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2022/10/31

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TheMetaverse&Insurance

PixelPerfect?

January2022

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TheMetaverse&Insurance-PixelPerfect?

Foreword

ThegenesisofthispaperistheneedwehavefeltatourTECHNGIproject¹,toaddressabigquestion:istheMetaversethenextfrontierfortheInsuranceindustry?Wehaveconductedextensiveworkonestablishedtechnologyinnovationsandinsurance,withafocusonArtificialIntelligence.Itwouldberemissnottolookalittlefurtherintothefuture.

TherearewidelydivergingviewsontheMetaverse.On28October2021,MarkZuckerberg,FounderofFacebook,announcedthatthenewholdingcompanyforFacebookwouldbecalled“Meta",stating:“Weareatthebeginningofthenextchapterfortheinternet,andit'sthenextchapterforourcompanytoo.Thenextplatformwillbeevenmoreimmersive—anembodiedinternetwhereyou'reintheexperience,notjustlookingatit.WecallthistheMetaverse,anditwilltoucheveryproductwebuild."2

WilliamSherdenassessedprognosticatorsinhisbook“TheFortuneSellers.”Technologicalpredictionsgotapoorrating,yetnumerouspunditswouldhaveusbelievethat'theMetaverseisuponus'.Technologyhypestatementsareubiquitous,somuchsothatGartnerpromotesits'hypecycle'asawayofassessingthestateofatechnology.Peopleexhibit'fearofmissingout'somuchthatuseoftheacronymFOMOhasrisensharplysinceitemergedaround2009.

SuchamixtureofexcitementandskepticismisveryfamiliartousfromourworkatTECHNGI.Thisreportwascommissionedbyuson13October2021,soweclearlyweren'tjustjumpingonaZuckerbergbandwagon.Infactthisreportisn'tencouraginganyonetojumponanyMetaversebandwagonthatmightcollapse.WhatweaskedforwasabalancedsetofthoughtsonwhattheMetaversemightmeanforinsurance,thatcanalsohelpreadersarriveataGoldilockspoint,nottoomuch,andnottoolittle,hype;butjustright.

ProfessorAlistairMilneMA(Cambridge)MSc(LSE)PhD(LSE)

TECHNGI,PrincipalInvestigator

UniversityofLoughborough

1

https://www.techngi.uk/

2

/news/2021/10/founders-letter/

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Contents

Foreword

2

Preface

4

ExecutiveSummary

5

1.WhatistheMetaverse?

8

Introduction

8

Origins

9

Growth

10

2.HowBigAndPervasiveMightTheMetaverseBecome?

14

Parallels

14

lssuesForDiscussion

17

UseCases

21

Impact

22

3.MetaversalStudios-TheLeadingPlayers

24

4.ImplicationsForTheInsuranceSector 37

CompetitiveRivalry 38

BuyerPower 39

SupplierPower 40

Substitution 41

ThreatofNewEntry 42

5.Metalssues&TheMetaverse 43

Sociallmpacts 44

6.RealityVersusTalk 49

7.Recommendations&Conclusion 51

Sources 56

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Preface

Justafewyearsafter'metaverse'wascoinedin1992,theFinancialfaboratoryClub(FfC)wasformed.³TheFfCwasaf1.9millionlimitedliabilitypartnershipconductingresearchintofinancialriskmanagementover1997and1998.Theobjectivewastovisualisetheabstractrisksoffinance,andsomeprogresswasmade.FfCmemberswereTheLondonStockExchange,Royal&SunAlliance,Barclays,andZ/Yen.TheprogrammemanagerwastheMinistryofDefence'sDefenceEvaluationandResearchAgency.SupportingorganisationsincludedSiliconGraphics,theWorshipfulCompanyofInformationTechnologists,andCityUniversity.FinanceandtheMetaversearenotnew.

