曼昆经济学原理30

MoneyGrowthandInflation

货币增长与通货膨胀Chapter30TheMeaningofMoney

货币的含义Moneyisthesetofassetsinaneconomythatpeopleregularlyusetobuygoodsandservicesfromotherpeople.

货币是经济中人们经常用来向其他人购买物品与劳务的资产。THECLASSICALTHEORYOFINFLATION

古典通货膨胀理论Inflationisanincreaseintheoveralllevelofprices.

通货膨胀是总体物价水平的上升。Hyperinflationisanextraordinarilyhighrateofinflation.

超速通货膨胀是极高的通货膨胀率。THECLASSICALTHEORYOFINFLATIONInflation:HistoricalAspectsOverthepast60years,priceshaverisenonaverageabout5percentperyear.Deflation,meaningdecreasingaverageprices,occurredintheU.S.inthenineteenthcentury.HyperinflationreferstohighratesofinflationsuchasGermanyexperiencedinthe1920s.古典通货膨胀理论通货膨胀:历史的角度在过去的60年间，物价平均每年上升5％左右。通货紧缩——平均物价水平的降低，在19世纪的美国发生过这种情况。超速通货膨胀——极高的通货膨胀率，20世纪20年代德国发生过这种情况。Inflation:HistoricalAspects

通货膨胀:历史的角度Inthe1970spricesroseby7percentperyear.

在20世纪70年代，物价每年上升7％。Duringthe1990s,pricesroseatanaveragerateof2percentperyear.

在20世纪90年代，物价平均每年上升2％。TheClassicalTheoryofInflationThequantitytheoryofmoneyisusedtoexplainthelong-rundeterminantsofthepricelevelandtheinflationrate.Inflationisaneconomy-widephenomenonthatconcernsthevalueoftheeconomy’smediumofexchange.Whentheoverallpricelevelrises,thevalueofmoneyfalls.古典通货膨胀理论货币数量论被用来解释物价水平和通货膨胀率的长期决定因素。通货膨胀是一种广泛的经济现象，它涉及到的是经济中交换媒介的价值。当总体物价水平上升时，货币的价值降低。MoneySupply,MoneyDemand,andMonetaryEquilibriumThemoneysupply

isapolicyvariablethatiscontrolledbytheFed.Throughinstrumentssuchasopen-marketoperations,theFeddirectlycontrolsthequantityofmoneysupplied.货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡货币供给量是美联储控制的政策变量。通过比如公开市场活动等手段，美联储直接控制货币的供给量。MoneySupply,MoneyDemand,andMonetaryEquilibrium

货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡Moneydemandhasseveraldeterminants,includinginterestratesandtheaveragelevelofpricesintheeconomy.货币需求有几个决定因素，包括利率和经济中的平均物价水平。Peopleholdmoneybecauseitisthemediumofexchange.

人们持有货币是因为它是交换媒介。Theamountofmoneypeoplechoosetoholddependsonthepricesofgoodsandservices.

人们选择持有的货币量决定于物品与劳务的价格。MoneySupply,MoneyDemand,andMonetaryEquilibrium

货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡MoneySupply,MoneyDemand,andMonetaryEquilibrium

货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡Inthelongrun,theoveralllevelofpricesadjuststothelevelatwhichthedemandformoneyequalsthesupply.在长期中，物价总水平调整到货币需求等于供给的水平。Figure1MoneySupply,MoneyDemand,andtheEquilibriumPriceLevelQuantityofMoneyValueofMoney,1/PPriceLevel,PQuantityfixedbytheFedMoneysupply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324EquilibriumvalueofmoneyEquilibriumpricelevelMoneydemandA美联储固定的货币量货币量货币价值(1/P)物价水平(P)A货币供给01(低)(高)(高)(低)1/21/43/411.3324货币需求图1.货币供给、货币需求与均衡的物价水平均衡的货币价值均衡的物价水平Figure2TheEffectsofMonetaryInjectionQuantityofMoneyValueofMoney,1/PPriceLevel,PMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M2MS22....decreasesthevalueofmoney...3....andincreasesthepricelevel.1.Anincreaseinthemoneysupply...AB货币量货币价值(1/P)物价水平(P)AMS101(低)(高)(高)(低)1/21/43/411.3324货币需求图2.货币供给增加的效果M1MS2货币供给增加...2.…货币价值下降3.…以及物价水平上升M2BTheQuantityTheoryofMoneyHowthepricelevelisdeterminedandwhyitmightchangeovertimeiscalledthequantitytheoryofmoney.Thequantityofmoneyavailableintheeconomydeterminesthevalueofmoney.Theprimarycauseofinflationisthegrowthinthequantityofmoney.货币数量论对物价水平如何决定以及为什么它一直在变的解释被称为货币数量论。经济中所得到的货币量决定了货币的价值。货币量增长是通货膨胀的主要原因。TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutrality

