中国经济数据点评

投资Investment6月固定资产投资增长明显加快1-63.8%，增速比0.5个百分点。6月固定资产投资的同比增速、两年平均增速、四年平均增3.2%、4.5%、5.2%51.3、1.3、1.2个百分点。JuneChinafixedassetinvestmentgrewfaster.FromJanuarytoJune,accumulatedinvestmentinfixedassetsgrewby+3.8%0.5%higherthantheexpectedvalue.InJune,thetwo-yearaverage,andfour-yearaveragegrowthratesofinvestmentinfixedassetswere+3.2%,+4.5%,and+5.2%,respectively,whichwere1.3%,1.3%,and1.2%higherthanthatinMay.图表1：固定资产投资当月同比(,21年为两年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表2：固定资产投资当月同比(21与23年为两年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)固定资产投资 房地产 基建 制造业 固定资产投资 房地产 基建 制造业FixedAssetInvestment RealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing2520151050-5-10-15-20

FixedAsset2520151050-5-10-15-20

RealEstateInfrastructure

ManufacturingDec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23

Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF66月房地产、基建、制造业投资分别同比增长-10.2%、12.3%、6.0%5月0.01.50.9-9.8%12.2%7.9%5月变化-0.8、2.8、1.9个百分点；分别四年平均增长-1.6%、8.0%、7.0%，增速较5月变化-Intermsofmajorcategories,Junerealestateinvestmentgrewslower,whileinfrastructureinvestmentandmanufacturinginvestmentincreasedfaster.Specifically,thegrowthratesofinvestmentinrealestate,infrastructure,andmanufacturingwere-10.2%,+12.3%,and+6.0%inJune;whichchangedby0.0%,+1.5%,and+0.9%comparedwithrespectively.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofinvestmentinrealestate,infrastructure,andmanufacturingwere-9.8%,+12.2%,and+7.9%,respectively,whichchangedby-0.8%,+2.9%,and+1.9%fromMay.Thefour-yearaveragegrowthratesofinvestmentinrealestate,infrastructure,andmanufacturingwere-1.6%,+8.0%,and+7.0%respectively,whichchangedby-1.2%,+1.7%,and+2.1%fromMay.房地产投资Realestateinvestment6月房地产相关指标多数有所走弱。6月商品房销售面积、房屋新开工面积、房地产投资分别较019年同期下降0%9.%.4%1.6、4.7670月（上涨0%。-6月房屋施工面积同比下降6.6%，降幅扩大4个百分点；19.0%0.6个百分点，但竣工表现仍相对较好。InJune,mostrealestate-relatedindicatorsweakened.ComparedwithJune2019,thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssold,ofthefloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedandoftheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentwere-26.0%,-59.9%and-6.4%inJune,respectively,whichwere6.1%,0.6%and4.7%lowerthanTheSalesPriceIndicesofNewlyConstructedCommercialResidentialBuildingsin70LargeandMedium-SizedCitiesdecreasedby0.1%MoMinJune,weakerthanMay(increasedby0.1%MoM).FromJanuarytoJune,thegrowthrateoffloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionwas-6.6%,0.4%lowerthanJanuarytoThefloorspaceofbuildingscompletedincreasedby+19.0%0.6%lowerthanthepreviousmonth,butitsperformancewasstillrelativelygood.图表3(,2021monthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表4：房地产相关指标当月值相对于2019年同期的增()ChangeratesofRealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthcomparedtothesameperiodin2019,FloorspaceofbuildingssoldYoYFloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoYInvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY

Growthrateoffloorspacesold(comparedto2019)Growthrateoffloorspacenewlystarted(comparedto2019)Growthrateofrealestateinvestment(comparedto2019)20100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23

3020100-10-20-30-40-50-60-70Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF图表5(，剔除基数效应)CurrentyearcumulativefloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionandcompletedYoY(excludingbase

图表6：70个大中城市新建住宅价格比()70MajorCitiesNewHousingPricesMoM20151050-5-10-15-20-25

FloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionFloorspaceofbuildingscompletedYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

