Ch-2-Balance-of-Payments-Adjustments英语教学课件

Ch2Balance-of-PaymentsAdjustmentsIntroduction本章主要内容Exchange-RatechangesandBOPAdjustment浮动汇率制下国际收支调节ElasticityapproachAbsorptionapproachMonetaryapproachAutomaticadjustmentmechanismsunderfixedexchange-ratesystem固定汇率制下的自动调节机制PriceAdjustmentsInterest-RateAdjustmentsIncomeAdjustmentsMonetaryApproachGovernmentPolicies国际收支的政府政策调节Exchange-Ratechanges

andBOPAdjustmentImpactofexchange-ratechangesonthebalanceofpayments浮动汇率制下汇率变动对国际收支的影响conditionsunderwhichcurrencydepreciationandappreciationwillimprove/worsenanation’spaymentsposition贬值改善收支的条件？RequirementsforaSuccessfulDepreciation

对贬值改善国际收支的分析Approachestocurrencydepreciation:货币贬值对国际收支影响的三种分析方法ElasticityapproachAbsorptionapproachMonetaryapproachElasticityApproach汇率调节之弹性分析EmphasizestherelativepriceeffectsofdepreciationSuggeststhatdepreciationworksbestwhendemandelasticitiesarehigh需求价格弹性高时，贬值较有效Elasticityistheratioofthepercentagechangeinthequantitydemandedtothepercentagechangeinprice需求价格弹性的定义Elasticity=(ΔQ*P)/(Q*ΔP)ElasticityApproachMarshall-Lernercondition马歇尔勒纳条件（p35）Depreciationwillimprovethetradebalanceifthecurrency-depreciatingnation’sdemandelasticityforimportsplustheforeigndemandelasticityforthenation’sexportsexceeds1.Ifthesumofthedemandelasticitiesislessthan1,depreciationwillworsenthetradebalanceThetradebalancewillbeneitherhelpednorhurtifthesumofthedemandelasticitiesequals1ContinuedEffectofdepreciationofthepoundontheBritishtradebalance英镑贬值对贸易收支的影响？？？？ImportExporttradebalance1.1*0.75－1=－0.1751*1.15－1=0.150.15－(－0.175)=0.3251.1*0.98－1=0.0781*1.01－1=0.010.01－(0.078)=-0.068DepreciationFlowchart本币贬值影响价格进而影响需求从而影响进出口的过程J-CurveEffect:

TimePathofDepreciation（p36）CurrencydepreciationaffectstradebalanceAdjustmentofbothpricesandquantitiesNetimpactonexportreceiptsandimportexpendituresJ曲线效应J-curveeffectInitialeffectisanincreaseinimportexpendituresHome-currencypriceofimportshasrisen,butthevolumeisunchangedowingtopriorcommitmentsAstimepasses,thequantityadjustmenteffectbecomesrelevantDomesticcompaniesneedtimeandspareresourcetomeetincreasedforeigndemandExample:U.S.balanceoftrade(1980sand1990s)

Between1980and1987,theU.S.merchandisetradedeficitexpandedatarapidrate.Thetradedeficitdecreasedsubstantiallybetween1988and1991.Therapidincreaseinthetradedeficitthattookplaceduringtheearly1980soccurredmainlybecauseoftheappreciationofthedollaratthetime,whichresultedinasteadyincreaseinimportsandadropinU.S.exports.Thedepreciationofthedollarthatbeganin1985ledtoaboominexportsin1988andadropinthetradedeficitthrough1991.TimepathofU.S.balanceoftrade(inbillionsofdollars)inresponsetodollarappreciationanddepreciationJ-CurveEffect:

TimePathofDepreciationAdjustmentlagsMaybefouryearsormoreMajorportiontakesplaceinabouttwoyearsTypesoflagsRecognitionlagsDecisionlagsReplacementlags(replacinginventories)Productionlags(adjustingtheproductionprocess)ContinuedTheAbsorptionApproach

汇率调节之吸收分析Dealswiththeincomeeffectsofdepreciation讨论本币贬值通过收入支出对贸易收支的影响Balanceoftrade(CAB)equalsthedifferencebetweenGrossnationaldisposableincome(GNDY)

andlevelofabsorption(A)Currencydepreciationwillimprovetradebalanceonlyifnationaloutputrisesrelativetoabsorption本币贬值如能使得收入相对于支出增加，则能改善贸易收支。Acountrymustincreaseitstotaloutput,reduceitsabsorption,ordosomecombinationofthetwoExpression:CAB=GNDY

