CED-通过弹性供应链实现自由但安全贸易的路线图（英）

SUSTAININGCAPITALISM

Aseriesfocusedonnonpartisan,

reasonedsolutionsinthenation’s

interesttothecentralchallenges

wefaceinordertoprovide

prosperityforallAmericans.

ARoadMaptoAchievingFreebutSecure

TradewithResilientSupplyChains

Introduction

Thetumultuousdisruptionofglobalsupplychains,firstcrippledbythepandemicshutdowns

andthenfurtherdisruptedbywarinEurope,hasacceleratedthecollapseoftheever-weak-

ening,decades-longconsensusforglobaltradeandeconomicglobalization.Frompan-

demic-relatedlockdownsaroundtheworldtoUSportbottlenecksandrisinggasolineand

foodprices,supplychainchallengeshavefilledheadlinesandworriedbusinesses,consum-

ers,andpublicpolicyofficials.“Just-in-time”productionoverthelast30yearshasreliedon

globalsupplychainsthatneededtobereliable,secure,andefficient.Thepandemicandthe

subsequentlockdownsreducedeconomicactivityaroundtheworld,idlingpartsofsupply

chainsthatotherpartsneededtomaintainproduction,underminingtheresiliencyofsupply

chainsinaninterconnectedworld.

Now,thatworldhaschanged.Theinitialimpactofthepandemic,thewarinUkraine,exten-

siveeconomicsanctions,andRussia’sweaponizationofsupplychainshasbeencompounded

bygloballaborshortages,China’szero-COVIDlockdownsandglobaltradeinstitutions’

inabilitytoprovidealevelplayingfieldforcompetitionasChina’seconomydeveloped.

Thesecrosscurrentshavecoalescedtofurthererodethealreadyweakeningconfidencein

globalsupplychainsandaglobaltradingsystem.Formanycompanies,thatmeansapush

towarddiversificationandresilience,evenredundance,intheirsupplychainmanagement

practices,includingbringingsupplychainsclosertocustomers,reversingearliertrends

towardglobalization.Andformajortradingcountries,andparticularlyfortheUS,that

meansafurtherintensificationoftradepolicyfocusingonregionalandbilateraltradeand

aturntowardmorebroadconsiderationofon-shoringmanufacturingofcriticaltechnolo-

giesandcomponents.

Inshort,thecurrentsupplychainchallengesareatestofeconomicglobalization,andthecrisis,whichiscontributingtoinflationandprojectionsofrecessionathomeandabroad,hasdemandedtheattentionofbusinessandgovernmentleaders.InarecentsurveyofCEOsbyTheConferenceBoard,almosthalfofCEOssaytheyarediversifyingglobalsourcecountriesoverthelongtermintheirsupplychains.Additionally,morethanone-thirdofCEOsreportedthatthebiggestchallengetheyfacefromeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaareinputshortagesandsupplychainissues.1Furthermore,inthesamesurvey,CEOsandtheC-suiteexpresshighlevelsofworryoverrisingUS/Chinatensionandthepotentialdivisionoftheworldintocompetingeconomicblocs(i.e.,theUSanditsalliesvs.Chinaanditsallies)—anissuelikelytohaveasignificantnegativeimpactonglobaltradeandeconomicgrowthforyearstocome.

Asformajorpublicpolicyleaders,EuropeanCentralBankPresidentChristineLagardehasspokenof“theshiftsfromdependencetodiversification,fromefficiencytosecurity,andfromglobalizationtoregionalization.”2Similarly,TreasurySecretaryJanetYellenhasdefinedUSaimsas“freebutsecuretrade.Wecannotallowcountriestousetheirmarketpositioninkeyrawmaterials,technologies,orproductstohavethepowertodisruptoureconomyorexerciseunwantedgeopoliticalleverage,”aworrythatleadstoworkwith“countriesweknowwecancounton.Favoringthe‘friend-shoring’ofsupplychainstoa largenumberoftrustedcountries,sowecancontinuetosecurelyextendmarketaccess,willlowertheriskstooureconomy,aswellastoourtrustedtradepartners.”3Majorlegis- lationisalsounderconsiderationintheUSCongressthataddressesinvestmentandcom-petition,includingon-shoringcriticalmanufacturingsuchassemiconductors.FortheUS, theissueisnotonlyglobalbutlocal:in2015,43percentofUSworkerswereconnectedinsomewaytosupplychains,eitheratleadfirmsorsuppliers.4