1.00.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8

70城 一线 二线 三线70Cities Tier1 Tier2 Tier3Feb-18Dec-18Oct-19Aug-20Jun-21Apr-22Feb-23 Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Jan-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF730大中城市商品房年下半年以来房地产回212019年同期的增速也大体呈现筑底特征。因此，房地产进一步下行空间不大。Therealestateindustrystillfacessomepressure,butfurtherdownwardspaceislimited.Sincethefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcitieshasfurtherdeclined,andtherealestateindustrystillfacesdownwardpressure.Since2021H2,therealestateindustryhasexperiencedatwo-yearpullback.Thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandnewlystartedhasgenerallyshownabottomingoutfeatureinthepastoneyear,comparedwiththesameperiod2019.Therefore,thereisnotmuchroomforfurtherdeclineinrealestateindustry.预计未来几个月房地产投资增速可能小幅回落710714央行货币政策司司长表示“过去在市场长期过热阶段陆续出台的政策存在边际优化Thegrowthrateofrealestateinvestmentmaymoderatelydeclineinthecomingmonths.OnJuly10th,ThePeople'sBankofChinaandtheStateAdministrationofFinancialRegulationnotifiedtheextensionofthepolicyperiodrelatedtofinancialsupportforthestableandhealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry.OnJuly14th,thedirectoroftheMonetaryPolicyDepartmentofthePBOCstatedthat"thereismarginaloptimizationspaceforrealestatepoliciesintroducedinthepastduringtheperiodoflong-termmarketoverheating",whichmeansthatrealestatepoliciesmightbefurthereased.Withpolicysupport,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldisexpectedtobottomoutin2023H2.However,consideringthelaggingeffectofasharpdecreaseinthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingsnewlystartedInthepastfewmonths,thegrowthrateoftheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentmaystillslightlydeclinein2023H2.1.2基建投资Infrastructureinvestment6月基建投资增长明显快1-6月建资比长10.7增提高0.7个百点其，6月建投同长12.3增速高1.5百点。JuneInfrastructureinvestmentgrewatafasterpace.FromJanuarytoJune,accumulatedinfrastructureinvestmentincreasedby10.7%0.7%higherthanthatinJanuary-May.InJune,infrastructureinvestmentincreasedby12.3%whichwas1.5%higherthanthatin利境公设管理的定产资两年均增速为20.9、7.86.8，速高1.6、0.9、0.5百点。Intermsofindustries,fromJanuarytoJune,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofaccumulatedinvestmentintheProductionandSupplyofElectricity,GasandWater,intheTransportation,StorageandPost,andintheManagementofWaterConservancy,EnvironmentandPublicFacilitieswere20.9%,7.8%and6.8%,whichchangedby+1.6%,+0.9%,and+0.5%comparedwithJanuary-May.预计下半年基建投资保持较快增长。二季度国内经济表现低于预期，预计Infrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2.Chinaeconomyfellbehindexpectationsin2023Q2,andmoreeconomicstabilizingpoliciesareexpected.Investmentininfrastructurewouldstillbeacrucialtooltostabilizetheeconomyandisexpectedtospeedup.图表7(，2021InfrastructureInvestmentYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表8(,2021yearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYbycategory(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)CurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYInfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoY20151050-5

ProductionandSupplyofElectricity,GasandWaterTransport,StorageandPost30 ManagementofWaterConservancy,EnvironmentandPublicFacilities20100-10-15-20-25-30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