古典二分法与货币中性Nominalvariablesarevariablesmeasuredinmonetaryunits.

名义变量——按货币单位衡量的变量。Realvariablesarevariablesmeasuredinphysicalunits.

实际变量——按实物单位衡量的变量。TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutralityAccordingtoHumeandothers,realeconomicvariablesdonotchangewithchangesinthemoneysupply.Accordingtotheclassicaldichotomy,differentforcesinfluencerealandnominalvariables.Changesinthemoneysupplyaffectnominalvariablesbutnotrealvariables.古典二分法与货币中性根据休谟和其他学者的观点，实际经济变量不随着货币供給量的变化而变化。根据古典二分法，影响实际变量和名义变量的力量是不同的。货币供给变动影响名义变量而不影响实际变量。TheClassicalDichotomyandMonetaryNeutrality

古典二分法与货币中性Theirrelevanceofmonetarychangesforrealvariablesiscalledmonetaryneutrality.货币中性——认为货币变动并不影响实际变量的观点。VelocityandtheQuantityEquation

货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式Thevelocityofmoneyreferstothespeedatwhichthetypicaldollarbilltravelsaroundtheeconomyfromwallettowallet.货币流通速度——在经济中普通一美元从钱包到钱包之间流动的速度。VelocityandtheQuantityEquation

货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式V=(PxY)/M

Where等式中：

V=velocity货币流通速度P

=thepricelevel价格水平Y=thequantityofoutput产量M=thequantityofmoney货币数量VelocityandtheQuantityEquation

货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式Rewritingtheequationgivesthequantityequation:

重新整理，得到货币数量论方程式MxV=PxYVelocityandtheQuantityEquation

货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式Thequantityequationrelatesthequantityofmoney(M)tothenominalvalueofoutput(PxY).货币数量论方程式把货币数量（

M

）与产量的名义价值(PxY)联系起来了。VelocityandtheQuantityEquationThequantityequationshowsthatanincreaseinthequantityofmoneyinaneconomymustbereflectedinoneofthreeothervariables:thepricelevelmustrise,thequantityofoutputmustrise,orthevelocityofmoneymustfall.货币流通速度与货币数量论方程式货币数量论方程式说明，经济中货币量的增加必然反映在其他三个变量中的一个上:物价水平必然上升,产量必然上升,货币流通速度必然下降。Figure3NominalGDP,theQuantityofMoney,andtheVelocityofMoneyIndexes(1960=100)2,0001,00050001,500196019651970197519801985199019952000NominalGDPVelocityM2图3.名义GDP、货币量与货币流通速度指数(1960=100)2,0001,00050001,500196019651970197519801985199019952000名义GDP速度M2TheEquilibriumPriceLevel,InflationRate,andtheQuantityTheoryofMoney

