2021-2021年可再生能源前景报告英文

Acknowledgements

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheRenewableEnergyDivisionintheDirectorateof

EnergyMarketsandSecurity.ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyHeymiBahar,

SeniorAnalyst.

TheleadauthorsofthereportwereHeymiBahar(electricity)andJeremy

Moorhouse(biofuels).Thereportbenefitedfromanalysisandinputfrommultiple

colleagues:YasminaAbdelilah,PiotrBojek,FrangoisBriens,ChenluCheng,

TrevorCriswell,KazuhiroKurumiandGreciaRodriguezJimenez(also

responsiblefordatamanagement).

PaoloFrankl,HeadoftheRenewableEnergyDivision,providedstrategic

guidanceandinputtothiswork.Valuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovided

byKeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurityDirectorate.

ThanksgototheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)fortheirhelpin

producingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlytoJadMouawad,Headof

CDO,andtoJonCuster,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,ChristopherGully,Jethro

Mullen,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,JuliePuech,RobertStone,GregoryViscusiand

ThereseWalsh.

KristineDouaudcarriededitorialresponsibility.

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Highlights

•In2020,annualrenewablecapacityadditionsincreased45%toalmost280GW-

thehighestyear-onyearincreasesince1999.

•Exceptionallyhighcapacityadditionsbecomethe“newnormal"in2021and2022,

withrenewablesaccountingfor90%ofnewpowercapacityexpansionglobally.

•SolarPVdevelopmentwillcontinuetobreakrecords,withannualadditions

reaching162GWby2022-almost50%higherthanthepre-pandemiclevelof

2019.

•Globalwindcapacityadditionsincreasedmorethan90%in2020toreach

114GW.Whilethepaceofannualmarketgrowthslowsin2021and2022,itisstill

50%higherthanthe2017-2019average.

•AnnualgrowthinthePeople'sRepublicofChina's(hereafter,,tChinan)renewables

marketwilldeceleratefollowingtheexceptionalexpansionthatresultedfrom

developersrushingtocompleteprojectsbeforesubsidyphase-outs.However,the

restoftheworldcompensatesforChina'sslowdownandmaintainsthepaceof

renewablesexpansion.

•Europe'scapacitygrowthacceleratesthankstofurtherpolicysupportanda

boomingcorporatePPAmarketasPVcostscontinuetodecline.

•TheupdatedforecastfortheUnitedStatesismoreoptimisticbecauseoffederal

taxcreditextensions.NewUSemissionsreductiontargetsandtheinfrastructure

bill,ifpassed,willboostrenewablesexpansionafter2022(beyondthetimeframe

ofthisforecastupdate).

PAGE|4

•AlthoughIndia'scapacityadditionsin2020declinedalmostover50%from2019,

thecountryisexpectedtosetnewrecordsforrenewablesexpansionin2021and

2022asdelayedprojectsfrompreviouscompetitiveauctionsarecommissioned.

However,thecurrent(April2021)surgeinCovid-19caseshascreatedshort-term

forecastuncertaintyforthisyear.

•Transportbiofuelproductionisexpectedtoreboundto2019volumesin2021,after

havingfallen8%in2020.Productionisalsoforecasttoexpandanother7%in

2022.

•MainlydrivenbycleanfuelstandardsandpolicysupportintheUS,global

HydrotreatedVegetalOil(HVO)productioncapacityisexpectedtonearlydouble

inthenexttwoyears,significantlyexpandingthecapabilityofproducingbiofuels

fromwasteandresiduefeedstocks.

PAGE|5

5

Renewableelectricity

Aquicklookbackat2020

Policydeadlinesinkeymarketspropelledglobal

renewablecapacityadditionstoalmost280GWin2020,

thehighestyear-on-yearincreaseinthelasttwodecades

Despitepandemic-inducedsupplychainchallengesandconstructiondelays,

renewablecapacityadditionsin2020expandedbymorethan45%from2019,and

brokeanotherrecord.Anexceptional90%riseinglobalwindcapacityadditions

ledtheexpansion.Alsounderpinningthisrecordgrowthwasthe23%expansion

ofnewsolarPVinstallationstoalmost135GWin2020.

