世经参考5美国农业

CropProductionNationalAgriculturalStatisticsServiceUSDAWashington,D.C.ReleasedJune11,2003,bytheNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS),AgriculturalStatisticsBoard,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture（USDA）.Forinformationon"CropProduction"call(202)720-2127,officehours7:30a.m.to4:00p.m.ET.1Winterwheatproductionisforecastat1.63billionbushels,up4percentfromtheMay1forecastand42percentabove2002.BasedonJune1conditions,theU.S.yieldisforecastat44.6bushelsperacre,up1.7bushelsfromthepreviousforecast.Grainareatotals36.4millionacres,unchangedfromMay1.HardRedproductionisup7percentfromamonthagoto1.01billionbushels.SoftRedisdown1percentfromlastmonth,andnowtotals368millionbushels.Whiteproductiontotals253millionbushels,up1percentfromlastmonth.2TheU.S.allorangeJune1forecastforthe2002-03cropis11.5milliontons,virtuallyunchangedfromtheMay1forecastbut8percentbelowlastseason'sutilization.Florida'sallorangeforecast,at201millionboxes(9.05milliontons),isup0.5percentfromthepreviousforecastbut13percentbelowlastseason'sfinalutilization.Ifattained,itwillbethelowestutilizedproductionsincethe186millionboxesofthe1998-99season.EarlyandmidseasonvarietiesinFloridaareforecastat112millionboxes(5.04milliontons),unchangedfromtheMay1forecastbut12percentlessthanlastseason.Harvestofthesevarietiesiscomplete.Florida'sValenciaforecastis89millionboxes(4.01milliontons),1percentabovethepreviousforecastbut13percentlessthanlastseason'sfinalutilization.Arizona,California,andTexasorangeproductionforecastsarecarriedforwardfromApril1.3

Floridafrozenconcentratedorangejuice(FCOJ)yieldisprojectedat1.52gallonsperboxat42.0degreesBrix.Theearlyandmidseasonportionisfinalat1.49gallonsperbox.TheprojectedseasonaverageyieldfortheValenciaorangesisloweredto1.56gallonsperbox.Allprojectionsofyieldassumethattheprocessingrelationshipsthisyearwillbesimilartothoseofthepastseveralyears.ThisreportwasapprovedonJune11,2003.4MayWeatherSummaryEastoftheRockies,theonlylarge-scaleareaofconcernfordrynesswasthewesternGulfCoastregion,wherelittlerainfell.Incontrast,theinteriorSouthandmuchoftheSoutheastwasinundatedwithnear-recordtorecordMayrainfall,causingfieldworkdelaysandlowlandflooding.Farthernorth,early-tomid-MayrainsslowedMidwesterncornandsoybeanplanting,butlargelyeradicatedlong-termprecipitationdeficits.DryweatherreturnedtotheCornBeltduringthesecondhalfofthemonth,allowingcornplantingtonearcompletion,5promotinganaccelerationofsoybeanplanting,andprovidingnearlyidealconditionsforsummercropgerminationandestablishment.MeanwhileonthenorthernandcentralPlains,soilmoistureremainedmostlyadequate,despitealate-monthdryingtrend.OnthesouthernPlains,late-monthshowerseasedstressonpastures,immaturewinterwheat,andrain-fedsummercrops.IntheWest,cool,showeryconditionsearlyinthemonthsuddenlyyieldedtohot,dryweather.Towardmonth'send,hightemperaturesboostedirrigationdemandsandleftsomedrylandcropsinneedofrain.6Late-MayheatoffsettheeffectsofearliercoolweatherinCaliforniaandtheNorthwest,resultinginnear-normalmonthlytemperatures.HeatwasmorepersistentacrosstheSouthwestandintheGulfCoastregion,producingmonthreadingsgenerally2to6degreesFabovenormal.Incontrast,persistentlycoolweatherblanketedthenorthernPlains,Midwest,andNortheast,slowingcropdevelopmentandholdingmonthlytemperaturesasmuchas6degreesFbelownormal.7MayCropSummaryMaybeganwithseasonallyheavyrainsinthePacificNorthwest,butwarmerweatherlaterinthemonthbenefitedcropdevelopment.Above-normaltemperaturesanddryweatherarrivedinCalifornia'sCentralValleyatmid-month,favoringfieldworkandcropdevelopment,particularlyforriceandcotton.SubsoilmoistureconditionsremaineddryinthecentralandnorthernRockiesandgeneratedincreasedirrigationdemandsasminimalrainfallwasrecorded.8Hot,dryweatherthroughMayboostedirrigationdemandsintheSouthwestasthoseconditionsprevailedinabandfromsouthernCaliforniatoTexasandOklahomaandthroughsouthernLouisiana,despitescatteredshowersacrossthewesternGulfCoastlateinthemonth.DailytemperaturesonthesouthernGreatPlainsreachedashighas100degreesFanddepletedtopsoilmoisture.SoilmoisturelevelsweremostlyadequateonthecentralGreatPlains,wherescatteredshowersandwarmtemperaturesfavoredwinterwheatdevelopmentandcropemergence.9Warm,dryweatherinthenorthernGreatPlainsaftermid-monthpromotedcropemergenceanddevelopment.RainacrosstheCornBeltslowedprogressearlyinthemonth,butmild,dryweatheraftermid-monthspurredwinterwheatdevelopment,favoredspringcropemergence,andallowedgrowerstoaccelerateplantingofcornandsoybeans,particularlyinIndiana,Michigan,andWisconsin.ContinuedwetsoilsandcoolconditionsslowedfieldworkandcropdevelopmentinpartsoftheGreatLakesandOhioValleyregions.10FieldworkwashamperedbycontinuedwetconditionsacrossawideswathoftheinteriorSouth,fromthenorthernDeltatotheTennesseeValleyuntillateinMay.FieldworkwassignificantlyaffectedbypersistentrainfallalongtheAtlanticCoastalPlainsduringMay.SoilmoisturewasadequateinFloridawithheavyrainfallreportedinmanyareas.AstheplantingseasongotunderwayintheNortheast,fieldworkslowlygainedmomentumaswetconditionspersistedmostofMay.11Cornplantingwas95percentcompleteasofJune1,aheadoflastyear'spaceby3percentagepointsbut1pointbehindthe5-yearaverage.Thecropwas81percentemerged,9pointsaheadoflastyearbut4pointsbehindthe5-yearaverage.ProducersintheCornBeltmaderapidplantingprogressearlyinMay,butmid-monthrainsslowedactivity.Thepaceoffieldworkacceleratedagainatmonth'sendasclearbutcoolweathercoveredtheregion.12AsMaydrewtoaclose,plantingwascompleteinKansasandTexas,andvirtuallycompleteinIowa,Minnesota,andNebraska,whilehalfofthe18major-producingStateswereeitheratoraheadoftheirnormalplantingpace.Pennsylvaniaremained14