在经济增长放缓和贸 易战中幸存：赢家和输家

1、Evidence Lab survey result highlightsWinter of corporate earnings is deepeningRevenue outlook: weaker overall and more divergentRespondents were marginally more pessimistic about future sales revenue. Polarization continues to spread: a higher number of respondents expected sharp revenue increases (

2、13% versus 11% in the fourth survey) and significantlydecreasedrevenues(12%versus9%previously).Strong sectors: financials held the most positive outlook on revenue byfar.Weak sectors: staples/education/industrials/materials posted the highest reenue outook readngs for tay the ame, omewht dreae and g

3、nfanty dereae.Sep201913%64%11% 12%Apr 2019 11%67%12% 9%Aug 2018 11%62%17% 10%Jan 2018 10%64%17% 9%July 2017 8%70%13% 8%Figure1:Salesoutlook(JulSep201913%64%11% 12%Apr 2019 11%67%12% 9%Aug 2018 11%62%17% 10%Jan 2018 10%64%17% 9%July 2017 8%70%13% 8%Telecommunication ServicesRealITConsumerDiscretionar

4、y Consumer Staples Health Materials0%20%40%60%80%100%SignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseStaythesameSomewhatdecrease Significantlydecrease0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseStaythesameSomewhat SignificantlydecreaseSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabFigure 3: Secto

5、rs responded with significant or somewhat increase on sales outlook (Apr 2019 vs Sep 2019)100%0%13.7ppts13.2ppts12.5ppts6.7ppts0.0ppts-1.0ppts-2.1ppts16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%Apr- 19Sep- 19Apr- 19Sep- 19Apr- 19Sep- 19Apr- 19Sep- 19Apr- 19Sep- 19Apr- 19Sep- 19Apr- 19Sep- 19Ap

6、r- 19Sep- 19FinancialsConstructionTelecom ServicesMaterialsUtilitiesOverallConsumer Real EstateSignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseChange between the latest 2 waves(RHS)Source: UBS Evidence LabProfit margins: pressure rising across the boardA higher number of respondents expected profit margins to

7、fall, with the combined reading at its highest level since our July 2017 survey. Fewer respondentsexpectedrisingprofitmargins,withthereadingatitslowestpoint sincethesurveysinceptioninJuly2017.Thereishowever,stillastablefraction of respondents (3%) that expect profit margins to risesharply.Strong sec

8、tors: financials, energy, and healthcare posted the highest reading for modestly or sharply risingprofits.Weak sectors: education (intense marketing and promotional activities) and consumer staples (inability to raise prices) posted the highest readings for experiencingsharpfallsinmargins,followedby

9、materialsandindustrials.RealEstate Consumer StaplesMaterials ITConsumerDiscretionary Telecommunication ServicesHealthCareFigure4:Expectedprofitmargin(JulRealEstate Consumer StaplesMaterials ITConsumerDiscretionary Telecommunication ServicesHealthCareSep3% 26%28%40%3%Apr Aug 2% 22%1%17%26%31%48%2%48%

10、2%Jan2%19%29%46%3%July1% 22%28%46%2%0%20%40%60%80%100%FallsharplyFallmodestlyRemainflatRiseRisesharply0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%FallsharplyFall modestlyRemainflatRiseRisesharplySource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabExport order outlook: more haves and more have-notsExportneworderreadingsshowedsi

11、milarlyincreasingpolarizationasrevenue and profit margin outlook readings. There appears to be more movement at the two extremes of the readings than in the stable middle. On the one hand, exportsmayhaverisenduetogreaterproductandservicecompetitivenessand wider geographic reach, while, on the other

12、hand, they may have decreased due to weaker external demand, for example, higher UStariffs.Financials outperformed, and real estate posted the highest readings for significantly rising export orders.Eduaion poted hgh readngs for gnifanty nrease and gnfantly dreae n eport nw ordr.Sep 2019 12%53%17%13

