IEA-清洁能源转型中关键矿物的角色（英文）-2021.5-287正式版

TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsWorldEnergyOutlookSpecialReportINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits30membercountries,8associationcountriesandbeyond.Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineat/t&c/Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Source:IEA.Allrightsreserved.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAmembercountries:SpainAustraliaSwedenAustriaSwitzerlandBelgiumTurkeyCanadaUnitedKingdomCzechRepublicUnitedStatesDenmarkIEAassociationcountries:EstoniaFinlandBrazilFranceChinaGermanyIndiaGreeceIndonesiaHungaryMoroccoIrelandSingaporeItalySouthAfricaJapanThailandKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicTheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsForewordEversincetheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)wasfoundedin1974inthewakeofseveredisruptionstoglobaloilmarketsthatshooktheworldeconomy,itscoremissionhasbeentofostersecureandaffordableenergysupplies.Today,theglobalenergysystemisinthemidstofamajortransitiontocleanenergy.Theeffortsofanever-expandingnumberofcountriesandcompaniestoreducetheirgreenhousegasemissionstonetzerocallforthemassivedeploymentofawiderangeofcleanenergytechnologies,manyofwhichinturnrelyoncriticalmineralssuchascopper,lithium,nickel,cobaltandrareearthelements.Anevolvingenergysystemcallsforanevolvingapproachtoenergysecurity.Ascleanenergytransitionsaccelerategloballyandsolarpanels,windturbinesandelectriccarsaredeployedonagrowingscale,theserapidlygrowingmarketsforkeymineralscouldbesubjecttopricevolatility,geopoliticalinfluenceandevendisruptionstosupply.ThisWorldEnergyOutlookspecialreportonTheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsidentifiesriskstokeymineralsandmetalsthat–leftunaddressed–couldmakeglobalprogresstowardsacleanenergyfutureslowerormorecostly,andthereforehamperinternationaleffortstotackleclimatechange.TheIEAisdeterminedtoplayaleadingroleinenablinggovernmentsaroundthe

Forewordworldtoanticipateandnavigatepossibledisruptionsandavoiddamagingoutcomesforoureconomiesandourplanet.Thisspecialreportisthemostcomprehensiveglobalstudyofthissubjecttodate,underscoringtheIEA’scommitmenttoensuringenergysystemsremainasresilient,secureandsustainableaspossible.BuildingontheIEA’sdetailed,technology-richenergymodellingtools,wehaveestablishedauniqueandextensivedatabasethatunderpinsourprojectionsoftheworld’sfuturemineralrequirementsunderdifferentclimateandtechnologyscenarios.Thisiswhatenergysecuritylookslikeinthe21stcentury.Wemustpaycloseattentiontoallpotentialvulnerabilities,astheIEAdidinourrecentseriesonelectricitysecurityforpowersystems,whichcoveredchallengessuchasgrowingsharesofvariablerenewables,climateresilienceandcybersecurity.Today’ssupplyandinvestmentplansformanycriticalmineralsfallwellshortofwhatisneededtosupportanaccelerateddeploymentofsolarpanels,windturbinesandelectricvehicles.Manymineralscomefromasmallnumberofproducers.Forexample,inthecasesoflithium,cobaltandrareearthelements,theworld’stopthreeproducerscontrolwelloverthree-quartersofglobaloutput.Thishighgeographicalconcentration,thelongleadtimestobringnewmineralproductiononstream,thedecliningresourcequalityinsomeareas,PAGE|1TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsForewordandvariousenvironmentalandsocialimpactsallraiseconcernsaroundreliableandsustainablesuppliesofmineralstosupporttheenergytransition.Thesehazardsarereal,buttheyaresurmountable.Theresponsefrompolicymakersandcompanieswilldeterminewhethercriticalmineralsremainavitalenablerforcleanenergytransitionsorbecomeabottleneckintheprocess.Basedonthisspecialreport,weidentifytheIEA’ssixkeyrecommendationstoensuremineralsecurity.Anessentialstepisforpolicymakerstoprovideclearsignalsabouttheirclimateambitionsandhowtheirtargetswillbeturnedintoaction.Long-termvisibilityisessentialtoprovidetheconfidenceinvestorsneedtocommittonewprojects.Effortstoscaleupinvestmentshouldgohand-in-handwithabroadstrategythatencompassestechnologyinnovation,recycling,supplychainresilienceandsustainabilitystandards.

