虚拟电厂真正的好处（英）

VirtualPowerPlants,

Howaggregatingdistributedenergyresources

RealBenefitscanbenefitcommunities,society,andthegrid

Report/January2023

AuthorsandAcknowledgments

Authors

KevinBrehm

MarkDyson

AveryMcEvoy

ConnorUsry

Authorslistedalphabetically.AllauthorsfromRMIunlessotherwisenoted.

Contacts

KevinBrehm,

kbrehm@

MarkDyson,

mdyson@

VP3Information,

vp3@

CopyrightsandCitation

KevinBrehm,AveryMcEvoy,ConnorUsry,andMarkDyson,VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits,RMI,2023,

/insight/virtual-power-plants-real-benefits/

.

RMIvaluescollaborationandaimstoacceleratetheenergytransitionthroughsharingknowledgeandinsights.Wethereforeallowinterestedpartiestoreference,share,andciteourworkthroughtheCreativeCommonsCCBY-SA4.0license.

/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

.

AllimagesusedarefromiSunlessotherwisenoted.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits2

AboutVP3

VirtualPowerPlantPartnership,orVP3,isacoalitionofnonprofitandindustryvoicesthatseekstoshiftthenecessarypolicies,regulations,andmarketrulestounlockthemarketforvirtualpowerplants(VPPs).Ourmembersspanhardwareandsoftwaretechnologysolutionproviders,distributedenergyresources(DER)aggregators,nonprofits,andothers.

ArobustVPPmarketexpandsthepossibilitiesforallDERs—empoweringhouseholds,businesses,andcommunitiestoplayaroleintheenergytransitionalongsidetechnologysolutionproviders.Learnmoreat

vp3.io

.

AboutRMI

RMIisanindependentnonprofitfoundedin1982thattransformsglobalenergysystemsthroughmarket-drivensolutionstoalignwitha1.5°Cfutureandsecureaclean,prosperous,zero-carbonfutureforall.Weworkintheworld’smostcriticalgeographiesandengagebusinesses,policymakers,communities,andNGOstoidentifyandscaleenergysysteminterventionsthatwillcutgreenhousegasemissionsatleast50percentby2030.RMIhasofficesinBasaltandBoulder,Colorado;NewYorkCity;Oakland,California;Washington,D.C.;andBeijing.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits3

TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary

5

VirtualPowerPlants:AnOverlookedResource

6

UnderstandingVPPs

8

WhatIsaVPP?

8

HowDoVPPsWork?

9

HowAreVPPsDifferentthanOtherDemand-SideSolutions?

12

HowVPPsCanAddressKeyGridChallenges

13

Reliability

13

Affordability

15

Decarbonization

16

Electrification

17

Health,Equity,andConsumerEmpowerment

17

UnlockingtheVPPOpportunity

18

BarrierstoScalingVPPs

18

InterventionstoScaleaVibrantVPPMarket

20

Appendix

21

PeakCoincidentVPPCapacityMethodology

21

Endnotes

22

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits4

RMI’snewcoalition

ToacceleratethegrowthoftheVPPmarketanddeliverthereliability,affordability,andclimatebenefitsofVPPsatscale,RMIislaunchingtheVirtualPowerPlantPartnership(VP3):acoalitionofnonprofitandindustryvoicesdedicatedtogrowingavibrantVPPmarket.VP3willpublishtechnicalresources,providedirectsupportinkeyvenues,conveneacrossstakeholders,andcommunicatetotargetedandmass-marketaudiencestoraiseawarenessoftheVPPopportunity.Formoreinformation,pleasecontact

vp3@

.

ExecutiveSummary

Virtualpowerplants(VPPs)—grid-integratedaggregationsofdistributedenergyresources—areprovidingbenefitstohouseholds,businesses,andsocietytoday.Moreover,theyareonthecuspofsignificantmarketgrowthduetorecentfederallegislationandtheongoingtechnology-andmarket-driventransformationof

theelectricitygrid.

