gre作文预测类第三讲

第三讲Outline1.预测类2.比较类3.阅读sample的方法预测类预测盈利型预计问题型预计不变型预计盈利型25.

"A

jazz

music

club

in

Monroe

would

be

a

tremendouslyprofitableenterprise.

Currently,

the

nearest

jazz

club

is

65

milesaway;

thus,

the

proposed

new

jazz

club

in

Monroe,

the

C-Note,would

have

the

local

market

allto

itself.

Plus,

jazz

is

extremelypopular

in

Monroe:

over

100,000

people

attended

Monroe'sannual

jazz

festival

last

summer;

several

well-known

jazz

musicianslive

in

Monroe;

and

the

highest-rated

radioprogram

in

Monroe

is'Jazz

Nightly,'

which

airs

every

weeknight

at

7

P.M.

Finally,

anationwide

study

indicates

that

the

typicaljazz

fanspends

close

to$1,000

per

year

on

jazz

entertainment."Write

a

response

in

which

you

discuss

what

specific

evidence

isneeded

to

evaluate

the

argument

and

explain

how

theevidencewould

weaken

or

strengthen

the

argument.39.

A

recent

sales

study

indicates

that

consumption

of

seafooddishes

in

Bay

City

restaurants

has

increased

by

30

percent

duringthe

past

five

years.

Yet

there

are

no

currently

operating

cityrestaurants

whose

specialty

is

seafood.

Moreover,

the

majorityof

families

in

Bay

City

are e

families,

and

a

nationwide

study

has

shown

that

such

families

eat

significantly

fewer

home-cooked

meals

than

they

did

a

decade

ago

but

at

the

same

timeexpress

more

concern

about

healthful

eating.

Therefore,

thenew

Captain

Seafood

restaurant

that

specializes

in

seafoodshould

be

quite

popular

and

profitable.Write

a

response

in

which

you

discuss

what

specific

evidence

isneeded

to

evaluate

the

argument

and

explain

how

the

evidencewould

weaken

or

strengthen

the

argument.

38.

The

following

appeared

in

a

memo

from

the

new

vice

presidentof

Sartorian,

acompanythat

manufacturesmen'sclothing."Five

years

ago,

at

a

time

when

we

had

difficulties

inobtainingreliable

suppliesof

high

quality

wool

fabric,

we

discontinuedproductionofouralpaca

overcoat.Nowthat

we

haveanew

fabricsupplier,

weshouldresumeproduction.This

coatshouldsellverywell:since

we

have

not

offered

an

alpaca

overcoat

for

five

years

and

sinceour

majorcompetitornolonger

makesanalpaca

overcoat,therewillbe

pent-up

customer

demand.

Also,

since

the

price

of

most

types

ofclothing

hasincreased

ineach

of

thepast

five

years,customers

shouldbe

willing

to

pay

significantly

higher

prices

for

alpaca

overcoats

thanthey

did

five

years

ago,

and

our

company

profits

will

increase."Write

a

response

in

which

you

discuss

what

specific

evidence

isneeded

to

evaluate

the

argument

and

explain

how

the

evidencewouldweaken

orstrengthen

theargument.预测盈利类的特点1.结论Should

be

quite

popular

and

profitable2.理由Reason

1:群众很感兴趣Reason

2:消费潜力很大Reason

3:尚未有人开发这个市场预计盈利型25.“A

jazz

music

club

in

Monroe

would

be

a

tremendouslyprofitable

enterprise.

Currently,

the

nearest

jazz

club

is

65miles

away;

thus,

the

proposed

new

jazz

club

in

Monroe,

theC-Note,

would

have

the

local

market

all

to

itself.(市场潜力)

Plus,

jazz

is

extremely

popular

in

Monroe:

over

100,000people

attended

Monroe‘s

annual

jazz

festival

last

summer;several

well-known

jazz

musicians

live

in

Monroe;

and

thehighest-rated

radio

program

in

Monroe

is

’JazzNightly,‘which

airs

every

weeknight

at

7

P.M.（群众兴趣）

Finally,

a

nationwide

study

indicates

that

the

typical

jazz

fanspends

close

to

$1,000

per

year

on

jazz

entertainment.“(消费潜力大）38.“Five

years

ago,

at

a

time

whenwehaddifficultiesinobtaining

reliablesuppliesofhigh

quality

woolfabric,wediscontinued

production

of

our

alpaca

overcoat.Now

thatwehaveanewfabricsupplier,weshouldresumeproduction.

Thiscoatshouldsellverywell:sincewehavenot

offeredan

alpaca

overcoatfor

fiveyears

and

sinceourmajorcompetitor

nolongermakesanalpaca

overcoat,there

will

bepent-up

customer

demand.市场潜力Also,sincetheprice

ofmosttypesofclothing

hasincreasedineachofthepastfiveyears,customersshouldbewillingto

pay

significantly

higher

prices

for

alpaca

overcoatsthantheydidfiveyearsago,andourcompany

profitswillincrease.“消费潜力A

recent

sales

study

indicates

that

consumption

of seafood

dishes

in

Bay

City

restaurants

has

increased by

30

percent

during

the

past

five

years.消费潜力Yet

there

are

no

currently

operating

city

restaurants whose

specialty

is

seafood.市场空间大Moreover,

the

majority

of

families

in

Bay

City

are

e families,

and

a

nationwide

study

has

shown

that such

families

eat

significantly

fewer

home-cooked meals

than

they

did

a

decade

ago

but

at

the

same timeexpressmoreconcernabouthealthfuleating.群 众兴趣

群众兴趣The

majority

of

families

in

Bay

City

are e

families,

and

anationwide

study

has

shown

that

such

families

eatsignificantly

fewer

home-cooked

meals

than

they

did

adecade

ago

but

at

the

same

time

express

more

concern

abouthealthful

eating.Problem:1.a

nation

wide

study

could

not

reflect

the

situation

in

BayCity.范围的问题2.

