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InvestmentinHumanCapital
TheodoreW.Schultz
TheAmericanEconomicReview,Vol.51,No.1(Mar.,1961),1-17.
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TheAmericanEconomicReview
VOLUMELIMARCH1961NUMBERONE
INVESTMENTINHUMANCAPITAL*
ByTHEODOREW.SCHULTZ
Althoughitisobviousthatpeopleacquireusefulskillsandknowl-edge,itisnotobviousthattheseskillsandknowledgeareaformofcapital,thatthiscapitalisinsubstantialpartaproductofdeliberateinvestment,thatithasgrowninWesternsocietiesatamuchfasterratethanconventional(nonhuman)capital,andthatitsgrowthmaywellbethemostdistinctivefeatureoftheeconomicsystem.Ithasbeenwidelyobservedthatincreasesinnationaloutputhavebeenlargecomparedwiththeincreasesofland,man-hours,andphysicalreproduciblecapi-tal.Investmentinhumancapitalisprobablythemajorexplanationforthisdifference.
Muchofwhatwecallconsumptionconstitutesinvestmentinhu-mancapital.Directexpendituresoneducation,health,andinternalmigrationtotakeadvantageofbetterjobopportunitiesareclearexam-ples.Earningsforegonebymaturestudentsattendingschoolandbyworkersacquiringon-the-jobtrainingareequallyclearexamples.Yet
nowheredotheseenterintoournationalaccounts.Theuseofleisuretimetoimproveskillsandknowledgeiswidespreadandittooisun-recorded.Intheseandsimilarwaysthequalityofhumaneffortcanbegreatlyimprovedanditsproductivityenhanced.Ishallcontendthatsuchinvestmentinhumancapitalaccountsformostoftheimpressiveriseintherealearningsperworker.
Ishallcomment,first,onthereasonswhyeconomistshaveshiedawayfromtheexplicitanalysisofinvestmentinhumancapital,andthen,onthecapacityofsuchinvestmenttoexplainmanyapuzzleabouteco-nomicgrowth.Mainly,however,Ishallconcentrateonthescopeandsubstanceofhumancapitalanditsformation.InclosingIshallcon-sidersomesocialandpolicyimplications.
*PresidentialAddressdeliveredattheSeventy-ThirdAnnualMeetingoftheAmerican
EconomicAssociation,SaintLouis,December28,1960.Theauthorisindebtedtohiscol-leagucsMiltonFriedman,forhisveryhelpfulsuggestionstogainclarityandcogency,and
HarryG.Johnsonforpointingoutanumberofambiguities.
Number62ofaseriesofphotographsofpastpresidentsoftheAssociation.
2THEAMERICANECONOMICREVIEW
I.ShyingAwayfromInvestmentinMan
Economistshavelongknownthatpeopleareanimportantpartofthewealthofnations.Measuredbywhatlaborcontributestooutput,theproductivecapacityofhumanbeingsisnowvastlylargerthanallotherformsofwealthtakentogether.Whateconomistshavenotstressedisthesimpletruththatpeopleinvestinthemselvesandthattheseinvest-mentsareverylarge.Althougheconomistsareseldomtimidinenteringonabstractanalysisandareoftenproudofbeingimpractical,theyhavenotbeenboldincomingtogripswiththisformofinvestment.Whenevertheycomeevenclose,theyproceedgingerlyasiftheyweresteppingintodeepwater.Nodoubttherearereasonsforbeingwary.Deep-seatedmoralandphilosophicalissuesareeverpresent.Freemenarefirstandforemosttheendtobeservedbyeconomicendeavor;theyarenotpropertyormarketableassets.Andnotleast,ithasbeenalltooconvenientinmarginalproductivityanalysistotreatlaborasifitwereauniquebundleofinnateabilitiesthatarewhollyfreeofcapital.