Thevelocityofmoneyisrelativelystableovertime.WhentheFedchangesthequantityofmoney,itcausesproportionatechangesinthenominalvalueofoutput(PxY).Becausemoneyisneutral,moneydoesnotaffectoutput.均衡物价水平、通货膨胀率与货币数量论货币流通速度一直是较为稳定的。当美联储改变货币量时，它就引起名义产量价值(PxY)同比例变动。因为货币是中性的，货币并不影响产量。TheEquilibriumPriceLevel,InflationRate,andtheQuantityTheoryofMoneyWhentheFedaltersthemoneysupplyandinducesparallelchangesinthenominalvalueofoutput,thesechangesarealsoreflectedinchangesinthepricelevel.WhentheFedincreasesthemoneysupplyrapidly,theresultisahighrateofinflation.均衡物价水平、通货膨胀率与货币数量论当美联储改变货币供给并引起名义产量价值相应变动时，这些变动反映在物价水平的变动上。当美联储迅速增加货币供给时，结果是高通货膨胀率。CASESTUDY:MoneyandPricesduringFourHyperinflationsHyperinflationisinflationthatexceeds50percentpermonth.Hyperinflationoccursinsomecountriesbecausethegovernmentprintstoomuchmoneytopayforitsspending.案例研究：四次超速通货膨胀期间的货币与物价超速通货膨胀一般定义为每月通货膨胀率在50％以上。在一些国家之所以发生超速通货膨胀是因为政府印制了太多货币，为政府支出买单。Figure4MoneyandPricesDuringFourHyperinflations(a)Austria(b)HungaryMoneysupplyPricelevelIndex(Jan.1921=100)Index(July1921=100)Pricelevel100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921Moneysupply100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921图4.超速通货膨胀时期的货币与物价(b)匈牙利货币供给19251924192319221921物价水平100,00010,0001,000100指数(1921.1=100)(a)奥地利19251924192319221921100,00010,0001,000100指数(1921.1=100)物价水平货币供给Figure4MoneyandPricesDuringFourHyperinflations(c)Germany1Index(Jan.1921=100)(d)Poland100,000,000,000,0001,000,00010,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000100,000,00010,000100MoneysupplyPricelevel19251924192319221921PricelevelMoneysupplyIndex(Jan.1921=100)10010,000,000100,0001,000,00010,0001,00019251924192319221921图4.超速通货膨胀时期的货币与物价c)德国11000万亿1百万100亿1万亿1亿1万10019251924192319221921物价水平货币供给

d)波兰货币供给物价水平10010百万10万1百万1万1,00019251924192319221921指数(1921.1=100)指数(1921.1=100)InflationTaxWhenthegovernmentraisesrevenuebyprintingmoney,itissaidtolevyaninflationtax.Aninflationtaxislikeataxoneveryonewhoholdsmoney.Theinflationendswhenthegovernmentinstitutesfiscalreformssuchascutsingovernmentspending.通货膨胀税当政府通过印制货币筹集收入时，可以说是征收一种通货膨胀税。通货膨胀税向每一个持有货币的人征税。当政府从制度上进行消除通货膨胀税所需要的财政改革时，通货膨胀就结束了。TheFisherEffectTheFishereffect

referstoaone-to-oneadjustmentofthenominalinterestratetotheinflationrate.AccordingtotheFishereffect,whentherateofinflationrises,thenominalinterestraterisesbythesameamount.Therealinterestratestaysthesame.费雪效应费雪效应——名义利率对通货膨胀率一对一的调整。根据费雪效应,当通货膨胀率上升时，名义利率上升同样的量。实际利率保持不变。Figure5TheNominalInterestRateandtheInflationRatePercent(peryear)19601965197019751980198519901995200003691215InflationNominalinterestrate图5.名义利率与通货膨胀率百分比（每年）19601965197019751980198519901995200003691215通货膨胀名义利率THECOSTSOFINFLATION

通货膨胀的代价AFallinPurchasingPower?

购买力下降？Inflationdoesnotinitselfreducepeople’srealpurchasingpower.