PolicydeadlinesinChina,theUnitedStatesandVietNamspurredan

unprecedentedboominrenewablecapacityadditionsin2020.Chinaalonewas

responsibleforover80%oftheincreaseinannualinstallationsfrom2019to2020,

asonshorewindandsolarPVprojectscontractedunderChina'sformerFIT

scheme,andthoseawardedinpreviouscentralorprovincialcompetitiveauctions,

hadtobeconnectedtothegridbytheendof2020.IntheUnitedStates,wind

powerdevelopersrushedtocompletetheirprojectsbeforeexpirationofthe

productiontaxcredit(PTC),althoughitwasextendedforanotheryear,in

December2020.InVietNam,phaseoutoftheFITforsolarPVprojectsledtoan

unprecedentedrushincommercialandresidentialinstallations.

Renewablecapacityadditionchangesfrom2019to2020

§

TotalDecreaseIncreaseTotal

□Wind□SolarPV■Hydropower

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

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Therushtocommissionprojectspriortopolicydeadlinesinthesecountriestook

placeinthelastquarter(Q4)of2020,especiallyinDecember.Infact,developers

connectedalmost150GWofnewrenewablecapacityinQ4of2020-morethan

doublethenumberofgigawattscommissionedinQ4of2019andexceedingthe

amountinstalledinthefirstthree-quartersof2020.Overall,IEAquarterly

deploymentestimatesindicatethattheslowdowninrenewablecapacityadditions

waslimitedtoQ12020only,mainlyinChina,whileconstructionactivitycontinued

stronglyintherestoftheworlddespitecontinuousmovementrestrictionsand

supplychaindelays.TheDecembersurgeinnewinstallationsalsoindicatesthat

solarandwindconstructionsupplychainswereabletofurnishrecordnumbersof

projectsinChina,theUnitedStates,VietNamandvariousEuropeancountries.

Quarterlyrenewablecapacityadditions,2019-2020

□Restofworld

■APAC

■ASEAN

□India

■LatinAmerica

□Europe

■UnitedStates

□China

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:Quarterlyrenewablecapacityadditionsmaynotadduptoabovementionedannualcapacityadditionsduetolimited

availabilityofgranulardataformultiplecountries.APAC=Asia-Pacificregion.ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsian

Nations.

2021and2022forecastsummary

Renewablesdeploymentgearedupin2020,establishing

a“newnormal”forcapacityadditionsin2021and2022

Theexceptionallevelofrenewableenergycapacityadditionsisexpectedtobe

maintained,with270GWbecomingoperationalin2021and280GWin2022.This

expansionexceedstherecord-levelannualcapacityadditionsof2017-2019by

over50%,suchthatrenewablesareexpectedtoaccountfor90%oftotalglobal

powercapacityincreasesinboth2021and2022.

GE7U

.

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IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Althoughtheamountofannualwindcapacityadditionsisexpectedtodecreasein

2021-2022aftertheexceptionaljumplastyearinChina,80GWofannual

installationsarestillanticipatedglobally,i.e.almost35%morethanin2019.

ContinuousgrowthinsolarPVadditions,spurredbylowerinvestmentcostsand

ongoingpolicysupport,partlycompensatesforlowerwindcapacityadditions.We

expectannualsolarPVexpansiontoreach145GWin2021and162GWin2022,

breakingrecordsandaccountingforalmostover55%ofallrenewableenergy

expansionthisyearandnext.Theaccelerationofhydropoweradditionsthrough

2022isdrivenbythecommissioningofmega-scaleprojectsinChina.Meanwhile,

expansioninotherrenewables,ledbybioenergy,remainsstableandrepresents

3%oftotalnewrenewablecapacityadditions.

Netrenewablecapacityadditionsbytechnology,2020-2022

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China'spolicytransitionslowsexpansion,butother

countriescompensatewithfastergrowth

AlthoughChinahasaccountedfor40%ofglobalrenewablecapacitygrowthfor

severalyearsalready,forthefirsttimein2020itwasresponsiblefor50%-a

recordlevelresultingfromtheunprecedentedpeakinnewinstallationsin

December.WeexpectChina'srenewablecapacityadditionstodeclinebyone-

quarterin2021comparedwithlastyearbecauseofthegovernment'sdecisionto

phaseoutsubsidiesforbothwindandsolarPVprojectsattheendof2020.There

isalsouncertaintyaboutthestructureofthenewincentiveschemesthatwillbe

announcedtowardstheendof2021.

