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Off-GridSolarMarketTrendsReport2022:StateoftheSector

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Off-GridSolarMarketTrendsReport2022:

StateoftheSector

1

©Baobab+

Foreword

ThepreviouseditionofourOff-GridSolarMarketTrendsReport(MTR)waslaunchedattheGlobalOff-GridSolarForum&ExpoinNairobi,KenyainFebruary2020.TheCOVID-19pandemicwasdeclaredonlyonemonthlater,andwithinafewweeks,muchoftheworldwentintolockdown.

Beforethepandemic,theoff-gridsolar(OGS)industrywasexperiencingdouble-digitgrowth.Overadecadeofinnovationandinvestmenthascreatedastrongcoreofproductsthathavereachedmaturity,fromsolarenergykitstoproductiveuseappliances.Thesetechnologieshavebeenembracedgloballyasessentialtoolsinthefighttoeliminateenergypovertyandachieveafaster,moreequitablecleanenergytransition.

However,theCOVID-19pandemichaspresentedmajorchallengesfortheindustryandsocietyasawhole.Millionsofpeoplewerepushed,orpushedfurther,intopovertyduetofallingincomes,highercostofliving,andsupplychaindisruptions.Off-gridsolarcompanieswereconfrontedwithpriceincreasesforrawmaterialsandreducedincomesoftheir–oftenruralandrelativelypoor–customerbase.Safetyprecautionsmadeitdifficulttoconnectwithcustomersandpartners,andinvestmentwasmoredifficulttoaccessformanycompanies.

Thepandemichashadaconsiderableadverseimpactonmarkets,buttheindustryhasalsoshownresilience.Manygovernmentsdeclaredoff-gridsolaranessentialservice,allowingcompaniestooperateevenduringstrictlockdowns.Despitehardship,manycustomersprioritizedenergyspending,demonstratingtheimportanceofelectricityaccessandthebenefitsthatOGSproductsprovide.

Asthepandemicabatesandlockdownsaremostlylifted,theindustryisshowingearlysignsofarecovery.Salesnumbersareincreasingagain,companiesareexpandingtheirservicesbeyondenergy,and2021recordedanall-timehighof$457millioninvestment,with2022settobeanotherrecord-breakingyear.Newtechnologysegmentsareemergingthatintegratelowvoltagepowerandappliancestostrengthenthegrid,andthereisgrowingsupportfromgovernmentsanddonorstoensurethatnooneisleftbehind.

Afteraperiodofunprecedentedshocks,the2022MTRprovidesin-depthinsightintothelatestkeymarketdynamicsandtrends.Thereportis,forthefirsttime,splitintotwoparts.Thisfirstreportfocusesonthecurrent‘StateoftheSector’,whilethesecondreport,tobepublishedinOctober2022,willprovidean‘Outlookto2030’.Wehopethatthiswillimprovereadabilityandmakeiteasierandmorerewardingforreaderstoengagewiththecontent.

Thepastfewyearshavebeenextremelychallenging.However,thevisionandcommitmentofmanyhasstrengthenedtheoff-gridsolarindustryanditsfoundations,showninnovationandentrepreneurship,andthesectorhasbecomefurtherrecognizedforitsvitalroleinachievingacleanerandmoreequitableenergytransition.

