运营风险管理波兰华沙大学

运营风险管理波兰华沙大学.ProgrammeAimsandobjectives:TogiveanintegratedperspectiveonoperationalriskmanagementToenhancebasicskillsofriskmanagementdevelopmentprogrammesKeytopics:KeyconceptsofoperationalriskmanagementRiskresearchandassessmentRiskmanagement.TraditionalriskmanagementdealswithuncertaintyofmarketsNASDAQStockExchangeBurstofNewEconomy

BoomofNewEconomy

.Whytomanagerisk?OnlyfewoperationalplansrunaccordingtotheinitialschedulesandotherassumptionsThereisnothinglikeanoperationalprogrammefreeofrisks.Apartofbusinesschallengecomesoutfromtheriskbehindthem.Therearemanypowersworkingagainstyourplans.Manywillenjoyyourfalldown.Sometimestheoperationalmanagementrequiresunlikelydecisions,whentheunexpectedoccurs.Itisnotpossibletoforecastandprogrammeaconvenientreactionagainstanyrisk.Howeveragoodmanagerhowtoadapthisplanstomeettherisks.Thereisaverynarrowgapbetweenfoolishnessandareasonableriskanditoutcomesfromagoodunderstandingofpotentiallossesandacceptedriskfortheownerandparticipantsoftheprogrammeorproject.Businessislikeagame.Veryoftenawinnersgrabsthewholepool.Doyoulacktheluck,ormaybeyouareunprofessional?Adaptordie!.Effectsofbusinessprojects.Reality

Whatiscommonfortheseprojects/programmes?EurotunnelMillenniumBugBarringsBank(tradeofderivatives)IRIDIUMcellularnetworkProjectBlue.Whatisrisk?RiskofunlikelyeventsorcircumstancesRiskisrelatedtotheuncertaintyRiskmanagementincludes:concepts,recommendations,procedures,methodsandtechniques,organisationalstructures,methodologies,whichmayreduceoreliminatetheeffectsofunlikelyeventsorcircumstances.Majorerrorsofestimationoftherisk-profitratioCaseI:Aproject,whichistooriskyorcostlyisbeingruntoitsend(Eurotunnel).Effect:significantlylowerriskorlossorevencrash.CaseII:Aprojectrejected,whichpromisedreasonableriskandexceptionalprofit(K’NEX).Effect:winofacompetitor..Personalapproachestorisk

DangerouscharactersandpersonalitiesAlergicallyreactingtoriskDrug-dependentpeopleIgnorantThose,forwhom„thereisnoproblem”uptotheend.AssessmentofriskoccurrencePatternscaleGradeNameDescriptionProbabilityAVeryprobablyThisriskshouldoccur>50%BProbablyOccurrenceofthisriskisquietprobable20–50%CPossibleThisriskmayoccur10–20%DHardlypossibleSmallchanceofoccurrence1–10%EAlmostimpossibleThisriskmayoccurunderexceptionalcircumstances<1%.Scaleofriskeffects

PatternLevelEffectDescriptionLoss[RMB]1MarginalNoeffectonhealth,publicrelations,nolegalproblems.Minimumloss.<1000002UnimportantNoeffectonhealth,publicrelations,nolegalproblems.Marginalloss.100000–10000003FairLimitedeffectonpublicrelations,somelegalproblems.Fairloss.1000000–100000004SubstantialSubstantiallydamagedcompanyimage,significantimpactonhealth.10000000–500000005DevastatingRuinedcompanyimage.substantialimpactonhealthorlife.>50000000.Mapofrisk

Two-dimensionalmatrixofriskestimationP-ELevelProbability54321A(10)(8)(6)(4)(3)B(9)(7)(5)(3)(2)C(7)(5)(4)(3)(2)D(6)(4)(3)(2)(1)E(4)(3)(2)(1)(1).Acceptablerisk

