时间数列分析

时间数列分析BenefitsandUsesofTimeSeriesBenefitsoftimeseriesMonitorsalesperformanceovertime…removevariationinmonthlysalescausedbycalendardifferencesandseasonalitythatcanconcealpotentialproblemswithsalesAccuratelydeterminethedirectionandrateofgrowth/declineinsalesQuicklyidentifychangesinsalestrendsandcorrelatethemtofactorsaffectingsales…industry,company,competitionImprovedecisionmakingregardingsalesandmarketingactionsUsesoftimeseriesAssesscurrentsalesperformanceandevaluatetheeffectivenessofsalesprogramsDetermineunderlyingsalestrendandprojectyearendsalesEstablishappropriatebudgetsfornextyearandestimatemonthlybudgetspreadsTimeseriesanalysisistheprimarysalesanalysistechniqueatA-B2023/1/162TimeSeriesAnalysisWhatisTimeSeriesAnalysis?HowareTimeSeriesplotsdeveloped?WhataretheadvantagesofTimeSeriesAnalysis?WhatareTimeSeriesusedfor?2023/1/163WhatisTimeSeriesAnalysis?Timeseriesanalysisisastatisticaltechniqueusedtoanalyzeandmonitorsalesvolumeovertime.2023/1/164WhyTimeSeries?BeersalesarehighlyseasonalItisverydifficulttoevaluatemonthlysalesovertime.2023/1/165Howdotimeserieswork?MonthlyvariationinsalesiscausedbytwomajorfactorsSeasonalitySellingDays(calendareffects)TimeSeriestechniquestatisticallyremovestheeffectsofthesetwofactorsTimeSeriestechniqueusestheX-11procedureforseasonaladjustmentsTheX-11procedurewasdevelopedbytheU.S.BureauofCensusinthe1950’s.ItwasbroughttoA-Bintheearly1960’sandhasbecomethestandardforreportingsales.2023/1/166Howdotimeseriesadjustsales?AsellingdayadjustmentfactorforeachmonthiscomputedandappliedtotherawsalesThisfactorallowsyoutocomparemonthsasiftheyhadthesamenumberofsellingdays…e.g.accuratelycomparetheJunethisyearvs.JunelastyearAseasonalfactoriscomputedandappliedtothesellingdayadjustedsalesThisfactor,whenapplied,givesyoumonthlydatadirectlycomparabletoanyothermonth…e.g.accuratelycompareJunethisyearwithMaythisyear2023/1/167SellingDaysAllotherthingsbeingequal,salesinAug-03woulddecrease4.8%becauseofonelesssellingday.InordertocomparethetwomonthsAug-03saleswillhavetobeadjustedup+4.8%.2023/1/168SeasonalitySeasonalityisexpressedasanindexforamonthcomparedtoanaveragemonth.Amonthwheresaleswere20%higherthanaveragewouldhaveaseasonalfactorof120.Amonthwhichwas10%lowerthanaveragewouldhaveaseasonalfactorof90.StrongSeasonalityNoSeasonality2023/1/169AdjustingSalesRawSalesXSellingDayFactor÷SeasonalFactorSeasonallyAdjustedSales=2023/1/1610Howdotimeserieswork?RawSalesSellingDayAdjustedSeasonallyAdjusted2023/1/1611DissectingaTimeSeriesPlotAnnualizedSales…tellsushowbigthemarketis.TrendLine…tellsusthedirectionofsalesbasedonpast&presentperformanceIrregularvariations…showsustheimpactofmarketplaceactionsSTR’s;OntarioSTC’sDataDescription…tellsusthetypeofdataplotted2023/1/1612AdvantagesofTimeSeriesAdvantagesoftimeseries:RemovesvariationinmonthlysalescausedbycalendardifferencesandseasonalityHelpustoaccuratelyestimatethedirectionandrateofsalesgrowth/declineTheyareanimprovementoverothermethodssuchasyear-over-yeargrowthormovingaveragesbecausetheyshowuswhatishappeningsooner…anearlywarningofchangingsalesconditionsTimeseriessignificantlyimprovedecisionmaking…AllowsustotakecorrectiveactionsoonerAllowsustotaketherightcorrectiveactionHelpstoestablishappropriatesalesobjectives2023/1/1613AdvantagesofTimeSeriesIfthetimeseriesshowsarelativesmoothpatternfromoneyeartothenext…thetrendandtheyearoveryeargrowthwouldprovideroughlythesamereading.But,iftherewasasignificantmarketeventorchange,theyearoveryeartrendswillbemisleading+50%2023/1/1614MisleadingGrowthRates0%+21%2023/1/1615MoreMisleadingGrowthRates-21%+15%2023/1/1616Whataretimeseriesusedfor?AtA-Bweusetimeseriesto…AssesscurrentsalesperformanceDevelopcurrentyearsalesprojections…PYE(projectedyear-end)Forecastnextyearsales…developbudgetsandmonthlyspreadsOtherquantitativesalesanalysis2023/1/1617AssessingSalesPerformanceHowisourYTDperformance?2023/1/1618AssessingSalesPerformance2023/1/1619EstimatingPYEIfthereisnochangeinthebusinessenvironmentsaleswillcontinueoncurrenttrend.Pointsoffthetrendlinecanbeusedtoestimatemonthlysales.UnderlyingTrendPredicted{2023/1/1620UnderlyingTrendUnderlyingtrendisatrendlinethatbestdescribesthecurrentsalesgrowthrate.Itisthecollectiverepresentationofallunderlyingfactorsthatareinfluencingsales…industry,competition,andcompanyspecific,etc.Itisdeterminedusingabest-fitlinetoasetofpointsonthetimeseries.Thepointsareselectedbasedonin-depthunderstandingoftheunderlyingfactorsinfluencingsales,howtheyhavechangedovertime,andhowtheywilllikelychangeinthefuture.Pointsofinflectiononthetimeseriesoftensignalchangesintheunderlyingfactorsandhencetheunderlyingtrend.2023/1/1621EstimatingPYEPredicted{ActualSales{Predicted{SeasonallyAdj.Sales÷SellingDayFactorXSeasonalFactorMonthlySales=2023/1/1622EstablishingBudgetsandSpreadsGivenourYTDSep-2003performancewhatwouldbeanappropriatebudgetfornextyearandhowshouldthatvolumebespreadbymonth?2023/1/1623EstablishingBudgetsandSpreads2023/1/1624AnotherExleUsingTimeSeriesAnnualizedSTR'sinMBBLS199819992000200120022003ElasticityCalculationP1:18.99;P2:20.45i.e.+7%V1:44.5;V2:38.5i.e.-14%Elasticity=-2.0EstimatingthepriceelasticityPrice=P1Volume=V1Price=P2Volume=V22023/1/1625ConclusionsTimeSeriestechniqueisaveryus