GabrielaElizondoAzuela

WorldBank/ESMAP

PeterCashion

InternationalFinance

Corporation

SamGrant

EfficiencyforAccess

KoenPeters

GOGLA

3

Contents

1

2

3

4

Foreword 3

Acknowledgments 6

Abbreviations&keydefinitions 7

Abbreviations 7

Keydefinitions 7

Figures 9

Tables 11

Boxes 11

HeadlineTrends 12

Introduction 14

Scope 15

TheOff-GridSolarEnergyKit&EfficientApplianceMarket 16

2.1TheGlobalElectrificationOpportunityandChallenges 17

2.2GlobalOGSMarketTrends 27

2.2.1GlobalSolarEnergyKitSalesVolumesandMarketTurnover 29

2.2.2GlobalApplianceSalesVolumeandMarketTurnover 31

2.3InsightsfromtheAffiliateOGSMarket 34

2.3.1SolarEnergyKitsAffiliateMarketTrends 34

2.3.2ApplianceAffiliateMarketTrends 40

2.4GlobalOGSProductPricingTrends 42

2.4.1GlobalSolarEnergyKitPricingTrends 42

2.4.2GlobalAppliancePricingTrends 46

TheSocioeconomicandEnvironmentalImpactoftheOGSIndustry 50

3.1TheImpactofOGSonEnergyAccess 51

3.2TheImpactofOGSontheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs) 55

3.2.1PoweringHealthcare 57

3.2.2OGS,FoodSecurityandtheUkraineCrisis 58

3.2.3OGSandClimateChange:Mitigation,AdaptationandResilience 58

3.2.4CleanEnergyJobs,EnterpriseandIncomeGeneration 61

CustomerProfilesandEngagementStrategies 62

4.1TheOff-GridSolarCustomer 63

4.2CustomerSegmentationandTargeting 65

4.3MarketingandCustomerAcquisition 67

4.4TheRoleofProgramsinDrivingCustomerAwarenessandImpact 72

4

Off-GridSolarMarketTrendsReport2022:StateoftheSector

5

6

7

8

9

MarketLandscape 74

5.1MarketClassification 75

5.2.MarketCompetition

8

3

5.2.1:SolarEnergyKitsMarketCompetition 83

5.2.2:PUEAppliancesMarketCompetition 86

5.3CompanyPerformanceandProfitability 88

5.4KeyTrendsandInnovationsAffectingCompetitionintheSector 96

TechnologicalInnovations 102

6.1DevelopmentsintheCoreOGSTechnology 103

6.2DigitalInnovationsandtheRiseofPAYGoTechnology 106

6.3Off-gridApplianceandProductiveUseTechnologyandMarketMaturity 108

6.4DistributedSolarandStorageTechnologieswithEfficientAppliances

toStrengthentheWeakGrid 113

EnablingEnvironment 118

7.1OGSintheInternationalAgenda 119

7.2StatusofIntegratedElectrificationPlans 120

7.3SectorDevelopmentandSupportPrograms 124

7.4FiscalIncentives 126

7.5IndustryRegulations 127

7.6QualityStandards 128

7.7SupplyChain,LocalManufacturingandAssembly 130

FundingFlows 132

8.1InvestmentFlows 133

8.2.AdditionalRevenueStreams 139

8.2.1Subsidies 1

40

8.2.2ClimateMitigationFinancing 142

8.3SourcesofCapital 143

8.3.1CapitalProviderTrends 143

8.3.2InvestorConfidence 145

8.4RegionalTrends 146

Annexes 148

Annex1-DefinitionsofKeyHouseholdProductSegments 149

Annex2-DefinitionsofKeyHouseholdandProductiveUseApplianceSegments 150

Annex3-CompanyTypology 152

Annex4-AffordabilityMethodology 153

Annex5-MethodologyforEstimatingGlobalOGSMarketValueandSalesVolumes 154

Annex6-Affiliatevs.Non-affiliateLiveProductsDistributionperCountry 156

Annex7-MethodologyforEstimatingthePUEDemandPotentialofSub-SaharanAfrica 157

Annex8-MethodologyforEstimatingthePUEDemandPotentialOfIndia 158

5

Acknowledgments

Theauthorswouldliketothankthosewhogenerouslycontributedtheirtimeintheconsultationsthathaveinformedthisreport.

ESMAP/WorldBank:GabrielaAzuela,SameerShukla,DanaRysankova,JohannaGalan,SubrataBarman,MariaArango,

ThomasFlochel,BonsukKoo,LucieBlyth,JenniferLynch,RaihanElahi

InternationalFinanceCorporation:BillGallery

EfficiencyforAccessCoalition:MakenaIreri,LeoBlyth,JennyCorry,ElisaLai

GOGLA:SusieWheeldon,SjefKetelaars,DrewCorbyn,LauraFortes,OliverReynolds,CollinGumbu,PatrickTonui,RebeccaRhodes,TimonaChore,KoenPeters,AlettaD’cruz,EvaRoig

OpenCapitalAdvisors:AndreasZeller,DudaSlawek,HarryMasters,TravisKotecco,HannaDohrenbusch,StephanieOnchwati,CharleneNjau,LindaKarimi

Othercontributors:EdDay(GreencroftEconomics),SanjoySanyal(RegainParadise)

LightingGlobalistheWorldBankGroup’sinitiativetorapidlyincreaseaccesstooff-gridsolarenergyforthe733millionpeoplelivingwithoutelectricityworld-wide.ManagedbytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP),weworkwithgovernments,theprivatesector,developmentpartners,andend-users,continuallyinnovatingtounlockkeymarketbarriersandenableaccessandaffordabilitytothosethatwouldotherwisebeleftbehind.Oursupporthasexpandedtotechnologiesthatgofarbeyondlighting,includingsystemstopowertheneedsofhouseholds,businesses,schools,andhealthcenters.WeoperatewithfundinggratefullyacknowledgedfromESMAPandtheirdonors.Formoreinformation,pleasevisit