Themerethoughtofinvestmentinhumanbeingsisoffensivetosomeamongus.¹Ourvaluesandbeliefsinhibitusfromlookinguponhumanbeingsascapitalgoods,exceptinslavery,andthisweabhor.Wearenotunaffectedbythelongstruggletoridsocietyofindenturedserviceandtoevolvepoliticalandlegalinstitutionstokeepmenfreefrombondage.Theseareachievementsthatweprizehighly.Hence,totreathumanbeingsaswealththatcanbeaugmentedbyinvestmentrunscountertodeeplyheldvalues.Itseemstoreducemanonceagaintoamerematerialcomponent,tosomethingakintoproperty.Andformantolookuponhimselfasacapitalgood,evenifitdidnotimpairhisfreedom,mayseemtodebasehim.NolessapersonthanJ.S.Millatonetimeinsistedthatthepeopleofacountryshouldnotbelookeduponaswealthbecausewealthexistedonlyforthesakeofpeople[15].ButsurelyMillwaswrong;thereisnothingintheconceptofhumanwealthcontrarytohisideathatitexistsonlyfortheadvantageofpeople.Byinvestinginthemselves,peoplecanenlargetherangeofchoiceavailabletothem.Itisonewayfreemencanenhancetheirwel-fare.
Amongthefewwhohavelookeduponhumanbeingsascapital,therearethreedistinguishednames.Thephilosopher-economistAdamSmithboldlyincludedalloftheacquiredandusefulabilitiesofalloftheinhabitantsofacountryasapartofcapital.SodidH.vonThinen,whothenwentontoarguethattheconceptofcapitalappliedtomandidnotdegradehimorimpairhisfreedomanddignity,butonthecontrarythatthefailuretoapplytheconceptwasespeciallypernicious
inwars;“...forhere...onewillsacrificeinabattleahundred
1ThisparagraphdrawsontheintroductiontomyTellerLecture[16].
SCHULTZ:INVESTMENTINHUMANCAPITAL3
humanbeingsintheprimeoftheirliveswithoutathoughtinordertosaveonegun.”Thereasonisthat,“...thepurchaseofacannoncausesanoutlayofpublicfunds,whereashumanbeingsaretobehadfornothingbymeansofamereconscriptiondecree”[20].IrvingFisheralsoclearlyandcogentlypresentedanall-inclusiveconceptofcapital[6].Yetthemainstreamofthoughthasheldthatitisneitherap-propriatenorpracticaltoapplytheconceptofcapitaltohumanbeings.Marshall[11],whosegreatprestigegoesfartoexplainwhythisviewwasaccepted,heldthatwhilehumanbeingsareincontestablycapitalfromanabstractandmathematicalpointofview,itwouldbeoutoftouchwiththemarketplacetotreatthemascapitalinpracticalanalyses.Investmentinhumanbeingshasaccordinglyseldombeenincorporatedintheformalcoreofeconomics,eventhoughmanyeconomists,includingMarshall,haveseenitsrelevanceatonepointoranotherinwhattheyhavewritten.
Thefailuretotreathumanresourcesexplicitlyasaformofcapital,asaproducedmeansofproduction,astheproductofinvestment,hasfosteredtheretentionoftheclassicalnotionoflaborasacapacitytodomanualworkrequiringlittleknowledgeandskill,acapacitywithwhich,accordingtothisnotion,laborersareendowedaboutequally.Thisnotionoflaborwaswrongintheclassicalperiodanditispatentlywrongnow.Countingindividualswhocanandwanttoworkandtreat-ingsuchacountasameasureofthequantityofaneconomicfactorisnomoremeaningfulthanitwouldbetocountthenumberofallmannerofmachinestodeterminetheireconomicimportanceeitherasastockofcapitalorasaflowofproductiveservices.
Laborershavebecomecapitalistsnotfromadiffusionoftheowner-shipofcorporationstocks,asfolklorewouldhaveit,butfromtheac-quisitionofknowledgeandskillthathaveeconomicvalue[9].Thisknowledgeandskillareingreatparttheproductofinvestmentand,combinedwithotherhumaninvestment,predominantlyaccountfortheproductivesuperiorityofthetechnicallyadvancedcountries.ToomittheminstudyingeconomicgrowthisliketryingtoexplainSovietide-ologywithoutMarx.
II.EconomicGrowthfromHumanCapital
Manyparadoxesandpuzzlesaboutourdynamic,growingeconomycanberesolvedoncehumaninvestmentistakenintoaccount.Letmebeginbysketchingsomethatareminorthoughnottrivial.
