申万海外新能源、中小盘182hk concord new energy group

1、SWS Research is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan 99EastNanjingRoad,+86212329RenewableEnergy|BringingChinatothe30AprilRenewede(HKD YOYe(HKD YOY Market Data: Closing Price ndPriceRevenue (HKD YOY 52week52week High/Low Shares Outstanding Exchange Rate Price Performance EPSDilutedEPSROE Debt/asset Divid

2、end Yield P/E P/BEV/EBITDA Source:Vincent Yu RelatedCONCORD NEW (182:HK)Unclear future Mar Note:DilutedEPSiscalculatedasifalloutstandingconvertiblesecurities,suchasconvertiblepreferredshares,debentures,stockoptionsandwarrants,wereexercised.P/EiscalculatedasclosingpricedividedbyeachyearsUndervalued P

3、E compared to peers. With recent capital inflows frommarket through the ShanghaiStockConnect,renewableenergy stockshavestagedarerating.Longyuan(916:HK), thecountrys windpower leader, isnow trading at 18x 15E PE, while both Huaneng (958:HK) and Suntien (956:HK) are trading at c.15x 15E PE. Given this

4、, we believe Concord, one of the most rapidly develo renewable stocks with a strong asset portfolio yet trading at just 12.9x 15E PE is Renewable Portfolio Standards coming. The National Energy Administration (NEA) published in early April notices on wind power curtailment rates and renewable energy

5、 subsidies, while regional ernments in Inner Mongolia and Hubei Province recently prepared assessments of implementation of theing renewableportfolio standards (RPS), one of the ernments methods of promoting greater purchases of renewable energy power by grids. We see these developments as stronger

6、confirmation that theernmentwillissuefinalapprovaloftheRPSinPotential underlying stock for stock connect. The widely Thecompanydoesnotholdanyequitiesor derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“”),butthen weshallprovidefinancialadvisoryservices subject to the relevant laws and reg

7、ulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the,whi exceed 1percentofissued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the. The Companyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithin its sphere of knowledge. The clients may con

8、tactcomplianrelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogcom under disclosure column for further information. The clients shallhaveacomprehensiveunderstanding of the disclosure and der upon the lastpage.smallcaps,favouredbymainlandinvestors,tothefloodofcapitalflowing . We believe Concord New Energy, as a constit

9、uent of the HSSI, will likely be included as a tradable stock for southbound investors and given its small market cap (HK$5.7bn), may be a focus for domestic investors, which may drive the companys valuation to higher levels.EPC business on track. Concord attributes the delays in i gineering, procur

10、ement and contracting (EPC) projects in 2014 to teething problems in its cooperation with client Huadian Fuxin (816:HK) as well as unexpected issues with construction in southern China. However, Concord expects the maturing relationship to allow it to complete its wind EPC contracts in 2015.Upgrade

11、to BUY. We maintain our earnings forecasts in 2015 at HK$461m (+45.4% YoY), 16E as HK$562 (+22% YoY), and 17E as HK$636.4 (+13.7% YoY). Given the likely catalysts from the release of the RPS for wind and solar stocks and inclusion in the ShenzhenHong Kong Stock Connect, we raise ourprice from HK$0.6

12、1to HK$0.79based on 15x 15E PE, 1.11x 15E PB, or 12.3x 16E PE and 1.02x 16E PB. With 23% upside, we upgrade mendationforConcordfromOutperformtoSWS Research is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan 99EastNanjingRoad,+86212329RenewableEnergy|投资要点BringingChinatothe平普遍上升。龙源电力（916：HK）18xPE15E水平。 新能源（958： HK）和

13、新天绿色能源（956：HK）估值水平在 15 年 15x PE 左右，而协合新能源（182：HK）15E12.9xPE。作为快速发展的优质可再生能源公司之一， 认为协合股价被低估。可再生能源曙光。可再生能源 5 年出台可期，利好新能行业。年 4 月第二周，国家能源局连发两个特急文件，关注风电的“弃风限电”问题以及摸底可再生能源补贴缺口。虽然国家版的可再生能源电力制尚未出炉，但近内、省已台其制相件。潜在 通标的。据策略研究， 通将利好 57 亿港币，包含在恒生小盘股指数中。 预计协合新能源会成为 通标的，HK）合作的磨合加上南方地形的复杂因素。据调研，双方今年合作顺利，EPC 项上调至买入 。

14、维持2015年为4.61亿港币（同比上升），16 年利润为 5.62 亿港币（同比上升 22），17 年利润为 6.36 亿港币（13.7）。基于 制和 通催化剂，及可比公司估值水平，0.611515xPE, 即 0.7915E1.11x或 16E 12.3x PE 和 16E 1.02x PB。股价有 23的上升空间，eCostofGross 000Distribution 34Administrative Finance Profit before etaxMinority 01111ProfitfortheNTtoEquitySource: SWS ConsolidatedCashFlo

15、w000000000000000Source：SWS ConsolidatedBalance本通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Source: SWS KeyFinancialRatiospershareEarningsperDilutedearningsperOperatingCFperDividend per NetassetsperKey Operating GrossprofitEBITDA EBIT GrowthrateofGrowthrateofDebt-to-asset TurnoverrateofnetTurnoverrateoftota

16、lEffective tax rate Dividend yield Valuation Ratios Source: SWS 本通过 仅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用Information Theviews expressedinthisreportaccurayreflect alviews ofthe yst. The yst declaresthat neitherhe/she norhis/herserves as anofficer of nor has any financial interests in relationto the list

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24、et period and the affiliates Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating：Whenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenarkwithinsix monthsafterthereleaseofthisreport, we define the terms as follows:TradingBUY:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedto gen

25、eratemorethan20%upsideovera6monthperiod. BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 12month period.Outperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 1020% upside over a 12month Hold:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10%downsideto1

26、0%upsideovera12monthperiod. Underperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between1020% downside over a 12month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% downside over a 12month period. When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry

27、index and that of the markets benarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthe report, we define the terms as follows:Overweight：Industry performs better than that of the whole Equalweight： Industryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarket；Underweight： Industry performs worse than that of the whole market

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