IFC—amemberoftheWorldBankGroup—isthelargestglobaldevelopmentinstitutionfocusedontheprivatesectorinemergingmarkets.Weworkinmorethan100countries,usingourcapital,expertise,andinfluencetocreatemarketsandopportunitiesindevelopingcountries.Infiscalyear2021,IFCcommittedarecord$31.5billiontoprivatecompaniesandfinancialinstitutionsindevelopingcountries,leveragingthepoweroftheprivatesectortoendextremepovertyandboostsharedprosperityaseconomiesgrapplewiththeimpactsoftheCOVID-19pandemic.Formoreinformation,visit

EfficiencyforAccessisaglobalcoalitionpromotingenergyefficiencyasapotentcatalystincleanenergyaccessefforts.Sinceitsfoundingin2015,EfficiencyforAccesshasgrownfromayear-longcalltoactionandcollaborativeeffortbyGlobalLEAPandSustainableEnergyforAlltoacoalitionof20donororganizations.Coalitionprogrammesaimtoscaleupmarketsandreducepricesforsuper-efficient,off-andweak-gridappropriateproducts,supporttechnologicalinnovation,andimprovesectorcoordination.CurrentEfficiencyforAccessCoalitionmemberslead12programmesandinitiativesspanningthreecontinents,62countries,and34keytechnologies.Formoreinformation,pleasesee

GOGLAistheglobalassociationfortheoff-gridsolarenergyindustry.Weareproudtochampiononeoftheworld’smostinnovativeandimpactfulsectors.Hundredsofmillionsofpeoplealreadybenefitfromaffordable,high-quality,cleanoff-gridsolarproductsandservices.Withtherightsupport,ourpioneeringindustrywillbeabletoscaleuprapidlytoimprovethelivesof1billionpeopleby2030.Tohelpmakethishappen,wepromote,safeguard,andconvenetheindustry,advocatingforenablingpoliciesandincreasedinvestmentaswellassupportingour200+memberswitheffectiveservices.Tofindoutmore,visit

OpenCapitalAdvisorsisamanagementconsultingandfinancialadvisoryfirmthatdrivesgrowth,enablesinvestment,andbuildsmarketsacrossAfrica.Wehelpbusinesses,investors,developmentpartners,andthepublicsectortoidentifyopportunitiesanddeliverunique,impactfulsolutions.OurmissionistoadvanceAfricaneconomiesandbuildfuturegenerationsofbusinessleaders.Since2010,wehavecompletedover1000engagementsacross25countriesinsub-SaharanAfricaandraisedover$1billionincapitalforimpactfulbusinessesacrossthecontinent.Ourlocallybasedteamofover150full-timestaffbringsexperiencefromtheworld’stopconsultancies,privateequityfirms,investmentbanks,anddevelopmentorganizations.Formoreinformation,pleasevisit

6

Off-GridSolarMarketTrendsReport2022:StateoftheSector

Terms

Abbreviations&keydefinitions

Abbreviations

AC

Alternatecurrent

OEM

Originalequipmentmanufacturer

ATL

Abovetheline

OGS

Off-gridsolar

B2B

Business-to-business

PAYGo

Pay-as-you-go

B2C

Business-to-consumer

PnP

Plugandplay

BoP

Bottomofthepyramid

PUE

Productiveuseofenergy

BTL

Belowtheline

PV

Photovoltaic

CAGR

Compoundannualgrowthrate

QV

Quality-verified

CO2e

Carbondioxideequivalent

RBF

Results-basedfinancing

DC

Directcurrent

RU

Refrigerationunit

EUS

End-usersubsidy

R&D

Researchanddevelopment

FCV

Fragility,conflict,andviolence

SDG7

SustainableDevelopmentGoal7

IEP

Integratedelectrificationplan

SEA

SoutheastAsia

IoT

Internetofthings

SEK

Solarenergykit

LVSP&A

Lowvoltagesmartpower&appliances

SHS

Solarhomesystem

LMD

Lastmiledistributor

SSA

Sub-SaharanAfrica

MFI

Microfinanceinstitution

SWP

Solarwaterpump

MLS

Multi-lightsystem

$

UnitedStatesDollars

MSME

Micro,smallandmediumenterprises

VAT

Valueaddedtax

MTF

Multi-tierframework

W

Watt

MTR

Markettrendsreport

Wp

Watt-peak

Keydefinitions

Definitions

Off-gridsolarproductsincludebothsolarenergykitsandoff-gridsolarappliancesandthistermisusedinthereporttodescribethebreadthoftechnologiesthatitcovers.Seedefinitionsbelow.