Thereisnoshortageofresourcesworldwide,andtherearesizeableopportunitiesforthosewhocanproducemineralsinasustainableandresponsiblemanner.Becausenosinglecountrywillbeabletosolvetheseissuesalone,strengthenedinternationalcooperationisessential.LeveragingtheIEA’slong-standingleadershipinsafeguardingenergysecurity,weremaincommittedtohelpinggovernments,producersandconsumerstacklethesecriticalchallenges.Finally,Iwouldliketothanktheexcellentteambehindthisground-breakingreport,ledbyTae-YoonKimunderthedirectionofTimGould,fortheirworkinproducinganalysisofsuchhighquality,andmanyothercolleaguesfromacrosstheAgencywhobroughttheirexpertisetobearonthiscrucialtopic.Dr.FatihBirolExecutiveDirectorInternationalEnergyAgencyPAGE|2TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions TableofContentsTableofContentsExecutivesummary 4Introduction 19Thestateofplay 23Mineralrequirementsforcleanenergytransitions 42Low-carbonpowergeneration 54Electricitynetworks 75Electricvehiclesandbatterystorage 83Hydrogen 109Reliablesupplyofminerals 116Supplyprospectsforthefocusminerals 132Approachestoensurereliablemineralsupply 157Focusonrecycling 175Sustainableandresponsibledevelopmentofminerals 191Mineraldevelopmentandclimatechange 193Sustainablemineralsdevelopment 208Responsiblemineralsdevelopment 225Internationalco-ordination 239Annexes 246PAGE|3TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryExecutivesummaryPAGE|4TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryInthetransitiontocleanenergy,criticalmineralsbringnewchallengestoenergysecurityAnenergysystempoweredbycleanenergytechnologiesdiffersprofoundlyfromonefuelledbytraditionalhydrocarbonresources.Buildingsolarphotovoltaic(PV)plants,windfarmsandelectricvehicles(EVs)generallyrequiresmoremineralsthantheirfossilfuel-basedcounterparts.Atypicalelectriccarrequiressixtimesthemineralinputsofaconventionalcar,andanonshorewindplantrequiresninetimesmoremineralresourcesthanagas-firedpowerplant.Since2010,theaverageamountofmineralsneededforanewunitofpowergenerationcapacityhasincreasedby50%astheshareofrenewableshasrisen.Thetypesofmineralresourcesusedvarybytechnology.Lithium,nickel,cobalt,manganeseandgraphitearecrucialtobatteryperformance,longevityandenergydensity.RareearthelementsareessentialforpermanentmagnetsthatarevitalforwindturbinesandEVmotors.Electricitynetworksneedahugeamountofcopperandaluminium,withcopperbeingacornerstoneforallelectricity-relatedtechnologies.Theshifttoacleanenergysystemissettodriveahugeincreaseintherequirementsfortheseminerals,meaningthattheenergysectorisemergingasamajorforceinmineralmarkets.Untilthemid-2010s,theenergysectorrepresentedasmallpartoftotaldemandformostminerals.However,asenergytransitionsgatherpace,cleanenergytechnologiesarebecomingthefastest-growingsegmentofdemand.

