亚开行-网上招聘会的影响：来自孟加拉国的实验证据（英）

THEIMPACTOFAN

ONLINEJOBFAIR

EXPERIMENTALEVIDENCEFROMBANGLADESH

NorihikoMatsudaandRyotaroHayashi

NO.689

July2023

ADBECONOMICS

WORKINGPAPERSERIES

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries

TheImpactofanOnlineJobFair:

ExperimentalEvidencefromBangladesh

NorihikoMatsudaandRyotaroHayashi

No.689|July2023

TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBoritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

NorihikoMatsuda(nmatsuda@)

isanassistantprofessorofeconomics,Florida

InternationalUniversity.RyotaroHayashi

(rhayashi@)isasocialsectoreconomist,

HumanandSocialDevelopmentSectorsGroup,

AsianDevelopmentBank.

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

CreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)

©2023AsianDevelopmentBank

6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity,1550MetroManila,Philippines

Tel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444

Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2023.

ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(electronic)

PublicationStockNo.WPS230227-2

DOI:/10.22617/WPS230227-2

TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.

Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.

ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)

/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.Byusingthecontentofthispublication

,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseat/terms-use#openaccess.

ThisCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedtoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial.

Pleasecontactpubsmarketing@ifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo.

CorrigendatoADBpublicationsmaybefoundat/publications/corrigenda.

Note:

Inthispublication,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars.

