世界银行-气候与发展：行动议程-世界银行集团2021至2022年国家气候与发展报告的新见解

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

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Coverdesign:BradAmburn

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

1.Contents

Foreword

4

Summary 6

1.CountryClimateandDevelopmentReports:integratingclimatechangeanddevelopment 7

2.Climatechangeposesamajorthreattolong-termdevelopmentobjectives 10

2.1.Climatechangehaswidespread,deep,andcascadingeffectsacrossmostsectors 10

2.2.Boostingresilienceandadaptationisanurgentandintegralpartofdevelopmentandpovertyreduction,

especiallyinlow-incomecountries 13

2.3.Evenwithadaptation,successfuldevelopmentandpovertyreductionrequireacceleratedmitigationaction,

especiallyfromhigh-incomecountriesandlargeemitters 19

3.Climateobjectivescanbeachievedwithoutcompromisingdevelopment 21

3.1.Structuralchangeandsupportivepolicyenvironmentsareneededforsuccessfulandjustclimateaction 21

3.2.SectoraltransitionswithprivatesectormobilizationcreateopportunitiestoreduceGHGemissionswhile

contributingtodevelopment 22

3.3.MostcountriescanfollowdevelopmentpathwaysthatalignwithajusttransitionandtheParisAgreement

withoutmajortrade-offs 33

4.Successrequiresurgentpolicyreformsandincreasedfinancialsupportfromtheinternational

community 39

4.1.Innovativeclimatefinancesolutionstomeetadditionalinvestmentneeds 39

4.2.Considerthepoliticaleconomyinpolicydesign 45

4.3.Buildinginstitutionalcapacityandimprovinggovernanceanddecisionmaking 46

4.4.Acceleratedinnovationandscalingupkeytechnologiesforadaptationandmitigation 47

4.5.Ajusttransition:preventingandmanagingimpactsonpeopleandcommunities 49

5.Prioritizationandsequencing:arequisiteforsuccess 51

5.1.Prioritizingwhatisgoodfordevelopmentorurgenttoachieveclimategoals 51

5.2.MainrecommendationsintheCCDRs 52

6.Conclusion 55

Acronyms

CBAM

CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism

CCAP

ClimateChangeActionPlan

CCDR

CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport

CPAT

ClimatePolicyAssessmentTool

CSA

climate-smartagriculture

DRM

disasterriskmanagement

EU

EuropeanUnion

EV

electricvehicle

GDP

grossdomesticproduct

GHG

greenhousegas

GRID

Green,Resilient,andInclusiveDevelopment

HIC

high-incomecountry

LIC

low-incomecountry

LMIC

lower-middle-incomecountry

M&E

monitoringandevaluation

MANAGE

(WorldBank’s)Mitigation,Adaptation,andNewTechnologiesAppliedGeneralEquilibrium

MFMod

(WorldBank’s)Macro-FiscalModel

MIC

middle-incomecountry

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContribution

O&M

operationsandmaintenance

SME

smallandmedium-sizedenterprise

SOE

state-ownedenterprise

UMIC

upper-middle-incomecountries

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

AchievingClimateand

DevelopmentGoalsTogether

ForewordbyDavidMalpass

Developingcountriesfaceauniquechallengeofhavingtoachieve

theireconomicdevelopmentgoalsinthecontextofachanging

climate.

Policymakersfacetoughquestions.Howtotranslateshort-andlong-

termclimateimpactsintodecisionstoday?Whatpolicyreformsand

investmentsshouldbeprioritized?Whatarethetrade-offsbetween

immediatebenefitsandcostlierdelays?

Theanswerstothesequestionswillimpacteverysectoroftheir

economiesandsocieties.Moreover,thereisnosinglesolution:the

energytransitioninChinalooksverydifferentfrominChad,andthe

developmentprioritiesofPakistanvarysignificantlyfromthoseofTürkiye.

Allcountriescanbenefitfromasystematicapproachthatcombinesthebestavailabledata,models,andtoolstoprovideimmediateandactionablerecommendationsthatintegrateclimateanddevelopmentgoals.

