenputtingonloan

18、sabove7.00%this quarter,itshouldseeanincreaseinretailautoyieldsin1Q19.Typically,thelowestseasonalyieldsarein1Qand4Qwithamodest uptick in2Q.Auto originations: Auto originations in 4Q18 totaled $8.2bn, down 10% from 4Q17 but up 1% from 3Q18. Still, 2018 originations totaled $35.4bn up 2% from 2017 and

19、 it stated it feels good about volume and quality heading into 2019.Mortgage: ALLY has been buying bulk jumbo loans as it continues to grow the held-for-investment portfolio as part of its diversification strategy into capital efficient assets. ALLY continues to invest in the build-out of Ally Home,

20、 its direct-to-consumer product offering.Deposits: Total deposits reached $106.2bn in 4Q18, well above its previous target to exceed $100bn in 2H18. The average rate on the retail deposit portfolio was up 63bp y-o-y and 15bps from 3Q18 as deposit pricing remains competitive. Still, its cumulative be

21、ta is around 35% while its expectations for medium term deposit betas remain in the 30-50% range.Debt maturities: ALLY has $1.6bn of long-term debt maturities in 2019 ($3.6bn matured in 2018) with a weighted average coupon of 3.6% and another $2.3mn with a weighted average coupon of 6.5% maturing in

22、 2020. It expects to use incremental deposits toreplace some of the secured debt or the securitizations.Capital: It currently feels comfortable with the 9.0% CET1 target ratio. It was 9.1% in 4Q18, though seasonally higher commercial auto balances weighed.BAC HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentP

23、ubID=FC2432087 4Q18 EPS Review: Celebrates its Sweet Sixteen with a Stock Pop (1/16/19)Excel model: HYPERLINK /go/BC/barcaplive?url=%252FRSL%252Fjsp%252FShowModel.jsp%253FmFile%253Dyes%2526mBanner%253Dyes%2526equityDept%253D127%2526equityTicker%253DBAC&menuCode=EqResearch BAC (1/17/19)NII:Resultsin1

24、Q19areexpectedtobenegativelyimpactedbyabout$200mnfortwofewerinterestaccrualdaysthan4Q18.Still,it seesDecemberratehikeandloangrowthasnettailwinds.Whilethemarketmaynowbelievethattheinterestratehikeshavestopped, BAC believes it can grow net interest income without rate hikes, assuming modest levels of

25、loan and deposit growth.NIM:In1Q19BACexpectsitsnetinterestmargintoedgeupalittlebitdrivenbyloangrowth,fundedbylow-costdeposits.Longer term,NIMisgoingtodependontheforwardcurveandBACsabilitytolagdepositratepaid.Ratesensitivity:A+100bpsparallelshiftintheinterestrateyieldcurveisestimatedtobenefitNIIby$2.

26、7bn(downfrom+$2.9bnat 3Q18)overthenext12months,drivenprimarilybysensitivitytoshort-endinterestrates(shortendrepresentsapproximately75%of this sensitivity).1Q19 Expenses: Typically 1Q expenses seasonally increase compared to 4Q. In addition to any increase related to seasonal revenue in 1Q (trading,

27、etc.), BAC anticipates the 1Q19 expense will be higher than 4Q18 by approximately $500mn due to seasonal personnel costs, mostly payroll tax. BAC expects expenses to trend lower from the 1Q19 level through the remaining quarters of 2019.2019 Expenses: As it looks ahead to 2019, BAC believes its full

28、 year expenses should approximate the 2018 expense level (reported expenses were $53.4bn in 2018). This expense level includes approximately $1bn for increased spending in the aggregate in several areas: typical yearly merit increases, health care benefits, primarily from inflation, marketing and th

29、e previously announced newinvestment initiative spending in technology as well as expansion and modernization of its financial centers. On a full year basis, BAC should be able to offset these investments with lower FDIC insurance costs and other efficiencies.NCOs: BAC expects NCOs to remain around

30、$1bn range on a quarterly basis through 2019, and it would expect provision to roughly match NCOs, depending on loan growth.Debtissuance:BACiscomfortablyincompliancewithTLACrules.Itexpectsparentdebtissuancein2019tobelessthanits corresponding maturities.Taxrate:For2019,BACexpectsitseffectivetaxrateto

31、be19%ex.unusualitems.Onanoperatingbasis,webelieveit approximated this level in2018.Capitalreturn:BACexpectstoattheminimumsustainitscurrentpayoutratioinCCAR2019(wasabove100%attimeofCCAR2018 submission, now closer to95%).BK - HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2432087 4Q18 EPS Review: Poin