CONTENTS

TABLESANDFIGURESiv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSvi

ABSTRACTvii

ABBREVIATIONSviii

1.INTRODUCTION1

2.RESEARCHDESIGN3

StudyContext:LaborMarketsinBangladesh3

Intervention:OnlineJobFair3

RecruitmentandRandomization4

Data5

Timeline5

3.DESCRIPTIVESTATISTICS5

Jobseekers5

ParticipationintheFair5

4.THEEFFECTSOFTHEFAIR7

MatchesthroughtheFair7

EstimationResults7

MechanismandDiscussions10

5.COST-EFFECTIVENESS13

6.CONCLUSIONS13

APPENDIXES

A.AdditionalFiguresandTables15

B.RandomizationandAttritionBalancesbetweenTreatmentandControlJobseekers23

C.RobustnessChecks:EstimationResultswithoutControls25

D.CostBreakdownandComparisonwithanIn-personJobFair27

REFERENCES29

TABLESANDFIGURES

TABLES

1SummaryStatisticsofJobseekers6

2EffectsoftheOnlineJobFair8

3DifferencesinWages,JobTenure,Skill-MatchQuality,andJobSatisfactionbetween9

EmployedTreatmentandControlJobseekers

A1ListofJobTitles16

A2SummaryStatisticsofEmployersandJobs17

A3WhatTypesofJobseekersAreMoreLikelytoParticipate18

A4AverageTreatmentEffectsoftheFairontheTreated19

A5AdditionalResultsontheEffectsoftheJobFair20

A6ReasonsWhyJobOffersWereDeclined20

A7HeterogeneityoftheEffectsbyBaselineEmploymentStatus21

A8Heterogeneity:ComparisonsofEmployedTreatmentandControlJobseekersbyBaseline22

EmploymentStatus

B1RandomizationCheck:BalancebetweenTreatmentandControlJobseekers23

B2BalanceonSurveyAttritionbetweenTreatmentandControlJobseekers24

C1RobustnesswithoutControls:EffectsoftheOnlineJobFair25

C2RobustnesswithoutControls:DifferencesinWages,JobTenure,Skill-MatchQuality,26

andJobSatisfactionbetweenTreatmentandControlJobseekers

D1CostBreakdownandComparisonbetweentheOnlineJobFairandaCounterfactual28

In-PersonFair

TablesandFiguresv

FIGURES

1JobFairParticipationandMatches7

2Jobseekers’ExperiencesintheFair11

A1JobSearchChallengesforJobseekers15

A2OnlineJobFair15

A3StudyTimeline16

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

WearedeeplyindebtedtoB,especiallyKaziLatifurRahman,ProkashRoyChowdhury,andMohammadAliFirose,fortheircontinuousstrongsupport.WethankMOMODaFoundation,especiallyMdEnamulHaqueandH.M.MasudurRahmanfortheirfielddatacollection.WeappreciateexceptionalresearchassistancefromSandyNoboaLindaoandMdRezwanulHoque.WearegratefulforcommentsfromTakashiYamano,PaulVandenberg,andseminarparticipantsattheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).SpecialthankstoMdSaidurRahmanandAkihiroShojifortheirsupportinthefield.ThisstudyissupportedbyADBTA9402(DevelopingImpactEvaluationMethodologies,Approaches,andCapacitiesinSelectedDevelopingMemberCountries[Subproject3]).ThisstudywasapprovedbytheSocialandBehavioralInstitutionalReviewBoardofFloridaInternationalUniversity(IRB-21-0353).ThestudyispreregisteredattheAEAregistry(AEARCTR-0009002).TheviewsoftheauthorsdonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofADB.Allerrorsareourown.

ABSTRACT

Onlinejobfairsareanewlabormarketintervention.ThispaperprovidesthefirstexperimentalevidenceontheirimpactbyevaluatinganonlinefairforinformationandcommunicationtechnologyjobsinBangladesh.Thefairgeneratedanon-negligiblenumberofjoboffers;however,over90%ofthemwererejected,sonoeffectonemploymentprobabilityortypewasfound.Interestingly,jobseekersloweredtheirreservationwages,kepttheirjobslonger,andendedupinworseskill-matchedjobs.Thereasonisthatjobseekersinitiallyhadoveroptimisticexpectations,butlearnedaboutmarketconditionsatthefair,loweredtheirexpectations,andbecamediscouragedfromjobsearch.Asaresult,thosewhohadalreadybeenemployedkepttheirjobslonger,evenifthejobsdidnotmatchtheirskills,andthosewhohadinitiallybeenunemployedendedupwithloweremploymentprobabilitiesandlowerskill-matchquality.

Keywords:jobfair,jobmatching,onlinesearch,youthemployment,Bangladesh

JELcodes:O12,O15,J24,J64

ADB

AEA

ATE

COVID-19

ICT

ITT

ABBREVIATIONS

AsianDevelopmentBank

AmericanEconomicAssociation

averagetreatmenteffectonthetreated

coronavirusdisease

informationandcommunicationtechnology

intention-to-treat

1.INTRODUCTION

Searchfrictionsinlabormarketspreventjobseekersfromlearningaboutjobsandmeetingwithemployers.Toovercomethesearchfrictions,varioustypesofinterventionsexistsuchasinformationprovision(Altmannetal.2018;Belot,Kircher,andMuller2019;Dammert,Galdo,andGaldo2015);searchsubsidies(BanerjeeandSequeira2022;Bryan,Chowdhury,andMobarak2014;Franklin2018);recruitmentservices(Jensen2012);andin-personjobfairs(Abebeetal.2022;Beam2016).1Onlinejobfairsareanewadditiontothissetoflabormarketinterventions.Theyhavebecomemorecommonaftertheoutbreakofthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)andareexpectedtogrowandbecomeastandardjobmatchingprogram,accordingtodatafromtheUnitedStates(HandshakeNetworkTrends2021).2Althoughonlinejobfairshaveobviousadvantagessuchasaffordability,accessibility,flexibility,andscalability,theireffectivenessisstillunknown.Forexample,theeffectivenessmaybeweakerduetothelackofface-to-faceinteraction(Atkin,Chen,andPopov2022;Startz2021).

Thispaperprovidesthefirstexperimentalevidenceontheeffectsofonlinejobfairattendanceonlabormarketoutcomes.WepartnerwiththelargestonlinejobportalinBangladesh,B,toconductanonlinejobfairforinformationandcommunicationtechnology(ICT)jobs.Thecountryisagoodfitforourstudybecauseofhighsearchfrictionsandspatialmismatches(Bryan,Chowdhury,andMobarak2014;MatsudaandNomura2022);thenationaldevelopmentfocusondigitizingtheeconomy(GeneralEconomicsDivision2020);andtherapidexpansionofinternetusers.3Thetimingofthefairalsofitswellbecauseitwaswhenjobsrecoveredtothepre-pandemiclevel(Hayashi,Matsuda,andRahman2022),whilethefearofcontractingCOVID-19remained,preventingpeoplefromextensivejobsearches.4