Thatiswhatourtransformativenewdiagnostic—theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReports—setsouttodo.

ThereportsbuildontheWorldBankGroup’slongandongoingcountryengagementastheworld’sleadingdevelopmentinstitutionandtheleadingproviderofclimatefinancetothedevelopingworld.Eachreportisrootedinitsuniquecountrycontext:fromthecountry’sclimatecommitmentsanddevelopmentprioritiestoitsincomelevelanditssectoraltransitions.Thereportstakeapeople-centricapproach,frompeoplelivinginflood-proneareastoworkersinthecoalindustry,toprotectthepoorestandmostvulnerableandcontributetoajusttransition.Theycapturetheessentialroleoftheprivatesectorinincreasingresilienceandreducingemissions.Theyalsoexaminethe

“Allcountriescanbenefitfromasystematicapproach

thatcombinesthebestavailabledata,models,andtools

toprovideimmediateandactionablerecommendations

thatintegrateclimateanddevelopmentgoals.Thatis

whatourtransformativenewdiagnostic—theCountry

ClimateandDevelopmentReports—setsouttodo.”

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

technologiesandinnovationsneededforlowercarbonintensityproductionofelectricity,steel,cement,andmanufacturing,andhowtheworldwillbuildgreenandefficientsupplychainsforsustainabledevelopment.

Theresultisthateachreportcontainsawealthofinformationonthepathwaysandinvestmentsthatcanhelpeachcountrytoshapealow-carbon,resilientdevelopmentfuture.Thesereportsdonotprovidealltheanswers,buttheyoffernewanalysisandlayoutthechallengesandopportunitiesofclimateanddevelopmentinanintegratedwaythatenablespolicymakerstobetterfindtheanswerstheyneed.

Thefirstbatchofreportsspans24countries:Argentina,Bangladesh,BurkinaFaso,Cameroon,Chad,China,ArabRepublicofEgypt,Ghana,Iraq,Jordan,Kazakhstan,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Morocco,Nepal,Niger,Pakistan,Peru,Philippines,Rwanda,SouthAfrica,Türkiye,andVietnam.EachreportisconductedjointlybytheWorldBankanditsprivatesectorarms,theInternationalFinanceCorporationandtheMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency,andinclosecoordinationwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.Iwanttothankallthosewhohavetakenpartinthisgroundbreakingexercisefortheirinsights,rigor,collaborativespirit,andhardwork.

Thisanalysis,ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction,drawsfromtherichnessoftheindividualcountryreportsandsharessomeearlyinsightswehavegleanedfromthefirstbatch.Theseearlyinsightsarestriking.InCCDRcountries,investinganaverageof1.4%ofGDPinadaptationandmitigationcouldincreasetheirresilienceandreducetheiremissionsbyasmuchas70%by2050.ThetransitioncouldseepositiveimpactsonGDPandemployment,butthesemustbebalancedagainstlossesinfossilfuel-intensivesectorswhichwillimpactsomepopulationsandcommunities.

Thegainsaretheretobereapedbuttheyarenotautomatic:theydependoncarefullydesignedpoliciesaswellasincreasedfinancialsupportfromrichereconomies.Especiallyinlower-incomecountries,whereinvestmentneedsforclimateactionoftenexceed5%ofGDP,increasedvolumesofconcessionalfinance—includingthroughgrants—arecriticaltoasuccessfulandjusttransition.

ThefirstbatchofCCDRsshowsusthattacklingclimateanddevelopmentisachievable.Together,wecanforgeapathtowardalow-carbonresilientfuture.

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

Summary

Climatechangeposesamajorthreattolong-termdevelopmentobjectives,especiallypovertyreduction,andacceleratedemissionreductionsareneeded,particularlyinhigh-incomeandotherhigh-emittingcountries.Reducingemissionscanbedonewithoutcomprisingdevelopment:takentogether,CCDRlow-carbondevelopmentstrategiesreduceemissionsby70%,withoutsignificantimpactongrowth,providedthatpoliciesarewelldesignedandfinancingisavailable.Financingneedsaverage1.4percentofGDP,amanageableamountwithappropriateprivatesectorinvolvement.Butinlower-incomecountries,financingneedscanexceed5%,whichwillrequiremoresupportfromhigh-incomecountries,includingincreasedconcessionalresources.