Nevertheless,China'santicipatedannualrenewablecapacityadditions(+45%in

2021and+58%in2022)remainsignificantlyabovethe2017-2019average

despitethisslowdown.Growthmayaccelerateagainafter2022only,stimulated

bynewpolicymeasuresalignedwiththecountry'sambitiouslong-termtargetto

attainnet-zeroemissionsby2060.

Annualrenewablecapacityadditionsbycountryandregion,2017-2022

M

0

-^^>China匚二iUnitedStatesrEurope

coIndia♦aASEANi)LatinAmerica

c=iMENA匚二JOthercountries-♦-China'sshare

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Notes:The“2017-19"barrepresentsaverageannualcapacityadditionsforthatthree-yearperiod.ASEAN=Associationof

SoutheastAsianNations.MENA=MiddleEastandNorthAfrica.

Europeacceleratesdeployment,becomingthesecond-

largestrenewablepowermarketafterChina

InEurope,annualcapacityadditionsareforecasttoincrease11%to44GWin

2021and49GWin2022.Withthisexpansion,thisyeartheregionwillbreakthe

recordforannualadditionsforthefirsttimesince2011andbecomethesecond-

largestmarketafterChina.Germanywillcontinuetodeliverthelargestrenewable

capacityadditionsinEurope,followedbyFrance,theNetherlands,Spain,the

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UnitedKingdomandTurkey.Thisstronggrowthresultsfrommultiplecountries

extendingtheirpoliciestomeettheEU2030climatetarget,andbycorporate

powerpurchaseagreement(PPA)marketsboominginseveralcountries:

Germany-supportforsolarPV,windandbioenergywithhigherauctionvolumes

throughGermany'sRenewableEnergyAct2021(EEG)

TheNetherlands-allocationofthenewSDE++schemeinDecember2020

Turkey-extensionoffeed-intariff(FIT)schemeforallrenewables

Poland-newauctionawardedalmost1GWofPVinDecember2020

Spain-recordcorporatePPAagreementssignedin2020

Sweden-lowwindgenerationcostsstimulateaboominthecorporatePPA

market;continuationofthePVrebateprogramme

TheUnitedKingdom-proposaltore-includeonshorewindandsolarPVinthe

2021contractsfordifference(CfD)auction.

WhileUStaxcreditextensionsimprovetheoutlookfor

onshorewind,approvalofproposedpolicieswould

boostrenewablesdeploymentbeyond2022

InDecember2020,theUSgovernmentextendedproductionandinvestmenttax

creditsbyonemoreyearforonshorewindandsolarPV.Thesechangeswill

mostlyaffecttheonshorewindsectorin2021and2022,astheextensionsmake

newprojectsstartingconstructionin2021eligibleforaUSD18/MWhtaxcredit.

Asaresult,wehaverevisedouronshorewindforecastupwardsby25%forthis

yearand2022.ForsolarPV,theinvestmenttaxcredit(ITC)haslittleeffectonour

short-termforecast,astheDecemberextensioncoversonlyprojectsstarting

constructionin2022and2023.Still,decliningcosts,arecoveringdistributedPV

sectorandgrowinginterestincorporatePPAsofferhopeformoreextensivesolar

PVexpansion.

ThenewUSinfrastructureplanpresentedinMarch2021proposesa"direct-pay"

provisionfortax-credit-eligiblerenewables,reducingtheneedforrelatively

expensivetaxequity.Asimilarprovisionpassedin2009boostedwinddeployment

significantlyduring2010-2014.Furthermore,theplanoffersaten-yeartaxcredit

extension,providingunprecedentedvisibilityforwindandPVdevelopers,spurring

muchfasterexpansion.However,thelegislativeprocessforthesepolicy

proposalshasnotyetbeencompletedandtheexpectedimpactsarethereforenot

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reflectedinourforecastfor2021and2022.Adetailedassessmentofthenew

infrastructureplan,andofotherrelevantlegislationtoachievetheannounced

targetsofhalvingUSgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsby2030andmaking

USelectricitycarbon-neutralby2035,willbeincludedinthefullautumneditionof

Renewables2021.