13、%4%Apr 2019 9%66% Aug 2018 8%60%19%Jan 2018 9%62%July 2017 5%60%Figure6:Exportneworderoutlook(Jul2017-Sep2019)Figure7:ExpectneworderSep 2019 12%53%17%13%4%Apr 2019 9%66% Aug 2018 8%60%19%Jan 2018 9%62%July 2017 5%60%Telecommunication ServicesReal ITConsumerDiscretionary Consumer StaplesHealth 0%20%4

14、0%60%80%100%SignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseMaterials0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%StaythesameSomewhat SignificantlydecreaseSignificantlyincreaseSomewhat increase StaythesameSomewhatSignificantlydecreaseCant sayNote:Forrespondentsthatexportproductand/orservices. Source: UBS EvidenceLabNote:Forresponde

15、ntsthatexportproductand/orservices. Source: UBS EvidenceLabRelative steadiness in domestic new order outlookWhile a similar polarization pattern is apparent in domestic new orders, the readng fr gnfanty dreae was oer thn n eport nw orders.Ahighernumberofrespondentsexpectedasignificantincreasein dome

16、sticneworders,whichindicatesstabledomesticdemand.Strong sectors: financials and utilities, which are domestic demand driven, took the lead.Weaker sectors: materials, staples and real estate posted the highest readings for weakening domesticorders.Sep201915%59%17% 8%Apr 201913%60%18% 9%Aug 2018 11%57

17、%24%7%Jan 2018 11%54%27%7%July 2017 8%61%22%8% RealConsumer StaplesITSep201915%59%17% 8%Apr 201913%60%18% 9%Aug 2018 11%57%24%7%Jan 2018 11%54%27%7%July 2017 8%61%22%8% RealConsumer StaplesITConsumerDiscretionaryHealth Telecommunication ServicesMaterials0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Significantly increase

18、Somewhat increase StaythesameSomewhatdecrease Significantlydecrease0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Significantly increase Somewhat increase StaythesameSomewhatdecrease SignificantlydecreaseSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabPricing outlook: slight weakening on the marginWeaksectors:realestate(signi

19、ficantlypolarizedwithsomecommanding high pricing power and others cutting prices); Construction(down-cycle of the property market), IT (had weaker expectations for pricing power due to the development of cloud computing), andmaterials.Real ITMaterials ConsumerDiscretionaryConsumer StaplesTelecommuni

20、cation ServicesHealthCareFigure10:Expectedpricingpower(Jul2017-Sep2019)Figure11:ExpectedReal ITMaterials ConsumerDiscretionaryConsumer StaplesTelecommunication ServicesHealthCareSep 2019 5%24%61%9%Apr 2019 7%19%63%10%Aug 20188% 16%66%9%Jan 20188%19%64%8%July 20178%23%58%0%20%40%60%80%100%Cuttingpric

21、esLow pricing power Medium pricing power High pricing power Cant say0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%CuttingLow pricing powerCuttingMediumpricingpowerHigh pricingpower Cant saySource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabFigure 12: Sectors that expected cutting prices or low pricing power (Apr 2019 vs Sep 201

22、9)2ppts Apr-19 Sep-19EnergyApr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19ConstructionIndustrialsApr-19 Sep-19Consumer DiscretionaryApr-19 Sep-19OverallApr-19 Sep-192ppts Apr-19 Sep-19EnergyApr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19ConstructionIndustrialsApr-19 Sep-19Consumer DiscretionaryApr-19 Sep-19OverallApr-19 Sep-19Financialsts3ppppt

23、sppts2ppts0pptsCuttingpricesLowpricingpowerChange between the latest 2 waves(RHS)Source: UBS Evidence LabLosersaside,US-Chinatradefrictionmaybreed newbeneficiariesUnsurprisingly,US-Chinatradefrictionrankedasthenumberoneexternalbusiness risk among the surveysrespondents.28%18%21%19%8%7%11%12%Figure13

24、:US-Chinatradefrictionranksas#1externalriskfactorfor businesses, September 2019survey28%18%21%19%8%7%11%12%100%17%39%14%30%3%37%32%6%36%17%39%14%30%3%37%32%6%36%7%33%20%7%33%20%US-China frictionsRMB depreciation risk European politicalinstabilityBrexit-related factorsSignificantnegativeeffectSome ne