Tosupportthealignmentofdevelopmentandclimateobjectivesatthecountrylevel,theWorldBankGrouphaslaunchedanewcorediagnostictool:theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR).TheCCDRsintegrateclimatechangeanddevelopmentconsiderationsandaimtohelpgovernments,privatesectorinvestors,citizens,anddevelopmentpartnersprioritizethemostimpactfulactionsthatcanboostresilienceandadaptationandreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,whiledeliveringonbroaderdevelopmentobjectives.Thefirstsetof20CCDRscovers24countriesandprovidethreemaininsights.

First,climatechangeposesamajorthreattolong-termdevelopmentobjectives,especiallypovertyreduction.Withappropriateadaptationpolicies,countriescanreduceimpactsintheshortterm.Buteventhen,successfuldevelopmentrequirerapidreductionsinglobalGHGemissions,whichrequiresfirstandforemostacceleratedmitigationactioninhigh-incomecountriesandotherlargeemitters.

Second,climateobjectivescanbeachievedwithoutcompromisingdevelopment,butonlyifkeyconditionsaremet.Thesekeyconditionsincludewell-designedclimateactions,strongparticipationoftheprivatesector,adequateinternationalsupport,andappropriatecomplementarymeasurestomanageunavoidabletrade-offs,protectpoorpeople’sconsumption,andfacilitateajusttransition.MostCCDRlow-carbondevelopmentpathwaysaremoreambitiousthanexistingNDCs,reducingtotalGHGemissionsinCCDRcountriesby70%comparedwithacurrent-policyscenario.Takentogether,however,theywouldstillleadtosignificantemissionsin2050,showingtheneedtoadjustthesepathwaystoincreaseambitionovertime,butalsoforenhancedsupportfromandactioninHICs,includingwithnegativeemissions.

Third,successrequireschallengingpolicyreforms,reallocationofscarcepublicresources,increasedmobilizationofprivatecapital,andincreasedfinancialsupportfromtheinternationalcommunity.Resilientandlow-carbonpathwayscandeliverneteconomicgains,ifadditionalannualinvestmentneedsaveraging1.4percentofcountries’GDPover2022–30canbemet.Thetransitionalsorequiresmanagingpoliticaleconomyobstacles;strengtheninginstitutions;acceleratingdiffusionofnewtechnologies;andmanagingdistributionaloutcomes.Tobesuccessful,allcountrieswillrequirecarefullydesignedpoliciesandscaled-upfinancialsupportfromrichereconomies.Low-incomecountriesfacehigherinvestmentneeds,oftenexceeding5percent,andwillneedaccesstosustainedlevelsofconcessionalresources,includinggrants.

TheCCDRsrecognizethatineachcountry,agovernment-ledprioritizationandsequencingexerciseisanessentialsteptotranslatethediagnosticintoacountry-ownedstrategyandimplementableinvestmentplan.ACCDRcanbeanopportunityforgovernmentsandprivatesectorinvestors,citizens,internationalfinancinginstitutions,andWorldBankGrouppartnerstoengageondevelopmentandclimateaction,withbettercountry-levelcoordination.

