分析讲稿宏观

1.

Please

explain

the

relationship

among(assets)

and

Capital

value.e,

Capital2 Suppose

c=a+b*(y-t),

y

=

c+i,

please

calculate

the

tax

multiplier,that

is,

if

t

decreases

one

unit,

howmany

units

will

y

rise?Decreasing

one

unit

of

tax,

(1)

will

increase

b

units

of

c,

and

thuswill

increase

b

units

of

y,

(2)

then

will

increase

units

of

c,

thusunits

of

y,

……Tax

multiplier

by

decreasing

oneunit

of

t=+

+ +

⋯

=3

The

Blessings

of

Destruction

(破坏）

suggests

how

much

betteroff

economically

we

all

are

in

war

than

in

peace.

The

believers

seealmost

endless

benefits

in

enormous

acts

of

destruction.

Forinstance,

some

of

them

argued

that

the

Germans

or

the

Japanesehad

a

postwar

advantage

over

the

Americans

because

their

oldplants,

having

been

destroyed

comple y

by

bombs

during

the

war,they

could

replace

them

with

the

most

modern

plants

andequipment

and

thus

produce

more

efficiently

and

at

lower

coststhan

the

Americans

with

their

older

and

half-obsolete

plants

andequipment.

Does

the

logic

make

sense

in

this

example?

Why?

Whatis

your

opinion

of

the

Blessings

of

Destruction?If

the

Destruction

is

truly

a

blessing,

then

why

not

blow

up

the

city?刺激能带来经济增长吗？

/v_show/id_XNDg2MjQ1MzI4.html4(1)

Comment

the

chart(图表)

posted

in

the

article.

Inparticular

explain

why

a

saving

rate

in

the

US

“All

Population”generally

above

the

saving

rate

in

the

“Under

35

years

old”

(asdepicted

in

the

chart)

makes

sense

(or

not)

according

to

thePermanent e

Hypothesis

(PIH).

Why

are

savings

rates

ofthe

“Under

35

years

old”

(the

young)

negative?Answer:As

is

predicted

by

the

PIH/Lifetime

Consumption

Hypothesis,

agentswill

smooth

their

consumption

over

periods.

If

the

young

expect

theirfuture e

will

be

higher

than

the

current e,

they

will

borrowagainst

the

future

to

finance

the

current

period’s

consumption. Ontheother

hand,the e

of

the

mid-age

worker

will

be

higher

than

theirlifetimewhen

retires.e,

hence

their

will

save

to

finance

their

consumptionTherefore,

in

aggregate,

the

young

will

have

lower

savingrate

compared

to

the

“All

population”.(2)

Comment

the

following

paragraphs.

Does

the

“riskaversion”provide

a

falsifiable(可证伪的)explanation

for

theincreased

saving

rate

of

the

under

35

yearsold.Answer:

Cannot

be

falsifiable,

when

people

invoke

changes

inpreferences

is

typically

because

they

do

not

know

how

tothink

about

a

problem

–

ad

hoc

changes

in

preferences

canmatch

any

choice

pattern

observed

in

the

data

so

they

trulyexplain

nothing.5:

which

bond

would

you

expect

to

pay

a

higher

interestrate?Essentially,

there

are

two

reasons

why

interest

exists,except

for

inflation

and

transaction

cost

（risk)ImpatienceOpportunity

to

investmentIn

reality,

Inflation,

transaction

cost,

regulations,

andetc.

will

complicate

the

interest

rates.a.

a

bond

of

the

U.S. ernment

or

a

bond

of

anEastern

European

ernmentTreasury

bonds(国债）is

backed

by

thecredibility,or

is

backed

by

future

tax.ernment’sTax

is

closely

related

with

the

conditions

of

the

economy.East

Europe:一般有地理和政治两种划分方法：政治上：东欧指二战结束后的冷战期间的

阵营各国，包

括前述所有位于欧洲的前

加盟

，还包括波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、马其顿、波黑、克罗地亚、斯洛文尼亚、阿尔巴尼亚。按照自然地理划分，东欧指俄的欧洲部分，以及前独立的国家中的欧洲国家（爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、白俄、

、摩尔多瓦）。The

bond

of

an

eastern

European ernment

would

pay

ahigher

interest

rate

than

the

bond

of

the

U.S.ernment

because

there

would

be

a

greater

risk

ofdefault.b. a

bond

that

repays

the

principal

in

year

2020

or

a

bondthat

repays

the

principal

in

year

2040.Generally,

a

bond

with

longer

term

to

maturity

pays

a

higherinterest

rate:InflationUncertainty

(higher

information

cost)c.

a

bond

fromCoca-Cola

or

a

bond

from

a

softwarecompany

you

run

in

your

garageA

bond

from

a

software

company

you

run

in

your

garagewould

pay

a

higher

interest

rate

than

a

bond

from

Coca-Cola

because

your

software

company

has

more

credit

risk(transaction

cost).Higher

risk

=

higher

returnd.

a

bond

issued

by

the

federalissued

by

New

York

State.ernment

or

a

bondNote

that

municipal

bond

(issued

by

state

and

localernments)

are

immune

to

federal e

tax

on

theinterest

e.Therefore,

a

bond

issued

by

the

federal

ernmentwould

pay

a

higher

interest

rate.6 GDP=8

trillion(万亿）;taxes

=1.5

trillion;private

saving=

0.5

trillion;

public

saving

=

0.2

trillion.

Assuming

thiseconomy

is

closed,

calculate

consumption,

ernmentpurchases,

national

saving,

and

investment.National

saving

=

private

+

public

=

0.7Investment

=

national

saving

=

0.7

ernment

purchases

=

Taxes

–

publicsaving

=

1.5

–

0.2

=1.3Consumption=

GDP

–

I

–

G

=

8

-

0.7

-

1.3

=

67.

Economists

in

Funlandia,

a

closed

economy,

have

collected

the

followinginformation

about

the

economy

for

a

particular

year:Y=

10,000C

=

6,000T

=

1,500G=

1,700The

economists

also

estimate

that

the

investment

function

is:I=

3,300

-

100r,where

r

is

the

country’s

real

interest

rate,

expressed

as

rcentage.Calculate

private

saving,

public

saving,

national

saving,

investment,

and

theequilibrium

real

interest

rate.Privatesaving

is

equal

to

(Y

–

C

–

T)

=

10,000

–

6,000

–

1,500

=

2,500.Public

saving

is

equalto

(T

–

G)

=

1,500

–

1,700

=

-200.National

saving

is

equalto

(Y

–

C

–

G)

=

10,000

–

6,000

–

1,700

=2,300.Investment

is

equal

to

saving

=

2,300.

The

equilibrium

interest

rate

is

found

bysetting

investment

equal

to2,300

and

solving

for

r:3,300

–

100r

=

2,300.100r

=

1,000.r

=

10

percent.8

Suppose

that

Infactory.a.

Assuming

that

Inis

considering

building

a

new

chipmakingneeds

to

borrow

money

in

the

bondmarket,

why

would

an

increase

in

interest

rates

affect

In

’sdecision

about

whether

to

build

the

factory?IRR

(internal

rate

of

return)内在回报率If

interest

rate

>

IRR,

then

the

project

is

not

worth

toinvestb.

If

In has

enough

of

its

own

funds

to

finance

thenew

factory

without

borrowing,

would

an

increase

ininterest

rates

still

affect

In ’s

decision

about

w