25、gative effectNoeffectSome positive effectSignificant positive effectSource: UBS Evidence LabTrade stand-off: both losers and winners rising in numbersAsshownin HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Figure14,ahighernumberofrespondentsreportedpositiveand negativeimpactsfromtheUS-Chinatradestand-off,withthenegativere

26、ading outweighing the positive reading. A surprising 30% of the respondents reported some positive and significant positive effects from the US-China trade tensions on their businesses. This is consistent with the polarization in exportnewordersandrevenueoutlookshowninthesurveyresults.As we discusse

27、d HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 above, a higher proportion of respondents expecting export nw ordrs and reenue to gnfanty inreae ndcates certan ndutry participants are likely benefitting from market consolidation and import substitution or even penetrating overseasmarkets.Overwhelmingpositiveimpactacrossse

28、ctorsfinancialsandhealthcare: Forthefinancialindustry,thedeleveragingeffortsover2018endedinQ4as tradestand-offsfurthersloweddownthepaceofeconomicgrowth.Creatingsectordivergenceenergy,realestate,IT,andeducation:ForIT, certaincompaniesarenowontheUSgovernmentsentitylist.Overwhelmingly negative impact a

29、cross sectors materials and industrials:ForITandtelecomequipment,certaincompaniesarenowonthe US governments entitylist.Figure14:ImpactfromUS-Chinatrademorepolarized(Jul 2017-Sep2019)Figure 15: Impact on US-China trade by sectorSep12%18%14%39%17%Apr 2019 9%20%19%43%10%Aug 20187% 12%14%49%18%Jan10%32%

30、24%28%7%July11%24%20%40%5%Financials Utilities EnergyITFinancials Utilities EnergyITReal ConsumerDiscretionaryHealth Consumer StaplesTelecommunication ServicesMaterialsSignificantpositiveeffectSome positive effect NoeffectSome negative effect Significant negativeeffect0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Signific

31、antpositiveeffectSome positive effect NoeffectSome negative effect Significant negativeeffectSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabFigure 16: Sectors that expected significantly or some positive effect from US-China trade (Apr 2019 vs Sep 2019)50%50%40%40%30%28.4ppts30%20%21.5ppts20.8ppts18.8

32、ppts16.7ppts20%10%10%0%Apr- 1919Apr- 1919Apr- 1919Apr- 1919Apr- 19193.8pptsApr- 19191.4pptsApr- 19191.0ppts 0% Apr- Sep-1919Real UtilitiesEducationEnergyITOverallSignificantlypositiveeffectSomepositiveeffectChange between the latest 2 waves(RHS)Source: UBS Evidence LabFigure 17: Sectors that expecte

33、d significantly or some negative effect from US-China trade (Apr 2019 vs Sep 2019)80%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%706055.0ppts504028.7ppts3018.0ppts2012.6ppts10.7ppts10Apr- 1919Apr- 1919Telecom Services Consumer StaplesApr- 1919IndustrialsApr- 1919Consumer Discretionary3.0ppts2.95ppts2.86ppts 0%Apr- 70

34、6055.0ppts504028.7ppts3018.0ppts2012.6ppts10.7ppts10Apr- 1919Apr- 1919Telecom Services Consumer StaplesApr- 1919IndustrialsApr- 1919Consumer Discretionary3.0ppts2.95ppts2.86ppts 0%Apr- Sep-Apr- Sep-Apr- Sep-Apr- 1919191919191919HealthCareOverallITConstructionSource: UBS Evidence LabFigure 18: Effect

35、 from RMB depreciation on business (Aug 2018-Sep 2019)Figure 19: Effect from RMB depreciation by sectorSep 2019 11%Apr 2019 8%28%27%20%20%33%7%40%5%Telecommunication ServicesRealEstate IT ConsumerDiscretionaryConsumer StaplesHealth Aug 2018 7%20%14%48%12%Materials Education0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%2