Whenfarmpeopletakenonfarmjobstheyearnsubstantiallylessthanindustrialworkersofthesamerace,age,andsex.Similarlynon-whiteurbanmalesearnmuchlessthanwhitemalesevenafterallow-anceismadefortheeffectsofdifferencesinunemployment,age,city
THEAMERICANECONOMICREVIEW
sizeandregion[21].Becausethesedifferentialsinearningscorrespondcloselytocorrespondingdifferentialsineducation,theystronglysug-gestthattheoneisaconsequenceoftheother.Negroeswhooperatefarms,whetherastenantsorasowners,earnmuchlessthanwhitesoncomparablefarms.²Fortunately,cropsandlivestockarenotvulnerabletotheblightofdiscrimination.Thelargedifferencesinearningsseemrathertoreflectmainlythedifferencesinhealthandeducation.WorkersintheSouthontheaverageearnappreciablylessthanintheNorthorWestandtheyalsohaveontheaveragelesseducation.Mostmigra-toryfarmworkersearnverylittleindeedbycomparisonwithotherworkers.Manyofthemhavevirtuallynoschooling,areinpoorhealth,areunskilled,andhavelittleabilitytodousefulwork.Tourgethatthedifferencesintheamountofhumaninvestmentmayexplainthesedifferencesinearningsseemselementary.Ofmorerecentvintageareobservationsshowingyoungerworkersatacompetitiveadvantage;forexample,youngmenenteringthelaborforcearesaidtohaveanad-vantageoverunemployedolderworkersinobtainingsatisfactoryjobs.Mostof.theseyoungpeoplepossesstwelveyearsofschool,mostoftheolderworkerssixyearsorless.Theobservedadvantageoftheseyoungerworkersmaythereforeresultnotfrominflexibilitiesinsocialsecurityorinretirementprograms,orfromsociologicalpreferenceofemployers,butfromrealdifferencesinproductivityconnectedwithoneformofhu-maninvestment,i.e.,education.Andyetanotherexample,thecurvere-latingincometoagetendstobesteeperforskilledthanforunskilledpersons.Investmentinon-the-jobtrainingseemsalikelyexplanation,asIshallnotelater.
Economicgrowthrequiresmuchinternalmigrationofworkerstoad-justtochangingjobopportunities[10].Youngmenandwomenmovemorereadilythanolderworkers.Surelythismakeseconomicsensewhenonerecognizesthatthecostsofsuchmigrationareaformofhumaninvestment.Youngpeoplehavemoreyearsaheadofthemthanolderworkersduringwhichtheycanrealizeonsuchaninvestment.Henceittakeslessofawagedifferentialtomakeiteconomicallyad-vantageousforthemtomove,or,toputitdifferently,youngpeoplecanexpectahigherreturnontheirinvestmentinmigrationthanolderpeople.Thisdifferentialmayexplainselectivemigrationwithoutrequir-inganappealtosociologicaldifferencesbetweenyoungandoldpeople. Theexamplessofargivenareforinvestmentinhumanbeingsthatyieldareturnoveralongperiod.Thisistrueequallyofinvestmentineducation,training,andmigrationofyoungpeople.Notallinvestmentsinhumanbeingsareofthiskind;somearemorenearlyakintocurrentinputsasforexampleexpendituresonfoodandshelterinsomecoun-
BasedonunpublishedpreliminaryresultsobtainedbyJosephWillettinhisPh.D.researchattheUniversityofChicago.
SCHULTZ:INVESTMENTINHUMANCAPITAL5
trieswhereworkismainlytheapplicationofbrutehumanforce,callingforenergyandstamina,andwheretheintakeoffoodisfarfromenoughtodoafullday'swork.Onthe“hungry”steppesandintheteemingvalleysofAsia,millionsofadultmaleshavesomeageradietthattheycannotdomorethanafewhoursofhardwork.Tocallthemunderemployeddoesnotseempertinent.Undersuchcircum-stancesitiscertainlymeaningfultotreatfoodpartlyasconsumptionandpartlyasacurrent“producergood,”assomeIndianeconomistshavedone[3].LetusnotforgetthatWesterneconomistsduringtheearlydecadesofindustrializationandeveninthetimeofMarshallandPigouoftenconnectedadditionalfoodforworkerswithincreasesinlaborproductivity.
