保山中医药高等专科学校课件

1、CLEAN FUELS UPGRADE at PETROTRINS POINTE- A-PIERRE REFINERY Mendoza, Argentina October 31, 2006Steve Hilaire1CLEAN FUELS UPGRADE at PETROTROUTLINEIntroductionBusiness Background ScopeEconomicsCapital Expenditure Results & BenefitsProject RisksStatusFinancing Template2OUTLINEIntroduction233Introducti

2、on About Trinidad & TobagoAccess to emerging & developed marketsHighly skilled and trained workforceStable economic/political environmentGlobal leader inExport of MethanolExport of AmmoniaExport of LNG to USA4Introduction About Trinidad Introduction PETROTRIN History1917: Commence Operations of P-a-

3、P Refinery1940/41:Eastern Refinery Established1952:FCCU Installed1956:Acquisition by Texaco1958:No 1 CRU Gasoline Upgrade & BTX1960/62:No 8 CDU, No 1 HTU, No 2 CRU1964/66:Lube Oil & Normal Paraffins1972:No 4 VDU & No 2 HTU Fuel Oil Desulf1985: Acquisition by State1992/96:Refinery Upgrade Phase 1Incr

4、eased Conversion & Full Refining CapacityPartial Revamp of FCCURehab of No 2 HTU, No 2 CRU,New Units: VBU, Hydrogen, Sulfur, MTBEDCS Controls5Introduction PETROTRIN HistoIntroduction PETROTRIN OVERVIEWFully State-ownedCommercially operatedIntegratedExplorationProductionRefiningMarketing6Introduction

5、 PETROTRIN OVERVIntroduction Crude Oil SupplyCrude capacity 168 MBPCDCurrent conversion capacity 150 MBPDLocal crude 40 45 % (low cetane gas oil)Imported crudesVenezuelaBrazilColumbia EcuadorWest Africa (high cetane)7Introduction Crude Oil SupplIntroduction Product SupplyMarketsLocal 100 % - 18% of

6、VolumeRegional 75 % - 30% of VolumeExtra regional 5 % - 20% of VolumeInternational - 32% of VolumeApprox 10 % volume- unfinished/low value productsCRU naphthaLow octane mogasFCCU feed (VGO)8Introduction Product SupplyMIntroduction: Operational Performance R&MFinancial PerformanceProfitabilityCash Fl

7、owROACEMarket PriceMix + VolumesDirect CostOtherSustainingGrowthSales RevenueOPEXCAPEXThere are multiple areas where changes could improve future financial performance Performance Factors Petrotrin is highly sensitive to market price because it is a merchant refinerHigh fuel oil cut & low value prod

8、ucts reduces profitsLacks clean fuels capacityHigh unit operating costs compared to peersIndigenous crude only supplies 40% of needsHigh spend on maintaining competitiveness of old infrastructureProject delays / deferrals have led to missed opportunities 9Introduction: Operational PerfIntroduction:

9、Operational Performance R&M PerformanceProfitabilityCash FlowROACEMarket PriceMix + VolumesDirect CostOtherSustainingGrowthSales RevenueOPEXCAPEX Current and Planned R&M Improvement InitiativesA mixture of upgrades and operational changes to improve performanceClean fuels upgrade in progressRefinery

10、 business improvement project (SGSI)E&P oil winning projects (halt production decline)Infrastructure upgrade (planning stage)Bottom of Barrel Upgrade (conceptual stage)Gasoline upgrade (implementation stage)10Introduction: Operational PerfBUSINESS BACKGROUND Driving ForcesGasoline Optimisation Progr

11、amEquipment Integrity No 1 CRU: 3 of 4 Rxs Changed Expect 3 years MaxNo 2 CRU: Remaining Life Estimated at 6 8 yearsSale of Unfinished Low Value ProductReformer Feed Low Octane Gasoline VGO as FCCU Feed Tighter SpecificationsElimination of Lead & MTBE Octane & Volume LossLower Benzene, Sulfur, Olefi

12、ns and RVPIncreased Octane Demand Shortfall of Premium Gasoline to some markets11BUSINESS BACKGROUND Driving BUSINESS BACKGROUND Driving Forces (Contd)Tighter Diesel SpecificationsSulfur ReductionCetane IncreaseDecrease in aromaticsPhase II - BOB UpgradeHigh Fuel percent of Product SalesShrinking Fu