36、0%40%60%80%SignificantpositiveeffectSome positive effect NoeffectSome negative effect Significant negativeeffectSignificantpositiveeffectSome positive effect NoeffectSome negative effect Significant negativeeffectSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabFigure 20: Sectors that expected significa

37、ntly or some positive effect from RMB depreciation (Apr 2019 vs Sep 2019)80%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%706053.6ppts50403021.7ppts2015.0ppts11.43ppts10.4ppts7.6ppts6.7ppts6.3pptsApr-Sep-Apr-Sep-19 1919 19HealthCareFinancialsApr- Sep- 19 19MaterialsApr-Sep-Apr-706053.6ppts50403021.7ppts2015.0ppts11.43p

38、pts10.4ppts7.6ppts6.7ppts6.3pptsApr-Sep-Apr-Sep-19 1919 19HealthCareFinancialsApr- Sep- 19 19MaterialsApr-Sep-Apr-Sep-19 19Construction19 19104.0ppts0%Apr-Sep-Apr-Sep-Apr-Sep-Apr-19 1919 1919 1919 19RealEstateEnergyEducationOverallSource: UBS Evidence LabCorporates are raising R&D; cutting T&E,non-

39、core assets, but notstaffCoping with greater competition: higher capex/R&D, less M&A activityThestrongestreadingcamefromcompetition.Theweakestreadingcamefrom M&A, perhaps due to reduced risk appetite over the corporate profit cycles winter equivalent.8%11%12%12%14%19%26%29%38%47%56%52%25%41%36%25%18

40、%19%17%17%21%12%10%6%Figure 21: Expected changes in the following aspects in H2198%11%12%12%14%19%26%29%38%47%56%52%25%41%36%25%18%19%17%17%21%12%10%6%100%80%60%40%20%0%CompetitionCapital expenditureCreditneedsDividendsMergersAcquisitionsSignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseStaythesameSomewhatdecrea

41、seSignificantlydecreaseSource: UBS Evidence LabHealthcare had the highest reading for rising competition in H219 (see NationalexpansionofGPOupcoming).Industrials,energyandmaterials,which ranked poorly on most metrics in this survey, were expecting reduced competition during H219, indicating perhaps,

42、 they may recover at some point in time as weaker participants exit thebusiness.Figure22:Expectedchangeincompetition(Jul2017-Sep 2019)Figure 23: Expected change in competition in H219 by sectorSep19%52%19%Apr 201915%51%22%9%3%Aug 201817%49%24%Jan18%47%21%12%2%July18%56%17%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Sign

43、ificantly increase Somewhatincrease StaythesameSomewhat Significantly decrease Cant sayHealthHealthFinancials RealITConsumerDiscretionaryMaterials Consumer Staples Telecommunication ServicesSignificantlyincreaseSomewhat increase StaythesameSomewhatdecrease Significantly decrease CantSaySource: UBSEv

44、idenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabGreaterindicationofcapexinH219,particularlybyfinancials,utilities and realestateInterestingly, a higher number of respondents expected capex to increase in H219,withfinancials,utilities,andrealestatepostingthehighestreadings. FewerrespondentsexpectedcapextodecreaseinH

45、219versusthelastsurvey.Education, staples and materials offered high readings for significant dereae or omewhat decreae n cape.However, almost half (48%) of the companies negatively affected by the US- China trade war had cut their domestic capex in response to the trade war in the Sep 2019 survey;

46、higher than the 38% in the Aprilsurvey. RealTelecommunication ServicesConsumer StaplesITHealthCare ConsumerDiscretionaryMaterialsFigure24:Expectedchangesincapex RealTelecommunication ServicesConsumer StaplesITHealthCare ConsumerDiscretionaryMaterialsSep14%56%18%Apr 2019 8%56%20%13%3%Aug 2018 8%Jan 2