－ATheMonetaryApproach

汇率调节之货币分析汇率变动的弹性分析和吸收分析仅仅关注贸易收支，忽略了资本流动的影响。对贬值效果的货币分析弥补了这个缺陷。Adepreciationofthehomecurrencywouldincreasethepricelevel(thatis,thedomestic-currencypriceofpotentialimportsandexports).Thisincreasewouldincreasethedemandformoney,becauselargeamountofmoneyareneededfortransactions.IFthatdemandisnotfulfilledfromdomesticsources,aninflowofmoneyfromoverseasoccurs.ThisinflowresultsinaBOPsurplusandariseininternationalreserves.Butthesurplusdoesnotlastlong.Increasedmoneysupplyleadstoanincreaseinspending(absorption),whichreducesthesurplus.Effectsofdepreciation:贬值短期内可能改善国际收支，从长期看只会提高国内物价。Temporaryimprovementinbalance-of-paymentspositionRaisesthedomesticpricelevelinthelong-run国际收支自动调节机制Automaticadjustmentofthebalance-of-paymentsunderfixedexchange-ratesystemPriceAdjustmentsInterest-RateAdjustmentsIncomeAdjustmentsMonetaryAdjustmentsPriceAdjustments回顾金本位和货币数量说GoldStandard:Existedfromthelate1800stotheearly1900sCharacterizedbythreeconditions金本位制三个特征Eachmembernation’smoneysupplyconsistedofgoldorpapermoneybackedbygoldEachmembernationdefinedtheofficialpriceofgoldintermsofitsnationalcurrencyandwaspreparedtobuyandsellgoldatthatpriceFreeimportandexportofgoldwaspermittedQuantityTheoryofMoney

货币数量说Equationofexchange：AmountspentonfinalgoodsequalstheamountreceivedfromsellingthemClassicaleconomists:additionalassumptionsQfixedatthefullemploymentlevelinthelongrunVwasconstantAchangeinmoneysupply(M)mustinduceadirectandproportionatechangeinPBOPAdjustmentUndertheclassicalGoldStandard,thebalanceofpaymentsislinkedtoanation’smoneysupply,whichislinkedtoitsdomesticpricelevel.Originaltheoryofbalance-of-paymentsadjustment:DavidHume(1711–1776)：Anation’sbalanceofpaymentstendstomovetowardequilibriumautomaticallyDeficitnationGoldoutflow,reductioninmoneysupplyandthusitspricelevel,competitivenessenhanced,importsfallandexportsrise,tillbalance-of-paymentsequilibriumisrestoredSurplusnationGoldinflowsandanincreaseinitsmoneysupply,……tillequilibriumisrestoredBOP—MONEYSUPPLY—PRICELEVEL—BOP

Debateoverprice-adjustmentmechanism

价格调整机制之争议Linkagebetweenchangesinanation’sgoldsupplyandchangesinitsmoneysupplyNoLongerHolds.黄金储备与货币供应之间的关系？FullemploymentassumptionChallenged.充分就业的假设？Pricesandwagesinflexibleinadownwarddirection价格与工资的粘性？Deficitcountry’sfallingmoneysupplywillcauseafallinoutputandemploymentratherthanafallinprice.StabilityandpredictabilityofVQuestioned.货币流通速度为常数的假设？Interest-RateAdjustments利率调节机制讨论国际收支状况对短期利率的影响进而对短期私人资本流动的影响ImpactofsurplusordeficitonShort-terminterestratesandhenceonshort-termprivatecapitalflowsInterestratemovementsinresponsetomoneysupply,promptingcapitalflowsCapitalmovementsareshort-term,stabilisingAutomaticrestorationofpaymentsequilibriumRulesofthegameDuringactualprocess,centralbanksagreetoreinforceandspeeduptheadjustmentprocessbyexpandingcreditwhileinsurplusandtighteningcreditwhileindeficit.央行为促进国际收支调整，主动采取信贷收缩（或扩张）政策以减少逆差（顺差）。BOP—MONEYSUPPLY—INTERESTRATE—CAPITALFLOW—BOP