Letmenowpassontothreemajorperplexingquestionscloselycon-nectedwiththeriddleofeconomicgrowth.First,considerthelong-
periodbehaviorofthecapital-incomeratio.Weweretaughtthatacoun-
trywhichamassedmorereproduciblecapitalrelativetoitslandand
laborwouldemploysuchcapitalingreater“depth”becauseofitsgrow-
ingabundanceandcheapness.Butapparentlythisisnotwhathappens.
Onthecontrary,theestimatesnowavailableshowthatlessofsuchcapitaltendstobeemployedrelativetoincomeaseconomicgrowthpro-
ceeds.Arewetoinferthattheratioofcapitaltoincomehasnorelevance.inexplainingeitherpovertyoropulence?Orthatariseofthisratiois
notaprerequisitetoeconomicgrowth?Thesequestionsraisefunda-
mentalissuesbearingonmotivesandpreferencesforholdingwealth
aswellasonthemotivesforparticularinvestmentsandthestockof
capitaltherebyaccumulated.Formypurposeallthatneedstobesaid
isthattheseestimatesofcapital-incomeratiosrefertoonlyapartof
allcapital.Theyexcludeinparticular,andmostunfortunately,any
humancapital.Yethumancapitalhassurelybeenincreasingatarate。substantiallygreaterthanreproducible(nonhuman)capital.Wecan-
not,therefore,inferfromtheseestimatesthatthestockofallcapitalhasbeendecreasingrelativetoincome.Onthecontrary,ifweacceptthenotimplausibleassumptionthatthemotivesandpreferencesofpeople,thetechnicalopportunitiesopentothem,andtheuncertaintyassociatedwitheconomicgrowthduringparticularperiodswereleadingpeopletomaintainroughlyaconstantratiobetweenallcapitalandincome,thedeclineintheestimatedcapital-incomeratio³issimplyasignalthathumancapitalhasbeenincreasingrelativelynotonlytoconventionalcapitalbutalsotoincome.
Thebumpercropofestimatesthatshownationalincomeincreas-
'Ileaveasideherethediffcultiesinherentinidentifyingandmeasuringboththenon-humancapitalandtheincomeenteringintoestimatesofthisratio.Thereareindexnumberandaggregationproblemsaplenty,andnotallimprovementsinthequalityofthiscapitalhavebeenaccountedfor,asIshallnotelater.
6THEAMERICANECONOMICREVIEW
ingfasterthannationalresourcesraisesasecondandnotunrelatedpuzzle.TheincomeoftheUnitedStateshasbeenincreasingatamuchvhigherratethanthecombinedamountofland,man-hoursworkedandthestockofreproduciblecapitalusedtoproducetheincome.More-over,thediscrepancybetweenthetworateshasbecomelargerfromonebusinesscycletothenextduringrecentdecades[5].Tocallthisdiscrepancyameasureof“resourceproductivity”givesanametoourignorancebutdoesnotdispelit.Ifweaccepttheseestimates,thecon-nectionsbetweennationalresourcesandnationalincomehavebecome
looseandtenuousovertime.Unlessthisdiscrepancycanberesolved,receivedtheoryofproductionappliedtoinputsandoutputsascur-rentlymeasuredisatoyandnotatoolforstudyingeconomicgrowth.
Twosetsofforcesprobablyaccountforthediscrepancy,ifweneglectentirelytheindexnumberandaggregationprobiemsthatbe-devilallestimatesofsuchglobalaggregatesastotailoutputandtotalinput.Oneisreturnstoscale;thesecond,thelargeimprovementsinthequalityofinputsthathaveoccurredbuthavebeenomittedfromtheinputestimates.Oureconomyhasundoubtedlybeenexperiencingincreasingreturnstoscaleatsomepointsoffsetbydecreasingreturnsatothers.Ifwecansucceedinidentifyingandmeasuringthenetgains,theymayturnouttohavebeensubstantial.Theimprovementsinthequalityofinputsthathavenotbeenadequatelyallowedforarenodoubtpartlyinmaterial(nonhuman)capital.Myownconception,however,isthatboththisdefectandtheomissionofeconomiesofscaleareminorsourcesofdiscrepancybetweentheratesofgrowthofinputsandoutputscomparedtotheimprovementsinhumancapac-itythathavebeenomitted.