47、018 9%53%60%24%21%July10%55%26%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Significantly increase Somewhat increase StaythesameSomewhatdecrease Significantlydecrease0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Significantly increase Somewhat increase StaythesameSomewhatdecrease SignificantlydecreaseSource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceL

48、abFigure 26: Sectors that expect significant or somewhat increase in capex (Apr 2019 vs Sep 2019)90%30%23.87ppts17.50ppts10.71ppts10.45ppts10.42ppts10.37ppts6.74ppts6.00pptsApr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19FinancialsTeleco

49、m ServicesHealth CareConsumer DiscretionaryUtilitiesEnergyITOverall23.87ppts17.50ppts10.71ppts10.45ppts10.42ppts10.37ppts6.74ppts6.00pptsApr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19 Apr-19 Sep-19FinancialsTelecom ServicesHealth CareConsumer Discre

50、tionaryUtilitiesEnergyITOverall70%25%60%50%40%30%20%10%20%15%10%5%0%0%SignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseChange between the latest 2 waves(RHS)Source: UBS Evidence LabNot surprisingly, R&D and upgrade of equipment and machinery ranked the top two destinations for higher capex/investments, underlyi

51、ng corporate awareness for increased learning and innovation to help lift their corecompetencies and commercial viability under the challenging macro environment currently.Figure 27: R&D, the most-preferred destination for higher capex/investments (Jul 2017-Sep 2019)40%30%20%10%0%Research and develo

52、pmentUpgrade of equipmentmachineryInventory and other working capitalIT upgrade or other IT initiativesGreen field investmentPlants and propertyJuly2017Jan2018Aug 2018Apr 2019Sep 2019Source: UBS Evidence LabBy sector, materials, energy and industrials posted high readings for allocating investments

53、to R&D.By sector, consumer staples, consumer discretionary and industrialsposted high readings for upgrading equipment and machinery.It appears to us that these are the investment years for industrials and materials, while revenue and margins are moving from weak to weaker. But post such tough patch

54、es, we think some participants in these two sectors will outperform when the corporate profit cycles spring seasonreturns.Materials Telecommunication ServicesITRealEstate HealthConsumerDiscretionary Consumer Materials Telecommunication ServicesITRealEstate HealthConsumerDiscretionary Consumer Staple

55、sConsumer Staples Telecommunication Services ConsumerDiscretionaryMaterials IT Health RealEstate 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Rank1Rank2Rank3Rank4Rank5Rank6Rank7RankNotRankedCant say0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Rank1Rank2Rank3Rank 4Rank5Rank6Rank7RankNotRankedCant saySource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLa

56、bA-sharecapexgrowthwasstableinH119withupstreamsectorsoutperforming consumer goods sectors.Our analysts believe the demand for industrial automation, especially in the form of orders from non-exporters, may have bottomed assuming the higher capex intentions shown in the survey. Although it is still a

57、 little bit too early to call a turnaround, we believe that is apossibility.Figure 30: A-share capex growth by sector (on a YTD basis)50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317 Q118 Q318 Q119A-shrexcl.financialsUpstreamsectorsConsumergoodsSource: Wind, UBS estimatesWhere to cut

58、: T&E, non-core projects, and sales/advertising/distributionCuttingtravel&entertainment(T&E),cuttingnon-coreinvestmentprojects,and reducing costs on sales, advertising and distribution ranked as the top three waysamongrespondentsforcuttingcosts.Infact,ouranalystshaveobserved faster- and tighter-than

59、-expected cost controls across industries in H119 earnings results (seereport).Figure31:Expectedwaystocutcostsinthenextsixmonths,September2019 survey60%50%40%30%20%10%TocontrolbudgetonT&ETo cut non-core/futuristic investment projectsTocontrolbudgetonT&ETo cut non-core/futuristic investment projectsT

60、oreducecostsonsales, advertising&distributionTo reduce capexToreducecostsonnew hires/recruitingTo reduce costs on research & developmentTo cutbonusTolayoffemployeesHiringfreezeOtherWe are not going to cut costs in the next 12 monthsSource: UBS Evidence LabWhere not to cut: hiring/payroll/employee, b