AReallyInconvenientTruth完整课件专题知识课件

AnInconvenientTruthAnInconvenientTruthAReallyInspiredbyatalkatTED

2023byKevinJ.SuraceCEOSeriousMaterialsUNIPCCPolicymakersandthepublicrelyoninformationfromtheUnitedNationsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeThelatest(2023)IPCCreportsshowthatclimatechangewillcausedireimpactsonhumanityButbecauseoftimeconstraints,politicalinfluence,andconsensusrequirements,theIPCCreportsreflectabest-caseanalysisofclimatechangeWewillconsidertheexpectedcaseAndshowthattheIPCCmodelsaretooconservativeBellCurveofPossibleOutcomes

IPCC BiblicalGameOverModelsIPCCDiscontinuousDiscontinuitiesarecommonthroughoutnatureH2O31F 32F 33FLiquidSolidActualArcticMeltvsIPCCModels0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age(yrBP)300500400600180200220240260280CO2ConcentrationCO2[ppmv]0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age(yrBP)300500400600180200220240260280Temp.inF°CO2ConcentrationProjectedConcentrationAfter50MoreYearsofUnrestrictedFossilFuelBurningCO2[ppmv]0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age(yrBP)300500400600180200220240260280Temp.inF°CO2ConcentrationToday’sCO2ConcentrationProjectedConcentrationAfter50MoreYearsofUnrestrictedFossilFuelBurningCO2[ppmv]0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age(yrBP)300500400600180200220240260280Temp.inF°CO2ConcentrationAfter45MoreYearsofcurrentenergyusepatternsToday’sCO2ConcentrationCO2[ppmv]IPCCClimateModelMITTemperatureStudyDanger2023MITStudy:95%chancethat“Business-as-usual”temperatureincreasewillexceed3.5ºC(6.3ºF)in2095MITTemperatureStudyDangeranda50%chancethattemperaturewillexceed5ºC(9ºF)!MITTemperatureStudyTemperatureImpactAnalogy+2°C20mphTemperatureImpactAnalogy+4°C40mphTemperatureImpactAnalogy+6°C60mphGreenlandIce1990’s:Lost90Macrefeet/yr2023:Lost180Macrefeet/yrAccelerationcontinuesIfallofGreenlandcollapse:

Oceansrise20+feetIfallicesheetscollapse:

Oceansrise280feetIPCCModelsdonotconsidericesheetcollapseIPCC:~2footriseby2100JimHansen,NASAClimateScientist:“Certain”itwillbe6+feetSource:NASA12,000yearsold100squaremiles,650feetthickModelssaidwouldlast10,000years2023:Brokeupin3daysWasacorkholdingback

land-basediceModelswerewrongLarson-BIceShelf

AntarcticaPineIsland&ThwaitesGlaciers

AntarcticaInplacefor20millionyears

Nowmelting&thinningatrecordpace1995:70Macrefeet/year2023:220Macrefeet/yearIftheycollapse:Searises6feetandspeedscollapseofWestAntarcticIceSheetNASA:WeakunderbellyinrecentradarimagesBritishAntarcticSurvey:“Thwaitesindangerofimminentcollapse”NocollapsemodelsexistinIPCC,sojustmodelslowmeltovertimeWestAntarcticIceSheetThwaitesisthecorkholdingitback

IfWestAntarcticsheetcollapses,

seariseisanother18feetIPCCModels:NoneOceansWillRise

BasedonActualHistoricalData–NotModelsCO2PPMFEETNorthAmerica

85MillionYearsAgoAmazonRains…orNot?WarmingshiftsrainawayfromAmazonMultipledroughtstakingtheirtoll3-5yearsofdroughtkillsmosttrees Treesdie,forestfiresrage,

CO2isreleasedPositivefeedbackloopIPCCModels:NotconsideredinbasemodelsPermafrostStoresmethaneinSiberiaandotherArcticregionsMeltingnowandalreadyreleasing50MtonsperyearEquivalentto1BTonsofCO2Acceleratingsinceavg.temp32°FnowEntireregiononvergeofcollapseContainstwiceasmuchCO2asthe

entireatmosphere!

