技术经济学英文版演示文稿C1课件

CHAPTER1DECISIONMAKING1.1DecisionMakingProcess1.2InteractionAmongVariousSteps1.3EconomicTerminology1.1DecisionMakingProcess

Economicdecisionsgohandinhandwithtechnicaldecisionsinthepetroleumindustry.Eachdecisionisassociatedwithseveralsteps.Inmostinstances,weneedtounderstandthesestepsbeforewecandeterminethefeasibilityofaproject.Startingfromwhethertoexplore（勘探）foroilandgas,theeconomicdecisionsbecomeanintegralpartoftheproject.Thefirstdecisionmaybewhethertosignanagreementtoacquireaconcession（让步）onalease（租约）.Anassociateddecisionwouldbehowmuchofasigningbonus(签字定金)needstobepaid.Ifsufficientdataareavailable,whereshouldthefirstwellbedrilled.Ifthewellissuccessful,Weneedtodecideifthehydrocarbonreservesareinsufficienteconomicquantitiestojustifyadditionaldrillingandexploitation（开采）.Afterfindinghydrocarbonsandknowingthattheycanbeproducedineconomicquantities,wefirstneedtodecidewhethertodeveloporselltoanotherparty.Ifwedecidetodevelop,weneedtoconsiderthedecisionsduringtheproductionphase..Startingfromthetypeofdrillingtechniqueweneedtouse,weneedtomakedecisionsassociatedwiththewellcompletiontechniques（完井技术),surfaceseparationequipment,thepiping(管道）andtubing（油管）requirementsandtherateofproduction.Thesefactorsarefurthercompoundedbythechangingeconomicsofoilandgaspricesoverwhichtheproducermaynothaveanycontrol.Nottomention,theproductionscenario(方案)canbesignificantlyaffectedbychanginggovernmentregulationseitherrelatedtoproductionquotas（配额）ortotheenvironmentalandpoliticalconcerns.Duringthesametime,knowingthatthepresentreservesaregoingtolastoverafiniteperiod,wewillhavetomakedecisionsrelatedtofutureacquisitionandleasingofonshoreandoffshorelands.Asdiscussed,thedecisionmakingprocessiscyclical（循环的）

andcontinuesthroughouttheperpetualexistenceoftheoilcompany.Althoughwehaveonlydiscussedthedecisionsrelatedtotheexplorationandproductionofthehydrocarbons.itshouldberememberedthattherefiningandprocessingofhydrocarbonsalsoinvolvesseveraldecisions.Weneedtounderstandtheproceduresinvolvedinanyofthesedecisions.Ourobjectiveinthiscourseistounderstandtheeconomicprinciplesrelatedtoexplorationandproductionofhydrocarbonsandstudytheeconomicevaluationprocessinthepresenceofuncertainty.Inachievingthisobjective,oneshouldrealizethatalthoughasingleanswertoanyquestionisdesirableandoftenwarranted,inmanyrealisticsituations,itisverydifficulttoobtainaunique（唯一的）answer.Inthischapter,wewilldiscussthedecisionmakingprocessineconomicanalysis.Manyofthestepsinthisdecisionmakingprocesswillbeexpandedinthesubsequentchapters.1.1DecisionMakingProcessAnydecisionmakingprocesshastobearational,wellinformedprocess.Itshouldbeconsistentwiththeavailableinformationandtheconstraintsimposed.Unlikeplayingacardgameorgambling,intuitivedeductions(直觉推论)orgutfeeling(内情)arerarelyusefulinmakinganobjectivedecisionrelatedtoeconomicevaluation.Thestepsinvolvedinsuchrationaleconomicdecisionareasfollows:1.1.1RecognitionofProblem(问题识别）Recognitionofproblemincludesdefiningtheproblemathand,itsimportance,andassociateduncertaintiesandrisksdealingwithsuchaproblem.Ifwecanconsiderthedevelopmentandexploitationofthepetroleumreservoirinachronologicalorder,theproblemswewillencountercanbestatedas:Willgeological/geophysicalandsurroundingreservoirdatalocatethereservoir?