FuzzyconceptRiskeffectsRespectiveactionUnacceptableEliminationortransferUnlikelyTransferorcompensationAcceptableAcceptanceandrelevantactionMarginalMaybeignored.DifferentperspectivesonriskClientSponsorClient’sownerCompanyCompany’sownerInsuringcompanyManagement(legalresponsibility)SubcontractorsEmployeesCompetitorsGovernment,localauthoritiesetc.Publicopinion.MorphologyofriskRISKProbabilityFactorsOutcomesEffectsReasonsCausingeventsPreventionReaction.ModelofriskmanagementprocessReportingEscalationControlDecisionsAggregationMonitoringPerformanceIdentificationAnalysisPlanning.MajorwaystoreactagainstriskPreventionTransferofriskoritseffectstoothers(partner,insurance,forfeiting,factoring,otherthirdparties)Compensationofrisk(derivatives:forwards/futures/options,paralleltransactions)Diversification/distributionofriskContingenciesPreventive/correctingactionsandproceduresNoreaction–acceptanceofpotentialeffects.ContingenciesagainstriskPricemarginBalancesheet/budgetCash-flowLead-timeMaterialsandcapacities(activeorpassive).KeystepsofriskmanagementIdentificationofrisks(reasons,outcomes,effects)Analysisofrisks(probabilities,effectsetc.)RisksmappingProgrammingofpreventingandcorrectingactivities(analysisandevaluationofpotentialvariants):EliminationandreductionofriskimpactsProgrammingofmaterial,organisational(includingpreventiveandcorrectingprocedures)andfinancialcontingenciesInsuranceandcompensationofriskImplementationofthenewcomponentsofriskmanagementProcessesandenvironmentmonitoringReacting:initiationofcorrectingprocedures.PlanningofriskmanagementForeachplannedactivity/operation/process:Identifyrisk,assessprobabilityofoccurrenceAnalyseriskfactors(reasons,causingevents,symptoms!)IdentifypossiblepreventiveandcorrectingactionsIdentifyapplicablecontingenciesAssesseffectivenessofpreventiveandcorrectingactionsandcontingenciesSelectthebesttoolsImplement(plans,procedures,priorities,documentation,monitoring,resources,finance).KeyprinciplesofriskmanagementIt’sacontinuousprocess,usingoutputsofoperationsandenvironmentmonitoringRiskmanagementshouldbeintegratedwithorevenincorporatedintooperationsmanagementPreventiveandcorrectingactionsshouldbeprogrammedStandardisation(e.g.scalesofrisks)Riskauditsshouldbeincorporatedintocompanyaudits.Responsibilitiesofriskmanager

RiskmanageristheowneroftheriskproblemManagementofriskanalysisManagementofprogrammingofpreventiveandcorrectingactivitiesSupervisionofriskmonitoring(milestones!)ControlandsupervisionofpreventiveandcorrectingactivitiesRiskescalationproceduresSupervisionofriskrelatedschedules,budgets,resourcesetc.Supervisionofriskrecords.KeypartiesofriskmanagementOperations/ProjectManagerRiskAdministratorFinancialmanager/ChiefAccountant/TreasurerBank/Insurancecompany/BrokerLawyerRiskmanagerMarketingmanagerClientEngineerAuthorities.KeydocumentsofriskmanagementWorkingdocuments:MapsofrisksScenarios,CEDACdiagramsFinancialassessmentofrisksRisksrecordsCalculationsofsafetyfundsandcontingenciesPlans-recordsofpreventiveandcorrectiveactivitiesRiskrelatedorganisationalproceduresDocumentationrelatedtoinsuranceandcompensationofrisks.ReportingofriskMajorrisksRisksdistributionSignificantchangesofthelevelofrisksEscalationreportsActivitiesCostsCurrentestimationofrequiredbudgetsforcorrectingactions.MethodologiesforriskmanagementWhattheyoffer:ChecklistofriskreasonsandfactorsConsistentmethodsforriskassessmentRecords,databasesPatternproceduresConsistentreporting.Riskmanagement

insomeprojectmanagementmethodologiesMethodologyRiskmanagementincorporationPRINCE2IndirectSSADMIndirectRAMPDirect(QCDfocus).MajorfieldsofbusinessriskOperations:InternalRisksrelatedtodeliveriesandsuppliersRisksrelatedtocustomersRisksrelatedtosubcontractorsInvestmentsFinancialactivities.MajorfactorsofexternalrisksMarketLaw&legalsystemActofGodContractsTransportationContractorsPriceTransactionsOperationsfinancingrelatedriskPaymentsystem(fundtransferinfrastructure)InformationinfrastructureFinancialrisksPoliticsSpying,diversionCivilisationEnvironment.KeyfactorsofinternalrisksPersonnel:IncompetenceMorale(individualandoverall)Resources:Bottlenecks/constrainingresourcesBreakdownsOrganisational:PoororganisationalbehaviourSystemsandmethodsofoperationsmanagementLackofprofessionalapproachriskmanagementKeyeffectsofoperationalriskshaveimpactontheQCD(Quality-Cost-Delivery)triad.Keytoolsofriskmanagement(1)