Thefairconsistedofthreecomponents:jobpostingsonthefairwebsite;livesessionswhereemployersmadepresentationsandengagedintwo-waycommunicationwithjobseekers;andjobapplication.Thefairlasted3daysonweekdays,9–11November2021.Whilethesecomponentsareessentiallythesameasin-personfairsoffer,theonlinefairhasseveraluniqueadvantages.First,becauseitisonlineandremote,thereisnoneedfortravelortransportation.Thisfeaturemaybeparticularlybeneficialforjobseekerswithliquidityconstraints(Abebe,Caria,andOrtiz-Ospina2021;Baird,McKenzie,andÖzler2018);spatialconstraints(BanerjeeandSequeira2022;Franklin2018);andmobilityconstraints(Borker2021;FieldandVyborny2022;MuralidharanandPrakash2017).Second,itallowsflexibleparticipation.Thatis,jobseekersdonothavetospendentiredaysbutcanbrowsejobadsattheirconvenienceandselectivelyattendlivesessions.5Theflexibility,alongwiththeremoteness,maybeespeciallyimportantfortime-constrainedjobseekers(He,Neumark,andWeng2021),includingwomenwhoaredisproportionatelyburdenedwithhouseholdwork(DelecourtandFitzpatrick2021;Dinkelman2011;Tasetal.2022).

1Forreviewsofactivelabormarketpolicies,seeforexample,Card,Kluve,andWeber(2018)andMcKenzie(2017).

2Although,toourknowledge,dataononlinejobfairsindevelopingcountriesdonotyetexist,weconjecturethatonlinejobfairswillexpandindevelopingcountriestoo,becausebroadbandnetworksareexpanding(InternationalTelecommunicationUnion2022)andthereisaneedforlow-costmeansofmatching.

3Theproportionofpeopleusingtheinternetalmosttripledbetween2015and2021(WorldBankOpenData).

4Whenjobseekerswereaskedabouttheirlabormarketchallengesinourbaselinesurvey,51%ofthemagreedthattheyworriedaboutCOVID-19infection(FigureA1).

5Thesessionprogramwaspublishedinadvanceonthefairwebsite.

TheImpactofanOnlineJobFair3

Thispaperalsoaddstothegrowingbodyofstudiesthatdemonstratejobseekers’overoptimism.Theiroveroptimismisfoundinbothdevelopingcountries(Abebeetal.2022;Alfonsi,Namubiru,andSpaziani2022;Bandieraetal.2022;BanerjeeandSequeira2022;JonesandSantos2022)anddevelopedcountries(KruegerandMueller2016;Mueller,Spinnewin,andTopa2021;VanderKlaauwandZiegler2022).Abebeetal.(2022);(Alfonsi,Namubiru,andSpaziani2022);BanerjeeandSequeira(2022),andVanderKlaauwandZiegler(2022)findthatmoderatingoveroptimismencouragesjobsearchandofferacceptance;ontheotherhand,Bandieraetal.(2022)findthatmoderatingoveroptimismdiscouragesjobsearchandleadstoworseemploymentoutcomesinthelongrun.Ourpaperaddstothelatter,sincewefindthatmoderatingitdiscouragesjobsearchandresultsinlowerskill-matchquality.Theuniquenessofourstudyisthattheoveroptimismisfoundevenwhenjobsaretightlymatchedtojobseekers’preferredsector(i.e.,ICTjobs)andlevels(entry/junior-leveljobsforcollege-educatedworkers),whereastheexistingstudiesfindtheoveroptimismwhenbroadertypesandlevelsofjobsandjobseekersarematchedtoeachother.

Finally,thepaperrelatestoanascentliteratureononlinejobportals.Theportalsaregrowingacrosstheworldwithgreatpotential(Afridietal.2022;Hensel,Tekleselassie,andWitte2021;JonesandSen2022;Fernando,Singh,andTourek2022).Theycannotonlyfacilitatejobpostingsandapplication,butalsoprovideadditionalfeaturessuchasskillassessment(Yamauchietal.2018)andworkplaceinformationdisclosure(LeibbrandtandList2018;Matsudaetal.2022;Ward2022).Bycollaboratingwithanonlinejobportal,ourstudydemonstratesthatanonlinefaircanbeanotheradd-ontoportals.