*Willthewildcatwell(野猫井，也称初探井。在尚未发现具有商业价值的油气地区所钻的探井)produceincommercialquantitiestojustifyadditionalinvestigation?*Willadditionaldelineation(描述)berequiredbeforefurtherdevelopment?*Isfulldevelopmentofthefieldeconomicallyfeasible?*Whatshouldbetheoptimumstrategy(优化策略)forexploitingthereservoir?Inrecognizingtheseproblems,wealsoneedtounderstandtheassociatedrisksanduncertainties.Someofthecommonlyobserveduncertaintiesare:*Chanceofdiscoveryandeffectofgeologicalcontrol.*Reservoirheterogeneity(不同成分).*Interest/inflationrates.*Pricevariationsinhydrocarbons.*Governmentcontrolandregulations.*Politicalinstability.*Environmentalconcerns.*Reliabilityofdata.*Capitalrequirements.Acompleterecognitionofaproblemshouldincludetheidentificationofaproblemandtheassociatedrisks.Withouttheinclusionofrisks,thesolutionsobtainedmaybesimplisticandareoftenmisleading.Anoilcompanywillconsidertheeconomicanalysisinthemostfavorablelighttoeithersecuretheapprovalofloanorofitsshareholders.Thelendinginstitute（信用机构）,ontheotherhand,willanalyzetheprospectinthemostconservativefashion,it'sobjectivebeingprovidingasecuredloan.Itmaycutthepotentialreservesofaprospectinhalfbeforegrantingaloantoassurethatsufficientcollateralexistsonaloan.Briefly,typicalobjectivesassociatedwithanypetroleumindustryproblemcanbesummarizedasfollows:*Maximizationofprofit/minimizationofloss.*Lendingofcapitalusingsecuredcredit.*Diversificationofactivities.*Determiningimpactofgovernmentregulations.*Publicperceptions.*Maximizationofjobs.*Environmentallysoundoperations.*Sellingandbuyingproperties.*Capturingorincreasingthemarketshare.*Taxassessment.*Safetyconsiderations.*Improvingemployeesatisfaction.Alltheobjectivesarenotnecessarilymonetary.Thenon-monetaryobjectivescanresultinchoosingdifferentsolutionsthantheoneschosenbysimplyconcentratingontheobjectiveofmaximizingprofitsorminimizinglosses.1.1.3AssemblyofRelevantdataDatacollectionisoftentediousandsometimesthemosttimeconsumingprocess.Withoutacarefulcollectionandanalysisofavailabledata,theresultingeconomicanalysismaybeworthless.Theassemblyofdatarequiresevaluationofavailableresourcesandfeasibilityofobtainingadditionaldata.Thisstepitselfinvolvesadecisionmaking.AdesignofwaterfloodOilandgasinvestmentTheevaluationofmarketconsequencesPredictionoffuturebenefitsPredictionofoilpriceOverall,collectionoftherelevantdataisoneofthemosttimeconsuming(耗费时间)andthecriticalstepsineconomicanalysis.Incompletecollectioncanhavesignificanteffectsonthefinalsolution.Inselectingthecriterion,onlythedifferencesinthealternativesarerelevanttotheircomparison.Forexample,ifcomparingthetwohouseswiththesameprice,wewillonlyconsiderthedifferencesinlocation,typeandannualmaintenancecosts.Ontheotherhand,inbuyingadiningtable,iftwotablesarethesamequalitybuiltbydifferentmanufacturers(厂商),thedifferencesinthepriceswouldbetheonlyconsideration.Ifwerestrictourselvestopurelyeconomicanalysis,mostofthecriteriacanbegroupedintothreecategories.FixedInputThiscriterionisapplicablewheretheamountofmoneyorresourcesarefixed.Theobjectiveistoeffectivelyutilizethem.Anexamplewouldbeafixedexplorationbudgetwhichneedstobespentonpotentiallyattractiveprospects.Thenumberofprospectsandassociatedexplorationcostsaregreaterthanthebudget.Therefore,prioritizingofthebudgetmayberequireddependinguponthegoalsofthecompany.FixedOutputThiscriterionisusedwhereafixedtaskneedstobeaccomplished.Theobjectiveistominimizetheresourcesrequiredtoaccomplishthetask.Anexamplewouldbelayingapipelinefromanoffshoreplatform.Weknowthediameterandthelengthofthepipeline,andthelocationofthepipelinewhereitwillbelaid.Wewillhavetosecurethebestmethodtominimizetheresourcesrequiredforbuildingthepipeline.NeitherInputnorOutputFixedThiscriterionisappliedwhereboththeinputandoutputareflexible.Theobjectivewillbetomaximizetheoutputwithminimumamountofresources.Anexamplewouldbeanoilproductionfromafield.Ifweintendtoincreasetheproductionthroughdrillingofin-fillwells,weshouldselectthenumberofin-fillwellssuchthattheincrementalcostofeachnewwelljustifiestheincrementalbenefitreceivedfromtheadditionalproduction.1.1.6ConstructionofModelInconstructingamodelforevaluationofthealternatives,weneedtoincorporatethegoalsofourstudy,thecriteriontobeused,andtherisksassociatedwiththeproject.Typically,foreconomicevaluations,theconstructedmodeliscomprisedofasetofmathematicalequations.Ideally,theseequationsshouldreflectthetimevalueofmoney,cashflowscheduleandquantitativeevaluationoftheuncertainties.Dependinguponthecomplexityofaproblemathand,thecomplexityofthemodelwillalsoincrease.1.1.7EvaluationofAlternativesUsingapropermathematicalmodel,eachalternativetoagivenproblemneedstobeevaluated.Applicationofthemodelmaybecomputationallyintensiveandmayrequiretheuseofcomputers.Oncetheevaluationiscomplete,thealternativescanberankedbasedupontheobjectivesoftheprojectsothataproperselectionofthebestalternativecanbemade.Thebestalternativeistheonewhichprovidesthemostdesirablesolutionunderagivencriterion.1.1.8ImplementationoftheBestalternativeOnceaproperselectionofanalternativeismade,thenextstepistoimplementthebestalternative.1.1.9Post-EvaluationoftheAlternativeAftertheimplementationofthebestalternative,itisimportanttorevaluatetheprojectafteracertaintimehaspassed.Thisevaluationinvolvescomparisonoftheobservedperformancewiththepredictedperformance.Ifthecomparisonisacceptable,nochangesneedtobemade.Ifthereisadifference,anassessmentneedstobemaderegardingthereasonsforthisdifference.Example1.1Asapetroleumengineer,youhavebeenaskedtoevaluatethefeasibilityofinstallingacompressorforagaswell.Explainallthenecessarydatayouwillcollect.Whatarethealternativesyouwillconsider?Whatcriterionwillyouusetoselectthebestalternative?SolutionToconsiderthefeasibilityofinstallingacompressor,weneedtoinvestigatetheadditionalproductionreceivedbyinstallingthecompressorversusthecostsassociatedwiththecompressor.Toassessthis,thefollowinginformationneedstobecollected:l.Thepresentcapacityofthewell.2.Theincrementalcapacityasaresultofthecompressor.3.Thepriceofgas.4.Theintakepressureofthepipeline.5.Thepriceofthecompressor,ifpurchased.6.Themaintenancecostofthecompressor.7.Thecostofleasingthecompressor.Alternativesl.Produceunderexistingconditions.2.Buyacompressor.3.Leaseacompressor.CriterionMaximizingtheprofitProblemCriterionPost-EvaluationImplementationAlternativesDataGoals/ObjectivesModelEvaluationFigure1.2DecisionMakingProcess1.2InteractionAmongVariousStepsExample1.2Asanengineer,youareinvestigatingthefeasibilityofimprovingtheproductivityofawellbystimulatingit.Basedonthecalculationsyouhaveperformed,youexpectthattheproductionwillincreaseby30bbls/day.Inreality,afterthestimulation[采]增产措施为改善油井生产条件，提高油井生产能力而采取的技术措施。例如压裂、补充谢孔、洗井、控制出沙量等技术，扩大油井映出油通道，提高油井渗透略，从而提高油井产量。treatment,theproductionhasgoneupby5bbls/dayduringthefirstweek.Whatpossibleactionswouldyoutake?Why?SolutionInthisinstance,theestimatedperformancedoesnotcomparewiththeobservedperformance.BasedonFig.l.2,somefeedbackinthedecisionmakingprocesswillbeneeded.Youmayconsiderseveraloptions:Optionl:Waitforalongerperiodtoseeiftheproductionimprovesafterthetreatmentbecomesmoreeffective.Insomeinstances,stimulatingthewellwillnotresultinanimmediateincreaseintheproduction.Itisbettertobepatient.Checkwiththeservicecompanytoseewhatisthetypicaltimeperiodduringwhichtheeffectshouldbeobserved.Option2:Checktheconsistencyoftheinputdatainthestimulationprogram.Severalsourcesoferrorarepossible:a)thepredicteddamage,say,basedonthewelltestdatamaynotbecorrect.Therefore,theimprovementisnotequaltotheprediction.Re-analyzetheestimateddamage;andb)therockpropertiesmaynotbeconducivetothisparticularstimulation.Investigatewhetherthisparticularrocktypeshouldbesubjectedtotheprescribedstimulationprogram.Additionalmineralogical(矿物学的)analysismaybeneededtoinvestigatethediscrepancy.