Thisisanear-termtippingpointWilloverwhelmhumanactionstoreduceCO2emissionsIPCCModels:AssumesnocollapseMethaneReleasefromLakeOurOceansSince1850absorbed130BtonsCO2fromhumansGettingwarmerandmoreacidicsowillabsorblessCO2inthefutureMoreCO2changes/reducesorganismsTheydie,resultinginreductioninoceanCO2sinkEventually,oceancouldbecomeasourceofCO2IPCCModels:NotincludedOceansBroke55MYearsAgoMethaneClathrates(frozen)atoceanfloorOceantemperaturesroseafewdegreesClathratesshatteredReleasedupto10TrillionTonsMethaneGlobaltemprose18FrapidlyMassextinctionsAlsoTsunamisIPCCModels:NotincludedFact:TheChinaSyndromeAdding1~2coalplantsperweekSurpassedUSinCO2

NorthernChina(Mfgcentral):Nosun…everSternReviewforBritishGov’tAssumesworstcasescenariosSearisecouldbe15-20feetinafewdecadesFlorida,NYC,London,Tokyo…underwater1Bdisplaced,sick,deadFlooding,famineanddiseaseMassivewater&cropshortagesworldwide$20T+inworldwidedamages(Mitigationestimatedat$1T)WarsoverfoodandwaterChoicesToActorNottoAct:

4OutcomesNoClimateChange

YesClimateChangeWeActWeDoNOTActWasteMoneyInventnewtechnologyReducerelianceonoilSpendMoneySave1BLivesInventnewtechnologyReducerelianceonoilLifegoesonBillionsdieLargewarsHorriblefamineanddroughtEndofworldasweknowitTotaleconomiccollapseIPCCEstimatedCostsA)Mitigationnow:ReduceGDPby0.6%to3%

-or-

B)DoNothing:TotalEconomicCollapse???$

$$

0WhyDon’tWeAct?

Failureofthe“RiskThermostat”Werespondstrongesttothreatsthatare:ClimateChangeis:VisibleInvisibleWithhistoricalprecedentUnprecedentedImmediateDrawnoutWithsimplecausalityWithcomplexcausalityCausedbyanother“tribe”CausedbyallofusHavedirectpersonalimpactsUnpredictable&indirectimpactsDenialStrategiesDisplacedcommitment“Iprotecttheenvironmentinotherways”Condemntheaccuser“Youhavenorighttochallengeme”Denialofresponsibility“Iamnotthemaincauseofthisproblem”Rejectionofblame“Ihavedonenothingwrong”Ignorance“Ididn’tknow”Powerlessness“Ican’tmakeanydifference”Fabricatedconstraints“Therearetoomanyimpediments”Aftertheflood“Societyiscorrupt”Comfort“It’stoohardformetochangemybehavior”RiskstoYourBusinessDeclineindemandforcarbon-intensiveproductsandservicesClimatechangeimpactsonfacilities,employees,suppliers,andcustomersExtremeweather,drought,pandemic,war,sealevelriseDisruptionof“optimized”systemsWatchoutfor“Just-in-time”and“globalsupplychain”BuildrobustnessintoeveryprocessandproductTherewillbemanyunforeseenimpactsMustplanfortheunexpectedWhattoDo?WhatCanYouDo?AskyourchildrenforforgivenessBuyafuel-efficientcarEatlessbeefChangeyourlightbulbs,wearasweater,etc.Talktoyourfamily,friends,andcolleaguesGetyourcompanyto“GoGreen”TalktoyourelectedleadersWhatCanOurCountryDo?ImplementaCap&TradesystemortaxforCO2MandatoryenergyefficiencystandardsBannewcoal-firedpowerplantsPhaseoutexistingcoal-firedplantsEliminatesubsidiesforfossilfuelsGivesubsidies&incentivesforcleanenergyIncreaseenergy/climateresearchspending100xWhatCanOurCountryDo?

(Cont.)PhaseoutbeefPrepareforextremeweather,drought,globalinstability,agricultureimpacts,sealevelriseResearchgeo-engineeringremediesSupportglobalfamilyplanningSupport&signanaggressivetreatyinCopenhagenin2023(Kyotofollow-on)Geo-EngineeringIntentionalplanet-widechangesmeanttomitigateimpactsofglobalwarming

Probablyouronlyhopebecause,atthispoint,reducingemissionsalonewon’tbeenoughButwestillneedtodramaticallyreduceemissions!

Likechemotherapy,manygeo-engineeringsolutionshavebadside-effectsGeo-EngineeringExamplesBlockSunlightPutsmokeintheupperatmosphereor

useshipstocreatelow-levelcloudsStopthe