ac管理者不太可能将某些事情作为问题

Chapter06DECISIONMAKING:THEESSENCEOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB6-11LearningObjectivesYoushouldlearnto:1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess2,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations3,Describetherationaldecisionmaker4,Contrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedrationalapproachestodecisionmaking5,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocess6-22LearningObjectives(cont.)Youshouldlearnto:6,Identifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem7,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertainty8,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstyles6-33DecisionschoicesfromtwoormorealternativesallorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsDecision-MakingProcessacomprehensive,8-stepprocessStep1-IdentifyingaProblemproblem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairsmustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoactmanagerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasnecessaryresourcestoact管理者不太可能将某些事情作为问题，如果他们不具有采取行动的必要资源1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess6-44TheDecision-MakingProcessProblemIdentification“Mysalespeopleneednewcomputers”IdentificationofDecisionCriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreentypeReliabilityScreensizeAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaReliability10Screensize8Warranty5Weight5Price4Screentype3DevelopmentofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaImplementationofanAlternativeGatewayEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelectionofanAlternativeAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba6-5©PrenticeHall,20025Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteriadecisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecisionStep3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriamustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecisionStep4-DevelopingAlternativeslisttheviable可行的alternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthemStep5-AnalyzingAlternativeseachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaDecisionMaking(cont.)6-66

AssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteria

6-77EvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeights6-88DecisionMaking(cont.)Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step6-SelectinganAlternativechoosingthebestalternativefromamongthoseconsideredStep7-ImplementingtheAlternativeimplementation-conveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedbyitandgettingtheircommitmenttoitparticipationindecision-makingprocessinclinespeopletosupportthedecisiondecisionmayfailifitisnotimplementedproperlyStep8-EvaluatingDecisionEffectivenessdeterminewhethertheproblemisresolved6-992,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations6-10103,DescribetherationaldecisionmakinglRationalDecisionMakingdecisionsareconsistent前后后一一致致的的,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraintsmanagersassumedtomakerationaldecisionsAssumptionsofRationality-decisionmakerwould:beobjectiveandlogicalcarefullydefineaproblemhaveaclearandspecificgoalselectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoalmakedecisioninthefirm’sbesteconomicinterestsmanagerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests6-1111AssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblemisclearandunambiguousSingle,well-definedgoalistobeachievedAllalternativesandconsequencesareknownPreferencesareclearPreferences偏好areconstantandstableNotimeorcostconstraintsexistFinalchoicewillmaximizepayoff6-12124,ContrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedlyrationalapproachestodecisionmakingBoundedRationalitybehaverationallywithintheparameters参数ofasimplifieddecision-makingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’’sabilitytoprocessinformationsatisfice满意-acceptsolutionsthatare““goodenough””IsacommonerrorcommittedintheDMprocess?escalationofcommitment-increasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrongrefusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed6-13135,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocessRoleofIntuitionintuitivedecisionmaking-subconsciousprocessofmakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperienceandaccumulatedjudgmentdoesnotrelyonasystematicorthoroughanalysisoftheproblemgenerallycomplementsarationalanalysis6-1414WhatIsIntuition?DecisionsbasedonexperienceDecisionsbasedonfeelingsandemotionsDecisionsbasedonethicalvaluesorcultureDecisionsbasedonsubconsciousdataDecisionsbasedonskills,knowledge,ortrainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-baseddecisionsValuesorethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive认知的的-baseddecisions6-15156,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedProgrammedDecisions-usedtoaddressstructuredproblemsminimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretionfacilitateorganizationalefficiencyprocedure-seriesofinterrelatedsequentialsteps顺序的步骤骤usedtorespondtoastructuredproblemrule-explicit清楚的statementofwhattodoornottodopolicy-guidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking6-16166,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisions(cont.)Poorly-StructuredProblems-new,unusualproblemsforwhichinformationisambiguousorincompleteNonprogrammedDecisions-usedtoaddresspoorly-structuredproblemsproduceacustom-maderesponsemorefrequentamonghigher-levelmanagersfewdecisionsintherealworldareeitherfullyprogrammedornonprogrammed6-1717TypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredTypeofProblem6-18187,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertaintyDecision-MakingConditionsCertainty-outcomeofeveryalternativeisknownidealisticratherthanrealisticRisk-abletoestimatetheprobabilityofoutcomesstemmingfromeachalternativeexpectedvalue-theconditionalreturnfromeachpossibleoutcomemultiplyexpectedrevenuefromeachoutcomebytheprobabilityofeachoutcome6-1919ExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLift6-2020DecisionTreesDecisionpointOutcomepointBranchofsolutionprobabilityValueoflossandprofitExpectedValue=Valueoflossandprofit*probability21exampleP125Rent20,000sq.ftRent12,000sq.ftstrong0·70weak0·30strong0·70weak0·30$320,000$50,000$240,000$130,000Expectedvalue320*0··70+50*0··30=239Expectedvalue240*0·70+130*0·30=20722例:某公司计划划开发一种种新产品,设计了豪豪华型和普普及型两个个型号:个型号:豪华型:成功盈利800万元元，成功的的概率为60%,失败亏损300万元元.失败败的概率为为40%;普及型:成功盈利600万元元.成功功的概率为为70%.失败亏损30万元元.失败败的概率为为30%。。23决策方案自自然状态态及概率支支付值期期望值值豪华型普及型成功0·60失败0·40成功0·70失败0·30800-300600-30800*0·60+（-300）*0·40=360600*0·70+（-30）*0·30=41124Decision-MakingConditions(cont.)Uncertainty-notcertainaboutoutcomesandunabletoestimateprobabilitiespsychologicalorientationofdecisionmakermaximaxchoice-optimisticmaximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff最大最大选选择maximinchoice-pessimisticmaximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff最大最小选选择minimax-minimizethemaximum“regret”最小化其最最大遗憾6-2525PayoffMatrix收益矩阵6-2626RegretMatrix(遗憾矩阵)6-27278,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstylesDecision-MakingStyles决策风格twodimensionsdefinetheapproachtodecisionmakingwayofthinking-differsfromrationaltointuitivetoleranceforambiguity模糊承受力-ahighneedforconsistencyandorderinmakingdecisionsothatambiguityisminimized.definefourdecision-makingstylesDirective-fast,efficient,andlogicalAnalytic-carefulandabletoadaptorcopewithnewsituationsConceptual-abletofindcreativesolutionsBehavioral-seekacceptanceofdecisions6-2828Decision-MakingStylesAnalyticDirectiveBehavioralRationalIntuitiveWayofThinkingConceptualHighLowToleranceforAmbiguity6-2929Wha