•By2030,VPPscouldreducepeakdemandintheUnitedStatesby60gigawatts(GW).Thatnumbercouldgrowto

morethan200GWby2050.Byavoidinggenerationbuild-

out,decreasingwholesaleenergycosts,andavoidingor

deferringtransmissionanddistributioninvestments,VPPs

canhelpreduceannualpowersectorexpenditureby

$17billionin2030.

•VPPsarealsoakeyresourcetomeetclimategoals—VPPs

canreducegreenhousegasemissionsbydecreasing

relianceonthemostpollutingfossilfuel–firedpowerplants,

incentivizingbuild-outofcleangeneration,andenabling

economy-wideelectrification.

•ToaccessthefullbenefitsofVPPs,thereremainsaneedtounderstandandcommunicateVPPbenefits,advancebestpractices,andshiftpolicyandregulationtoputVPPsonalevelplayingfieldwithtraditionalgridinvestments.

•ThenextfewyearsareacriticalwindowforVPPmarketdevelopment.CoordinatedandcollectiveactionoverthistimecansettheVPPmarketonapathtodeliveringlong-termbenefits.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits5

VirtualPowerPlants:

AnOverlookedResource

ThecomingdecadewillbeaperiodofrapidchangefortheUSelectricgrid.Policy,climatechange,geopolitics,andconsumerpreferenceswillpushthegridtoevolveatunprecedentedspeeds.Gridplanners,regulators,andoperatorshavethechallengeofmanagingthesechangeswhilesimultaneouslyadvancingpowersystemperformanceacrosssevenobjectives:

1 2 3 4 5 6

7

Reliability:increasingsystemreliabilityandresilience

evenasextremeweatherandcybersecuritythreatsincrease

Affordability:drivingdownhouseholdenergyburdenintheface

ofrisinginflationandglobalenergysupplychaindisruption

Decarbonization:reducinggreenhousegasemissions

tomeetnational,state,andcorporateclimatetargets

Electrification:enablingrapidelectrificationofhomes,transportation,andindustrytoreduceeconomy-wideemissionsandavoidtheworstimpactsofclimatechange

Health:reducingoreliminatingearlydeathsandother

healthdamagesresultingfrompowerplantpollution

Equity:addressinginequitablehealthandcommunity

impactsembeddedinthecurrentenergysystem

Consumerempowerment:providingenergyconsumerschoice

andavoiceinshapingthepowersysteminwhichtheyparticipate

Virtualpowerplants(VPPs)—grid-integratedaggregationsofdistributedenergyresources—arearesourcetohelpadvanceperformanceacrosseachoftheseobjectivesinthecomingyears.

Unfortunately,VPPsareoftenoverlookedbypolicymakers,utilities,andconsumers.ThisbriefdefinesVPPsinthecontextofemergingchallengesandopportunities,discussestheirbenefits,andprovidesasetofrecommendationsforgrowingtheVPPmarketinwaysthathelpcommunitiesandsociety.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits6

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits7

VPPsarenotnew.ThispaperdrawsondatafromadecadeofsuccessfulVPPpilotsandprogramstodemonstratehowVPPshelpthegridmeetpressingchallenges.ThispaperalsosummarizespowersystemmodelingtoshowVPPscangrowinscaleandimpact—withthepotentialtooffsetorprovide14%ofUS

peakelectricpowerdemandin2050.1

AlthoughVPPsarenotnew,theyareataninflectionpoint.Consumeradoptionofflexibledevicessuchasheatpumps,electricvehicles(EVs),andbatterystorageisacceleratingjustastheInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsActandInflationReductionActwillpumpbillionsofdollarsintotheelectricgrid.Atthesametime,regulatorsandutilitiesarelookingforshort-andlong-termsolutionstoreliabilityandaffordabilitychallenges.

Overthenextdecade,VPPscould

playacentralroleinmeetinggridandsocietal

needs.However,barriersrelatedtowholesale

marketvalue,retailofferings,andconsumer

awarenessmustbeaddressedtounlock

thefullpotentialofVPPs.

Overthenextdecade,VPPscouldplayacentralroleinmeetinggridandsocietalneeds.However,barriersrelatedtowholesalemarketvalue,retailofferings,andconsumerawarenessmustbeaddressedtounlockthefullpotentialofVPPs.PlanningandpolicychoicesoverthecomingyearswillsetthepathforVPPmarketdevelopmentoverthecomingdecade.