FinancialFlowsandInterest-RateDifferentials

资本流动与利差Mostimportantfactorthatcausesfinancialassetstomoveacrossnationalbordersisinterest-ratedifferential最重要的因素：各国利差Otherfactorsimportanttoo:investmentprofitability,nationaltaxpolicies,politicalstability…其他影响因素：投资回报率、各国税收政策、国内政治稳定等等。Discouragingfinancialflows阻碍资本流动的因素Interestequalizationtax:利息平衡税1964-1974,taxingU.S.investorsondividendandinterestincomefromforeignsecurities.Foreign-credit-restraintprogram:对外信贷限制措施placingdirectrestrictionsonforeignlendingbyU.S.banksandfinancialinstitutionsandlateronforeignlendingofnon-financialcorporations,resultinginanupwardshiftfromCFA0toCFA1.Example:HypotheticalcapitalandfinancialaccountschedulesfortheUnitedStates美国资本和金融项目收支状况（假设情形）Assumesthatinterest-ratedifferentialsarethebasicdeterminantoffinancialflowsRelativelyhigh(low)U.S.interestratestriggernetfinancialinflows(outflows)andanupward(downward)movementalongtheCFAline.Thelineshiftsupward/downwardinresponsetochangesinnon-interest-ratedeterminantssuchasinvestmentprofitability,taxpolicies,andpoliticalstability.HypotheticalU.S.capitalandfinancialaccountschedule美国资本和金融项目收支状况（假设情形）IncomeAdjustmentsCriticismofclassicaltheory:almostcompletelyneglectedtheeffectofincomeadjustment(purchasingpowerofsurplusnationwouldriserelativetothatofthedeficitnation…).梅纳德凯恩斯Theoryofincomedetermination–JohnMaynardKeynes(1930s)UnderfixedexchangeratesInfluenceofincomechangesinsurplusanddeficitnationswouldhelprestorepaymentsequilibriumautomatically:givenapersistentpaymentsimbalance,asurplusnationwillexperiencingrisingincomehencerisingimports.BOP—NATIONALINCOME—IMPORT—BOP

DisadvantagesofautomaticAdjustmentMechanisms

国际收支自动调节机制的缺陷MajorshortcomingRequirescentralbankerstoforgotheiruseofmonetarypolicytopromotethegoaloffullemploymentwithoutinflation;eachnationmustbewillingtoacceptinflationorrecessionwhenbalance-of-paymentsadjustmentrequiresit.Today,unemploymenteliminationisoftengivenpriorityoverbalance-of-paymentequilibrium.Modernnationsarereluctanttomakesignificantinternalsacrificesforthesakeofexternalequilibrium.Politicalunacceptable.MonetaryAdjustments

国际收支调整之货币分析法（p38）Monetaryapproachtothebalanceofpayments(1960sand1970s),UniversityofChicago,RobertMundell,HarryJohnson.通过货币渠道的传递，国际收支经自我调整趋向平衡。Anexternalimbalanceaffectstheeconomyindirectlythroughthemonetaryrouteinamannerthattendstoreducetheimbalance.AsintheclassicalandKeynesianapproaches,adjustmentinthebalanceofpaymentsisviewedasanautomaticprocess.Assumption:Demandformoneyisastablefunctionofrealincome,prices,andinterestratesoverthelongrun.货币论对货币需求函数的假设QuantityofnominalmoneydemandDirectlyrelatedtoincomeandpricesInverselyrelatedtotheinterestrateNation’smoneysupplyisamultipleofthemonetarybasethatincludestwocomponents:货币供给由国内和国外两部分组成Domesticcomponent:creditcreatedbydomesticmonetaryauthorities.Internationalcomponent:anation’sforeignexchangereserve自我调整的过程：Acountryindeficit(surplus)experiencesamultipleshrinkage(expansion)initsmoneysupply.Sincemuchspendingintheeconomy,andthereforeoutput,employmentandincome,dependsontheavailabilityofbankloans.“Tight”moneyandhigherinterestratewillcurtailinvestment,homeconstructionandothereconomicactivitiesthatdependonborrowedfunds.Assuchreductionspreadsthroughtheeconomy,peoplearelessabletoaffordimportedgoods,andtheeconomyneedslessimportedmaterialsandenergy.Tightermoneysupplyalsocurtailstherateofpriceincreases,therebymakingthecountrymorecompetitive.