InascenariothatmeetstheParisAgreementgoals,cleanenergytechnologies’shareoftotaldemandrisessignificantlyoverthenexttwodecadestoover40%forcopperandrareearthelements,60-70%fornickelandcobalt,andalmost90%forlithium.EVsandbatterystoragehavealreadydisplacedconsumerelectronicstobecomethelargestconsumeroflithiumandaresettotakeoverfromstainlesssteelasthelargestenduserofnickelby2040.Ascountriesacceleratetheireffortstoreduceemissions,theyalsoneedtomakesuretheirenergysystemsremainresilientandsecure.Today’sinternationalenergysecuritymechanismsaredesignedtoprovideinsuranceagainsttherisksofdisruptionsorpricespikesinsuppliesofhydrocarbons,particularlyoil.Mineralsofferadifferentanddistinctsetofchallenges,buttheirrisingimportanceinadecarbonisingenergysystemrequiresenergypolicymakerstoexpandtheirhorizonsandconsiderpotentialnewvulnerabilities.Concernsaboutpricevolatilityandsecurityofsupplydonotdisappearinanelectrified,renewables-richenergysystem.ThisiswhytheIEAispayingcloseattentiontotheissueofcriticalmineralsandtheirroleincleanenergytransitions.ThisreportreflectstheIEA’sdeterminationtostayaheadofthecurveonallaspectsofenergysecurityinafast-evolvingenergyworld.PAGE|5TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryTherapiddeploymentofcleanenergytechnologiesaspartofenergytransitionsimpliesasignificantincreaseindemandformineralsMineralsusedinselectedcleanenergytechnologiesTransport(kg/vehicle)CopperElectriccarLithiumConventionalcarNickelManganese50100150200250CobaltPowergeneration(kg/MW)GraphiteOffshorewindChromiumOnshorewindMolybdenumSolarPVZincNuclearRareearthsCoalSiliconNaturalgasOthers40008000120001600020000IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:kg=kilogramme;MW=megawatt.Steelandaluminiumnotincluded.SeeChapter1andAnnexfordetailsontheassumptionsandmethodologies.PAGE|6TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryTheenergysectorbecomesaleadingconsumerofmineralsasenergytransitionsaccelerateShareofcleanenergytechnologiesintotaldemandforselectedminerals100%80%60%40%20%20102020204020402010202020402040201020202040204020102020204020402010202020402040STEPSSDSSTEPSSDSSTEPSSDSSTEPSSDSSTEPSSDSLithiumCobaltNickelCopperRareearthelementsIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Demandfromothersectorswasassessedusinghistoricalconsumption,relevantactivitydriversandthederivedmaterialintensity.Neodymiumdemandisusedasindicativeforrareearthelements.STEPS=StatedPoliciesScenario,anindicationofwheretheenergysystemisheadingbasedonasector-by-sectoranalysisoftoday’spoliciesandpolicyannouncements;SDS=SustainableDevelopmentScenario,indicatingwhatwouldberequiredinatrajectoryconsistentwithmeetingtheParisAgreementgoals.PAGE|7TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryCleanenergytransitionswillhavefar-reachingconsequencesformetalsandminingOurbottom-upassessmentsuggeststhataconcertedefforttoreachthegoalsoftheParisAgreement(climatestabilisationat“wellbelow2°Cglobaltemperaturerise”,asintheIEASustainableDevelopmentScenario[SDS])wouldmeanaquadruplingofmineralrequirementsforcleanenergytechnologiesby2040.Anevenfastertransition,tohitnet-zerogloballyby2050,wouldrequiresixtimesmoremineralinputsin2040thantoday.Whichsectorsdotheseincreasescomefrom?Inclimate-drivenscenarios,mineraldemandforuseinEVsandbatterystorageisamajorforce,growingatleastthirtytimesto2040.Lithiumseesthefastestgrowth,withdemandgrowingbyover40timesintheSDSby2040,followedbygraphite,cobaltandnickel(around20-25times).Theexpansionofelectricitynetworksmeansthatcopperdemandforpowerlinesmorethandoublesoverthesameperiod.Theriseoflow-carbonpowergenerationtomeetclimategoalsalsomeansatriplingofmineraldemandfromthissectorby2040.Windtakesthelead,bolsteredbymaterial-intensiveoffshorewind.SolarPVfollowsclosely,duetothesheervolumeofcapacitythatisadded.Hydropower,biomassandnuclearmakeonlyminorcontributionsgiventheircomparativelylowmineralrequirements.Inothersectors,therapidgrowthofhydrogenasanenergycarrierunderpinsmajor