UnderstandingVPPs

WhatIsaVirtualPowerPlant?

Wedefinevirtualpowerplants(VPPs)asgrid-integratedaggregationsofdistributedenergyresources.Therearethreekeypartstothatdefinition:

•Distributedenergyresources(DERs):Atitscore,aVPPiscomprisedofhundredsorthousandsofdeviceslocatedatornearhomesandbusinesses.Someoftheseassets(e.g.,behind-the-meterbatteries)arereadilydispatchable.Otherassets(e.g.,solarphotovoltaic[PV],orpassiveenergyefficiencyinvestments)arelesslikelytobeflexiblydispatchedbutstillcanbeaggregatedandprovidevaluetothegrid.

•Aggregation:AVPPbringstheseDERassetstogetherintoaggregations.Insomeinstances,theseaggregationscanbecollectivelyanddirectlycontrolledbyagridoperator.Atothertimes,theaggregationismuchlooser,withlessdirectcontrolbyagridoperator.

•Grid-integrated:Finally,VPPsprovidevaluetothegrid,andtheyarecompensatedforthevaluetheyprovide.Properlyintegratedintolong-termgridplanningandreal-timeoperationsprocessesand/ormarkets,VPPscanaddvaluealongsideother,traditionalgridassetslikelarge-scalegeneratingfacilities.

Exhibit1(nextpage)showspossiblecomponentsofaVPP.VPPscanincludeEVsandchargers;heatpumps;homeappliances;heating,ventilating,andairconditioning(HVAC)equipment;batteries;plugloads;solarPV;orindustrialmechanicalequipment.Single-familyhomes,multifamilyhomes,offices,stores,factories,cars,trucks,andbusescanallparticipateinaVPP.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits8

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits9

Thermostats

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Transmission

Exhibit1VPPsAggregateDistributed,Grid-InteractiveElectricDevices

Generation

VPPAggregator

Roolop

solar

Battery

storage

Heatpumps

Dishwashers

Washers

&dryers

DispatchedchargingofEVs

Dispatched

vehicle-to-grid

charging

Distribution

Transportation

Plugloads

HVACloads

Mechanical

equipment

Roolop

solar

Battery

storage

HowDoVPPsWork?

ThereisnostandarddesignforaVPP.Broadly,however,therearetwochannelsthroughwhichVPPscanprovidevalueandbecompensated:

1.Market-participantVPPsprovideservicestoandarecompensatedbywholesaleelectricitymarkets.

2.RetailVPPsprovideservicestoandarecompensatedbyutilities.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits10

Exhibit2

Market-participantVPP

OhmConnectoperatesamarket-participantVPPinCalifornia’swholesaleelectricitymarket.OhmConnect’sVPPiscomprisedofmorethan200,000memberswith250,000dispatchablesmartdevices.2

DuringanextremeheatwavethatlastedfromAugust31toSeptember8,2022,California’swholesalemarketoperator,CaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO),calledonallavailableresourcestomatchsupplyanddemand.TheseresourcesincludedVPPsmanagedbyOhmConnect,Tesla,Sunrun,LeapVoltus,AutoGrid,andothers.3

Overthenine-dayheatwave,OhmConnect’sVPPautomaticallydispatchedmemberdevices1.3milliontimesinresponsetoreal-timesignalsfromCAISO.CAISOpaidOhmConnectforservicesdelivered.

OhmConnectinturnpaid$2.7millioninrewardstoitsmembers.4

Exhibit2illustrateshowamarket-participantVPPworks.

AMarket-ParticipantVPPCallsonCustomer-SitedDevices

toProvideServicestoWholesaleElectricityMarkets

Commitments&

Communications

Marketoperatorsendspricesignalfor:

•Capacity

•Energy

•Ancillaryservices

Aggregatorenrollshouseholdsand

businesses(members).Aggregator

dispatchesdevicesorcommunicates

withmemberstodispatchdevices.