逆差国货币供应减少，货币紧缩可能带来消费和投资的下降，因而减少进口；货币紧缩使得物价上升得到抑制，因而增强了本国产品及服务的价格优势。Monetaryapproachmaintainsthat货币论认为Disequilibriuminthebalanceofpaymentsisprimarilyamonetaryphenomenon.国际收支的不平衡是一个货币现象。Allpaymentsdeficitsaretheresultofanexcesssupplyofmoneyinthehomecountry.逆差源于国内超额货币供应。国内的超额货币需求引致国际收支顺差。Anexcessdemandformoneyinthehomecountryleadstoapaymentssurplusandanexcesssupplyofmoney……Balanceinanation’spaymentpositionisrestoredwhenexcesssupplyofmoney,orexcessdemandformoney,hasfallenenoughtorestoretheequilibriumcondition:Moneysupplyequalsmoneysupply.货币供给与需求平衡时，国际收支恢复平衡。InternationalEconomics(10thedition)RobertJ.CarbaughChangeinthesupplyofmoneyanddemandformoneyunderfixedexchangerates:ImpactontheBOPaccordingtotheMonetaryApproach固定汇率制下货币供给与货币需求的变动对国际收支的影响（国际收支调整的货币主义分析法）：假设国际收支一开始处于平衡状态，且该国货币需求等于货币供给。根据货币分析法，货币供给的增加会引起国际收支的逆差。Moneyactsasbothadisturbanceandanadjustmenttothebalanceofpayments.Whatdoyouthink?TheStructuralApproach

国际收支调整之结构论（p40）ThisapproachtotheBalanceofPaymentsarosefromaconsiderationofdevelopingcountries,buthasalsobeenappliedtodevelopedcountries结构论源于从发展中国家的情况出发考虑国际收支的不平衡及其调整问题1.Balanceofpaymentsimbalancesoftenarisefromstructuralimbalanceswithintheeconomywhicharisebecausegrowthanddevelopmentinvolvecontinuousprocessesofstructuralchange.Thesemayleadto:(a)differentregionsgrowingatdifferentspeeds,heUK,theSoutheastgrowingfasterthantheNortheast.HighincomeintheSoutheastleadstoincreaseddemandforimports,whichcannotbeproducedintheNortheast.Thelackofmobilityoflabourensuresthattheimbalanceremains.(b)differentsectorsgrowingatdifferentspeeds,causingsupplybottleneckse.g.indevelopingeconomies,urbansectorsmaygrowrapidly,butagriculturalsectorsmaybeunabletoadjustrapidly,leadingtotheincreasedimportoffood.(c)changingpatternsofdemand.Countriesmaybeunabletoshiftresourcesawayfromproductsthatarenolongercompetitiveinternationallyintonewproductsforwhichprospectsappearbrighter.2.Particularproblemswillarisewhere:(a)acountry'sexportsareincome-inelastic:asworldincomerises,thedemandforexportsdoesnotkeeppace(oldheavyindustries:shipbuildingetc);(b)itsimportsareincome-elastic:growthleadsdirectlytobalanceofpaymentsdeficits(essentialrawmaterials,foreign-producedconsumergoods,energysources).3.Theelasticitiesandotherapproachesaregenerallyconcernedwithprice-competitiveness.Here,rather,thefocusisonquality,deliverydates,after-salesserviceetc.Depreciationoftheexchangerate,thusimprovingprice-competitiveness,willonlybeoftemporaryassistance.Thelong-rundeclinecontinuesbecauseofnon-pricecompetitiveness.Thisisoftenduetoinadequateinvestmentand/orinadequatetrainingofthework-force.adevelopingcountrycaseWorseningagriculturaltermsoftradeleadstoabalanceofpaymentsdeficit,whichinturnleadstoashortageofforeignexchange.Thismeansthelackofabilitytobuyimportedcapitalequipmentnecessarytodiversifyintootherindustriesortoincreasetheproductivityofalreadyexistingindustries.Allthismeansthatgrowthmayinducebalanceofpaymentsproblemsandthatsuchproblemsmayactasaconstraintonfurthergrowth.Withindevelopedcountries,balance-of-payments-constrainedgrowthmayleadtodeindustrializationandtheshrinkingofthecountry'smanufacturingbase.StructuralApproach—PolicyimplicationIncaseofastructuralchangeinexternalbalance,itrequires:(a)governmentintervention:governmentinvestmentinordertoimprovenon-pricecompetitivenessandtofosteraswitchfromexportswithlowincome-elasticitiestoindustrieswithhighincome-elasticities;(b)selectedimportcontrolstoprotectindustrieswhiletheyimprovenon-pricecompetitiveness;(c)possiblyexchangecontrolstohelprationscarceforeignexchange.StructuralApproach—Criticisms(a)itadoptstoopessimisticaviewoftheabilityofadevelopingcountrytoswitchresourcestotheexportsectorinlinewithchangesincomparativeadvantage;(b)itunderestimatestheextenttowhichresourcescanbetransferredthroughthepricemechanism;(c)assumptionsaboutthepossibilitiesofsubstitutionbetweendomesticandforeigninputsmaybetoorigid.BOPadjustment—GovernmentPolicies