growthindemandfornickelandzirconiumforelectrolysers,andforplatinum-groupmetalsforfuelcells.Demandtrajectoriesaresubjecttolargetechnologyandpolicyuncertainties.Weanalysed11alternativecasestounderstandtheimpacts.Forexample,cobaltdemandcouldbeanythingfrom6to30timeshigherthantoday’slevelsdependingonassumptionsabouttheevolutionofbatterychemistryandclimatepolicies.Likewiserareearthelementsmayseethreetoseventimeshigherdemandin2040thantoday,dependingonthechoiceofwindturbinesandthestrengthofpolicysupport.Thelargestsourceofdemandvariabilitycomesfromuncertaintyaroundthestringencyofclimatepolicies.ThebigquestionforsuppliersiswhethertheworldisreallyheadingforascenarioconsistentwiththeParisAgreement.Policymakershaveacrucialroleinnarrowingthisuncertaintybymakingcleartheirambitionsandturningtargetsintoactions.Thiswillbevitaltoreduceinvestmentrisksandensureadequateflowofcapitaltonewprojects.Cleanenergytransitionsofferopportunitiesandchallengesforcompaniesthatproduceminerals.Todayrevenuefromcoalproductionistentimeslargerthanthosefromenergytransitionminerals.However,thereisarapidreversaloffortunesinaclimate-drivenscenario,asthecombinedrevenuesfromenergytransitionmineralsovertakethosefromcoalwellbefore2040.PAGE|8TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryMineraldemandforcleanenergytechnologieswouldrisebyatleastfourtimesby2040tomeetclimategoals,withparticularlyhighgrowthforEV-relatedmineralsMt

MineraldemandforcleanenergytechnologiesbyscenarioGrowthto2040bysectorGrowthofselectedmineralsintheSDS,2040relativeto202050Hydrogen=1)506x(20204240Electricitynetworks40Index30EVsandbattery304xstorage25Otherlow-carbon21202019powergeneration10Wind107SDSNet-zeroSolarPV2020LithiumGraphiteCobaltNickelRareearthsby2050scenarioIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Mt=milliontonnes.Includesallmineralsinthescopeofthisreport,butdoesnotincludesteelandaluminium.SeeAnnexforafulllistofminerals.PAGE|9TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryChangingfortunes:CoalvsenergytransitionmineralsUSDbillion(2019)

500400300200100

RevenuefromproductionofcoalandselectedenergytransitionmineralsintheSDSRareearthsSiliconManganeseGraphiteCobaltNickelLithiumCopperCoalEnergytransitionCoalEnergytransitionCoalEnergytransitionmineralsmineralsminerals202020302040IEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:Revenueforenergytransitionmineralsincludesonlythevolumerequiredincleanenergytechnologies,nottotaldemand.FuturepricesforcoalareprojectedequilibriumpricesinWEO2020SDS.Pricesforenergytransitionmineralsarebasedonconservativeassumptionsaboutfuturepricetrends(moderategrowthofaround10-20%fromtoday’slevels).PAGE|10TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryToday’smineralsupplyandinvestmentplansfallshortofwhatisneededtotransformtheenergysector,raisingtheriskofdelayedormoreexpensiveenergytransitionsTheprospectofarapidincreaseindemandforcriticalminerals–wellaboveanythingseenpreviouslyinmostcases–raiseshugequestionsabouttheavailabilityandreliabilityofsupply.Inthepast,strainsonthesupply-demandbalancefordifferentmineralshavepromptedadditionalinvestmentandmeasurestomoderateorsubstitutedemand.Buttheseresponseshavecomewithtimelagsandhavebeenaccompaniedbyconsiderablepricevolatility.Similarepisodesinthefuturecoulddelaycleanenergytransitionsandpushuptheircost.Giventheurgencyofreducingemissions,thisisapossibilitythattheworldcanillafford.Rawmaterialsareasignificantelementinthecoststructureofmanytechnologiesrequiredinenergytransitions.Inthecaseoflithium-ionbatteries,technologylearningandeconomiesofscalehavepusheddownoverallcostsby90%overthepastdecade.However,thisalsomeansthatrawmaterialcostsnowloomlarger,accountingforsome50-70%oftotalbatterycosts,upfrom40-50%fiveyearsago.Highermineralpricescouldthereforehaveasignificanteffect:adoublingoflithiumornickelpriceswouldinducea6%increaseinbatterycosts.Ifbothlithiumandnickelpricesweretodoubleatthesametime,thiswouldoffsetalltheanticipatedunitcostreductionsassociatedwithadoublingofbatteryproductioncapacity.Inthecaseofelectricitynetworks,copperandaluminiumcurrentlyrepresentaround20%of