Indiaisbackontrack

TheCovid-19impactonrenewableenergydeploymenthasaffectedIndiamore

thananyothercountry:pandemic-inducedconstructiondelaysandgrid

connectionchallengescausedIndia'scapacityadditionstodeclinebyalmost50%

from2019to2020.Althoughnewrecordsforrenewablecapacityexpansionare

expectedtobesetin2021and2022asdelayedprojectsfromprevious

competitiveauctionsarecommissioned,thecurrent(April2021)surgeinCovid-19

caseshascreatedshort-termforecastuncertainty.Whilethefinancialhealthof

distributioncompanies(DISCOMs)remainstheprimarychallengetorenewable

energydeploymentinIndia,therecentlyproposedreformofUSD40billionto

improveDISCOMoperationsandfinanceswouldofferamorepositiveoutlook.

VietNam'sPVboomends,slowingASEANgrowth,while

expansionresumesinLatinAmericafollowingdelays

IntheASEANregion,rapidsolarPVexpansioninVietNamboostedtheregion's

capacityadditionstoarecord13GWin2020-60%higherthanin2019.However,

thephasingoutofFITsinVietNamandrelativelysluggishrenewableenergy

growthinIndonesiaandThailandleadstoatwo-thirdsdeclineinASEAN

expansionin2021and2022relativeto2020.InLatinAmerica,projectsdelayed

from2020willbecomeoperationalinBrazil,MexicoandChile,whileincreasingly

attractivedistributedPVcostsdriverapiddevelopmentthankstoBrazil'sgenerous

net-meteringpolicy.AgrowingcorporatePPAmarketandbilateralcontracts

outsideofauctionschemesalsosupportdeploymentinLatinAmerica.

Growthdriversfor2021and2022

Forecastadditionsfor2021and2022havebeenrevised

upwardsbyover25%fromlastyear

DespiteChina'sphaseoutofsubsidiesandongoingpolicytransition,itsforecast

hasbeenrevisedthemostfromlastyear.ThepipelineofsolarPVandwindplant

projectsacceptingprovincialelectricitypriceswithoutadditionalsubsidieshas

PAGE|11

increasedsincelastyear,resultinginamoreoptimisticforecast.IntheUnited

States,theextensionoftaxcreditsisexpectedtoleadtofastershort-termonshore

windgrowth,whileBrazil'sgenerousnetmeteringschemeresultsinadistributed

PVmarketboom,supportingupwardrevisionstotheLatinAmericaforecast.In

theASEANregion,VietNam'spolicychangesw川reducecapacityadditions

significantly,butgrowthisnotexpectedtocollapsefullythankstotheincreasing

cost-competitivenessofsolarPV.InIndia,contractedPVauctionvolumesin2020

exceededourpredictions,raisingforecastexpectations.

Capacityadditionsforecastrevisionsfor2021and2022

□Nov20forecast□May21forecast♦%revision(rightaxis)

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Note:ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.

Record-breakingcompetitiveauctionsvolumesboost

renewablesdeploymentin2021and2022

Despitedecliningelectricitydemandandwholesalepowerpricedropsduetothe

impactsofpandemic,governmentsaroundtheworldauctionedarecordamount

ofrenewableenergycapacity,awardingalmost75GWofonshorewind,offshore

wind,solarPVandbioenergylastyear-20%morethanin2019.

Auctionsheldin2020(and2019)remainthemainbasisofourforecastfor2021

and2022,inadditiontoFITandnet-meteringpoliciesforsmallerapplications.

IndiaandChinatogetherauctionedalmost55GWofwindandPVcapacityat

averagecontractpricesofUSD60/MWhforwindandUSD47/MWhforPV.

AuctionactivityslowedslightlyinEurope,butthiswasbecausesmallervolumes

ofoffshorewindwerecontracted,whereasinLatinAmericathedropwas

significantasBrazil,ChileandArgentinapostponedtheir2020auctionsdueto

PAGE|12

lackofdemandandfinancingchallenges.Forthefirsttime,windandPVhybrid

auctionvolumeswereover6GW,mainlybecauseIndiaisofferingnew

opportunitiesfordevelopers.