2.RESEARCHDESIGN

StudyContext:LaborMarketsinBangladeshBangladeshachievedannualeconomicgrowthof7.9%infiscalyear2019,thehighestinAsiaandthePacific.However,thisrecentgrowthwaslargelyledbytheready-madegarmentindustry(ADB2019b).Thecountryneedsnewenginesforeconomicgrowth,sotheGovernmentofBangladeshhasstartedtoinvestintheICTindustry(GeneralEconomicsDivision2020)andimplementedprogramsthatfosterICTfirmsandtrainICTskills.TheICTsectorisalsoimportantforyouthemployment.Everyyear2.2millionyoungpeopleentertheworkforcebutfacechallengingtransitionfromschooltowork.Accordingtoarecentstudy(ADB2019a),only42%ofcollegegraduateswithICT-relateddegreesfindajobwithinayearofgraduation,andtherearesignificantgeographicdifferencesinjobplacementrates.Thereisaneedtostrengthenjobplacementservices.

Intervention:OnlineJobFairTheonlinejobfairwasimplementedbyB,thecountry’slargestonlinejobportalwithabout1millionactivejobseekersand10,000firms.InpartnershipwiththeAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)andtheresearchteam,Bdevelopedanonlinejobfairprogramandconductedtwosmall-scalepilotspriortothefairevaluatedinthisstudy.

4ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesNo.689

Thefairhadthreecomponents:jobpostings,livesessions,andapplication.Onthefairwebsiteemployerspostedjobads,andjobseekersbrowsedthem.Boththewebsiteandjobadsbecameavailableabout10daysbeforethefairdays,sojobseekershadenoughtimetoreviewthejobadsinadvance.Onthefairdays,employersheldliveonlinesessionsinwhichtheyexplainedtheirbusinesses,jobpositions,careerpaths,etc.,andtookandansweredquestionsfromjobseekers.Recordedvideosofthesessionsweremadeavailableonthefairwebsite.Jobseekerswereabletosubmitapplicationsthroughthewebsitebefore,during,andonthedayafterthefair.FigureA2presentsscreenshotsofthefair.6Thefairwasheldon3weekdays.Itwasfreeforbothjobseekersandemployers.7

ThefairfocusedentirelyonICTjobs(i.e.,jobsrequiringICTskills)atentrytojuniorlevels(requiringzeroto6yearsofworkexperience)forworkerswithtertiaryeducation.Accordingly,theparticipatingjobseekershadstronginterestinICTjobsandICTskills,aspresentedinthenextsection.

RecruitmentandRandomization

Brecruited110employersbyreachingouttothosethatwereusingitsportalandtotheBangladeshAssociationofSoftwareandInformationServices.SummarystatisticsofemployersandjobsarepresentedinAppendixTableA2.Ninety-fourpercentofthem(or103employers)werelocatedinDhakacity.Intermsoffirmsize,54%weresmall(10–49full-timeemployees);22%micro(1–9employees);10%medium(50–99employees);10%large(100–999employees);4%mega(1,000ormoreemployees).AlthoughallemployersadvertisedICTjobs,86%(or95employers)operatedintheICTsector;theremaining14%(15employers)wereinnon-ICTsectorssuchasprofessionalservices,manufacturing,andtrade.

Eachemployerpostedexactlyonejobad,sotherewereatotalof110jobads.8Duetologisticalandschedulingconstraints,41employersheldlivesessions.Themeannumberofvacanciesperjobwas3.2,andthetotalnumberofvacancieswas350(AppendixTableA2).Themeanminimumyearsofexperiencerequiredwas0.8years,andthemeanmaximumyearsofexperiencewas2.5years.Mostofthejobs(85%)requiredacollegedegreeorhigher.

