国际经济秩序演变与百年未有之大变局

F740

A

1006-1894(2021)01-0003-10

2020

2019

(IMF)

2020

-5.9%,

®2020

GDP

37%0

2020

11

2020

10

5

/zh/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

.

2021

1

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1975

IMF

https://www.sohu.eom/a/423277690_362042

.

［NJ.

2018-06-24,

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2021

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1900

1876~1900

1899

930

3

370

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100

1,470

1

1876

1900

10.8%90.4%+79.6%

56.8%9&9%

+42.1%

51.5%

56.5%

+5.1%

100%

100%

—

27.5%

27.2%

-0.3%

[M]

1959:68O

[M].

1959:68-69.

2021

1

5

1919

1918

1/3

1919

1913

57%;

1920

87%O

1/8

1/2

3/4

2/5

1/3

1/3

3/5

1/7

3

1924

1929

1918-1938

20

[M].

1965:3-4.

[M].

1965:73,105,147,150.

2021

1

•6•

1920~1921

1929~1933

1937-1939

1929-1933

4

15

17

16

18

18

20

19

1940

[M].

2000:545.

2021

1

•7•

2008

20

[M].

2001:7.

[J].

2002:4

.

[M].

1999:108-109.

2021

1

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2018

1960-2016

7

71

50

3.5%,

50

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11

20

50

400

5

7

6

6

IMF

MckinseyGlobalInstitute.Outperformers:High-Growth

EmergingEconomiesandtheCompaniesThatPropelThem[R].

September2018:1.

MckinseyGlobalInstitute.Outperformers:High-Growth

EmergingEconomiesandtheCompaniesThatPropelThem[R].

September2018:4.

2021

1

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1945

3

1945

I960

1）

2

1960

3

1946-1960

I960

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1960

2008

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2021

1

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1975

1998

FDI

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FDI

2021

1

11•

2020

2008

2008

EvolutionoftheInternationalEconomicOrderandGreatChangeUnseen

inaCentury

LEIDa

CHUXiao

Abstract:Theworldisexperiencing

changeunseeninacentury”.Protectionismandunilateralism,which

havebeenturningintothemainoptionsforwesterncountries,havebroughtalotofinstabilitiesanduncertainties

tothefutureworldeconomyundertheimpactofCOVID-19.IfChina,atthishistoricalturningpoint,maintains

thegoodmomentumineconomicdevelopmentandrespondtothechallengesofthissecularchangesuccessfully,it

willbeconfidenttosaythatopportunitywindowsforChina5sdevelopmentarestillopen.Webelieveitisessential

togobacktothebasicsofeconomy,andclarifythe

fromtheperspectiveoftheevolutionary

pathoftheinternationaleconomicorder.ThepreviouswcenturychangeMhasseenthe

ofimperialist

war^^shiftcapitalistcolonialsystemtothenewinternationaleconomicorder.Wepredictthatthenextwcentury

change”impliesadjustmentandimprovementoftheexistinginternationaleconomicorder.Therefore,tounderstand

howthecurrentinternationaleconomicorderworksandevolvesandwhatmightcausedifferencesanddisputes,are

themostfundamentalissuesregardingthefutureoftheworldeconomy.

Key