翻译材料ps nyt wsj这个内容就挺杂了project-emissions reduction

1、ENVIRONMENT&SUSTAINABILITYRethinking Emiss ReductionMAR 6, 2014David Hone is Chief Climate Change Adviser at Royal Dh S.THE HAGUE Whether at United Nations climate-change summits or one of the many “green growth” forums, renewables and energy efficiency are consistently regarded as the solution to g

2、lobal warming. Even the coal industry adopted the efficiency line in its Warsaw Communiqu,released ahead of the UNs COP19 summit last November. But a closer look at the global energysystem, together wimore refined understanding of the emiss challenge, revealst fossilfuels will likely remain dominant

3、 throughout this century meaningt carbon capture andstorage (CCS) may well be the critical technology for mitigating climate change.The widespread focus on efficiency and renewable energy stems from the dissemination of theKaya Identity, which the Japaeconomist Yoichi Kaya developed in 1993. Kaya ca

4、lculatedCO2 emiss by multiplying total population by per capita GDP, energy efficiency (energy useper unit of GDP), and carbonensity (CO2 per unit of energy). Given the impracticality ofwinning support for proals based on population management or limits on individual wealth,yses using the Kaya Ident

5、ity tend to bypass thetwo terms, leaving energy efficiency andcarbonensity as the most important determinants of total emiss.But this convenientreion does not correspond to reality. The fact ist the rate ato the ocean-atmosphere system is several orders of magnitudewhich CO2 is being releasedgreater

6、n the rate at which it is returning to geological storage through proses likeweathering and ocean sedimenion. In this context, what really matters is the cumulativeamount of CO2 being released over time a factt theerernmental Panel on ClimateChange recognized in its recently released Fifssessment Re

7、port.Since the industrial age began some 250 years ago, roughly 575 billion tons of fossil-fuel andland-fixed carbon moren two trillion tons of CO2 have been releasedo the atmosphere,leading to a shifthe global heat balance and a likely 1C increase in surface temperature (themedian of a distribution

8、 ofes). At the current rate, a trillion tons of carbon, or some 2Cof warming, could be reached as early as 2040.This view does not align with the prevailing mechanisms for measuring progress on emissreduction, whichspecific annuales. While reducing the annual flow of emissby, say, 2050 would be aiti

9、ve step, it does not nesarily guarantee sucs in terms oflimiting the eventual rise in global temperature.From a climate, the temperature rise over time is arguably more a function of the sizeof the fossil-fuel resource base and the efficiency of extraction at a given energy price. Assupply-chain eff

10、iciency increases, so does the eventual extraction and use of resourand,ultimay, the accumulation of CO2he atmosphere. This meanst efficiency may drive, notlimit, the increase in emiss.In fact, since the Industrial Revolution, efficiency through innovation has revolutionized just ahandful of core en

11、ergy-converthe light bulb, the gas turbine, theinventions: theernal combustion engine, the electric motor,engine, and, more recently, the electronic circuit. In allof these cases, the result of greater efficiency has been an increase in energy use and emiss not least because it improved acs to the f

12、ossil-resource base.Countries efforts to rely on renewable energys are similarly ineffective, givent thedisplaced fossil-fuel-based energy remains economically attractive, whieanst it is usedelsewhere or later. And,he case of raly develoeconomies like China, renewable-energydeployment is not replaci

13、ng fossil fuels at all; instead, renewables are supplementing aconstrained fuel supply to facilie faster economic growth. In short, placing all bets onrenewable-energy uptake outpacing efficiency-driven growth, and aefficiency will drive down demand, may be a foolish gamble.mingt enhancedInstead, po

14、licymakers should adopt a new climate paradigmt focuses on limiting cumulativeemiss. This requires,and foremost, recognizingt, while new energy technologies willeventually outperform fossil fuels both practically and economically, demand for fossil fuels tomeet growing energy needs wildheir extracti

15、on and use for decades to come.Most important, it highlights the need for climate policyt focuses on the deployment of CCSsystems, which use various industrial proses to capture CO2 from fossil-fuel use and thenstore it in underground geological formations, where it cannot accumulatehe biosphere. Af

16、terall, consuming a ton of fossil fuel, bshifting or delaying its consumption.apturing and storing the emiss, is very different fromUnfortunay, a policy framework built on this thinking remains elusive. The European Unionsrecently released 2030 framework for climate and energy policies maains the fo

17、cus ondomestic policies aimed at boosting efficiency and deployment of renewable energy. While theframework mentions CCS, whether the EU commits to its deployment remains to be seen.Rallying support and political will for CCS rathern for derivative approachestmisconstrue the nature of the problem wi

18、ll be the real challenge for 2030 and beyond.减排海牙不管是在气候变化上，还是在冲多“绿色增长”上，可再生能源和能源效率一直被认为是全球变暖的解决办法。就连煤炭行业也在其于去年 11 月COP19前发布的华沙公约（Warsaw Communiqu）中划定了一条效率线。但如若更仔细地检视全球能源体系，并更深入地了解排放，就能发现，化石仍将是本世纪最主要的能量源，这意味碳捕捉和（CCS）才是应对气候的。人们广泛关注能源效率和可再生能源，原因在于一（Yoichi Kaya）1993 年所GDP 的能源使用量）以及碳一恒等式。能源的一将总和人均 GDP、能源

19、效率（密集度（含量）相乘，就得到了排放量。管理或限制个人的动议显然不可能获得支持，因此基于密集度就成了总排放量最重要的决定一恒等式的分析总是剔除前两个乘数，于是能源效率和碳。但这一方便的解释与现实并不相符。事实上，向海洋大气排放的速度比风化和海洋沉积等回到生物状态的速度快好几个数量级。因此，真正重要的是随时间排放量的累计值这一事实可见于的第五版评估间气候变化（erernmental Panel on Climate Change）。自 250 年前工业时始以来，大约 5,750 亿吨化石和土地中的碳即两万亿多吨二氧化碳排入了大气，导致了全球热平衡发生变化，地表温度可能因此上升了 1（结果分布的中位值）。按照当前速度，到 2040 年可能会排放 1 万亿吨碳，或导致 2的升温。这一观点与流行的减排进展测量机制不一致，后者关注具体的年度结果目标。尽管到（比如）2050年实现每年的排放流减少是个积极的进步，但这并不能保证全球温度最终上升等目标的成功。从气候角度看，温度随时间升高更大程度上是化石资源基础规模和给定能源价格上的开采效率的函数。随着供应链效率的增加，资源的最终开采和使用量也会增加，从而大气中的量也会增加。这意味着效率可能促进而不是限制排放的增加。积累事