ARMA模型在传染病预测中的应用

贵州民族学院毕业论文贵州民族学院毕业论文#SAS系统SAS系统LagCorreiation18:33Monday,June3,200217TheARIMAProcedureInverse咅utocorrelations1-0.5976620.169943-0.16683■：+：：+：*40.14866：+：：+：：+：.5-0.08328■**60.03247：+!・70.04366:+：・8-0.03584・*-198765432101234567891PartialAutocorrelations120.85535-0.31904iji3-0.142074-0.2061450.03884:+：・6-0.0420970.07357:+：・80.08097：+!：+!■LagCorreiaticin-1765432101234567891(3)ARMA(2,0)模型:-datael;inputx@@;cards;2・口21・671■呂口1・5呂2・193・126・15呂■耳8.8710.0211・口6耳耳・7吕3・663・664・口33・9理5・145・3口3・653・63.773.933・口52■呂32■理61・6呂1■孕31・601・150.84匚1・6理-procarima;identifyvar=x;estimatep=2q=Orun;芒水总tm：lbluesday,June4?ZUUZTheARIMAProcedureNameofVariable=xMeanofWorkingSeries3.918824StandardDeviation2.520779NumberofObservations34StdError06.3543281.00000StdError06.3543281.0000015.4351870.05535■iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii1111111111T1111ip>!■"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T""T1"T"24.1049300.64601■illillillillillillillillillillillillill1111111111T1111ip>!■"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T132.6797110.42171■iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii■T,,T,,T,,T,,T,,T,,T,,T,.41.1686900.183925-0.013155-.002076-0.867474-.136527-1.276305-.200860-1.199983-.18805CovarianceCorrelation-198765432101234567891markstwowtandarderrors00.1714990.2691630.3114430.3278080.3308300.3300300.3324830.336033S莊：系统18:15Tuesday,June4?20022TheAF：IMAProcedureIm已rse^i」tocu「「已丨sti匚|「匡；LagCorrelation-1987654821U12345678911-0.5976620.16994■：+：*：!!・8-0.1668340.14866■：+：*：!!・5-0.08828■60.03247■:+:・70.04366■;+;・8-0.03584・：+:F'artialAutucorreIationsLagCorrelation-198765432101234567891120.85535-0.318043-0.142074-0.2061450.03884:+:・6-0.0420970.07357:+:・80.08097:+::+:■-datael;input.xljlj;tiinp=_n_;cards;2・口21・671■呂匸11・5呂2・193・124・266・158・4呂•呂71CI.CI23・663・664・32理・口!33・9理5・1理5・303・653・63E3・933・052■閃2■理61・681・931・6口1・150・84□・11