totalgridinvestmentcosts.Higherpricesasaresultoftightsupplycouldhaveamajorimpactonthelevelofgridinvestment.Ouranalysisofthenear-termoutlookforsupplypresentsamixedpicture.Somemineralssuchasminedlithiumandcobaltareexpectedtobeinsurplusinthenearterm,whilelithiumchemicalproducts,battery-gradenickelandkeyrareearthelements(e.g.neodymiumanddysprosium)mightfacetightsupplyintheyearsahead.However,lookingfurtheraheadinascenarioconsistentwithclimategoals,expectedsupplyfromexistingminesandprojectsunderconstructionisestimatedtomeetonlyhalfofprojectedlithiumandcobaltrequirementsand80%ofcopperneedsby2030.Today’ssupplyandinvestmentplansaregearedtoaworldofmoregradual,insufficientactiononclimatechange(theSTEPStrajectory).Theyarenotreadytosupportacceleratedenergytransitions.Whilethereareahostofprojectsatvaryingstagesofdevelopment,therearemanyvulnerabilitiesthatmayincreasethepossibilityofmarkettightnessandgreaterpricevolatility:Highgeographicalconcentrationofproduction:Productionofmanyenergytransitionmineralsismoreconcentratedthanthatofoilornaturalgas.Forlithium,cobaltandrareearthelements,theworld’stopthreeproducingnationscontrolwelloverthree|11TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsquartersofglobaloutput.Insomecases,asinglecountryisresponsibleforaroundhalfofworldwideproduction.TheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo(DRC)andPeople’sRepublicofChina(China)wereresponsibleforsome70%and60%ofglobalproductionofcobaltandrareearthelementsrespectivelyin2019.Thelevelofconcentrationisevenhigherforprocessingoperations,whereChinahasastrongpresenceacrosstheboard.China’sshareofrefiningisaround35%fornickel,50-70%forlithiumandcobalt,andnearly90%forrareearthelements.ChinesecompanieshavealsomadesubstantialinvestmentinoverseasassetsinAustralia,Chile,theDRCandIndonesia.Highlevelsofconcentration,compoundedbycomplexsupplychains,increasetherisksthatcouldarisefromphysicaldisruption,traderestrictionsorotherdevelopmentsinmajorproducingcountries.Longprojectdevelopmentleadtimes:Ouranalysissuggeststhatithastakenonaverageover16yearstomoveminingprojectsfromdiscoverytofirstproduction.Theselongleadtimesraisequestionsabouttheabilityofsupplierstorampupoutputifdemandweretopickuprapidly.Ifcompanieswaitfordeficitstoemergebeforecommittingtonewprojects,thiscouldleadtoaprolongedperiodofmarkettightnessandpricevolatility.Decliningresourcequality:Concernsaboutresourcesrelatetoqualityratherthanquantity.Inrecentyears,orequalityhascontinuedtofallacrossarangeofcommodities.Forexample,theaveragecopperoregradeinChiledeclinedby30%overthepast

Executivesummary15years.Extractingmetalcontentfromlower-gradeoresrequiresmoreenergy,exertingupwardpressureonproductioncosts,greenhousegasemissionsandwastevolumes.Growingscrutinyofenvironmentalandsocialperformance:Productionandprocessingofmineralresourcesgivesrisetoavarietyofenvironmentalandsocialissuesthat,ifpoorlymanaged,canharmlocalcommunitiesanddisruptsupply.Consumersandinvestorsareincreasinglycallingforcompaniestosourcemineralsthataresustainablyandresponsiblyproduced.Withoutbroadandsustainedeffortstoimproveenvironmentalandsocialperformance,itmaybechallengingforconsumerstoexcludemineralsproducedwithpoorstandardsashigher-performingsupplychainsmaynotbesufficienttomeetdemand.Higherexposuretoclimaterisks:Miningassetsareexposedtogrowingclimaterisks.Copperandlithiumareparticularlyvulnerabletowaterstressgiventheirhighwaterrequirements.Over50%oftoday’slithiumandcopperproductionisconcentratedinareaswithhighwaterstresslevels.SeveralmajorproducingregionssuchasAustralia,China,andAfricaarealsosubjecttoextremeheatorflooding,whichposegreaterchallengesinensuringreliableandsustainablesupplies.Theseriskstothereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofmineralsupplyaremanageable,buttheyarereal.Howpolicymakersandcompaniesrespondwilldeterminewhethercriticalmineralsareavitalenablerforcleanenergytransitions,orabottleneckintheprocess.PAGE|12TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryProductionofmanyenergytransitionmineralstodayismoregeographicallyconcentratedthanthatofoilornaturalgasFossilfuelsMinerals