Customer-siteddevicesprovidecapacity,energy,and

ancillaryservicestomarket

VPPService

Delivery

WholesaleMarketVPPAggregatorVPPMembers

Operator(i.e.,RTO,ISO)

Payment

Marketoperatorpaysfor

servicesprovided

Aggregatorpaysmembers:

•Sign-upbonuses

•Annualpayments

•Directrewards

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits11

Exhibit3

RetailVPP

NationalGrid’sConnectedSolutionsisanexampleofaretailVPP.

IntheConnectedSolutionsprogram,NationalGrid—anelectricutilityservingcustomersinNewYorkandMassachusetts—payscustomersbothupfrontandannualincentivestoenrolltheirsmartthermostats,homebatteries,andEVsintheVPPprogram.NationalGriddispatchesthesedevicestobalancesummerpeakdemand.

In2020,theVPPhelpedreducesummerpeakdemandby0.9%.5ThishelpsNationalGridavoidcostsitwouldotherwiseneedtospendonwholesalepowercosts,transmissionanddistributioninfrastructureupgrades,fuel,andotherexpenditures.

Exhibit3illustratesaretailVPP.

ARetailVPPCanHelpaUtilityMeetDemandandReduceCostsforBoththeUtilityandItsRatepayers

Commitments&

Communications

VPPService

Delivery

Payment

ElectricUtility

Utility*enrollscustomersinVPPprogramUtility*dispatchesdevicesorcommunicateswithcustomerstodispatchdevices

Utility*dispatchesVPPstomeetsystemneeds:

•Resourceadequacy

•Deferral/avoidanceofupgrades

•Reducedfueluse/CO2emissions

Utilitypayscustomerforrighttomanagedevices:

•Sign-upbonuses

•Annualpayments

•Otherpayments

*Utilitymaypartnerwiththird-partyserviceprovider

UtilityCustomers

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits12

Aspecific,butimportant,categoryofretailVPPisaVPPinwhichaggregationsofDERsrespond,eitheractivelyorpassively,toratedesignssetbypowerproviders—usuallyretailutilitiesorload-servingentities,butinsomecaseswholesalemarketoperators.Intheexamplesabove,OhmConnectandNationalGridactivelyaggregatedhouseholdsandbusinessesintoVPPsandhavetechnologytodirectlycontroldevices’operations.Incontrast,tariffs(rates)paidbyelectriccustomerscanalsoinduceDERbuild-outanddemandflexibility.Theseincludetime-of-usepricing,real-timepricing,criticalpeakpricing,andparticipationincentives,whichallcanachievesomelevelofdemandflexibilitybutdifferintheirlevelofresponsivenessandabilitytodynamicallyadjustincentivesinrealtime.

HowAreVPPsDifferentthanOtherDemand-SideSolutions?

OurdefinitionofVPPsisintentionallybroad.ItencompassesawiderangeofsolutionsthatharnessandcompensateDERstomeettheneedsofthegrid.Demandresponse,demandflexibility,demand-sidemanagement,DERaggregations,bring-your-own-deviceprograms,andgrid-interactiveefficientbuildingsareallexamplesofprogramsandtechnologiesthatcancontributetoVPPs.

VPPsbuildonthesuccessofdecadesofprogressindemand-sidemanagementprogramsandparticipationmodelsforDERs.Giventhecurrentlandscapeofrapidlyshiftingtechnologyandemergentchallengestoreliability,affordability,andotherpriorities,weuseabroaddefinitionofVPPstocharacterizehow,withrenewedattentionandtargetedinterventions,aggregateddemand-sideresourcesandprogramscanaddressthesechallengesatascalerarelycontemplatedinpreviousdecades.

Thoughourdefinitionisbroad,notallprogramsthatshapecustomerbehaviorareVPPs.Forexample,callsforvoluntaryconservationinatimeofcrisisdonotcompensatecustomersforthebenefitstheyprovidetothegridandthusdonottransactvalueinthesamewayascommerciallyviableVPPs.

HowVPPsCanAddress

KeyGridChallenges

VPPsareapowerfultooltohelpregulators,utilityplannersoroperators,andothergridstakeholdersaddresskeychallengesfacingthegrid.ThissectionlooksbackwardtoseehowVPPshavealreadyprovidedvalue,aswellasforwardtoprojecthowVPPscanfurtheraddressgridchallengesinthecomingyearsanddecades,ifpoliciesandmarketsarestructuredtoenablethis.

