台北大学统计系助理教授美国密西根大学生物统计博士

Biostatistics林建甫C.F.JeffLin,MD.PhD.台北大學統計系助理教授美國密西根大學生物統計博士cflin@.tw.tw/~cflin1/12/20231JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*上課W31:00pm—4:00pmTwohoursdiscussionOnehourLab(1:00pm)orQonehouruiz(3:00pm)Lecture,Exams:W2

9:10am–12:00noonClassroom:商學大樓7F02Textbook:Rosner(2006),FundamentalsofBiostatistics(withCD-ROM),SixthEdition,Duxbury,ThomsonLearning(台灣歐亞書局).1/12/20232JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*OfficeHours:三峽,W2andW3,8:00am--9:00am(makeappointmentbye-mailfirst)三峽,W3,12:00noon--1:00am台北,W4,4;30pm—6:00pm統計系課業輔導時間:W1-W5,4:00pm-6:00pm助教王譚景focus000713@.tw呂憶潔

pure.lu@1/12/20233JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*上課使用統計軟體RExcellent,powerfulandFREEstatisticalsoftware/自行下載安裝1/12/20234JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Evaluation:Attendance,Discussion,

Quiz,Homework:30%Mid-termExam40%FinalExam(project)40%(cumulative)依上課進度與情況,調整比例

1/12/20235JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*上課講義上課投影片上網下載,自行影印每週課前預習閱課本1-2小時,每週課後閱讀或作業約4小時,上課專心聽講,參與討論Reading(notstudyingnormemorizing)isveryimportant.1/12/20236JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*考試規則遵照學校考試規則考試可使用鉛筆作答考試openbook考試不可討論與抄襲任何一次考試作弊者,學期成績總分零分1/12/20237JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Statistician’sImageDull,dry,humorlessSpeaksintechnicaljargonthatnooneunderstandsWearsthickglassesandcarriesacalculatorinthepocketInflexible(…alwayssays“Youcan’tdothat!”)1/12/20238JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Statistician’sImageSpendsSaturdaynightsinthelibraryFavoriteMovie:RevengeoftheNerdsDoesn’tplaygolfAnecessaryevilSMART!1/12/20239JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Bio-Statistics