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

1.CountryClimateandDevelopmentReports:integratingclimatechangeanddevelopment

Climatechange—causedbygreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromhumanactivities—posesseriousthreatstocountries’abilitytosecurepastdevelopmentsgainsandsustainimprovementsinlivingstandards.Climatechange,poverty,andinequalityaredefiningchallengesofourtime—anditiscrucialthatwetacklethemtogether,acknowledgingtheinterconnectionsbetweenpeople,planet,andtheeconomy.Tothisend,itisurgentthatcountriesbuildtheresilienceandadaptationoftheirpeopleandeconomiestotheeffectsofclimatechangeintheirdevelopmentstrategies,whilealsoreducingGHGemissionstomitigatedamagingchangestotheglobalpublicgoodthatisclimate.IntegratingclimateanddevelopmentisattheheartoftheWorldBankGroup’sClimateChangeActionPlan(CCAP)2021–25andtheWorldBank’sGreen,Resilient,andInclusiveDevelopment(GRID)approach.1

TheWorldBankGrouphasrecentlylaunchedanew,corediagnostictool:theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR).Integratingclimatechangeanddevelopmentconsiderations,thisdiagnosticisjointlyconductedbytheWorldBank,theInternationalFinanceCorporation,(IFC)andtheMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency(MIGA),inclosecoordinationwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.ItaimstohelpcountriesprioritizethemostimpactfulactionstoboostresilienceandadaptationandreduceGHGemissions,whiledeliveringonbroaderdevelopmentobjectives.CCDRsaredesignedtoanalyzetheconnectionbetweenclimateanddevelopmentpoliciesandidentifyconcretepriorityactionsthatsupportcountries’developmentgoalsastheyimproveclimateresilienceandloweremissions.Capturingthecentralityofpeopleinclimatechangepolicies,CCDRsassesshowclimaterisksaffectpeople,andhowgovernmentsandtheprivatesectorcanbuildresilience,consideringtheimplicationsofphysicalandtransitionrisksonpovertyandjobs.Thefirstsetof20CCDRs(publishedorinpress)covers24countries(figure1).2BuildingonthelessonslearnedfromtheinauguralyearoftheCCDR,weaimtorolloutCCDRstoallourclientcountriesoverthenextthreetofiveyears.

CCDRsuseascenarioapproach—consideringcountry-specificresilientandlow-carbondevelopmentpathways—toexplorethreebroadpolicyspaces.First,theylookatsectoralandmacroeconomicpoliciesandinvestmentsthatcreatesynergiesbetweenclimateactionandshort-tomedium-termdevelopmentobjectives.Forexample,improvingpublictransitcanexpandaccesstojobsandcriticalsocialservices,particularlyforwomenandthepoor,reducetrafficcongestion,andaddresslocalairpollution,allwhilereducingGHGemissions.Second,CCDRsexaminepotentialtrade-offsbetweenclimateandotherdevelopmentobjectivesandidentifypoliciesandinvestmentsthatcanpreventormanagethesetrade-offs.Forexample,decommissioningcoalinfrastructurereducesGHGemissionsbutcouldhaveadversesocialimpactsifnotaccompaniedbytargetedsupportforlocalcommunitiesandworkers.Third,CCDRsexploreopportunities,reforms,investments,andpolicyinstrumentstofurtherleverageprivatesectorresourcesandsolutionsforbothclimatechangeadaptationandmitigationandtobettermanagedistributionalimpactsandthepoliticaleconomy,usingapeople-centricapproachtotheclimateanddevelopmentagenda.

1

/handle/10986/35799;/handle/10986/36322

.

2

/en/publication/country-climate-development-reports

.

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

Initiated

DominicanRepublic

Azerbaijan

Bhutan

Cambodia

CentralAfricanRepublic

Colombia

DemocraticRepublicofCongo

Côted'Ivoire

Paraguay

Romania

Tunisia

Uzbekistan

WestBankandGaza

Zimbabwe

EcuadorGuinea-BissauIndia

KenyaLebanonLiberiaMadagascar

Aspublicdocuments,CCDRscanprovideimpetusatthecountrylevelforgovernments,theprivatesector,citizens,anddevelopmentpartnerstoengageintheclimateanddevelopmentagenda.Byconveningprivatesectorinvestors,governments,andmultilateraldevelopmentbanks,CCDRssupportcoordinatedcountry-levelclimateaction,andcanhelpdirectconcessionalandprivatefinancingfromprivatesectordevelopmentfinanciersandnontraditionaldonorstohigh-impactclimateaction.