ThisSolutionsBriefwillexaminehowthecrisiscametobe;considertheoptionsofreshoring,nearshoring,andfriend-shoring;considertradepolicymorebroadly;andthenexamineanimportantspecialcase,thatofsemiconductors.TheSolutionsBrief’sobjec-tiveistoprovidearoadmapforachievingresilientsupplychainsandfreebutsecuretrade,sothattheUSeconomycancontinuetogrowandprosperandprovideequalopportunityforallAmericansduringtheseverychallengingtimes.

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3AROADMAPTOACHIEVINGFREEBUTSECURETRADEWITHRESILIENTSUPPLYCHAINS

InsightsforWhat’sAhead

Recommendationsforachievingfreebutsecuretradewith

resilientsupplychains

Whiletheissueofsupplychainsdirectlyaffectsthestrategyandbusinessmodelsofprivatesectorcompanies,thechallengeisonethatcanonlybesolvedbycollaborationbetweenprivateandpublicsectorleaders,giventhecross-sectionofpublicandprivatesectorrolesandresponsibilitiesforthegrowthoftheUSeconomyand,consequently,intheproductionandflowofgoodsandservicesintheUSdomesticeconomyandtheglobaleconomy.

Followingarerecommendationsonhowtoachievefreebutsecuretradewith

resilientsupplychains:

1.Establishformalconsultation/collaborationgroupsforleadersinthepublic/privatesectorstofullyunderstandglobalsupplychainsanddetermineprioritiesforsupplychainchallenges

•Collaboratemorecloselywithbusinesstoidentifysourcesofpotentialweaknessesinsupplychains:

oEstablishcriteriaofpotentialrisk,includingthreatstonationalsecurity,possiblepredatorypricing,threatstopublichealth,possibleeconomicdisruption,andconsiderationsofmarketstrengthsandweaknessesofUSindustries.

oDeveloppracticalsolutionsincludingon-shoring,nearshoring,andfriend-shoring.

oPrioritizesupplychainchallengesforsemiconductorsandcriticalminerals,giventheirsignificantroleintheUSabilitytocompeteandthriveintheglobaleconomy.

—Considertaxandotherincentives.

—Streamlineregulation.

—Trainworkersthroughpublicandprivateinitiativesforpositionsinthe

semiconductorindustry.

—Seekalternativeon-shoringandfriend-shoringsupplychainsourcesof

bothrareearthandessentialmineralsneededforstayingcompetitiveintheadvanced,digitizedeconomies.

oEstablishformalconsultativegroupsofportauthoritiesandtheircustomerstoestablishclearprioritiesforefficientandeffectiveoperations.

2.Improvefeasibilityofpracticalsolutionsdevelopedbyprivateandpublicsectorleadersastheyanalyzeeachuniquesupplychainriskandprioritizeanddeterminesolutions

•Makereshoringmorefeasible:

oEliminateorstreamlineredtape/unnecessaryregulationthatpreventsfactoriesfromlocatingintheUS.

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oConsidertaxcreditsforlocationoffactorieshereinawaythatdistortsmarketsaslittleaspossible;considerdomesticsubsidizedproductionforspecialcases(e.g.,semiconductors).

oTargetinvestmentstoimproveroadsandports,includingsmoothmultimodalconnectionsatports;includeasupplychainfocusinBipartisanInfrastructureLawspending;solvethetruckdrivershortage;trainmoreAmericansforcareersinlogistics.

•Expandnearshoringopportunities:

oConveneaspecial“ThreeAmigos”(US,Mexico,Canada)postpandemicsummitonsupplychains,seekingwaystostrengthenlinksandreducebarrierstotrade.

oEstablishatri-nationalprivatesectoradvisorycouncilunderUnitedStates-Mexico-CanadaAgreement(USMCA)toadvisethethreegovernmentsonnearshoringopportunitiesandNorthAmericaneconomicintegration.

oFocusUSMCACommercialOperationsAdvisoryCouncilonsupplychains.

oHelptheDominicanRepublic-CentralAmericaFreeTradeAgreement(CAFTA-DR)countriestogrowtheireconomiesbybuildingtheirinfrastructureforresiliencyandintegratemorefullyintoUSsupplychains,buildingpotentialforsurgecapacity,withaparticularfocusonhealthcare.

oReengagewithSouthAmericaasanopportunitytoexpandUStraderelationships,startingwiththecountrieswithwhichtheUShasfreetradeagreements(Chile,Colombia,Panama,andPeru).