Afascinationwithtechnologyanditsimpactonsociety(fuelledbyasharedaddictiontosciencefiction)meanttheauthorshadtomaintainthestrictestdisciplinewhilewritingofthisreport,lestwe'digressed'ourselves.AstheimplicationsoftheMetaversefortheinsurancesectorweremapped,amyriadoffascinatingpathsrevealedthemselves,leadingofftootherindustries,sectors,orspeculativefiction.

Ourheartfeltthanksgototheinsuranceandtechnologyprofessionalsweinterviewedinthecourseofthisreport,whohelpedtokeepusonthestraightandnarrow-butalsoindulgedusbyspeculatingonpossibilities.Threecommonthemesemergedduringthesespeculativediscussions:

·seismicpotential-theMetaversecouldwelltransformeverything,thoughtheadventoftelevisiondidn'twipeoutradio;

·privacy-Metaversefeedbackfromphysiologicalreactions(youreyeballstracked,yourheartbeatmeasured,Alguessingyournextmove)meanyoursoulmaybelaidbaretoscrutiny,andprivacyisyetagainerodedbynewICT;

·newworlds-theMetaverseallowsthecreationofinfinitenewpsycho-geographies,eachwithitsown'landgrab',andinsurerswillneedtokeepacloseeyeoncyberspacetheywishtocontrol.

Wehopethatthisreporthelpsyou“getadetailedgriponthebigpicture”,whileavoidingthehype,sothatyou“getabigpicturegriponthedetails.”4Pleaseenjoythespeculation,hopefullymind-expanding.

ProfessorMichaelMainelli&SimonMills

Z/YenGroup

³

/work/sectors/financial-services/financial-aboratoryl

4

/publications/books/clean-business-cuisine/

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ExecutiveSummary

'Metaverse'describesinterlinked,persistent,shared,artificialrealityspaces.Theportmanteauof'meta',beyond,anduni-'verse'impliesanalternatespaceforsocialcommerce.

Insurersmayfeelthattheirproductsandserviceslieoutsidethisdomain,butalreadysomeinsurancefirmsuseMetaverseapproachestohelpsellandmanageinsurance,e.g.YuLife-https://.ThisshortreportwillexplaintheMetaverse,examinepotentialapplicationsforinsurers,andexplorethebusinessimplicationsofwidespreadadoptionoftheMetaverse.

TheMetaversecanbeconsideredanartificialreality-basedsuccessortotheInternet.Asvirtualrealityis3D,thepersistenceoftheMetaverseemphasises4D,i.e.timeplustheusualthreedimensionsofspace.CompaniesthatdelivertheirservicesorcontentdigitallywillfindthattheirpresenceintheMetaversewillincreasetheirinteractionswithcustomers,butalsotheirinteractionwithotherservicesandproducts.Thefightforthecustomers'eyeballswillplacesignificantemphasisontheuserexperienceinaugmentedandvirtualreality.Thelook,motion,sound,texture,and'feel'ofdigitalcontentmaybecomemoreimportantthanthe'backend'functionality.TheadventoftheMetaversehasseveralimplications:

Hyper-connectivity-CompaniesdeliveringtheirservicesdigitallywillfindthattheirpresenceintheMetaversewillincreasetheirinteractionsbothwithcustomers,andtheirinteractionwithotherservicesandproducts

online.

SemblanceOfQualityDominance-Thelook,motion,sound,texture,and'feel',theaestheticsofdigitalcontent,maybecomemoreimportantthanthe'backend'functionality.

NewLandGrabs-withnewworlds,newgeographies,andnewconceptsofspacetime,allowingadeeperunderstandingofconnectionsbetweenentitiesinthevirtualandphysicalrealms,insurerswillneedtokeepacloseeyeonthepsychogeographyorcyberspacetheywishtocontrol.

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TheMetaverseislikelytobeanevolutionary,ratherthanarevolutionarytechnology,andseveralfactorsmitigateagainstrapidwide-scaleadoption.

·Thetechnologyrequiredforfullemersionisbulky,uncomfortable,andnot

suitableformobileaccess.

·Afast,low-latencyconnectiontotheinternetisaprerequisite.