The

author

falsely

assumes

that

sea

food

is

healthy

food.3.

The

fact

that e

families

express

more

concern

about

eatinghealthily

does

not

indicate

that

they

will

necessarily

patronize

a

new

seafood

restaurant.消费潜力A

recent

sales

study

indicates

that

consumption

of

seafood

dishesin

Bay

Cityrestaurants

hasincreased

by

30

percent

duringthe

past

five

years.消费潜力Problem:1.消费潜力是否大The

baseamount

of

seafood

consumption

in

Bay

Cityfiveyears

ago.

The

30%increase

might

be

insignificant.2.即使大，是否会持续Evenifthe30%increaseissignificant,

whether

themomentum

will

continue

in

the

future

is

open

to

doubt.成本问题Yet

there

are

no

currently

operating

city

restaurants

whosespecialty

is

seafood.

市场空间大其他店没有开肯定有原因The

author

fails

to

take

other

factors

of

opening

a restaurant

into

account.

没有衡量利弊论证结构有没有兴趣？有没有消费潜力成本问题逻辑问题总结预计不变型43.The

following

appearedinamemorandumwritten

bythechairpersonoftheWestEgg

TownCouncil."Twoyearsago,consultantspredicted

thatWestEgg's

landfill,

which

is

used

for

garbage

disposal,would

be

completely

filled

within

fiveyears.

During

the

past

two

years,however,

the

town's

residents

havebeen

recycling

twice

as

much

materialasthey

did

in

previous

years.Next

monththeamountofrecycled

material—whichincludespaper,plastic,and

metal—shouldfurther

increase,

since

charges

for

pickup

ofotherhouseholdgarbagewilldouble.Furthermore,over90percentof

therespondentstoarecent

surveysaidthat

theywoulddomorerecycling

in

thefuture.Because

ofourtown'sstrongcommitment

torecycling,

theavailable

spaceinourlandfillshouldlast

forconsiderably

longer

than

predicted."Write

a

response

in

which

you

discuss

what

specific

evidence

isneeded

to

evaluate

the

argument

and

explain

how

the

evidencewouldweaken

orstrengthen

theargument.33.

The

following

appeared

in

a

memorandum

from

the

planningdepartment

of

an

electric

power

company."Several

recent

surveysindicate

that

home

owners

are

increasinglyeager

to

conserve

energy.

At

the

same

time,

manufacturers

are

nowmarketing

many

home

appliances,

such

as

refrigerators

andairconditioners,

that

are

almost

twice

as

energy

efficient

as

those

sold

adecade

ago.

Also,

new

technologies

for

better

home

insulation

andpassive

solarheating

are

readily

available

to

reduce

the

energy

needed

for

home

heating.

Therefore,

the

totaldemand

for

electricityin

our

area

will

notincrease—and

may

decline

slightly.

Since

our

threeelectric

generating

plants

in

operation

for

the

past

twenty

yearshavealwaysmet

our

needs,

construction

of

new

generating

plants

will

notbenecessary."Write

a

response

in

which

you

examine

the

stated

and/or

unstatedassumptions

oftheargument.

Besuretoexplain

howtheargumentdepends

on

these

assumptions

and

what

the

implications

are

for

theargument

if

the

assumptionsprove

unwarranted.特点1.结论Not

necessary,

will

last…2.理由并列：需求不断减少3.错误的根本原因---只考虑一个影响因素预计不变型"Twoyearsago,consultantspredicted

thatWestEgg's

landfill,

whichis

used

for

garbage

disposal,would

be

completely

filled

within

fiveyears.During

the

past

two

years,

however,

the

town‘s

residents

havebeenrecycling

twice

as

much

material

as

they

did

in

previous

years.

Nextmonth

the

amount

of

recycled

material—which

includes

paper,

plastic,and

metal—shouldfurther

increase,

since

charges

for

pickup

ofotherhouseholdgarbagewilldouble.Furthermore,

over

90

percent

of

the

respondents

to

a

recent

surveysaidthattheywoulddomorerecycling

in

thefuture.Because

ofourtown's

strong

commitment

to

recycling,

the

available

space

inourlandfillshouldlast

forconsiderablylonger

thanpredicted."Write

a

response

in

which

you

discuss

what

specific

evidence

isneeded

to

evaluate

the

argument

and

explain

how

the

evidencewouldweaken

orstrengthen

theargument.常见逻辑问题During

the

past

two

years,

however,

the

town‘sresidents

have

beenrecycling

twice

as

much

materialas

they

didin

previous

years.

Nextmonth

the

amount

of

recycled

material—which

includes

paper,

plastic,andmetal—should

further

increase,

since

charges

for

pickup

of

otherhousehold

garbage

will

double.Problem:Furthermore,

over90percent

ofthe

respondents

toarecent

survey

saidthat

they

would

do

more

recycling

in

the

future.

Because

of

our

town'sstrong

commitment

to

recycling,

the

available

space

in

our

landfill

shouldlast

for

considerably

longer

thanpredicted."33."Several

recent

surveys

indicate

that

home

owners

areincreasingly

eager

to

conserve

energy.At

the

same

time,