Torecruitjobseekers,Badvertisedthefaironitsportalwebsite.Theyalsosentemailstotheiruserswith0–6yearsofexperienceandstudentsinICT-relateduniversitiesandvocationaltrainingprograms.Theemailsincludedalinkthroughwhichinterestedjobseekerscouldsubmitanapplicationformforthefair.Basedontheinformationprovidedintheform,weidentifiedeligiblejobseekersforthestudy.Theeligibilitycriteriawerethatajobseekerhadcompletedorwascurrentlyenrolledintertiaryeducation,hadaccesstoadigitaldevice(e.g.,computer,tablet,andsmartphone)andtheinternettoattendthefair,andhadafreeaccountonB.9Thenumberofeligiblejobseekerswas2,556.

Ofthe2,556eligiblejobseekers,1,280wererandomlyselectedastreatmentjobseekerswhowereinvitedtothefair.Theremaining1,276werecontroljobseekerswhodidnotreceiveanyintervention.Therandomizationwasatthejobseekerlevelandstratifiedbygeographicdivisions.Aftertherandomization,Binformedtreatmentjobseekers,viaemail,phone,andpushnotifications,thattheywereselectedforthefairandinstructedthemtoregisteronlineforthefair.Weexaminethebalanceofbaselinecharacteristicsbetweentreatmentandcontroljobseekersandfindnostatisticallysignificantdifferencebetweenthem(AppendixTableB1).

6Atthefair,weintroducedajobpreferencesignalingmechanism.ItwasessentiallyidenticaltothesignalingmechanismintheeconomistjobmarketbytheAmericanEconomicAssociation(Colesetal.2010).Weappliedarandomizationmethodtotestthemechanismasapilotstudy.Itwasseparatelyregistered(AEARCTR-0009003).

7Althoughourfairwasfreeforemployers,in-personjobfairsorganizedbyBusuallychargefeesforemployers,whiletheyarealwaysfreeforjobseekers.

8AppendixTableA1presentswhattheirjobtitleswerelike.

9Ifajobseekerdidnothaveanaccountwhenfillingouttheapplicationform,heorshewasredirectedtotheBaccountsign-uppageaftersubmittingtheform.

TheImpactofanOnlineJobFair5

Data

Wecollectedbaselinedataonjobseekersthroughthefair’sapplicationform.Itaskedaboutdemographics,employment,andjobsearch.Employerbaselinedatawascollectedthroughanonlinesurveyform,whichwascompletedby104ofthe110participatingemployers.

Atendline,weconductedinterviewsurveysofalljobseekersoverthephonetwice,approximately2and11monthsafterthefair.Theresponseratewas94%inthefirstendlinesurveyand81%inthesecondone.Theresponserateswerenotstatisticallysignificantlydifferentbetweentreatmentandcontroljobseekersbutwerenearlyequal(AppendixTableB2).Foremployers,weconductedanin-personsurveyabout2monthsafterthefair.Theresponseratewas81%.

Additionally,weusetheadministrativedataofBandthefair.Theformerincludesbasicinformationaboutjobseekersandemployers.Thelatterincludesinformationonfairregistrationandjobapplications.

Timeline

ThetimelineofthestudyisillustratedinAppendixFigureA3.Thefairwasheldon9–11November2021.TherecruitmentofjobseekersandemployersstartedinlateSeptember.On30October,Bpublishedthefairwebsite,includingjobads,andbegancommunicatingwithtreatmentjobseekers.From30Octoberto12November(i.e.,onedayafterthefair)registeredjobseekerscouldsubmitjobapplications,whichemployerscouldreviewatanytime,evenafter12November.

3.DESCRIPTIVESTATISTICS

Jobseekers

SummarystatisticsofjobseekersarepresentedinTable1.Eighty-eightpercentofthemweremale,andthemeanagewas25years,and21%weremarried.Theywerehighlyeducated:94%hadacollegediplomaorhigherdegree.10Seventy-sevenpercenthadpreviouslytakenICT-relatedtrainingcourses.Whenaskedtorank14industriesbasedontheirpreference,95%rankedICTfirstand3%rankedsecond.SotheywereveryinterestedinICTjobs.While62%ofjobseekerswereemployed,themeanyearsofexperiencewas