·TheMetaverselacksformalconnectivityamongitsvariousdomainssoitcurrentlyexistsasaseriesof'walledgardens'.

Despitetheselimitations,severalusecasesareemerging:

·Entertainment-Virtuallyallareasofentertainmentarebeingexplored,andalreadyseveralhigh-profileconcertsbywell-knownartistshavetakenplaceintheMetaversewithsignificantaudiencesandearnings.

Businessinteraction-Manycorporatesareexploringnext-generationVRandTelepresencetechnologiesassociatedwiththeMetaverse,perhapsdrivenbytherecent,rapidincreaseinremoteworkingandonlineconferencing,aswellasshowcasing.

·Specialistsimulations-TheMetaversehasapplicationsforeducation(the'metaversity'),training,medicine,health,exercise,disastermanagement,construction,maintenance,andtelerobotics.

Onlineculture-Gamers,coders,andotherpersistentlyonlinecommunitiesareearlyexperimenters,andperhapsadopters,withoneexamplebeingcommercialauctionsintheMetaverseofNon-FungibleTokens(NFTs)byvenerableauctionhouses.

IftheMetaversebecomeswidespread,itwillcreatechallengesandopportunitiesforpeopleconcernedwithrisk:

·AstheMetaverseisanewcreation,theriskstoitsusersarenotfullyunderstoodandcouldcreatelong-termhealthormentalriskissues,e.g.adolescentbrainformation,noveleye,hand,mental,orphysicalconditions,orcoordinationissues.

TheemergenceoftheMetaversemaycreatenewsocio-economicandpoliticalrisks,forexamplecreatingconditionsforwidespreadaddictionormakingMetaverseactivitiesrelevanttogainingorretainingemployment,orchangingthenatureofgeo-politicalpowerthroughincreasedinfluenceofforeignpopulations.

AstheMetaverseislikelytoberesidentin'thecloud',disputeresolutionwillbedifficult:wherearethingshappeninglegally?whowillregulatetransactionsintheMetaverse?howwilldisputesbearbitrated?howwilldecisionsbeenforced?

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TheMetaverseisyetpoorlyunderstood,butasacorenetworktechnologyitsownstilluncleareffectsmightbemultipliedbycombiningwithtechnologiessuchasmachine-learning(Al),quantumcomputing,malware,mind-alteringdrugs,orwidespreadsurveillance.

Inthelightofthesedevelopmentsinsurersmightconsiderthefollowingactions:·FamiliarisethemselveswiththeconceptoftheMetaverse,visualisation,machine-learning(Al),connectivity,bigdata,andother4IR(fourth

industrialrevolutiontechnologies)aswellassomeofthecurrenthighlyactiveareassuchasNFTsorcryptocurrencies;

EnhancetheirskillsbaseintheMetaverse'swiderangeofrequisiteexpertisebyinvestingintrainingandrecruitingmorespecialistexpertiseinareassuchasvisualisation,machine-learning(Al),connectivity,bigdata,aesthetics,orpsychology;

·ExplorewaysofofferingnewMetaverseproductsandservices.Thesecould

include:

>managingtherisksassociatedwithanindividual'spersonaldataandacorporate'sMetaversedata;

>managingtherisksassociatedwithdigitalassets,inparticulartheft,regulation,governmentpolicy,andlegaljurisdictionrisk;

>developingspecificinsuranceproductsforMetaverseapplications,suchastheprotectionofpersonaldataanddigitalassets,orinsuringagainstlong-termphysicalormentalharm;

>offeringriskcontrolandmitigationproducts,ratherthanjustcompensationforlosssuffered,moreakintotheservicesofferedbycyber-securityfirmssuchasNortonandMcAfee.

Considernewfundingmechanisms,particularlyextensionsofcrowdfunding.TheMetaverse,ifitachievesscale,isparticularlysuitedtolargenumbersofusersguaranteeingthings.Forexample,aninsurance-linkedsecurityinsuringspecificonlineassetscouldbetiedtousers'guarantees,orgamblingmarketsusedtocreateportfoliosforriskmanagement.