FIGURE1:CCDRcountriescoveredinthissynthesispaperandthosewhereCCDRshavebeenrecentlyinitiated

Publishedorinpress

Mali

Mauritania

Morocco

Nepal

Niger

Pakistan

PeruThePhilippinesRwanda

SouthAfricaTürkiyeVietnam

Argentina

Bangladesh

BurkinaFaso

Cameroon

Chad

China

Egypt

Ghana

Iraq

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Malawi

Forthcoming

AngolaBrazilHonduras

Indonesia

Mozambique

Onhold

Ukraine

Sudan

EasternCaribbean

(AntiguaandBarbuda,

Dominica,Grenada,St.Kitts

andNevis,St.Lucia,andSt.

VincentandtheGrenadines)

Population(billions,2021)

GDP($,trillions,2020)

GHGemissions(MtCO2e,2018)

2.7

(34.5%)

393(0.8%)

2.7(34.0%)

15,980(33.8%)

19.4

(22.4%)

2.6

(3.0%)

3.9

3,387(7.2%)

22,063(46.7%)

60.5(69.9%)

(4.5%)

1.8

(23.2%)

0.6(7.2%)

5,460(11.5%)

Note:MtCO2e=milliontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent.

CCDRscombinethebestavailabledata,models,andtoolstoplacewhatisoftenadiscussionofimpactsinthedistantfutureintomoreimmediateandactionablerecommendationsfordecisionmakerstoday.Whiletheanalysisanddiagnostictypicallyextendto2050,CCDRpolicyrecommendationsfocusonthemedium-term,especiallytheyearsuntil2030.TheybenefitfromtheexpertiseofWorldBankGroupclientsandstaffondevelopmentchallenges—includingpovertyandprivatesectorissues—andstrongsynergieswithotherdiagnostics,suchasCountryEconomicMemorandums,PovertyAssessments,andCountryPrivateSectorDiagnostics.Theywillbeusefulfor:

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

•TheWorldBankGroup:CCDRswillinformtheWorldBankGroup’sSystematicCountryDiagnosticandCountryPartnershipFramework,ensuringthatthegroup’sprioritiesandfinancingportfolioconsiderdevelopmentandclimateobjectives.

•Governments:Byprovidingastrategic,macrofiscal,andfinancialdiscussiononclimate-relatedissues,andcomplementingWorldBankGroupsectoralengagementandanalyses,CCDRswillhelpcountriesframetheirowndevelopmentandclimateobjectives,facilitateawhole-of-governmentapproachtothisagenda,andidentifyhowtomobilizetheprivatesectorincludingprivatesectorcapital.

•Theprivatesectorandgeneralpublic:Aswellasthemaineconomicrisks,CCDRsidentifyeconomicopportunitiesforprivatesectorinvestmentandmarkets.Theycanalsotriggeraconversationwiththepublicandcivilsocietyaroundkeypriorities,trade-offs,andajusttransition.

•Aglobalaudience:CCDRsexplorerealisticpathwaystoachievetheglobalcommunity’sdevelopmentandclimateobjectives,includingtheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandthe

2030agenda,andidentifypolicyandexternalfinancingneedsaswellascommontechnologyandtradeissues.

ThissynthesissummarizesthemainemergingfindingsfromthefirstsetofCCDRs.Itidentifiescommonalitiesaswellasdifferencesandspecificitiesacrosscountrycontexts,incomegroups,andgeographies.Italsoaimstocombinetheseinsightstoinformonhowinternationaldevelopmentpartners—especiallyhigh-incomecountries(HICs)—shouldsupporttheglobaltransitiontowardamoreresilientlow-carbondevelopmentpath,includingthroughtheirownclimateactionandsupporttoclimateactioninlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(LICsandMICs)thushelpingreconcileclimateanddevelopment.

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

2.Climatechangeposesamajorthreattolong-termdevelopmentobjectives

»Climatechange—causedbyGHGemissionsfromhumanactivities—posesamajorthreattolong-rundevelopmentobjectives,especiallypovertyreduction.