•Strengthenfriend-shoringopportunities:

oBuildcountrypartnershipswithsupportivecountries.ManycountriesinAfrica,Asia,Europe,LatinAmerica,andtheMiddleEastwouldqualify,startingwiththosewithwhomwealreadyhavetradeand/orsecurityagreements.

oFindwaystohelpnewcountriesbecome“friends”insupplychains—strengtheneconomicassistancetobuildlinkstoUSsupplychains

(e.g.,helpingreachUSstandardsonlaborrights,foodsafety,etc.),includingtargetedassistancefromUSAID,EconomicSupportFunds,anddevelopmentfinance.

oDeepenthemissionoftheUSForeignCommercialServicetoincludeknowledgeofsupplychainsofUSproducerstohelpUScompaniesbetterunderstandforeignsupplychains.

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•TheUSshoulddevelopaplanforareformedWorldTradeOrganization,inparticularitsdisputeresolutionmechanisms,andcontinuetopromotethebenefitsofanopenglobaltradingsystem.

•TheUSshouldconsideropeningnegotiationsforadditionalbilateralandregionaltradeagreements,withUSMCA,whichpassedtheCongresswithbipartisanandlaborsupport,asapossiblemodeltoattractdomesticsupport.

•TheUSshouldlaunchdiscussionstojointheComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnership,thefollow-onagreementtotheTrans-PacificPartnership(TPP).

•TheUSneedstoprioritizeprotectionofintellectualproperty.

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•Increasegovernmentfundingofbasicresearch,whichhaslaggeddespitetheimportantrolethisfundinghasinensuringUScompetitiveness.Increasedpublicsectorfundingshouldincludefurtherinvestmentsincriticaltechnologiessuchasadvancedmaterialsmanufacturing,biotech,power-storagesolutions,semiconduc-tors,AI,quantumcomputing,andadvancedcybernetworking.

•IncreaseprivatesectorR&Dfundingtomeetthecompetitivedemandsofeffectivelyandefficientlyreshoringandnearshoringadvancedmanufacturingcapacity.

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•Economiclockdownsinresponsetothepandemichelpedtriggerthecurrentglobalsupplychaindisruptions.Manyimportantlessonscanbedrawnfromthecurrentpandemicthatcanhelpavoidsuchadraconianresponsetothenextmajorpublichealthchallenge,including:

oDetermineessentialbusinessesPrivatesectorleadersshouldcoordinatewithpublicsectorleadersonthefederal,regional,andstatelevelstousethelessonsoftheCOVID-19pandemictodetermineandprioritizeessentialbusinessesthatwouldneedtooperateinapublichealthemergencyandtherequirementsthattheworkforcewouldneedtooperatein

personandremotely.

oDeterminebusinessplansforfuturedisruptionsBusinessesshouldupdatetheirbusinessplans/playbooksnowwithlessonslearnedforfuturedisruptionsandcoordinatewithstateandlocalofficialstoensurethatessentialbusinessinfrastructurethatrequirespublicsectorsupporttocontinueoperatinginafuturepublichealthcrisisisaddressed.(SeeCEDSolutionsBrief:

Preparingfor

theNextPublicHealthCrisis:LessonsfromthePandemic.

)

DecadesintheMaking

TheWorldTradeOrganization’s2021GlobalValueChainDevelopmentreport5givesacomprehensivestudyofvaluechainsacrossindustriesaroundtheworld.Inthefirstdecadeofthiscentury,supplychainslengthened,withtwo-thirdsofglobaltradecrossingatleasttwobordersbeforeaproductwasreadyforsale.Supplychainsofthatlength,bydefinition,areriskier.Theydemandefficienttransportationnetworks,smoothcrossingofborders,andacommitmentbynationstoopentrade.