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1.WhatistheMetaverse?

Introduction

WikipediadefinestheMetaverseasacollectivevirtualsharedspace,createdbytheconvergenceofvirtuallyenhancedphysicalrealityandphysicallypersistentvirtualspace,includingthesumofallvirtualworlds,augmentedreality,andtheInternet.AlthoughitisunusualtorelyonWikipediaforadefinition,despitethehypeofbeing'thenext-nextbigthing',theMetaversebarelyexistsatpresent.

TheEconomistdescribes,“apersistentvirtualworld,accessibleviaspecialgoggles,wherepeoplecouldmeet,flirt,playgames,buyandsellthings,andmuchmorebesides.In2022itreferstothefusionofvideogames,socialnetworking,andentertainmenttocreatenew,immersiveexperiences,likeswimminginsideyourfavouritesongatanonlineconcert.GamessuchasMinecraft,Roblox,andFortniteareallstepping-stonestoanemergingnewmedium".5Thisreportsslightlyshorterdefinitionis:

'Metaverse'-interlinked,persistent,shared,artificialrealityspaces.

TheMetaversecombinesandreliesuponnumerouselementsoftechnology,includingvirtualreality,augmentedreality,video,networkconnectivity,mobiledevices,sensors,motiondevices,perambulators,suits,goggles,andvariousothertechnologiessothatusers'live'withinadigitaluniverse.This'combinatorialtechnology'characteristicmeansthatthedefinitionisfluid,andthesuccessoftheMetaversedependsatanyonetimeorapplicationonthesuccessfulintegrationofausefulsetoftechnologies.

ThiscombinatorialtechnologycharacteristicalsomeansthattheMetaverseishardtoassess.Whenhasitarrived?Whatisa'true'Metaverse?'Electricalpower','thetelephone',and'theinternet'were'corenetworktechnologies'thatenabledmanywidespreadapplications.Inturn,themanyapplicationseachcorenetworktechnologyspawnedaffectedsociety,othertechnologies,economics,andpoliticstothepointthatthecoretechnologicaltermbecamesynonymouswiththoseeffects.WhencomparingtheMetaversewiththehistoricaltrajectoryofothertechnologiesitismoreakintothearrivalofelectricalpower,thetelephone,ortheemergenceoftheinternet,thanan

s"WhatNext?22EmergingTechnologiesToWatchIn2022",TheWorldAhead2022,TheEconomist,

/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/what-next-22-emerging-technologies-to-watch-in-

2022.

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isolatedtechnology,sayanewmetalalloyoranewstrainofrice,howeversignificant.ThebreadthofdepthofchangetheMetaversemustproducetomeetitsownhypemeansitwillonlybeasuccessifitbecomesubiquitousandoverwhelming.

Origins

Theconceptof'living'inimmersivevirtualrealityhasbeenaroundsincethe1980s,withaproto-MetaversedescribedbyWilliamGibsoninhisseminalworks“Neuromancer”(1984)and“CountZero”(1986)-shortlyafterARPANETadoptedTCP/IP⁶,atleastfiveyearsbeforeSirTimBerners-LeeinventedtheWorldWideWeb(WWW)⁷.Theactualterm'Metaverse'wasfirstusedbyNealStephensoninhis1992sciencefictionnovel“SnowCrash”Stephenson'sfirstexplanationgoes:

“SoHiro'snotactuallyhereatall.He'sinacomputer-generateduniverse

thathiscomputerisdrawingontohisgogglesandpumpingintohis

earphones.Inthelingo,thisimaginaryplaceisknownastheMetaverse.

HirospendsalotoftimeintheMetaverse.ItbeatstheshitoutofU-Stor-lt.”