(差异)Option3:Ifadditionaldataanalysisrevealsthatthestimulationtreatmentwasnottherighttreatmentforthiswell,exploreotherpossibilitiesofimprovingtheproduction.Thesepossibilitiesmayinclude:fracturing(压裂)thewell,orincreasingthenumberofperforations(射孔),changingthetubingsize,etc.Althoughthesepossibilitiesshouldhavebeeninvestigatedbefore,itisstillbettertoinvestigatethemnowratherthanignoringthemcompletely.1.3EconomicTerminology（术语）Aswediscussedintheprevioussections,anyeconomicdecisionmakinginvolveschoosingthealternativewhichisthemostdesirableundertherequiredobjectives.Althoughobjectivesforagivendecisionmakingprocesscanvary,themostcommonlyusedobjectiveismonetaryinnature.Thatis,wedecideonanalternativewhichwilleithermaximizethebenefit,minimizethecost,or,insomeinstances,maximizethedifferencebetweenthebenefitandthecost.1.3.1BenefitAsthenameindicates,benefitsarethemonetaryawardsreceivedasaresultofagiveninvestment.Typically,thebenefitsareaccruedoveraperiodoftimeasaresultofthepresentinvestment.Forexample,investingmoneyinanewlyimplementedwaterfloodingprojectisgoingtoresultinanincrementalproductionoverseveralyearsinthefuture.Thesebenefitsarecalledfuturebenefits.Thissectionexplainstheterminologymostcommonlyusedindescribingthebenefits,thecostsandthedifferencebetweenthem.Mostoftheeconomicproblemsencountered(遇到)areofthisnature:presentinvestmentfollowedbyfuturebenefits.However,insomeinstances,presentbenefitsarerelevanttoagivendecisionmaking.Intheseinstances,theinfluenceoftimeonmoneyisnotsignificant.Theseinstancesare:*Thereisnoinitialinvestmentintheproject.Onlytheoperatingcostsandotherfactorsarerelevant.Forexample,theoilcompanyinvestigatingthefeasibilityofmonitoringthedailyupkeep(维修)ofwellsbyitsownemployeesversussubcontracting(转包合同)ittoanothercompany.*Theinitialinvestmentsmaybedifferent.However,oncetheinitialinvestmentismade,theperformanceofthealternativesisassumedtobesimilar.Therefore,thealternativewiththelowestcostwouldbethemosteconomical.Forexample,ifacompanyisinvestigatingbuyingtrucksforitsemployeesforthefieldwork.Ifthetrucksfromdifferentmanufacturersareessentiallycomparableinperformanceandmaintenance,thenthetruckwiththelowestcostwouldbeselected.*Theexpectedfuturebenefitsaccrueoveraveryshortperiodoftime(typically,lessthanoneyear).Asaresult,theimportanceoftimecanbeignored,andthefuturebenefitscanbetreatedaspresentbenefits.Forexample,astimulationtreatmentforawellresultsinarelativelyquickbenefit.However,thebenefitmaynotlastforalongperiod.Theanalysistoinvestigatethefeasibilityofstimulation,therefore,canbeconductedbyassumingthebenefitstobepresentbenefits.

l.3.2CostsInanyeconomicanalysis,thecostscantakedifferentforms.Weprovideheresomebasicdefinitionsofcosts.FixedCostsFixedcostsarenotaffectedbytheactivitylevel(productionchanges)overafeasiblerangeofoperatingconditions.Thatis,theyarenotafunctionofproductionoroutput.Thesecostsremainfixed.Thesecoststypicallyincludeinsurancecosts,managementandadministrativesalariesandinterestpaidonborrowedcapital.VariableCostsVariablecostsvaryasafunctionofoperatingconditions.Thesecostsareaffectedbytherateofoutput.Forexample,theutility(公用)costs(electricity,water,etc.)andthelaborcostsarestronglydependentontheoverallproduction.IncrementalCostsIncrementalcostsrepresenttheadditionalcoststhatwillresultfrom