AfterthefinancialcrisisandtheGreatRecession,thispatternstartedtochange.AsChinagrew,itbecamenotmerelyanexporterbutalsoaproducerforitsownwealthierdomes-ticmarket.Othercountriesexperiencedsimilarchanges,andasglobaltradenegotiationsfounderedinfavorofregionalnegotiations,therebeganacentrifugalpressuretowardgreaterregionalization—with,however,manyWesterncompaniesstillhighlydependentonsupplychainsinChina.Chinahasbeenthelargestexporterofgoodssince2009andthelargesttradingnationintheworldsince2013.Formanycompanies,Chinaoffersadeepandstrongvaluechainofsuppliersandalargepoolofskilledlabor(Foxconn’siPhoneCitycampusreportedlyemploys200,000people),makingitdifficulttofindalternativelocations,6conditionswhichhelpexplainwhyinalate2021survey,83per-centofmembersoftheAmericanChamberofCommerceinChinahadnoplanstoshiftoperationsoutofChina.7

However,startingaround2017astheUSwithdrewfromtheTrans-PacificPartnership (whichexcludedChina)andastheUS-Chinatraderelationshipbegantofray,somecompaniesbeganthinkingmoredeeplyaboutsupplychaindiversification,oftentoa“China+1”strategy.Vietnamwasamajorbeneficiaryofthischange,risingfromfifth rankedintheUSgoodstradedeficitfiguresinDecember2017tonumberthree,justbelowMexico,today.8Butothercountriesbenefitedaswell.

Then,theworldfacedaperfectstormofevents.Atleastfourfactorshavecontributedtothecurrentglobalsupplychaincrisisandchangesintradingpatterns.

1ChangesintheUS-ChinatradeandstrategicrelationshipThesechangespredatethepandemic,astradetensionswithChinain2018and2019madesomeinvestorsnervous.Manycompaniesareintheworld’slargestconsumermarketbecauseofopportunitiesthere(“inChinaforChina”),butChinesepoliciesbegantoraiseconcernsastheyconstructedroadblockstopenetrationbyforeigncom-paniesintothedomesticconsumermarkets.Furthermore,forthoseforwhominvestmentsinChinaprincipallyinvolveexportingproducts(orcomponentsofproducts)totheUSorothercountries,tradeissues—includingcurrencymanipu-lation,subsidiesforChinesecompanies,andotherunfairtradingpractices—andthepandemicexposedvulnerabilitiesinglobalsupplychains,andUSconsum-ersfacedshortagesofconsumergoodsfromChinaandothercountries.ChinaremainsafocusofUStradeandforeignpolicy.9SomesupplychainsstillrelyheavilyonChinaandarevulnerableatasinglepoint10—ariskysituationforanybusinessrelyingonthatsupplychain.

China’sowneconomychangeddramaticallyinthe2010s,withmajorimplicationsforglobalsupplychains.Chinaisnowoftenthemarketforaproductratherthansimplytheexporterofaproduct.Insteadofassemblingproductsbasedoninputs

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thatmayhavecomefromothercountries,Chinanowoftencontrolsthecompletevaluechain,leadingtoasituationinwhichthereisa“complexvaluechain”inChina,butitisnotstrictlyaglobalvaluechain.11

Further,ChinaisastrategicglobalcompetitoroftheUS.China’sBeltandRoadInitiativeseekstoshiftglobaltradepatternsinChina’sfavorandtoleveragethoseshiftstostrengthenChina’sbilateralandregionalrelationswiththecorre-spondingcountries.ChinacompetesformineralsinAfricaandcontrolsmostoftheworld’sminedoutputofrareearthminerals.Italsodominatesminingand/orprocessingofkeymineralssuchaslithiumandcobalt,allcriticalmineralsneededtoperformandprosperinatechnologicaladvancedeconomy.12ChinaandtheUSarerivalsinthePacificandelsewhere,withparticularflashpointsintheSouthandEastChinaSeasandtheTaiwanStrait.ItmakesgoodstrategicsensetoavoidoverdependenceonChinaforsupplychains,particularlyformaterialsforcriticalindustries.ThisisparticularlypoignantwithregardtoTaiwanandthehighconcentrationofthesemiconductorindustryontheisland.TheuncertaintyandtensionssurroundingtheChina/Taiwanrelationship,particularlyinthewakeofRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,haveonlyfurtheredtheerosionoftrustinChinaastheworld’spremiermanufacturinghub.TheUS,itsalliesandpartners,andbusinessleadersshouldbeacceleratingthebuildingofmoretraderesilienceintotheirtradingdependencieswithChina.