Off-gridsolarproducts

Theseincludesolarlanterns,multi-lightkitsandsolarhomesystems(SHS).

Solarenergykits(SEKs)

•Solarlanternsaretypicallypackagedasasimple,one-lightlanternwithoneLEDlight,anembedded0.5–3.0Watt-peak(Wp)solarpanel,andaninternalrechargeablelithium-ion(Li-ion)battery.SomemodelsincludeUSBchargingformobilephones.

•Multi-lightsystemsincludeuptothreeorfourLEDlightswithastandalonesolarpanelratedupto10WpandarechargeableLi-ionbatterywithmostmodelsincludingUSBchargingformobilephones.

•Solarhomesystems(SHS)haveasolarpanelratedfrom11Wptousuallyupto350Wpandprovidemultipleelectricityfunctions,suchaslightingandpoweringawiderangeofappliancessuchasTVsandfans.SHSareofferedplug-and-play(PnP)orbasedonopen-marketcomponents.Inthisreport,SHSreferstobothplug-and-playandcomponent-basedsystemsunlessspecified.

7

Terms

Offgridsolarappliances

Definitions

Theseincludesolar-poweredapplianceswhichareenergy-efficientandpoweredbydirectcurrent(DC),andincludebothhousehold/smallbusinessappliancesandproductiveuseofenergy(PUE)appliances

•Householdandsmallbusinessappliancesaretypicallyusedwithinahomeandincludetelevisions,fans,refrigeratorsandradios.Insomecasestheseproductsareusedinsmallbusinesses,suchasrefrigeratorsinashop.Note:asignificantmajorityofsolar-poweredTVsandaproportionoffansaretypicallysoldbundledwithSHSespeciallyinsub-SaharanAfrica.

•Productiveuseofenergy(PUE)appliancesareappliancesthatleveragesolarenergytoenableimprovedornewincomegeneratingactivities,ofteninagriculture.Theseproductsincludesolarwaterpumps,refrigerators/coldroomsoragro-processingequipment.

Accesstoelectricity:

TheMulti-Tier

Framework(MTF)

TheMTF,developedbyESMAP,representsanefforttobuildglobal,aggregablemetricsandadatabaseforevaluatingelectricityaccessinanon-binaryfashion,measuringthequalityofaccessratherthanmerelyaccesstoanysourceofelectricity.DevelopedinthecontextoftheSustainableEnergyforAll(SEforALL)initiative,theMTFisbeingusedasamorenuancedmeasureofprogresstowardsSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(SDG7),complementarytothebinarymethodologycapturedintheTrackingSDG7reportwrittenbymajordevelopmentstakeholders.

TheMTFredefinesenergyaccesstoamulti-dimensionaldefinitionas‘theabilitytoavailenergythatisadequate,availablewhenneeded,reliable,ofgoodquality,convenient,affordable,legal,healthyandsafeforallrequiredenergyservices.’Thatis,havinganelectricityconnectiondoesnotnecessarilyimplyhavingaccesstoelectricityunderthenewdefinition,whichconsidersadditionalaspects,suchasreliabilityandaffordability.Energyaccessismeasuredonatieredspectrum,fromTier0(noaccess)toTier5(thehighestlevelofaccess).

Rural

Encompassesallpopulation,housing,andterritorynotincludedwithinanurbanarea.

Urban

Encompassesallpopulation,housing,andterritoryincludedwithinanurbanarea.

Unconnectedhouseholds

Householdsthatarenotconnectedtonationalgrids.

‘Underthegrid’households

Householdsthatareneartobutnotconnectedtonationalgrids.Evenwhereagridconnectionisnearbyandaconnectionwouldbetechnicallyrealistic,householdsmaychoosenottoconnectbecauseofaffordabilityconstraints(eitherhighconnectioncoststothegridorhightariffstoconsumefromthegrid,orboth)andpoorreliabilityofservice.

Householdswith

unreliable/weakgrid

Thesehouseholdsfacefrequentorlengthyoutagesofgridelectricityorexperiencevoltagefluctuationsthatcandamageelectricalappliances.

Householdsconnectedtoreliablegrid

Thesehouseholdsrarelyorneverfaceoutagesofgridelectricityanddonotexperiencevoltagefluctuationsthatcoulddamageelectricalappliances.

Potentialmarket

Theoverallmarketofpeople(householdsandmicroenterprises)thateitherlackaccesstoanelectricityconnection(off-grid)orhaveapoor-qualityelectricityconnection(unreliable-grid),formingthetotalpotentialcustomerbaseforOGSdevices.ThisestimateincludescustomersthatcurrentlyuseOGSdevices,astheyrepresentacontinuedmarketforadditionalsales,replacements,andupgrades.