通货膨胀本身并没有降低人们的实际购买力。TheCostsofInflation通货膨胀的代价Shoeleathercosts皮鞋成本Menucosts菜单成本Relativepricevariability相对价格变动Taxdistortions税收扭曲Confusionandinconvenience

混乱与不方便Arbitraryredistributionofwealth

任意的财富再分配ShoeleatherCostsShoeleathercostsaretheresourceswastedwheninflationencouragespeopletoreducetheirmoneyholdings.Inflationreducestherealvalueofmoney,sopeoplehaveanincentivetominimizetheircashholdings.皮鞋成本皮鞋成本——当通货膨胀鼓励人们减少货币持有量时所浪费的资源。通货膨胀降低了货币的实际价值，所以通货膨胀激励人们持有最少量的现金。

ShoeleatherCostsLesscashrequiresmorefrequenttripstothebanktowithdrawmoneyfrominterest-bearingaccounts.Theactualcostofreducingyourmoneyholdingsisthetimeandconvenienceyoumustsacrificetokeeplessmoneyonhand.Also,extratripstothebanktaketimeawayfromproductiveactivities.皮鞋成本持有更少的现金需要更经常地去银行，从有利息的储蓄帐户上提取现金。减少货币持有量的实际成本是人们为了减少手中货币持有量而必需牺牲的时间与方便。而且，过度频繁地去银行占用了本来用于生产性活动的时间。MenuCostsMenucostsarethecostsofadjustingprices.Duringinflationarytimes,itisnecessarytoupdatepricelistsandotherpostedprices.Thisisaresource-consumingprocessthattakesawayfromotherproductiveactivities.菜单成本菜单成本——改变价格的成本。在通货膨胀期间，必需更新价格表和其他邮寄的价格单。改变价格是一个消耗资源的过程，占用了生产性活动的资源。Relative-PriceVariabilityandtheMisallocationofResources

相对价格变动与资源配置失误Inflationdistortsrelativeprices.

通货膨胀扭曲了相对价格。Consumerdecisionsaredistorted,andmarketsarelessabletoallocateresourcestotheirbestuse.

消费者的决策被扭曲了，市场也就不能把资源配置到其最好的用处中。Inflation-InducedTaxDistortion

通货膨胀引起的税收扭曲Inflationexaggeratesthesizeofcapitalgainsandincreasesthetaxburdenonthistypeofincome.

通货膨胀扩大了资本收益规模，无形中增加了这种收入的税收负担。Withprogressivetaxation,capitalgainsaretaxedmoreheavily.

在累进税率制下，资本收益的税收负担更加沉重。Inflation-InducedTaxDistortionTheincometaxtreatsthenominalinterestearnedonsavingsasincome,eventhoughpartofthenominalinterestratemerelycompensatesforinflation.Theafter-taxrealinterestratefalls, makingsavinglessattractive.通货膨胀引起的税收扭曲所得税把名义利率当作储蓄所赚到的收入，即使名义利率的一部分只是补偿通货膨胀。

税后的真实利率降低了，降低了储蓄的吸引力。Table1HowInflationRaisestheTaxBurdenonSavingCopyright©2004South-Western表1.通货膨胀如何提高了储蓄的税收负担经济1(物价稳定)经济2(通货膨胀)实际利率4%4%通货膨胀率08名义利率(实际利率

+通货膨胀率)41225%税收引起的利率减少

(.25x名义利率)13税收名义利率

(.75x名义利率)39税后实际利率(税后名义利率－通货膨胀率)31ConfusionandInconvenienceWhentheFedincreasesthemoneysupplyandcreatesinflation,iterodestherealvalueoftheunitofaccount.Inflationcausesdollarsatdifferenttimestohavedifferentrealvalues.Therefore,withrisingprices,itismoredifficulttocomparerealrevenues,costs,andprofitsovertime.混乱与不方便当美联储提高货币供給量并引起通货膨胀时，它就侵蚀了计价单位的实际价值。通货膨胀造成不同时期的美元具有不同的价值。因此，当价格上升时，更难比较企业不同时期的真实收益、成本和利润。ASpecialCostofUnexpectedInflation:ArbitraryRedistributionofWealthUnexpectedinflationredistributeswealthamongthepopulationinawaythathasnothingtodowitheithermeritorneed.Theseredistributionsoccurbecausemanyloansintheeconomyarespecifiedintermsoftheunitofaccount–money.未预期到的通货膨胀的特殊成本：

任意的财富再分配未预期到的通货膨胀以一种既与才能无关又与需要无关的方式在人们中重新分配财富。这种再分配之所以发生是因为经济中许多贷款是按计价单位——货币来规定条款的。SummaryTheoveralllevel