-10-20-30Feb-19Aug-19Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF1.3制造业投资Manufacturinginvestment6月制造业投资增速有所提高，预计下半年制造业投资增长小幅加快。1-6月6.0%1-5月制造业投资同比增6.0%50.9个百分点。InvestmentinmanufacturingindustrygrewfasterinJune,andthegrowthmayslightlyacceleratein2023H2.FromJanuarytoJune,accumulatedinvestmentinmanufacturingindustryincreasedby6.0%whichwasthesameasthatinJanuary-May.InJune,theinvestmentinmanufacturingindustrywas+6.0%YoY,0.9%higherthanMay.今年-5月份制造业利润总额同比下降2.%40.3%有利于制造业投资增长。预计下半年制造业投资增长小幅加快。FromJanuarytoMay2023,thetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrygrewby-23.7%whichisnotconducivetothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.However,policiesstronglysupportthedevelopmentofthemanufacturingindustry.BytheendofJune,thegrowthrateofmid&long-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas+40.3%,whichisfavorabletothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.Itisexpectedthatthegrowthofmanufacturinginvestmentwillmoderatelyquickenin2023H2.图表9(，21InvestmentinmanufacturingindustryYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

图表10：制造业中长期贷款与利润增速（）Outstandingmid&long-termloansandtotalprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY3020100-10-20-30-40

CurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoY Outstandingmid&long-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoYManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoY CurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY50403020100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22

Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF下半年固定资产投资增长有望小幅加快。Tosummarize,althoughthereisstillsomedownwardpressureonrealestateindustry,thegrowthofinvestmentininfrastructureandmanufacturingmayaccelerate.Thegrowthoffixedassetsinvestmentisexpectedtomoderatelyimprovedin2023H2.消费Consumption剔除基数效应，6月消费增长有所加快。6月社会消费品零售总额当月同比增3.1%0.43.1%、4.0%50.6、0.5个百分点。Juneconsumptiongrewatafasterpace,excludingthebaseeffect.Thetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodsincreasedby+3.1%0.4%lowerthanexpected.Excludingthebaseeffect,thetwo-yearandfour-yearaveragegrowthratesofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswere+3.1%and4.0%inJunerespectively,0.6%and0.5%higherthanMay.分大类来看1.7%16.1%；分别两年2.8%、5.6%0.3、2.34.1%、0.41.06月餐饮收入增速的提高相对于商品零售更为显著，这可能意味着疫情对服务消费的抑制明显减弱。不过，餐饮收入的四年平均增速仍明显低于商品零售，反映服务消费的恢复仍未完成。Bycategories,Juneretailsalesofcommoditiesandincomeofcateringindustryroseby1.7%and16.1%respectively;thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateswere2.8%and5.6%respectively,whichwere0.3%and2.3%higherthanMay;thefour-yearaveragegrowthrateswere4.1%and3.2%respectively,whichwere0.4%and1.0%higherthanMay.TheincreaseinthegrowthrateofincomeofcateringindustryinJunewasmorethanthatofretailsalesofcommodities,whichmayindicatethatthesuppressionofserviceconsumptionbytheepidemicsignificantlyweakened.However,thefour-yearaveragegrowthrateofincomeofcateringindustryisstillsignificantlylowerthanthatofretailsalesofcommodities,reflectingthattherecoveryofserviceconsumptionhasnotyetbeencompleted.图表11：社会消费品零售总额的增速（，剔除基数效应TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoY(excludingbaseeffect)

图表12：商品零售与餐饮收入当月同比（，剔除基数效应）CommodityRetailandIncomeofCateringIndustryYoY(excludingbaseeffect)20.015.010.05.00.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0

RetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthrateinand2023)RetailSalesYoY(two-year,four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)