»Withappropriateadaptationpolicies,countriescanreduceimpactsintheshortterm.

»Evenwithappropriateadaptation,successfuldevelopmentandpovertyreductionrequirerapidreductionsinglobalGHGemissions,whichrequiresfirstandforemostacceleratedmitigationactioninHICsandotherlargeemitters.

Climatechangeaffectsallenvironmentalconditionsinwhichpeopleliveandeconomiesoperate,withcomplexdirectandindirectimpactsonactivitiesandwell-being.Forexample,someimpactsarefeltthroughchangesinaverageclimateconditions,suchaswaterscarcityorthespatialdistributionofplants,crops,andwildlife,whileothersarefeltthroughchangesinthefrequencyandintensityofextremeweatherevents,suchasheatwaves,drought,floods,orstorms.Impactscanbedirect,suchaswhenhighertemperaturesaffecthealth,well-being,orlaborproductivity,orindirect,suchaswhenchangesinclimateaffectthedistributionofpeststhataffectagriculturalyieldsormagnifyconflict.ThefirstsetofCCDRsexaminemanyimpactchannels—includingeffectsonlaborproductivity,agriculturalyields,ornaturalhazards—toidentifyopportunitiesforprotectingeconomiesandpopulations.

Thefutureimpactsofclimatechangecriticallydependonthechoiceswemaketoday.Impactscanbereducedintheshorttermwithappropriatedevelopmentandadaptationpoliciesandinterventions,andinthemedium-to-longtermbyreducingglobalemissions.GHGemissions,demographics,technologies,workingconditions,andsocialandphysicalinfrastructureswillhavealargeimpactonboththemagnitudeofclimatechangeandthevulnerabilityofaffectedeconomiesandpopulations.

2.1.Climatechangehaswidespread,deep,andcascadingeffectsacrossmostsectors

Sectoral,macroeconomic,andpovertyimpactassessmentsdemonstratevulnerabilitytoclimatechange,especiallyinlow-incomeandhigh-povertycountries.Theimpactsofclimatechangearewide-rangingandcomplex,andtheyoftencascadeacrosssectorsandsystems.Anddespitebeingpartialandnotextendingbeyond2050(whentheworstimpactsareexpected),theCCDRimpactassessmentsdemonstratethatclimatechangehassignificantimplicationsforfoodsecurity,humanhealth,economicopportunities,anddevelopmentoutcomes(table1).TheCCDRsalsoshowthatimpactstendtobelocalized,withcountriesandregionsexposedtodifferentthreats.Forexample,inSub-SaharanAfrica,whereverypoorpeoplespendalargeshareoftheirbudgetonfood,peoplearehighlyvulnerabletoagriculturalimpactslocallyandinotherbigfood-producingcountries.Thedirectimpactofhighertemperaturesonlaborproductivity—especiallyforoutdoorworkers—isoneofthemainsourcesofeconomicdamageacrossallcountries.

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ClimateandDevelopment:AnAgendaforAction

TABLES.1:ExamplesofclimatechangeimpactsfromthefirstsetofCCDRs

Agricultureandfood

»By2030,Vietnamcouldexperienceagriculturallossesofupto6.2%comparedto2010levelsasopposedtoascenario

withoutclimatechangewhereagriculturaloutputisestimatedtoincreaseby25%

»InArgentina,annuallossesinrainfedagriculturefromwaterdeficitsorexcessesareestimatedat$2.1billion(0.6%of

GDP)

»By2050,inadryorhotscenario,theSahelcountriescouldexperiencea5–10%and11–20%fallincroprevenuesand

livestockyield,respectively,whileinawetscenario,theimpactonlivestockyieldscouldbepositiveinallcountries

»By2050,withoutclimatechangeadaptation,morethan2.6millionunitsoflivestock(71%ofthecurrenttotal)in

Camerooncouldbeunderdrought-inducedstressconditionsannually

»By2050,overallfoodproductioninEgyptcoulddeclineby5.7%

Water

»Withou