TheUSgoodstradedeficitwithChinawas$418.23billionin2018,fellto$342.63billionin2019asUStariffsonChinesegoodstookhold,fellfurtherto$308.14billionin2020duringthepandemic,andthengrewsharplyto$353.49billionin2021—aboveits2019level.13Globally,evenduringtheheightofthepandemic,Chinawasaresilientexporter;itsexportsfellinthefirstquarterof2020butstabilizedbythesecondquarterandreboundedbythethirdquarterofthatyear—averydifferentscenariothaninmanyothereconomies.WhiletheUSgrowthratewasnegativeforbothimportsandexportsin2020,China’stradevolumesinbothcategoriesincreased.14

2ThepandemicGlobally,thepandemicacceleratedthetrendtogreaterregion-alizationasbordersandeconomiesclosed.Morerecently,lockdownsinChinatocombattheOmicronvarianthavehadstrongglobalrippleeffectsformanygoods,fromtoystoautostosmartphones.Onepandemic-relatedshutdowninYantianportinShenzhen,GuangdongProvince,decreasedimportvolumesinsouthernCaliforniaportsby14percent.Shortagesaffectmanyotherproducts,includingtechnologyproducts,aswell.Asanexample,alockdowncoveringafactoryinShanghaihasledtoashortageofOmnipaque,aniodinatedcontrastmediumformedicalimaging,inNewYork.15

Oneofthemostimportantlessonsthatcanbelearnedfromtheresponsetothecurrentpandemicistodeterminealternativestoeconomiclockdownsasaresponsetothenextpublichealthcrisis.Economiclockdownsinresponsetothepandemictriggeredanddeepenedthecurrentglobalsupplychaindisruptions.IntheUSduringtheearlystageofthepandemic,one-sixthoftheeconomywasidledandemploymentfellby14percent,nearlydoublethe

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impactofthefinancialcrisisandoverhalfthe23percentfallduringtheGreatDepressionof1929–1932.

Twowaystoavoidsuchadraconianresponsetothenextmajorpublichealthchallenge:

aDetermineessentialbusinessesPrivatesectorleadersshouldcoordinatewith

publicsectorleadersonthefederal,regional,andstatelevelstousethelessonsoftheCOVID-19pandemictodetermineandprioritizeessentialbusinessesthatwouldneedtooperateinapublichealthemergencyandtherequirementsthattheworkforcewouldneedtooperateinpersonandremotely.

bDeterminebusinessplansforfuturedisruptionsBusinessesshouldupdate

theirbusinessplans/playbooksnowwithlessonslearnedforfuturedisruptionsandcoordinatewithstateandlocalofficialstoensurethatessentialbusinessinfrastructurethatrequirespublicsectorsupporttocontinueoperatinginafuturepublichealthcrisisisaddressed.

3Russia’sinvasionofUkraineThisconflictforcedarapiddisruptionandreevalu-ationofsupplychains,mostcriticallyinenergy.ButRussiaandUkrainearealsomajorproducersofotherimportantinternationalcommoditiessuchasgrains,aluminum,steel,palladium,neon,andplatinum;thesesupplychainshavebeendisruptedbysanctions,war,andmaritimeblockadeintheBlackSea.Further,railshipmentsfromChinatoEuropehadbeengrowingrapidlybeforethepandemicbutarenowdisruptedasgoodsfortheEUcannottransitRussiabylandorair.Thewaraffectsallcountries,notmerelythoseintheWest,16forinstancewithrespecttofoodsuppliestoAfricaandtheMiddleEast.