CommodityRetailYoY IncomeofCateringIndustryYoY(twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)151050-5-10-15-20-25-30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF从限额以上企业零售数据来看6月多数类别商品零售额增速明显回升3.8%、6.1%9.2、4.0个百分点。耐用品消费明显改善。Bycategories,thegrowthrateoftheretailsalesformostcategoriesofgoodsinJunehassignificantlyrebounded.Basedonthedatafromenterprisesabovethedesignatedsize,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesoftheretailsalesofhouseholdappliancesandmotorvehicleswere3.8%and6.1%respectively,whichwere9.2%and4.0%higherthanMay.Theconsumptionofdurablegoodsimprovedsignificantly.图表13：限额以上企业消费品零售总额当月值的两年平均增速及其相对于上月的变化（）Two-yearaveragegrowthrateofConsumerGoodRetailSalesofenterprisesabovethedesignatedsize,bycategory()Two-yearaveragegrowthrateofRetailSalesofConsumerGoods Changeofgrowthratecomparedwiththelastmonth8.0 -6.0-4.08.0 -6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.05.25.08.0 10.0-0.9-2.8-5.9TotalCommodityIncomeofCateringIndustrySportsandamusementsMedicinesGold,silverandTobaccoandliquorFoodTelecommunicationequipmentMotorvehiclesPetroleumproductsClothes,shoes,hatsandtextilesHouseholdappliancesBeverageDailynecessitiesCulturalandofficeappliancesFurnitureBuildinganddecorationmaterials资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF二季度居民收入增长有所加快。上半年全国居民人均可支配收入累计同比增长6.5%1.40.30.9个百分点。Thegrowthofresidents'incomeacceleratedinthesecondquarter.In2023H1,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsincreasedby6.5%1.4%higherthanthatin2023Q1,partlyduetothelowbaseeffect.In2023Q2,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsgrewbyanaverageof6.7%overthepastfouryears,0.3%higherthanthefirstquarterand0.9%higherthanthethree-yearaveragegrowthratein2022Q4.图表14：居民收入与消费增速（，剔除基数效应）ThegrowthratesofResidentsIncomeandConsumption

图表15：居民收入增速与城镇调查失业率（）UnemploymentRateandthegrowthratesofIncomeCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoY QuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoY (two-year,three-year,12840-4-12-16-20

CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and

four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021,2022andQuarterlyUnemploymentRate(rightaxis)1086420

6.05.25.04.24.0Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23 Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF预计下半年消费温和回升。居民收入主要取决于就业。65.2%5.2%0.3个百分点，比去0.4趋于降低，而居民收入增长趋于加快。下半年国内服务消费继续温和修复，服务业就业将进一步增加，失业率可能小幅回落，居民收入增长或将小幅加快。服务消费的修复与居民收入的加快增长将推动下半年消费温和回升。Itisexpectedthattheconsumptionwillmoderatelyrecoverin2023H2.Residents'incomemainlydependsonemployment.TheurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinJunewas5.2%,unchangedfromthepreviousmonth;Theaverageunemploymentrateinthesecondquarterwas5.2%,0.3%lowerthanthefirstquarterand0.4%lowerthan2022Q4.Overall,aftertheoptimizationofdomesticepidemicpreventionpolicies,theunemploymentratetendstodecrease,whilethegrowthofresidents'incometendstoaccelerate.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,domesticserviceconsumptionwillcontinuetorecovermoderately,employmentintheserviceindustrywillfurtherincrease,unemploymentratemayslightlydecline,andresidentincomegrowthmayslightlyaccelerate.Therecoveryofserviceconsumptionandtheacceleratinggrowthofresidents'incomewilldriveamildreboundinconsumptionin2023H2.IndustrialProduction需求回升与库存回补推动6月工业生产显著加快。6月工业增加值同比增长4.4%1.950.9个百分点。剔除基数效应，6月工业增加值两年平均增长1%5月提高2.0Improvedaggregatedemandandinventoryreplenishmentresultedinafastergrowthofvalue-addedofindustriesinJune.Thegrowthrateofvalue-addedofindustrieswas+4.4%inJune,1.9%higherthanexpectedand0.9%higherthanMay.Excludingthebaseeffect,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofvalue-addedofindustrieswas+4.1%,2.0%higherthanMay.6月投资与消费的增长有所加快，但出口降幅有所扩大，需求的恢复幅度小于工业生产的增长幅度。因此，需求的企稳回升只是工业生产显著加快的原因之一，另一个原因可能是企业回补库存。可以印证的是，6月工业企业产销率为95.7%，明显低于5月96.6%的水平。TheinvestmentandconsumptiongrewfasterinJune,buttheexportsweakened.Theimprovedaggregatedemandwasonereasonforacceleratedgrowthofvalue-addedofindustries,whiletheotherreasonmayberestocking,whichcanbepartlyconfirmedbythattheproductionandsalesrateofindustrialenterprisesdropped0.9%to95.7%inJune.从主要产品产量来看，6月钢材、水泥、平板玻璃、汽车、十种有色金属产量5.4%、-1.5%、-7.6%、0.8%、6.1%、10.2%，分别1.5%-7.4%-3.9%13.1%4.6%-0.2%5月3.3、1.7、1.0、7.4、0.4、-1.6个百分点。Fromtheperspectiveofmajorproductsoutput,thegrowthratesoftheoutputofsteel,cement,flatglass,automobiles,tenkindsofnon-ferrousmetals,andcrudeoilprocessedinJunewere5.4%,-1.5%,-7.6%,+0.8%,+6.1%,and+10.2%,respectively,andthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateswere1.5%,-7.4%,-3.9%,13.1%,4.6%and-0.2%,respectively,whichchangedby+3.3%,+1.7%,+1.0%,+7.4%,+0.4%,and-1.6%fromMay.4%左右的水平。Thedomesticeconomicrecoveryisrelativelymild,indicatingthatthereplenishmentofinventorywillnotsustainforalongtime.However,domesticinvestmentandconsumptiondemandareexpectedtoimprovemoderatelyin2023H2.Itisexpectedthatthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofvalue-addedofindustrieswillmaintainaround4%in2023H2.图表16：工业增加值当月同比增速（）Value-addedofIndustriesAboveDesignatedSizeYoY