国际收支失衡的政府政策调节DomesticpolicymeasuresandtheCurrentAccount对经常项目的调节MonetaryPolicies货币政策FiscalPolicies财政政策EffectonDirectInvestmentCapital对直接投资的调节EffectonOtherCapitalMovements对其他资本流动的调节InternalandExternalPolicyTargets内外均衡的协调expenditure-changingpolicies

支出增减政策Toreinforcetheautomaticmechanisms,acountryindeficitneedstopursuetightfiscalandmonetarypolicies.Thislowersincomeandhenceimportsandimprovesthecurrentaccount.Asurpluscountrydoesthereverse.Thesearecalledexpenditure-changingpolicies,becauseremedyadeficit(surplus)byreducing(increasing)aggregateexpenditures.Theyareapplicableunderbothafixedandaflexibleexchangerate;ifinthelattercasethegovernmentisconcernedwithachievingequilibriumonthecurrentaccount.逆差国采用紧缩的货币和财政政策，顺差国相反。支出增减政策适用于固定汇率制也适用于浮动汇率制。逆差国—紧缩的货币财政政策TightMonetaryPoliciesRaiseinterestrateIncreasereserverequirementsofcommercialbanksSellgovernmentbondsintheopenmarkettherebywithdrawingmoneyfromtheeconomyTightFiscalPoliciesRaisetaxesLowergovernmentspending顺差国—扩张的货币财政政策略EffectonDirectInvestmentCapital

对直接投资的调节因为自动调节机制的作用以及政府的扩张性政策，顺差国的顺差将减少，但国内经济的扩张可能吸引外国直接投资的进入。因此，政府调节政策的效果可能部分地被国际资本流动抵消：Whenasurpluscountryexperiencesautomaticexpansionreinforcedbygovernmentpolicy,theeffectonthebalanceoftradeistoreducethesurplus.Buttheexpansionalsoattractsforeigninvestment(long-termcapital),aninpaymentitemthatincreasesthesurplus.Theconvertistruewithdeficitcountries.EffectonOtherCapitalMovements

对其他资本流动的调节Portfoliocapitalmovementreferstotheplacementoffundsinforeignbonds,stocks,andbankaccounts(notFDI).Thesefundsaresensitivetointerestratedifferentialsbetweencountries.Forexample,theBritishgovernmentcandealwithatemporaryBOPdeficitbyraisingtherateofinterestandattractingshortingshort-termcapital.Majorshortcoming:canbecostly,becauseitmeanshigherinterestpaymentsontheinternalpublicdebt.Empiricalstudiesshowmixedresults.Differentthinking:ThePortfolioApproach—theflowoffundsduetointerestdifferentialswillstopbeforeinterestequilibriumisreached.ThePortfolioApproach.Domesticandforeignassetsarenotperfectsubstitutes.国内资产和国外资产并非完全可替代Peopledividetheirwealthbetweendomesticandforeignassetsinordertoprotectthemselvesagainstrisk.分散投资的目的是降低风险Theextenttowhichtheydiversifytheirassetsdependsonmanyfactors,onefactorbeingrelativeinterestratesathomeandabroad.Evenifhomeinterestrate