32、ting to Reasonable EPS Growth in 2019 (1/16/19)Excel model: HYPERLINK /go/BC/barcaplive?url=%252FRSL%252Fjsp%252FShowModel.jsp%253FmFile%253Dyes%2526mBanner%253Dyes%2526equityDept%253D127%2526equityTicker%253DBK&menuCode=EqResearch BK (1/27/19)EPS Growth: BK expects reasonable EPS growth in 2019 (ex

33、. notable items)Fee Income: BK noted that Investment Management fee revenue for 1Q19 is expected to be impacted by lower market levels and outflows from 4Q18.NII: Based on current assumptions, BK expects 1Q19 net interest income to be flat to up compared to 4Q18. These assumptions include interest-b

34、earing deposits remaining stable q-o-q and improvement in yield in its loan and securities portfolio q-o-q.Deposits: QTD, interest-bearing deposits are relatively flat compared to 4Q18. In addition, BK expects the noninterest-bearingdeposits to continue to tick down as interest rates increase. BKs i

35、ncremental deposit beta is currently 82% across all currencies. Still, when looking at core U.S. interest-bearing deposits (ex. wholesale funding), its deposit beta has moved from the mid-80% range tonear 100%.Pershing: BK expects Pershing to return to revenue growth in the near future. After 1Q19,

36、Pershing will have overlapped the impact of losing two larger clients, which has been a drag on y-o-y growth rates. In addition, BK continues have a sizable pipeline of newbusiness that it is currently on boarding, but will start to go live in 2H19 and have a more meaningful impact in 2020.Corporate

37、 Trust: BK continues to see improved results in its core Corporate Trust business, resulting from repositioning of its front office sales/relationship management teams. In addition, its investment in improving technology capabilities has aided growth. BK continues to see a strong pipeline, particula

38、rly for collateralized loan obligations and insurance-linked securitiesTreasury Services: BK continues to see moderate growth in Treasury Services. Its focus of growing liability balances from its Treasury Services clients has been paying off as BK has experienced growth in attracting competitively

39、priced interest-bearing client deposits to support client payment activities.Collateral Management: In 4Q18, BK saw strong revenue growth from its traditional clients and newly converted government clearing broker-dealer clients. In addition, it benefited from higher clearance volumes related to rec

40、ord issuance levels and strong demand forU.S. government treasury issuance. BK believes its Clearance and Collateral Management capabilities are among the best in the industry and its collateral optimization/segregation services go beyond what competitors can provide. As collateral management become

41、s increasingly more important part of the investment process, BK expects to be a major beneficiary.Securities Portfolio: The yield on its securities portfolio should continue to move higher throughout 2019 as it benefits from higher short-term and reinvestment rates. Its securities portfolio has a 2

42、 year duration, with 30% repricing each quarter.Expenses: BK does not expect its 2019 expense base to be significantly higher than 2018 (ex. notable items). During 4Q18, BKreduced management layers, which resulted in a severance charge that is expected to have a payback less than 1 year. These savin

43、gs and other efficiencies should allow BK to increase its investment in technology and infrastructure without significantly increasing itsexpensebase.BKseesmeaningfulopportunitiestobecomemoreefficientacrossthecompanyasitlookstoautomatemanymanual tasks.Recall,BKincreaseditstotaltech-spendto$2.7bnin20

44、18,upfrom$2.4bnin2017(itexpectsittobehigheragainin2019).This tech/investment spend continues to be focused on enhancing its operating platform and expanding its capabilities to support organic growth.1Q19 Expenses: 1Q expenses are seasonally higher due to the acceleration of long-term incentive comp

45、ensation for retirement-eligible employees (it expects the impact to staff expense to be similar to 2018). Excluding notable items, BK expects 1Q19 expenses to be up 1-2% y-o-y and q-o-q.Tax Rate: BK expects its 2019 effective tax rate to be 21%.PG&E: BK has $160mn said it has exposure to California

46、 utility company, which may file for bankruptcy (we believe to be PG&E).Reflecting this, BK increased its provision during the quarter and could have additional provisioning depending how the circumstance develops.BBT HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2432425 4Q18 EPS Review: Shifting F

47、ocus to Disrupt to Thrive (1/17/19)Excel model: HYPERLINK /go/BC/barcaplive?url=%252FRSL%252Fjsp%252FShowModel.jsp%253FmFile%253Dyes%2526mBanner%253Dyes%2526equityDept%253D127%2526equityTicker%253DBBT&menuCode=EqResearch BBT (1/18/19)2019Outlook(matchesitsNovember2018InvestorDayguidance):1)Loans: up