Reliability

VPPsarekeysolutionstoenhancegridreliabilityandresilience

GridplannersandregulatorswanttoknowiftheycancountonVPPstoshowupduringthedays,hours,andminuteswhenthegridneedsthemmost.VPPsareshowingtheycanbetrustedtosupportgridreliability.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits13

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits14

EachyeartherearemoreexamplesofhowVPPshavecontributedtogridreliability.Afewaredescribedbelow:

•Sunrun’sVPPreducedmorethan1.8gigawatthours(GWh)ofenergydemandoverthesummerinISONewEngland.6

•ArizonaPublicService’sCoolRewardsProgramhasenrolled60,000thermostatsandhelpedshednearly100megawatts(MW)duringthehotsummermonthsin2022.7

•SouthAustralia’sVPPstabilizedthegridinOctober2019whenacoal-firedpowerplanttrippedofflineandleftasupplygapof748MW.8TheVPPhasalsoprovidedcriticalsupportduringNovember2019andJanuary2020griddisruptionsbetweenSouthAustraliaandVictoria.9

•VPPsmanagedbyAutoGrid’splatformcollectivelyrepresented5GWofcapacityand37GWhofenergyacross15countriesasofsummer2021.Theseassetsweredispatched1,500timestomeetgridneedsinsummer2021.10

TheseexamplesdemonstratehowVPPsareensuringreliableoperationofthebulkpowersystembyreducingdemandorinjectingpowerintothesystemduringtimesofcriticaldemand.VPPsalsoprovidethreereliability-relatedbenefitsthattraditionalpowerplantsdonot:

1.Rapidandflexibledeployment:Whereasafossilfuel–poweredthermalenergyplant(suchascoalorgas)needsonaverageoverfouryearstobedevelopedandbuilt,11someVPPscanbedevelopedinaslittleasmonths.Furthermore,whiletraditionalpowerplantinvestmentstieutilitiestoasingleassetfordecades,VPPscanbemoreflexiblyreconfiguredorscaledbackinresponsetochanginggridneeds.

2.Sitednearload:VPPscanbypasstransmissionordistributionconstraintsorcongestionbyprovidingcapacityclosetoload.

3.Communityenergyresilience:Solar,batteries,andEVscanparticipateinVPPswhenthegridisuporprovideresilientpowersupplytohomesandcriticalfacilitieswhenthegridisdown.Forexample,GeneralMotors,Ford,andothersarepilotingbidirectionalchargingprogramsinwhichEVsbecomebackuphomepowersources.12

Lookingforward,VPPscanplayalargeroleinsupportinggridreliabilityinthisdecadeandbeyond.

RMIanalysis(detailedintheAppendix)estimatesthatVPPscouldprovide62GWofpeakcoincidentdispatchablecapacityby2030.Thisiscomprisedof17GWflexibleEVload,10GWbehind-the-meterbatterystorage,20GWflexibleresidentialdemand,and15GWflexiblecommercialdemand.AnalysisfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLab(NREL)foundthatby2050,demandflexibilitycouldreducesystem-widepeakdemandbyroughly200GW.13,i

Exhibit4

PeakCoincidentVPPCapacity—2030

■ElectricVehicles(Light-Duty)■ResidentialDemandFlexibility■CommercialDemandFlexibility■Behind-the-MeterBatteryStorage

17.3GW19.8GW14.9GW9.9GW61.9GW

Source:SeeAppendix

i

Thisistheimpactofdemandflexibilityonamodeledpeakloadday.Itcorrespondstothehighelectrificationscenario,inwhichloadgrows81%by2050comparedwith2019.ThefigurefromNRELdoesnotincludebehind-the-meterstorage,distributedsolar,orenergyefficiency.