图表17：工业品产量当月同比（,21与23为两年平均增速）OutputofMajorProductsYoY(excludingbaseeffect)Value-addedofIndustriesAboveDesignatedSizeYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)

钢材 水泥 汽车 有色金属 原油加工量Steel Cement AutomobileNon-ferrous CrudeOil151050-5-10-15

50403020100-10-20-30-40-50-60

(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and

ProcessedFeb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 May-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF服务业ServiceIndustry6月服务业生产有所加快，下半年将进一步温和修复。6月服务业生产指数同1.1ServiceindustryproductionacceleratedinJuneandmayrecoverfurtherin2023H2.JuneIndexofServiceProduction(ISP)increasedby+6.8%andthetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewas+4.0%,1.1%higherthanThereisstillroomforrecoveryintheserviceindustry.AstheCOVIDsubsides,theproductionoftheserviceindustrywillfurtherrecoverinthesecondhalfoftheyear.图表18：服务业生产指数当月同比增速（）IndexofServicesProductionYoY(excludebaseeffect)

图表19：服务业商务活动指数（）BusinessActivityIndexofServiceIndustryIndexofServicesProductionYoY(two-yeargrowthratein2021and2023)IndexofServicesProductionYoY(two-yeargrowthratein2021and2023)6010555 50

BusinessActivityIndexofServiceIndustry0 45-5 40-10 35-15Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSF 资料来源：万得中信期货研究所Sources:,CITICSFGDP二季度GDP明显低于预期GDP同比增长6.3%%；3.3%4.6%的增速。分大类看，第二、三产业当季GDP5.2%、7.4%3.0%、3.4%，增速较一季度1.5、1.3个百分点。ChinaGDPin2023Q2waslowerthanexpected.ThegrowthrateofGDPin2023Q2was6.3%,0.5%lowerthanexpected;thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewas3.3%,1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.Byindustry,thegrowthratesofthevalueaddedoftheprimaryindustryandtertiaryindustrywere5.2%and7.4%respectively,andthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateswere3.0%and3.4%respectively,1.5%and1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.图表20：GDP当季同比（）QuarterlyGDPYoY

图表21GDP，2123GDPYoY,byindustry(excludingbase20.016.012.08.04.00.0-4.0-8.0

GDP:当季同比QuarterlyGDPYoY

10.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0

GDP 第二产业 第三产业SecondaryIndustry TertiaryIndustry(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and202