48、2-4%;2)NCOs: 0.30%-0.50%;3)Revenues:up 2-4%;4)Expenses:flat(vs.$6.8bnbase);and5)Taxrate:20-21%.Its2019Outlookisforecastoffarelativelyflatcurve(norate increases).1Q19Outlook:1)Loans:up1-3%annualized;2)NCOs:0.35-0.45%(0.38%in4Q18);3)GAAPNIM:relativelyflatwith4Q18 (3.49%in4Q18);4)CoreNIM:upslightlyfrom

49、4Q18(3.40%in4Q18);5)Feeincome:up3-5%y-o-y;6)Expenses:up1-3%y-o-y;7)Taxrate:20-21%;and8)Buybacks: Planstorepurchase$425mninsharesin1Q19(upfrom$375mnin4Q18and$200min 3Q18).“Disrupt or Die” rebranded “Disrupt to Thrive”. BBT is looking to make substantial progress on its strategic initiatives. It is in

50、vesting a large amount of savings from process improvement into its digital platform and other forms of technological. Investments that allow it innovate for the future (60-70% of saves are being reinvested into business and 30% to 40% falling to the bottom line).NIM: Going forward, it still sees so

51、me burn out of reported GAAP margin (from the incremental decline in purchase accountingaccretion), but thinks it can keep core NIM relatively flat to up little bit.Share repurchases: At its November 2018 Investor Day, BBT talked about reducing its CET1 ratio from 10.2% to 9.50-9.75%, subject to the

52、 Fed easing LCR requirements. It expects this to be reflected in CCAR 2019.Restructuringcharges:Ofits$76mnrestructuringchargein4Q18,roughly2/3wasseverancecostsrelatedtoBBTsexpandinglayers initiativesthatitstartedin4Q18,andtheother1/3wasinrealestate.Whileitbooked$150mninmergerandrestructuringchargesi

53、n 2018,itexpectstobookanother$75-100mnin2019,morefocusedaroundrealestatewrite-downsasBBTcontinuestoclosemoreretail branches, and consolidate office space.Revenue growth: The key drivers behind its 2019 revenue growth expectation of 2-4% are roughly 60% in fees and 40% in NII. It isseeingstrongloangr

54、owth,andifitcankeepitsNIMstable,thatshouldresultinstrongNIIgrowth.BBTpointedtostrongmomentum ininsuranceandinvestmentbanking&brokerage,whileitsretailfeebusinessesarealsogrowing.Deposittrends:Ifratesaccelerate,itcouldseemorecashmoveoutofnoninterest-bearingdeposits,ascustomersuseexcesscash insteadofmo

55、reexpensiveborrowingoptions.Thisquarter,BBTisbeingmuchmoreaggressiveontheretaildepositsideitisrunning promotionalpricing forMMDAaccounts and inretailCDs.RF insurance: The RF deal is already accretive to BBTs insurance business margins. Post acquisition, BBT implemented robotics to help take costs ou

56、t and reconceptualised its business. It expects insurance pricing to move up and feels positive regarding the futureoutlook for its insurance business.Consent order: Its BSA/AML consent order with the Fed remains outstanding. To date, BBT has competed all remaining project orders and automation proj

57、ect that was scheduled to be completed by the end of the year. It is currently in the final validation period. BBTexpects the Fed consent order to be lifted in the relatively near term, once validation is completed.Creditcosts:BBTexpectsnetcharge-offstobeintherangeof35-45bpsin1Q19(0.38%in4Q18).Itslo

58、anlossprovisionisexpected to match net charge-offs plus loangrowth.Deposit beta: The deposit beta for 4Q18 remained in the low 40% range (43% in 3Q18 and 41% in 2Q18).C HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2431482 4Q18 EPS Review: Expects ROTCE & Efficiency Improvement in 2019/20 (1/14/19)

59、Excel model: HYPERLINK /go/BC/barcaplive?url=%252FRSL%252Fjsp%252FShowModel.jsp%253FmFile%253Dyes%2526mBanner%253Dyes%2526equityDept%253D127%2526equityTicker%253DC&menuCode=EqResearch C (1/15/19)ROTCETargets:CexpectstoachieveanROTCEof12%in2019and13.5%-plusin2020.CslongtermROTCEtargetis16% (increased

60、 from14%atourSeptconference).NII: While the benefit from rate hikes should decrease in 2019, it should be offset by a smaller drag from trading-related NIR andlegacy assets. In addition, C will benefit from the absence of the FDIC surcharge ($400 million benefit). Net-net, C expects to generate at l