Asmallsteptakesusfromthesetwopuzzlesraisedbyexistingesti-matestoathirdwhichbringsustotheheartofthematter,namelythe-essentiallyunexplainedlargeincreaseinrealearningsofworkers.Can thisbeawindfall?Oraquasirentpendingtheadjustmentinthesupply oflabor?Or,apurerentreflectingthefixedamountoflabor?Itseems farmorereasonablethatitrepresentsratherareturntotheinvestment thathasbeenmadeinhumanbeings.Theobservedgrowthinpro- ductivityperunitoflaborissimplyaconsequenceofholdingtheunit oflaborconstantovertimealthoughinfactthisunitoflaborhasbeen increasingasaresultofasteadilygrowingamountofhumancapital perworker.AsIreadourrecord,thehumancapitalcomponenthasbe- comeverylargeasaconsequenceofhumaninvestment.
Anotheraspectofthesamebasicquestion,whichadmitsofthesameresolution,istherapidpostwarrecoveryofcountriesthathadsufferedseveredestructionofplantandequipmentduringthewar.Thetollfrombombingwasalltoovisibleinthefactorieslaidflat,therailroad
SCHULTZ:INVESTMENTINHUMANCAPITAL7
yards,bridges,andharborswrecked,andthecitiesinruin.Structures,equipmentandinventorieswereallheapsofrubble.Notsovisible,yetlarge,wasthetollfromthewartimedepletionofthephysicalplantthatescapeddestructionbybombs.Economistswerecalledupontoassesstheimplicationsofthesewartimelossesforrecovery.Inretro-spect,itisclearthattheyoverestimatedtheprospectiveretardingeffectsoftheselosses.Havinghadasmallhandinthiseffort,Ihavehadaspecialreasonforlookingbackandwonderingwhythejudg-mentsthatweformedsoonafterthewarprovedtobesofarfromthemark.Theexplanationthatnowisclearisthatwegavealtogethertoomuchweighttononhumancapitalinmakingtheseassessments.Wefellintothiserror,Iamconvinced,becausewedidnothaveaconceptofallcapitaland,therefore,failedtotakeaccountofhumancapitalandtheimportantpartthatitplaysinproductioninamoderneconomy.
Letmeclosethissectionwithacommentonpoorcountries,forwhichtherearevirtuallynosolidestimates.Ihavebeenimpressedbyrepeatedlyexpressedjudgments,especiallybythosewhohaveare-sponsibilityinmakingcapitalavailabletopoorcountries,aboutthelowrateatwhichthesecountriescanabsorbadditionalcapital.Newcapitalfromoutsidecanbeputtogooduse,itissaid,onlywhenitisadded“slowlyandgradually.”Butthisexperienceisatvariancewiththewidelyheldimpressionthatcountriesarepoorfundamentallybecausetheyarestarvedforcapitalandthatadditionalcapitalistrulythekeytotheirmorerapideconomicgrowth.Thereconciliationisagain,Ibelieve,tobefoundinemphasisonparticularformsofcapital.Thenewcapitalavailabletothesecountriesfromoutsideasarulegoesintotheformationofstructures,equipmentandsometimesalsointoinventories.Butitisgenerallynotavailableforadditionalinvest-mentinman.Consequently,humancapabilitiesdonotstayabreastofphysicalcapital,andtheydobecomelimitingfactorsineconomicgrowth.Itshouldcomeasnosurprise,therefore,thattheabsorptionrateofcapitaltoaugmentonlyparticularnonhumanresourcesisnecessarilylow.TheHorvat[8]formulationoftheoptimumrateofinvestmentwhichtreatsknowledgeandskillasacriticalinvestment
variableindeterminingtherateofeconomicgrowthisbothrelevantandimportant.
III.ScopeandSubstanceofTheseInvestments
Whatarehumaninvestments?Cantheybedistinguishedfromcon-sumption?Isitatallfeasibletoidentifyandmeasurethem?Whatdotheycontributetoincome?Grantedthattheyseemamorphouscom-paredtobrickandmortar,andhardtogetatcomparedtothein-vestmentaccountsofcorporations,theyassuredlyarenotafragment;
8THEAMERICANECONOMICREVIEW
theyareratherlikethecontentsofPandora'sbox,fullofdifficultiesandhope.
