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BEC导语:备战BEC对市场而言,降息犹如毒品。它们能让人兴奋,但也能导致依赖。就像瘾君子一样,市场需要越来越大的剂量,才能到达同样的效果。Forthemarkets,ratecutsarelikeadrug.Theycaninspireeuphoria,butcanalsoinducedependency.Markets,likeaddicts,needbiggerandbiggerdosestogetthesameeffect.(Fed9501025萌:美国股市下跌,信贷再次紧缩。Thishasframedthemarket’sprognosisfortheFederalReserve,whichtodaymeetstodecideonmoarypolicy.Whenitcutby50basispointsinSeptember,itsparkedahugerally.Butcuttingbyonly25bpinOctoberpromptedarelapse,asUSstocksfellandcredittightenedoncemore.由于美联储官员成认流动性紧缩有所加剧,交易员猜想会出现50的上涨。不过,这种猜想正在渐渐降温:期货价格显示市场预计降2550WithFedgovernorsadmittingthattheliquiditysqueezehadintensifiedandtradersbettingonarecession,marketsdecidedthatanother50bpcutmustbeforthing.Thatsparkedthelatestrally.Butthatspeculationisdimming:futuresarepricingacutof25bpnot50bp.为什么呢?各国央行上周听起来还很强硬。英国央行(BankofEngland)降低了利率,但发出了通胀警告。按兵不动的欧洲央行(EuropeanCentralBank)听起来更像要加息,而不是降息。Why?Centralbankssoundedhawkishlastweek.TheBankofEnglandcutthebankratebutwarnedoninflation,andtheEuropeanCentralBank,whichwasonhold,soundedclosertoraisingratesthancuttingthem.然而,最重要的是就业数据。美联储受命实现完全就业,因此,糟糕的就业数据可以为大幅降息提供很好的借口。Mostimportant,however,isemploymentdata.TheFedismandatedtopursuefullemployment,sobadjobsnumbersprovidegreatcoverforabigratecut.9.48就业增速还略有上扬。LastFriday’snon-farmpayrollsdidnotprovideit.Thenumberemployedroseby94,000,paredwithforecasts80,000.Thisdatarefusestoslipintorecessionterritory.Thehouseholdsurvey,piledbypollinghouseholdsratherthanpanies,evenshowsjobsgrowthpickingupslightly.CantheFedrestitsdiagnosisonthisdata?Firmstrackingthemoneypanieswithholdfortaxpurposeswarnthatjobgrowthseemstohavestopped.不过,美联储并不想在市场上诱导“瘾君子文化”,也不想表现出自己害怕经济。看起来,美联储最可能开具的药方是:联邦基25的较高的贴现率。ButtheFeddoesnotwanttoinduceadependencycultureinthemarkets,anditdoesnotwanttosignalitisscaredofarecession.A25bpcutintheFedFundsrate,possiblywithasteepercuttothehigherdiscountrate,atwhichitlendstobanks,looksthemostlikelyprescription.Justbecausee-mailisaneverydaypartoflifeintheofficedoesn'tmeanit'ssomethingyoudon'thavetothinkcarefullyabout.Sendingorreceivingill-conceivedorimproperemailviayourworkaountcanleadtoeverythingfromembarrassmenttodisciplinaryaction.Orboth.ConsiderthecaseofoneLondoncouple,whichlastyearhadtheirprivateemailcorrespondenceforwardedaroundtheworldaftertheyoungmaninvolvedforwardedasexuallyrevealingemailfromtheyoungwomantosomepalsatwork.Inadditiontotheresultingignominybothsuffered,theyoungmaninvolvedbecamethesubjectofaninvestigationbyhislawfirm.Ofcourse,youremailgaffesaremostlikelynotgoingtoturnyouintoagloballaughingstock.Butofficeemail,whenusedimproperly,canundermineyoureffortstogetaheadinyourcareer.Followingaresometipstohelpyouuseemailtoyouradvantageratherthandetriment.Keepitshortandsweet.Emailisnotaformofmunicationthatlendsitselftolongmissives.Ifyoudosendalonge-mail-ifyousendaproductdescriptiontoapotentialclient,forinstance,orifyousendaclarificationofdepartmentalpolicytoyourcolleagues-makesureyougooverthedetailsinpersonaswellasinyouremail,sincerelyingonyouremailtomunicateallthedetailsoftenfails.Anduseparagraphs-readershaveamucheasiertimedecipheringlongeremailsthatimpartinformationindiscreet,readablechunksthaninendless-seemingblocksoftext.Avoiddiscussingsensitiveinformation.Despitetheseemingharmlessnessofemail,itisnotreallyprivate;justasktheLondoncouplementionedabove.It'swaytoosimplefortherecipientofyouremailtoforwardittoothers.Andrememberthatyourpanycanaessanyemailgoingintooroutofyouraount.Rulenumberoneforemailingsensitiveinformation:Assumethatanyemailyousendwillbereadbypeopleotherthanitsintendedrecipients.Anotherreasontoavoidincludingsensitiveinformationine-mailisthatyoumightchangeyourmindaboutwhetheryouwanttoletthatinformationbeknown.MichaelEisner,forinstance,oncesentfinancialinformationaboutDisneytojournalistswithoutrealizingithadnotyetbeenpubliclyreleased.Rulenumbertwoforemailingsensitiveinformation:Thinkbeforeyouhit"send."Knowwhentouseemail,andwhentohaveadiscussioninpersonoroverthephone.Thesedayspeopleliketouseemailforallkindsofpurposesforwhichitisusuallynotideal.Ifyouwanttobrainstorm,ortomanageorcritiqueothers,it'susuallybesttodosoinperson-or,failingthat,overthephone.Thereareanumberofreasonsforthis.Foronething,emaildoesnotmunicateunspokennuancesthewaypersonalmunicationdoes
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