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits15

Affordability

electricityaffordability

VPPsareacost-effectiveresourcetoimprove

Theaveragepriceofelectricityis

projectedtoincrease7.5%in2022

comparedwith2021.14Thisisan

inconvenienceformanybutan

acutehardshipforthe30.6million

energy-burdenedhouseholdsinthe

UnitedStates—householdspaying

morethan6%oftheirgrossannual

householdincomeonenergybills.15

VPPscanmakeelectricitymore

affordablebothforcustomers

whoparticipateinVPPsandfor

homesandbusinessesthatdonot.

VPPsdirectlycompensate

participatinghouseholdsand

businessesthroughbillsavings,cashpayments,orrewardsprograms:

•OhmConnect’sCaliforniaVPP,whichincludes40%oftheirconsumersqualifyingaslowincome,savescustomersonaverage$250–$300peryear.16

•InSouthAustralia,customerssave$200peryearbyparticipatinginthestate’sVPP.17

VPPsalsohelpdrivedownbillsfornonparticipatingcustomersbyreducingthetotalcosttooperatetheelectricgrid.VPPsdothisinafewways:

1.Avoidordefergenerationcapacityinvestmentsbyreducingpeakdemand.

2.Avoidordeferdistributionandtransmissionsysteminvestmentsbyreducingpeakdemand.

3.Reducewholesaleenergyandfuelcostsbyshiftingdemandawayfromhigh-costpeakingresourcesandtowardlow-orno-marginalcostresources.Thisalsoprovidesdecarbonizationbenefits.

Lookingintothefuture,NREL’selectrificationfuturesstudyfoundthatdemandflexibilitycouldavoidordefer$120billion(netpresentvalue[NPV])worthofgenerationcapacityinvestmentsthrough2050.18,iiEfficientoperationcouldavoid$10billioninannualbulksystemfuelandmaintenancecostsin2050.19Thosestudiesdonotincludethepotentialimpactofdeferredoravoideddistributionsystemupgrades,whichfurtherincreasetheeconomicvalueofVPPs.

AccordingtoBrattleGroupanalysis,by2030,demandflexibilitycouldavoidgenerationcapacityworth$9.7billion,wholesaleenergycostsworth$4.8billion,ancillaryservicechargesworth$0.3billion,andtransmissionanddistributioncostsworth$1.9billion.20

ii2019–50NPVofbulksystemsavingsfromenhancedflexibilityascomparedwithcurrentflexibility(Murphyetal.2021).

VirtualPowerPlants,RealBenefits16

Decarbonization

VPPsacceleratepowersectordecarbonization

VPPscanhelpregulators,policymakers,businesses,andhouseholdsreduceCO2pollution.VPPsdothisinthreeways:

1.Decreasedispatchofhighlypollutingpower

plants:VPPscandirectlyimpactemissionsby

shiftingdemandawayfromtimeswhenthegrid

reliesonthemosthighlypollutingcoal-andgas-

firedpowerplantsandtowardtimeswhencarbon-

freeresourcesareavailable.Thisisthedirectand

near-termemissionsimpactofVPPs.

2.Drivebuild-outofcarbon-freepowersupply:

VPPsprovideflexibilityandcapacitythatwillbe

criticallyimportantinafuturecarbon-freepowersystem.Byshiftingdemand,VPPscanreducesolarandwindcurtailment.Thisenhancesthevalueofsolarandwindinaregionandcanindirectlyleadtomoresolarandwindbuild-outinthefuture.VPPsalsocanhelpavoidtheneedtobuildnewfossilfuel–firedpowerplantsandhelpaccelerateclosureofsomeexistingfossilfuel–firedplants.

3.Enableeconomy-wideelectrification:VPPscanfacilitateeconomy-wideelectrificationofotherenduses,furtherreducingeconomy-wideemissionsoutsidethepowersector.Thisisdiscussedinthenextsectiononelectrification.

VPPshavealreadyshownhowtheycanhelpenableretirementofsomefossilfuelpeakerplants:

•GreenMountainPower’sVPPattributedpartoftheretirementoftwodieselgeneratorswith4MWofpeakercapacitytotheabilitytocallonitsVPPparticipants’residentialhomebatterysystemswhilemaintainingsystem-rampingcapabilitiesandreliability.21

•TheCityofRedondoBeach,California,isworkingwithOhmConnecttodevelopacommunityVPP