[NealStephenson,“SnowCrash”,1992]

TheMetaversecontinuedtoinspirefiction,particularlysciencefiction,forexample,RichardMorgan's“AlteredCarbon”(2002),CharlesStross's“Accelerando”(2005),lainMBanks'highlydystopian“SurfaceDetail”(2010)wheretheMetaversecontainsartificialhells,wherevirtualafterlivesofthemind-statesofthedeadaretortured.TheMetaversehasbeenpickedupasatropeinfilmssuchas“TheMatrix”(1999),“MinorityReport”(2002),“Avatar”(2009),“ReadyPlayerOne”(2018),and“FreeGuy”(2021),aswellasimpliedinearlierfilmssuchas“Tron”(1982),“WhoFramedRogerRabbit”(1988),and“LawnmowerMan”(1992).

AlthoughinfictionandfilmtheMetaverseisoftendepictedasanextremevirtualdystopia,orasafantasyrealmtoescapeaphysicaldystopiawhereprotagonistsadoptgleamingavatarstodobattlewithevilcorporations,crackcode,andsetdatafree,therealityisalittlemoreprosaic.WhiletheMetaversedoesnotyetexist,itisclearlycomingandspeculationonitscommercialrisksandopportunitiescanbegin.

‘UniversitySystemofGeorgia"ABriefHistoryoftheInternet”

/galileo/skills/unit07/internet0702.phtml

CERN"TheBirthOfTheWeb"https://home.cern/science/computing/birth-web

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Box1-ArianaGrandeSingsInTheMetaverse

PopStarArianaGrandeisjustoneofanumberofmusicianstoperformaseriesofconcertsintheMetaverse.Usingthevideogame'Fortnite'asherplatform,inAugust2021thesingerperformeda15minuteset.Theshowwasheldfivetimesindifferenttimezones,withtheveryfirstconcertattracting1millionpeopleatitspeak.TheeventhassubsequentlybeenwatchedonYouTubeover1.5milliontimes.

Theattractionofthistypeofeventtotheaudience,isthatthroughtheiravatar,theygettoexperiencealiveconcertbytheirfavouritesinger-muchlikeaninteractivemusicvideo.Theadvantagestotheartistare:

Asignificantcostsavingincomparisontohostingaliveconcert(notransport,staging,orsecuritycosts);

Marketsegmentationandtheabilitytoaccuratelytargettheaudiencedemographicwithpersonalisedpromotionalmaterialpriortotheevent;Theabilitytoboostsalesoftie-inpromotionalmaterialandothercontentthroughinteractivefeatures-forexamplepromotionalt-shirt'skins'foravatars.

Themerchandisingaspectisparticularlyimportant.ForbesestimatesthataconcerteventputonbyFortnitewithTravisScottearnedtheartist$20millioninmerchandisesales(/3t7vbp8z).

Growth

“Mosthumanbeingshaveanalmostinfinitecapacity

fortakingthingsforgranted".

[AldousHuxley,“BraveNewWorld”,1932]

Inalllikelihood,movingsocietyintoaninfinitelyconnectedDayGlo'"worldwillnotbearevolutionbutapunctuatedand,attimes,uncomfortableevolution.Internet1.0wasdial-upandrestrictedtoword-heavystaticpagesandlibrarycatalogues.Internet2.0waspoweredbybroadbandandopeneduptheworldofmulti-mediaandstreamingcontent.Internet3.0wasmobileandallowedinstanttransactionsandaccesstoservicesfromyourphone.Internet4.0istoday-the'internetofeverything'(loE)connecting“people,processes,data,andthings,turninginformationintoactionsthatcreatenewcapabilities,richerexperiences,andunprecedentedopportunities.”

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Table1-FourPhasesOfTheInternet

Phase1Phase2Phase3Phase4

Connectivity

Networked

economy

Collaborative

experiences

Internetof

everything

Digitiseaccesstoinformation

Digitisebusiness

process

Digitise

interactions

(businessand

social)

Digitisethe

world,

connecting

·email

·webbrowser·search

·e-commerce

·digitalsupply

chain

·collaboration

·social

·mobility

·cloud

·video

·people

·process

·data

·things

Thefirstphasestartedover20yearsagoand

isreferredtoas'connectivity'.

Email,web

browsing,andsearchingfor

contentwas

justbeginning

Thesecondphase

startedinthelate1990sandwasthe

'networked

economy'phase.