ScenarioanalysisExpertmethodforpredictionandprojectionofbusinessprocessesExpertsdevelopscenariosof:events,actions,outcomes,effects,statesetc.Appliedtoactionsplanning,fromstrategictooperationallevel,e.g.:identificationandanalysisofriskscascades(waterfalls),preventiveandcorrectiveactionsScenarioanalysismaybebaseduponCEDACdiagrams.Keytoolsofriskmanagement(2)

CEDAC(Cause-and-effectsdiagrams–K.Ishikawa)MaterialsMeasurementTechnologyEquipmentManpowerQualityProduct.TypesofCEDACdiagramsProcessclassification–type1(processstructureonthecentralaxe,causesadded)Processclassification–type2(processstructureoutofthecentralaxe,causesadded)RiskfactorsEnumerativeanalysisofriskcausesandeffectsImplementationofCEDACdiagramsresultsinimprovedqualityoftheriskteamworkCEDACdiagramsareusuallydevelopedduringbrainstormingsessions.Keytoolsofriskmanagement(3)

DelphimethodAssessmentbyteamofexperts(10-50)OpinionsareagreedbyanonymousquestionnairereviewsAimedatminimisationofinter-quartileintervalsFirstquestionnaireincludesthebasicquestionandcompetenceself-evaluationFollowingquestionnairesinclude:Mediansandinter-quartileintervalsforrecentanswersHer/hisrecentanswer(optionally)Argumentsforandagainsther/hisanswer(ifoutsideoftheinter-quartileinterval)Mostfrequentanswers“forandagainst”UsuallytheaimofDelphisessionisachievedafter4steps.Keytoolsofriskmanagement(4)

ThreelevelsmethodAdvantages:SimplicityAvoidedassessmentofprobabilitiesandimpactofindividualfactorsThreetime-seriesarebuilt(e.g.ofcash-flow,lead-times):Oneformostpositivecircumstances(optimistic)Oneformostnegativecircumstances(pessimistic)ThirdoneforthemostexpectedcircumstancesThesethreeseriesprovideroughestimationofpossiblesituation,thusgivebasisforreasonabledecisionsOpenquestion:whoandhowshouldpredictthethreeseries?.Keytoolsofriskmanagement(5)

ExpectedvaluemethodItisweightedaverageforallpossiblevaluesforagivenphenomena,whichmayoccurProbabilityisexpressedasthepercentageofchancefortheoccurrenceofexactvalueExpectedvalueiscalculatedasasumofpossiblevaluesandtheirprobabilitiesOpenquestion:whoandhowshouldestimatethepotentialvaluesandtheprobabilitiesoftheiroccurrence?.Riskmanagement

TenorganisationalwaystoagilityimprovementFlexible,capablehumanandmaterialresourcesFlatstructures,delegatedauthoritiesOne-operationprocesses(e.g.:Onestep-shopping)ParallelprocessesResponsibilitiesattachedtoprocesses,notpositionwithintheorganisationalchartBalancedloads,contingenciesGoodcommunication(MIS,e-Business,m-Businessetc.)Reasonableleveloforganisationalregulations;e.g.flexible(multilevel)budgets,nottoomanyrigidproceduresetc.Standardlead-times,stressoncompressionoflead-timesHighmorale,changeculture,learningorganisation,utilisationofintellectualcapitaletc..OtherorganisationalmethodsagainstrisksOrganisationalsensitivity–quickescalationofrisksymptoms(e.g.attackson:PearlHarbour,undergroundinTokyo,11SeptemberattackonUSA...)Poka-yokeclones:ControlVisualisation/signalisingPreventionCorrection.DuediligenceProcessofproving,thattheprojects/planswerebeingfulfilledinacompetentwayandwithrelevantdiligenceDuediligenceprovesshouldjustify,thatallreasonablemeasuresagainstriskshavebeenapplied,andtheeffectsofriskswerenotbeencausedbyanyone’sindolenceDuediligenceprovesmaybeusedduringlegalproceduresrelatingtoformalresponsibilities:internalorexternal(includingcourts).SymptomsofefficientriskmanagementClosedrisksRisksmovedtorightontheriskmapsLowexpendituresoncorrectingactivitiesLowlossescausedbyrisks.Whatshouldbeavoided

Unreasonablemanagementisalwayscostly!Toosophisticatedriskmanagement,asusuallyoccurswiththenewmanagementconcepts,mayresultinenormousexpensesonconsultingParkinsonlawisalwaysvalid!ArtificialactivitiesmayoccurwithintheriskmanagementaswellThebasicdangerforthecompanyisitsmanag