13、el Oil Market12BUSINESS BACKGROUND DrivingBUSINESS BACKGROUND OptionsDiscontinue Refining Operations Huge economic impact on country and South in particular.New refineryGrassroots facility US$3-4 BnUpgrade Current refineryPerformance and Technology13BUSINESS BACKGROUND Options Scope Identified Gasol

14、ine Optimisation ProgramFCCU: Upgrade Capacity from 26,000 BPSD to 35,000 BPSDProduct Octane from 81 MON to 83 MONPre-Fractionation Remove Benzene from CRU feedProvide feed for Isomerisation Isomerisation New 7,400 BPSD using C5/C6 Naphtha Feed Improve Octane from 70 MON to 80 MON14 Scope Identified

15、 Gasoline OptPROGRAM SCOPE (Contd)CCR Platformer Replace Fixed Bed Platformers Improve product Octane from 86 MON to 90 MONAlkylation New using C3/C4 ex FCCUNew Acid Regen PlantOptimize LPG ProductionOffsites & UtilitiesNew Boiler & Water TreatingTanks, Transfer SystemsPower SupplyControl equipmentF

16、lare System15PROGRAM SCOPE (Contd)CCR PlatPROGRAM SCOPE (Contd)New ULSD Hydrogenator 35,000 BPSD unit 8 9 point cetane lift 25% aromatics 8 ppm S16PROGRAM SCOPE (Contd)New ULSDEconomics & Approval LP model RunsDelta economics Base case vs enhancedPrice/markets scenario forecastOptimum configuration

17、determinedCapex EstimatesPublished/licensor dataInflated for time/location/experienceEconomics developedIncreased marginDCFRORNPVPayback 17Economics & Approval LP model Economics & Approval Income statement/Cash Flows generatedSensitivity/ Risk Analyses developedApproval ProcessExecutive managementB

18、oardShareholder - Cabinet 18Economics & Approval Income stCAPITAL EXPENDITURE New Units ISBL 630 MMOSBL, Project Mgmt Other 170 MMTOTAL(2006) 800 MMORIGINAL ESTIMATE650 MM (2005)19CAPITAL EXPENDITURE New Units PROGRAM BENEFITS Gasoline Optimisation ProgramIncrease Gasoline Quantity Total from 24% to

19、 30%Eliminate Unfinished Products (Naphtha & VGO)Improve Gasoline Quality Increase MON from 83 to 86Reduce Benzene from 1.6% to 0.7%Reduce sulphur fron 41 ppm to 8 ppmCustomer SatisfactionLower Olefins in LPGAbility to eliminate MTBE20PROGRAM BENEFITS Gasoline OptiPROGRAM BENEFITS (Contd)ULSD HTUImp

20、rove Gas Oil Quality Increase Pool Cetane Reduce Aromatics/ Pool Sulfur Improved Operations of the P-a-P RefineryEnergy Efficiency & Environmental Compliance Increase full refining capacity to 168 MBPCDAbility to process sour, low cetane crudesPetrocaribe (New)Products displaced from regional market

21、Improved Quality can be marketed elsewhere 21PROGRAM BENEFITS (Contd)ULSD COUNTRY BENEFITSLocal Content:20% or US$ 160 millionMaximize local sub contractorsOffsite Works by PetrotrinConstruction Labor:14million hoursPeak Site Labor:2,800Corp Tax / UL:US$ 375 millionSustained Operations of P-a-P Refi

22、nerySecurity of Fuel Supply / PricesEconomic Activity 22COUNTRY BENEFITSLocal Content:PROJECT RISKSMarket / Product Pricing Delay in Tighter Specs / Conservative Prices UsedCapital Cost OverrunScope of WorkEPC Contracts Hybrid vs Lump SumSchedule DelaysStatutory ApprovalExperienced EPC Contractors I

23、ndustrial relations problemsSkilled sub-contractor labour23PROJECT RISKSMarket / Product PROJECT RISKSTechnology: Well Proven / State-of the ArtEnvironmental: No new type of effluentRefinery systems (current and proposed) adequateFunding:Current Market Conditions Ideal for Loan24PROJECT RISKSTechnol

24、ogy:24StatusPre Frac/IsomerizationEPC awardedPiling commencedCommercial production Dec 2007FCCU upgradeDiscussions on EPC award Hybrid contractProject completion date April 2008 CCR PlatformerEPC Negotiations completeETC December 2008Alky / AcidHybrid contract Lump sum for servicesRe imbursable for Equipment/materials25StatusPre Frac/Isomerization25Status Points to NoteGet Project Manager on board early.Licensor estimates normally low.Dont forget infrastructure and servicesIndustry quite b