Addressablemarket

TheshareofthepotentialmarketthatcanbeaddressedbycurrentOGSbusinessmodels.Thisreportanalyzestheaffordabilityofdevicesagainstthepotentialmarkettoarriveatanestimatefortheaddressablemarket.

Pay-as-you-go(PAYGo)

PAYGobusinessmodelsallowuserstopayfortheirproductsviatechnology-enabled,embeddedconsumerfinancing.APAYGocompanywilltypicallyofferasolarproduct(typicallysolarhomesystemsandmulti-lightkits)forwhichacustomermakesadownpayment,followedbyregularpaymentsforatermrangingfromsixmonthstoeightyears.Paymentsareusuallymadeviamobilemoney,thoughalternativemethodsincludescratchcards,mobileairtime,andcash.

8

Off-GridSolarMarketTrendsReport2022:StateoftheSector

Definitions

Terms

Quality-Verified

‘Quality-Verified’productsmeetVeraSolQualityStandards,whichimplementminimumrequirementsforoff-gridlightingproductquality,durability,truth-in-advertising,warranty,andlumenmaintenance.VeraSoloffersQualityStandardsforbothsolarlanternsandmulti-lightsystemsandSHSupto350W,andcomplianceisrequiredtoparticipateinVeraSolsupportprograms.QualityStandardsareonecomponentoftheVeraSolQualityAssurance(QA)Program.TheInternationalElectrotechnicalCommission(IEC)hasadoptedtheVeraSoltestingmethodsasTechnicalSpecification62257-9-5.Formoreinformation,pleasevisitVeraS

Affiliate

Affiliatecompaniesareconnectedtoanyofthepartnerorganizationsinvolvedinthesemi-annualGOGLAsalesdatareportingprocess.ThismatrixofcompaniesincludesGOGLAmembers,companiessellingproductsthatmeetVeraSolqualitystandards,andappliancecompaniesthatparticipatedintheGlobalLEAPAwardsorareengagingwiththeLowEnergyInclusiveAppliances(LEIA)program.

ItisimportanttonotethatnotallproductsproducedbyaffiliatecompaniesmeetVeraSolqualitystandards,butstakeholdersassumethatallproductsaffiliatecompaniesproduceareofreasonablydecentquality.

Non-affiliate

Companiesthatarenotwithinthematrixofaffiliatecompaniesareconsiderednon-affiliatecompanies.Productsdistributedbynon-affiliatecompaniesareconsiderednon-affiliateproducts.ThesecompaniesdonotreporttheirsalestoGOGLA,andmuchlessisknownaboutthequalityandlevelofTieraccesstheirproductsprovide.

Figures

Figure1:Trackingtheelectricityaccessgapovertime p.

18

Figure2:Electricityaccessdeficitbycountry p.

19

Figure3:Percentagepointimprovementinelectricityaccessbycountrybetween2015and2020 p.

19

Figure4:Estimatedroleofoff-gridsolarinleastcostelectrification p.

20

Figure5:Affordabilityofoff-gridsolartechnologies-‘conservative’forthebottomofthepyramid p.

21

Figure6:Affordabilityofoff-gridsolartechnologies-basedonnationwideabilitytopayprofiles p.

22

Figure7:Changeinproportionofhouseholdswithelectricitymost/allofthetime(2016-21) p.

23

Figure8:PotentialmarketforOGStechnologiesasprimarysourceofelectricityoralongsideaweakgrid p.

24

Figure9:OfhouseholdsusinganOGSsystem,shareusingitasasecondarysourceofelectricityalongside

e.g.agridconnection p.

25

Figure10:EstimatedtotalpotentialandaddressablemarketforcoldstorageinmillionsofSHFsinSSA p.

26

Figure11:EstimatedtotalpotentialandaddressablemarketforcoldstorageinmillionsofSHFsinIndia p.

26

Figure12:EstimatedtotalpotentialandaddressablemarketforsolarwaterpumpsinmillionsofSHFsinSSA p.

27

Figure13:EstimatedtotalpotentialandaddressablemarketforsolarwaterpumpsinmillionsofSHFsinIndiap p.

27

Figure14:Estimatedoff-gridsolarenergykitandappliancemarketturnover,annual(2021) p.

28

Figure15:Affiliateversusnon-affiliateshareofglobalsalesvolume&marketturnover p.

29

Figure16:Affiliateversusnon-affiliatemarketshareinNigeria,Malawi,andPapuaNewGuinea p.

29

Figure17:Globalannualsalesestimatesofsolarenergykits,includingaffiliateandnon-affiliatesales(2010-2021) p.