Shareoftopthreeproducingcountriesinproductionofselectedmineralsandfossilfuels,2019ExtractionProcessingOilfuelsOilrefiningUSUSNaturalgasUSFossilLNGexportQatarCopperChileCopperChinaNickelNickelIndonesiaChinaCobaltMineralsCobaltDRCChinaRareearthsLithiumChinaChinaLithiumAustraliaRareearthsChina0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%

QatarIndonesiaDRCPhilippinesChinaUSSaudiArabiaRussiaIranAustraliaChileJapanMyanmarPeruFinlandBelgiumArgentinaMalaysiaEstoniaIEA.Allrightsreserved.Notes:LNG=liquefiednaturalgas;US=UnitedStates.Thevaluesforcopperprocessingareforrefiningoperations.Sources:IEA(2020a);USGS(2021),WorldBureauofMetalStatistics(2020);AdamasIntelligence(2020).PAGE|13TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryNewandmorediversifiedsupplysourceswillbevitaltopavethewaytoacleanenergyfutureAsenergytransitionsgatherpace,securityofmineralsupplyisgainingprominenceintheenergysecuritydebate,arealmwhereoilhastraditionallyoccupiedacentralrole.Therearesignificantdifferencesbetweenoilsecurityandmineralsecurity,notablyintheimpactsthatanydisruptionmayhave.Intheeventofanoilsupplycrisis,allconsumersdrivinggasolinecarsordieseltrucksareaffectedbyhigherprices.Bycontrast,ashortageorspikeinthepriceofamineralaffectsonlythesupplyofnewEVsorsolarplants.ConsumersdrivingexistingEVsorusingsolar-poweredelectricityarenotaffected.Inaddition,thecombustionofoilmeansthatnewsupplyisessentialtothecontinuousoperationofoil-usingassets.However,mineralsareacomponentofinfrastructure,withthepotentialtoberecoveredandrecycled.Nonetheless,experiencefromoilmarketsmayoffersomevaluablelessonsforanapproachtomineralsecurity,inparticulartounderscorethatsupply-sidemeasuresneedtobeaccompaniedbywide-rangingeffortsencompassingdemand,technology,supplychainresilienceandsustainability.Rapid,orderlyenergytransitionsrequirestronggrowthininvestmentinmineralsuppliestokeepupwiththepaceofdemandgrowth.Policymakerscantakeavarietyofactionstoencouragenewsupply

projects:themostimportantistoprovideclearandstrongsignalsaboutenergytransitions.Ifcompaniesdonothaveconfidenceincountries’energyandclimatepolicies,theyarelikelytomakeinvestmentdecisionsbasedonmuchmoreconservativeexpectations.Giventhelongleadtimesfornewprojectdevelopments,thiscouldcreatebottleneckswhendeploymentofcleanenergytechnologiesstartstogrowrapidly.Diversificationofsupplyisalsocrucial;resource-owninggovernmentscansupportnewprojectdevelopmentbyreinforcingnationalgeologicalsurveys,streamliningpermittingprocedurestoshortenleadtimes,providingfinancingsupporttode-riskprojects,andraisingpublicawarenessofthecontributionthatsuchprojectsplayinthetransformationoftheenergysector.Reducingmaterialintensityandencouragingmaterialsubstitutionviatechnologyinnovationcanalsoplaymajorrolesinalleviatingstrainsonsupply,whilealsoreducingcosts.Forexample,40-50%reductionsintheuseofsilverandsiliconinsolarcellsoverthepastdecadehaveenabledaspectacularriseinsolarPVdeployment.Innovationinproductiontechnologiescanalsounlocksizeablenewsupplies.Emergingtechnologies,suchasdirectlithiumextractionorenhancedmetalrecoveryfromwastestreamsorlow-gradeores,offerthepotentialforastepchangeinfuturesupplyvolumes.PAGE|14TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitionsExecutivesummaryAstrongfocusonrecyclin