ProfessorTinglongDaiofJohnsHopkinsUniversityarguesthattheRussian invasionofUkrainewillpermanentlyshifttheglobalchainandcreatean“economicIronCurtain.”InDai’sview,Westerncompanieswillnolongerbeable toavoidconsideringgeopoliticalriskintheirdecisionsaboutsupplychains,17 includingrisksfromoperatingincountrieswithauthoritariangovernments.Thispushescompaniestowardsupplychaindiversification,inessencetowardamore regionalizedsystem.AJune2022pollofglobalCEOsbyTheConferenceBoardshowedthat83percentfearthereemergenceofcompetingeconomicblocs,and43percentarehighlyconcernedaboutthisdevelopment.18

4ThetransitiontostakeholdercapitalismThisshiftdrivesagreaterfocusoneconomic,social&governance(ESG)issues,affectingsupplychains.Consumers increasinglydemandtoknowmoreaboutacompany’ssocialcommitment,and thisincludesitscommitmenttoresponsibleandethicalsourcing.Additionally, importantstepstomovetowardagreenereconomyraisesignificantissuesonsupplychains.Forinstance,rareearthmineralsareusedintheproductionofelectricvehiclesandotheradvancedtechnologies.Chinacontrols85percentof refiningofrareearths,19makingsupplychaindiversificationandresiliencedifficult intheshorttermandshiftingmoreemphasisondevelopingnewsourcingfrom“friends”inthemediumterm.

Similarly,theshippingindustryisagloballysignificantexporterofcarbon.TheWorldEconomicForumhasclaimedthatshippingistheworld’ssixthbiggest

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Source:GlobalSupplyChainPressureIndex(GSCPI),NewYorkFed

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emitterofgreenhousegases(asmuchasGermanyandtheNetherlandscombined);decarbonizingshippingmightcostupto$1.5trillionby2050.20Here,shiftingsupplychainsfromglobaltoregionalcouldhaveapositiveeffectongreenhousegasreduction.Shiftingtoagreeneconomywillrequiredeepandcarefulanalysisofsupplychains.

Eachfactorwouldhavebeensignificantonitsown;together,theyelevatesupplychainadequacyandresiliencytoanationalcrisis.Eachrequiresbusinessandgovernmentleaderstotakeahardlookatsupplychains,withaneyetodiversificationandresilienceandtolookmoredeeplyintosupplychains.Whomakesthecomponentproducts?Fromwheredorawmaterialscome?Whereisthesystemmostlikelytobreakdown?Perhapsmostimportantly,whatshort-termcostsarecompanieswillingtoassumetopromoteabetterlong-termoutlook?WhatUSgovernmentpoliciesareneededtosupportresilientandreliablesupplychains?

TradeTrendsSincethePandemic

TraderemainsvitaltotheUSandglobaleconomyandUSandglobalgrowth.Effortstorestricttradewill,therefore,lowerglobalgrowth.Afterfallingsharplyin2020,thevalueoftotalglobaltrade(goodsandservices)increasedtoanestimated$28.5trillionin2021,accordingtotheUNConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)—25percentabove2020and13percenthigherthantheprepandemicyearof2019.21UNCTADpre-dictsthattherateofgrowthintradewillslowin2022asforecastsindicateloweroverallgrowth.Itisclearthattradehasreboundedstrongly.But,itisalsoclearthereisabroadtrendtowardregionalismandawayfromglobalism—atrendthatwillreduceoverallglobalgrowth,and,ifcostsareshiftedtocountrieswithhigherinputcosts,couldrein-forceinflationarypressures.

StillPressured

Globalsupply-chainproblemseaseinMaybutarenearhistoricalhighs

Source:GlobalSupplyChainPressureIndex(GSCPI),NewYorkFed

Congestionattheports,exacerbatedbytheimpactofthepandemic,isoneofthe

maindriverstofindingalternativetradepatternsandmoreresilientandefficientsup-plychains.22TheUSDepartmentofAgricultureestimatesthattheglobalcontainerfleetincluded5,587shipsin2021,whichcancollectivelycarry24.7millionTEU(“twenty-footequivalentunit,”oneshippingcontainer).23Butthoseshipsaretakinglongertodelivertheirgoods,oftenwaitingoutsidecrowdedports.Bloombergcalculatedthatattheworstoftheportbacklogearlierthisyear,over500ships—9percentoftheglobalfleet—wereawaitingclearancetoenteraport.24This