Renewableelectricitycompetitiveauctioncapacitybyawarddate,2011-2020

CorporateprocurementexpandsaswindandPVcosts

continuetodecline

Likecompetitiveauctions,corporatepowerprocurementalsohadanotherrecord-

breakingyearin2020,witha25%year-on-yearincreasecreditedtodeclining

costs.WhiletheUnitedStatesremainstheworld'slargestcorporatePPAmarket,

activityinEuropealmosttripledwithSpainsigninglargecontractswithmultiple

PVdevelopersandSwedencontractingconsiderablewindprojects.IntheAsia-

Pacificregion,newdevelopmentsareemerginginKorea,Indiaandsome

provincesinChinawhenallowed.InLatinAmerica,Brazilcontinuestobethe

largestcorporatePPAmarketwithanincreasingnumberofprojectsrelyingon

long-termcontractsoutsidethegovernment'sauctionscheme.ElsewhereinLatin

America,PPAactivityinChileandMexicodeclinedlastyearasaresultofcurtailed

economicactivityandgrowingfinancingchallenges.

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CorporatePPAvolumesbyregionandtechnology

ByregionBytechnology

□Americas■Europe,MiddleEast&Africa□AsiaPacific□Solar■Wind0Other

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance(2021),CorporatePPAdatabase.

SolarPV

SolarPVcapacityadditionsareexpectedtoincrease8%toover145GWin2021.

PVhasbecomethelowest-costoptionforelectricitygenerationinmanycountries,

especiallythosewithgoodresourceavailabilityandaffordablefinancing.Asa

result,corporationsareincreasinglyoptingforbilateralcontractswithlarge-scale

solarPVplantstomeettheirenergydemand.Thankstofurthercostreductions

andcontinuouspolicysupportfrom120governmentsglobally,PVcapacity

additionsareforecasttoexpandfurtherto162GWin2022.

LargerprojectsdominatethesolarPVmarket

Theshareofutility-scaleapplicationsinannualPVadditionsisforecasttoincrease

fromover55%in2020toalmost70%in2022.Althoughtheshareofdistributed

projectsinoverallPVdeploymentincreasedfrom25%in2016tonearly45%in

2018owingtoChina'sattractivesupportscheme,thistrendwasreversedin2019

whentheChinesegovernmentreduceditsgenerousFITsforcommercialand

industrialPVprojects.Nevertheless,sustainedsupportdoubledthedeployment

ofresidentialapplicationsfrom2019to2020.OutsideChina,expanding

competitivecorporatePPAmarketsinUnitedStatesandEuropehavemadelarger

utility-scaleprojectsmoreeconomicallyattractive.

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AnnualsolarPVcapacityadditionsbyapplicationsegment,2015-2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

Supplychainconstraintsandrisingcommodityprices

provokeshort-termPVpriceuncertainties

SolarPVmodulepricesclimbedfromJuly2020toApril2021duetosupplychain

complicationsandrisingcommodityprices,erasingthe25%pricereduction

achievedbetweenJanuaryandJune2020.FiresintwoPV-gradesilicon

manufacturingplantsintheXinjiangprovinceinJuly2020almosthalvedChina's

totalsiliconoutputandpushedsiliconpricesup60%inSeptember2020.Although

manufacturingcapacityhassincerecoveredgraduallyandthecostofsilicon

materialshasbeguntofall,pricesattheendof2020werestillsignificantlyhigher

thanearlierintheyearduetoatightsupply-demandbalanceanddelaysin

commissioningnewmanufacturingcapacityinotherChineseprovinces.

Meanwhile,thevalueofseveralkeyinputmaterialsforPVpanelmanufacturing

alsoincreasedconsiderably.Inthesecondhalfof2020,PV-gradeglassprices

surged50%,mainlyduetogrowingdemandforbifacialmodulesanddelaystothe

modernisationofhigh-costproductionlines.Steelandcopperpricesalsorose

40%fromSeptember2020toMarch2021,boostedbyrapideconomicrecovery

inChinaandotheremergingeconomies.Inaddition,relativelyhigheroilprices

andtheglobaleconomy'srecoveryfromthepandemictripledglobalfreightcosts,

raisingthepriceofChinesemodulesexportedaroundtheworld.

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IndexedpricesforsolarPVmodule,silicon,glassandothercommodities,2020-2021

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