increasingtheoutputofthefield.Forexample,iftheproductionfromafieldistobeimprovedbydrillingtwoin-fillwells,thentheincrementalcostswillincludethecostsofdrillingthetwowells,aswellastheadditionalcostsassociatedwiththeoperationoftwowells.DirectCostsDirectcostsarethecoststhatcanbedirectlyallocatedtoaspecificoutput.Costsofutilitiesorlaboraregoodexamples,aswellasthemaintenanceofpumpingunits.IndirectCostsThesecostsaredifficulttoattributetoaspecificoutput.Thesecoststypicallyincludecostsofadministration,trainingprograms,legalfees,etc.SunkCostsSunkcostsrepresentanimportanteconomicconcept.Thesecostshaveoccurredinthepastprior,currentandfuturetodecisionmaking.Thesecostshavenorelevancetofuturedecisionmaking.Sincethesecostshavealreadybeencommitted,theybearnorelevancetoanyfuturedecisionmaking.Anyeconomicdecisiondependsonthefuturecostsversusfuturebenefits.Sincethesearethethingswecancontrolbasedonouranalysis.OpportunityCostAnopportunitycostisthecostonehastopaybyforegoingapotentialinvestmentwhichmayresultinsomebenefit.Apersonalexamplewouldbe,ifyoulendmoneytoyourfriendatazeropercentinterestratewhichyouwouldhaveinvestedinthebankat10%interestrate,thentheopportunitycostforyouis10%.LifeCycleCostLifecyclecostrepresentsthecostoftheentirelifecycleoftheproject.Forapetroleumreservoir,thiscostrepresentsthetotalcostinvolvedinareservoirstartingfromexplorationtillthetimeofabandonment.Wecandividethelifecyclecostintotwophases:explorationandexploitation.Theexplorationphaseincludesthecollectionofgeophysicalandgeologicaldataanddrillingfewexploratorywellstoassesstheeconomicfeasibilityofthefield.Iftheresultsfromtheexplorationarefavorable,theexploitationphasewillbeginwiththedrillingofdevelopmentwells,decidingontheoptimumstrategyofproduction,andexploitingthereservoirthroughprimaryandsecondaryrecoveryprocesses.l.3.3ProfitsProfitrepresentsthedifferencebetweenthebenefitsandthecosts.IfwedefinethebenefitsasB,thecostsasC,thenprofitcanbewrittenasP=B-C(l.l)whenagivenprojectdoesnothaveeitherfixedbenefitsorfixedcosts,anappropriatecriterionforeconomicdecisionmakingwouldbetomaximizetheprofitorthedifferencebetweenthebenefitsandthecosts.1.3.4InflationMoneyhastwofaces.Itiscapableofgeneratingmoneythroughinvestment(earningpowerofmoney).Ifyouinvestmoneyinaproductiveprojectitwillearnadditionalmoney.Wearegoingtodiscusstheearningpowerofthemoneyanditsimpactoneconomicanalysisinthenextchapter.Moneyalsohastheotherface.Itiscapableofbuyinggoods(buyingpowerofmoney).Inflationdealswiththebuyingpowerofmoney.Inflationreflectsthereducedbuyingpowerofmoneyasafunctionoftime.Inotherwords,thepriceofgoodsandservicesincreaseovertimeinsomecountries,veryslowly(i.e.,UnitedStates);insomecountries,ataveryrapidrate(i.e.,Brazil).Deflation（通货紧缩）,althoughnotverycommon,isoppositeofinflation.Itreflectsreductioninpricesasafunctionoftime.InChapter5wewilldiscussboththeinflationandthedeflationinmoredetail.Example1.3

Anoilwellrequirespumpingequipment.Twocompaniesofferthepumpforthewellwiththefollowingcharacteristics:

CompanyACompanyBInitialCost$50,000$50,000MaintenanceAgreement$5,000/year$3,000/yearPumpingCosts$0.50/bbl$0.60/bblUsingtheaboveinformation,answerthefollowing:a.Whicharethevariableandthefixedcosts?b.Ifthewellproduces40bbls/d,whichpumpispreferred?c.Whatshouldbetheproductionfromthewellatwhichbothpumpswilldeliverthesameeconomicperformance?SolutionFixedcosts:Initialcostofthepump,MaintenancecostsVariablecosts:Pumpingcostsb.Sincetheinitialcostsforboththepumpsarethesame,weneedonlytocomparetheannualcoststochoosetherightpump.PumpA:Annualcosts=5,000+40(bbl/d)×365(d/yr)×0.5(1/bbl)=$12,300PumpB:Annualcosts=3,000+40×365×0.6=$11,760SincethecostofoperatingpumpBissmaller,itshouldbeselectedc.IfweassumetheproductionisXbblsatwhichbothpumpswilloperateatthesamecostswecanwrite5,000+x(365)(0.5)=3,000+x(365)(0.6)Solvingforx,x=54.8bbls/d.Thatis,ifthewellproduces55bbls/d,youcanchooseeitherofthetwopumps.Example1.4Acopyingcompanyisinterestedinexpandingitsmarket.Presently,itcharges$.06/pageofcopying.Thecompanyaveragesabout25,000pagespermonthpermachine.Themaintenancecostofthemachineis$500permonthwithanadditionalcostof$.03/pageofcopying.Arecentmarketsurveyindicatesthatbyreducingthecostitchargestothecustomers,thecompanycangetabiggershareofthemarket.Forexample,forareductioninthepricebyonecentdecrement,thecompanycanaverageanadditional25,000pagespermachine.Whatcriterionshouldthecompanyusetodecidethepriceitchar