Thiswasthebirthof

e-commerceand

digitallyconnectedsupplychains.It

changedtheway

weshoppedand

howcompanies

reachednew

markets.

Thethirdphasestartedintheearly2000sandisknownasthe'collaborativeexperiences'

phase.Thisphaseisdominatedby

widespreaduse

ofsocialmedia,mobility,video,

andCloud

computing.Thisphasecompletelytransformedtheworldofwork.

Thecurrent

phaseiscalledthe'internetofeverything(loE)'Thisphase

connectspeople,processes,data,

andthings,

turning

informationintoactionsthat

createnew

capabilities,

richer

experiences,andunprecedented

opportunities.

[“TheInternetOfEverything”,OpenLearn,OpenUniversity-

/openlearn/ocw/mod/oucontent/view.php?id=48444§ion=1.1

downloadedJanuary2022]

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Today'sInternet4.0coincideswithpeoplepromulgatingthe“FourthIndustrialRevolution(4IR)".Thefirstindustrialrevolution(1IR)ofthe19thcenturyencompassediron,steel,andmechanisation.The2IRwastheeraofelectricalpowerandtransport,alongsideanexplosioninmassproduction.The3IRdescribesthedigitalrevolutionincomputingandconnectivity,leadingtonewmechanismsofcentralisationanddecentralisation.The4IRconsiderspervasivecybercapabilitiesphysicallyintegratedeverywhere,encompassingmachine-learning(Al),bigdata,andhyper-connectivity.

TheMetaverseconceptcoincideswithInternet4.0and4IR.TheMetaverseisthefrontman,thestage,thewindowontoInternet4.0and4IR.Itwon'tsucceedthembutbuilduponthem,anditerativelytransformthem.ConsidertheMetaverseanover-archingwayofincludingpeopleinanartificialuniversethatallowsthemtointeractwiththemachineryandtechnologiestheycreatedinavisualandimmersiveenvironment.ItisimportanttorememberthatInternet3.0andearlierleftwoesoftheirown.Bynotaddressingsecurityissuesweareleftwithrampantcybercrime,impersonation,datatheft,andindustrialespionage.Bynotaddressingsocietalissueswehavepornography,trolling,anddivisivesocialdiscourse.TheseissueswillpersistinInternet4.0,4IT,andtheMetaverse.Theobservationthat“dataisthenewoil”maybehackneyed,butalsotrue.TheMetaversewillbepoweredbydata,andthreatenedbythequalityandquantityofdatasupply.

ThebirthofInternet4.0isoftenpinnedto29June2007withthereleaseofa'killerapp',theApplei-phone.ThekillerappfortheMetaversehasyettobeinvented,althoughGooglemadeaspiritedattemptwithGoogleGlass⁸.VRheadsetsarestillcumbersomeandexpensive,andtheiruseisrestrictedtoafewspecialistapplications(includinggaming),buttheirpriceandsizearereducing.In2019,Samsungwasawardedpatentsforsmartaugmentedreality(AR)contactlenses',thoughtheyhaveyettomakeitintoproduction.

Braininterfacetechnologyisalsoreceivingagreatdealofattention.SiliconValleystart-upNeuralink¹0isdevelopingafully-implanted,wireless,high-channel-count,brain-machineinterface(BMI)toenablepeoplewithparalysistodirectlyusetheirneuralactivitytooperatecomputersandmobiledevices.ItisonlyamatteroftimebeforeBMlandtheMetaversecollide.

'/glass/start/

9

/2019/08/smart-phone-to-smart-contact-lenses-samsung-wins-patent/

10

/blog/series-c/

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MovebeyondtheCGlandflightsoffancy,andincreasinglypeoplearebeingwrappedinacloakofinternet-linkedtechnologies-healthandfitnessmonitors,personalassistants,internet-enableddomesticgoods,smartTVs,andsmartwatches.TheplumbingfortheMetaverseisrapidlybeinginstalled.

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2.HowBigAndPervasiveMightTheMetaverse