Humanresourcesobviouslyhavebothquantitativeandqualitative
dimensions.Thenumberofpeople,theproportionwhoenteruponuse-fulwork,andhoursworkedareessentiallyquantitativecharacteristics.Tomakemytasktolerablymanageable,Ishallneglecttheseandcon-sideronlysuchqualitycomponentsasskill,knowledge,andsimilarattributesthataffectparticularhumancapabilitiestodoproductivework.Insofarasexpenditurestoenhancesuchcapabilitiesalsoin-creasethevalueproductivityofhumaneffort(labor),theywillyieldapositiverateofreturn.⁴
Howcanweestimatethemagnitudeofhumaninvestment?The
practicefollowedinconnectionwithphysicalcapitalgoodsistoesti-matethemagnitudeofcapitalformationbyexpendituresmadetopro-ducethecapitalgoods.Thispracticewouldsufficealsofortheforma-tionofhumancapital.However,forhumancapitalthereisanadditionalproblemthatislesspressingforphysicalcapitalgoods:howtodistin-guishbetweenexpendituresforconsumptionandforinvestment.Thisdistinctionbristleswithbothconceptualandpracticaldificulties.Wecanthinkofthreeclassesofexpenditures:expendituresthatsatisfyconsumerpreferencesandinnowayenhancethecapabilitiesunderdiscussion—theserepresentpureconsumption;expendituresthaten-hancecapabilitiesanddonotsatisfyanypreferencesunderlyingcon-sumption—theserepresentpureinvestment;andexpendituresthathavebotheffects.Mostrelevantactivitiesclearlyareinthethirdclass,partlyconsumptionandpartlyinvestment,whichiswhythetaskofidentifyingeachcomponentissoformidableandwhythemeasurementofcapitalformationbyexpendituresislessusefulforhumaninvest-mentthanforinvestmentinphysicalgoods.Inprinciplethereisanalternativemethodforestimatinghumaninvestment,namelybyitsyieldratherthanbyitscost.Whileanycapabilityproducedbyhumaninvestmentbecomesapartofthehumanagentandhencecannotbesold;itisnevertheless“intouchwiththemarketplace”byaffectingthewagesandsalariesthehumanagentcanearn.Theresultingin-creaseinearningsistheyieldontheinvestment.5
Despitethedifficultyofexactmeasurementatthisstageofour
understandingofhumaninvestment,manyinsightscanbegainedbyexaminingsomeofthemoreimportantactivitiesthatimprovehuman
,‘Evenso,ourobservedreturncanbeeithernegative,zeroorpositivebecauseour
observationsaredrawnfromaworldwherethereisuncertaintyandimperfectknowledgeandwheretherearewindfallgainsandlossesandmistakesaplenty.
Inprinciple,thevalueoftheinvestmentcanbedeterminedbydiscountingtheaddi-
tionalfutureearningsityieldsjustasthevalueofaphysicalcapitalgoodcanbedeicr-minedbydiscountingitsincomestream.
good
'Forinstance,theincomeelasticityofthedemandforfoodcontinuestobepositiveevenafterthepointisreachedwhereadditionalfoodnolongerhastheattributeofa“producer.”
SCHULTZ:INVESTMENTINHUMANCAPITAL9
capabilities.Ishallconcentrateonfivemajorcategories:(1)healthfacilitiesandservices,broadlyconceivedtoincludeallexpendituresthatafiectthelifeexpectancy,strengthandstamina,andthevigorandvitalityofapeople;(2)on-the-jobtraining,includingold-styleapprenticeshiporganizedbyfirms;(3)formallyorganizededucationattheelementary,secondary,andhigherlevels;(4)studyprogramsforadultsthatarenotorganizedbyfirms,includingextensionpro-gramsnotablyinagriculture;(5)migrationofindividualsandfamiliestoadjusttochangingjobopportunities.Exceptforeducation,notmuchisknownabouttheseactivitiesthatisgermanehere.Ishallre-f
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