=“Bio-Sadistics”1/12/202310JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*“Astatisticianisapersonthatisgoodwithnumbersbutthatlacksthepersonalitytobecomeanaccountant.”“Theoppositesexignoresusbecauseweareboring.”Statistician’sImage1/12/202311JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*ChallengesStatisticalideascanbedifficultandintimidatingThus:statisticalresultsareoften“skipped-over”whenreadingscientificliteratureDataisoftenmis-interpreted1/12/202312JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Mis-InterpretationofData“Celebratingbirthdaysishealthy.Statisticsshowthatthosethatcelebratethemostbirthdays,livethelongest.”1/12/202313JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Mis-InterpretationofData“Onaverage,myclassisdoingwell.Halfofmystudentsthinkthat2+2=3,theotherhalfthinksthat2+2=5.”1/12/202314JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*WhatisStatistics?“(singular)”:thesciencethatdealswiththecollection,classification,analysis,andinterpretationofnumericalfactsordata,andthat,byuseofmathematicaltheoriesofprobability,imposesorderandregularityonaggregatesofmoreorlessdisparateelements.Thisincludesdesignissuesaswell.“(plural)”:thenumericalfactsordatathemselves. (Webster’sDictionary)Statisticsisaboutcommonsenseandgooddesign! (CampbellandMachin1983)1/12/202315JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*BiostatisticsStatisticsappliedtobiological(life)problems,including:MedicinePublichealthEcologicalandenvironmentalMuchmorestatisticsthanbiology,howeverbiostatisticiansmustlearnthebiologyalso.1/12/202316JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*WhatDoBiostatisticiansDo?Identifyanddeveloptreatmentsfordiseaseandestimatetheireffects.Identifyriskfactorsfordiseases.Design,monitor,analyze,interpret,andreportresultsofclinicalstudies.Developstatisticalmethodologiestoaddressquestionsarisingfrommedical/publichealthdata.1/12/202317JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*WhyCanitbeInteresting?Combinesrigorsofmathematicswithuncertaintiesoftherealworld.Canmakecontributiontoadvancementofscience,statistics,medicine,andpublichealth.Canstudydiseases/healthproblemsinwhichyoumayhaveaninterest(cancers,HIV,reproductivehealth,…).1/12/202318JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*AChallengeMuchoflifeiscomposedofasystematiccomponent(i.e.,signal)andarandomcomponent(i.e.,errorornoise).Example:Smokingisassociatedwithlungcancer.Yetnoteveryonethatsmokes,getslungcancer,andnoteveryonethatgetslungcancersmokes.Yetweknowthatthereisanassociation(asystematiccomponent)1/12/202319JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*AChallengeOurchallengeistoidentifythesystematiccomponent(separateitfromtherandomcomponent),estimateit,andperhapsmakeinferenceswithit.1/12/202320JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*MedicalStudyProtocolResearchquestionSignificancebackgroundStudydesignStudypopulationandsamplingVariablesandmeasurementsStatisticalissuesEthicalissuesQualitycontrolanddatamanagement1/12/202321JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Defineproblems,Questions,andResearchaimsReviewtheliteratureDevelopahypothesisDesignexperimentsorothertestsCollectandrecorddataAnalyzeandinterpretdataDisseminateresultsStatististicalMethods,MeasurementtoolsandmodelsReviseormodifyProtocolPeerreviewReplicationofresultsPublicunderstandingofresearchScientificimpactofresearchInvestigatingResearchIntegrity(2001)TheRoleofStatisticsintheScientificMethod1/12/202322JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*BiostatisticianBasedontheScientificQuestionStudyDesigntoCollectDataDataAnalysisInterpretationDataandReportingtheResults1/12/202323JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*StudyDesignToanswerthescientificquestionIncludesamplingprocessBiostatisticiansareoftenignoredbyphysiciansinthisstage1/12/202324JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*StatisticalAnalysesDescriptiveStatisticsDescribethesampleInferenceMakeinferencesaboutthepopulationPrimarilyperformedintwoways:HypothesistestingEstimation(moreimportant!!)Prediction1/12/202325JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*HowtoproperlyuseBiostatisticsDevelopanunderlyingquestionofinterestGenerateahypothesisDesignastudyCollectDataAnalyzeDataDescriptivestatisticsStatisticalInference1/12/202326JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*DataPiecesofinformationScalesofScientificMeasurementNominal–unorderedcategoriesOrdinal–orderedcategoriesDiscrete–onlywholenumbersarepossible,orderandmagnitudemattersContinuous–anyvalueisconceivableScalesofStatisticalVariableRelatedtoDistributionsContinuousDiscrete1/12/202327JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*MisuseofstatisticsAbout25%ofbiologicalresearchisflawedbecauseofincorrectconclusionsdrawnfromconfoundedexperimentaldesignsandmisuseofstatisticalmethods1/12/202328JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*DataThevastmajorityoferrorsinresearcharisefromapoorplanning(e.g.,datacollection)Fancystatisticalmethodscannotrescuegarbagedata.Collectexactvalueswheneverpossible.1/12/202329JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*TopTenReasonstobeaStatistician

Estimatingparametersiseasierthandealingwithreallife.StatisticiansaresignificantIalwayswantedtolearntheentireGreekalphabet.Theprobabilityastatisticianmajorwillgetajobis>.9999.IfIflunkoutIcanalwaystransfertoEngineering.Wedoitwithconfidence,frequency,andvariability.Youneverhavetoberight-onlyclose.We'renormalandeveryoneelseisskewed.Theregressionlinelooksbetterthantheunemploymentline.Nooneknowswhatwedosowearealwaysright./projoke48.htm1/12/202330JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*上課學習日常生活使用統計vs.準備研究所考試學校正式上課vs.補習班上課台灣式上課vs.歐美式上課1/12/202331JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*StatisticsisanArtWhetheryouapplystatisticstobiologicalorotherprocesses,itistheartofdecisionmakinginthefaceofuncertainty.1/12/202332JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*HowmuchmedicalknowledgedoIneedtoknowbeforedoingmedicalresearch?Themorethebetter!!Youneedtoknowsomebasicmedicallanguagetotalktophhysicianss(sameasphysicians)andlearnfromworking.Buteachofushavelimitedenergyandcannotknoweverything!!(Isittrue?)1/12/202333JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*Q:

Isitharderforamathematiciantolearnmedicineorforaphysiciantolearnmathematics?WhatistherightkindofmathematicstolearnifI'minterestedinapplicationstomedicine?A:IfIhadonepieceofadvicetogivetoyoungpeopleinterestedininterdisciplinarywork,itwouldbethis:“Youdon'thavetoknoweverything.”1/12/202334JeffLin,MD.PhD.

*ReasontobeaBiostatisticianBrainIncome↑

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