资料内容文本lcd共享ds-2006q4-quarterly large area tft lcd shipment report-061212

Quarterly

Large-Area

TFT

LCDShipment

ReportQ4’06Dec

12,

2006Copyright

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Large-Area

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LCD

Shipment

Report1Quarterly

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

ShipmentsCopyright

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ReportCopyright

©

2006

DisplaySearch,

an

NPD

Group

CompanyEvery

effort

hasbeen

made

to

ensure

the

accuracy

of

this

report.However,

noresponsibility

willbeaccepted

for

the

accuracy

of

the

facts,

analysis

or

forecasts

oany

part

of

this

report.

No

reproduction

of

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document

or

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subset

is

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info@ContentsCopyright

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LCD

Shipment

ReportSection

1.0

Executive

Summary

4Section

2.0

Methodology

26Section

3.1

Recent

Results

Section

3.2

Trend

Analysis2951Section

4.0

Shipments

&

Revenues

by

Supplier6186149Section

5.0

NotebookDisplayShipments

Section

6.0

Monitor

Display

Shipments

Section

7.0

TV

Display

Shipments

206Section

8.0

Other

Display

Shipments265Section

1.0

Executive

SummaryExecutive

SummaryCopyright

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Large-Area

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ReportOverviewCopyright

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Shipment

Report

Unit

shipments

increased

20%

Q/Qand

29%

Y/Y

to

77.2

million

onthe

strengthof

TV

module

shipments

in

Q3’06,

which

grew

25%

Q/Q

and

90%Y/Y.

Areal

(m²)

shipments

increased

26%

Q/Q

and

56%

Y/Y

to

9.2

million

m²

on

thegrowth

of

television

display

size,

which

increased

3%

Q/Q

and

13%

Y/Y.

Revenue

increased

14%

Q/Q

and

9%

Y/Y

to

$13,416M

in

Q3’06

as

televisionpanel

sales

increased

13%

Q/Qand71%

Y/Y

to

$5,885M.

Average

unit

price

decreased

6%

Q/Q

and

16%

Y/Y

to

$174

in

Q3’06.

Theaverage

TV

panel

price

fell

10%

Q/Q

despite

the

average

size

increase.

Averagearea

price

decreased

10%

Q/Q

and

30%

Y/Y

to

$1451/m²

but

demandelasticity

turned

up

to

indicate

a

crystal

cycle

upturn.The

weighted-average

display

edge

(WADE)

increased

2%

Q/Q

and

10%

Y/Y

to13.6”.

The

WADE

of

TV

panels

increased

3%

Q/Q

and

13%

Y/Y

in

Q3"06.Four

large-area

sizes

accounted

for

51%

of

all

display

area

sold

in

Q3"06.17”

Monitor

panels

were24.3%

of

all

large-area

units

and

15.6%

of

revenues.32”

TV

panels

were6.5%

of

units

and

13.8%

of

revenues.19”

Monitor

panels

were12.0%

of

units

and

9.6%

of

revenues.15.4”

Notebook

panels

were10.0%

of

units

and

5.6%

of

revenues.What’s

New?Copyright

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•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportWe

now

provide

panel

producers’

shipment

targets

for

two

future

quarters.

DisplaySearch

continues

to

forecast

aggregate

units

andsales

byproductsegment.

We

do

not

forecast

shipments

or

sales

by

panel

producer.Producers’

targets

as

communicated

to

us

are

shown

for

two

future

quarters.Such

targetsdonot

necessarily

represent

ourviewsbut

they

canbeuseful.In

this

report,

we

show

producer’s

targets

for

Q4’06

and

Q1’07.

The

display

area

of

TV

modules

sold

in

Q3’06

to

exceeded

the

areal

sales

ofMonitor

modules

for

the

first

time.

We

expect

TV

this

will

continue.

The

areal

price

premium

forwide-format

displays

fell

to

0%

in

the

Notebook

andTV

market

segments

in

Q3’06.

We

expect

wide-format

premiums

will

continuedecrease

over

time

as

wide-format

shipments

increase.

Taiwanese

producers

shipped

more

large-display

area

on

an

OEM

basis

thanKorean

producers

did

in

Q3’06.

This

may

continue.

Korean

producers

obtained

more

revenue

share

than

Taiwaneseproducers

didhowever.

Their

share

of

TV

sales

may

cause

this

to

continue.

On

amonthlybasis,

demand

elasticity

relative

to

areal

price

turnedupin

Q3’06,indicating

a

boom

in

the

crystal

cycle.Composition

of

Large-area

Revenue

The

average

TV

panelsize

increased

and

theASP

decreased

to

$437.TV

market

revenue

was$5,885M

on

14.9M

units.Notebook

ASP

fell

from$113in

Q2

to

$104.

Unitdemand

rose

14%

tocreate

sales

of

$2,165M.

Monitor

module

ASP

fellfrom

$131

in

Q1

to

$128.Unit

demand

rose

23%

to39,122k

units.

Sales

rose37%

to

$4,989M

in

Q3"06.

Other

large-area

sales

fell4%

Q/Q

to

$377M

as

ASPfell

6%

to

$154.Units,

Price

and

Revenue

by

Large

TFT

LCD

Market,

Q3"06[

Units

in

millions,

ASP

in

US$

and

Revenuesin

millions

of

US$

]The

box

areas

are

proportional

to

revenues

by

market

segment.$2,165

MMonitor$5,885

MTelevision

Notebook$104$154$377Other$12814.9

MUnits20.7

M2.5

M39.1

M$4,989

MASP$437Copyright

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ReportRevenue

by

Market

SegmentRevenuefrom

Notebooks

fell13%

Y/Y

in

Q3"06

to

comprise

16%

of

large

area

sales

inQ3’05.

The

sales

share

of

willdecline

going

forwards.Monitor

display

sales

declined17%

Y/Y

in

Q3"06

as

average

areal

price

fell

34%

Y/Y

and

area

demand

grew

only

25%from

Q3’05

levels.

Monitormarket

sales

comprised

37%of

large-area

sales.TV

applications

are

providingmost

of

the

revenue

growth.

TVpanelsalesincreased71%

Y/Yin

Q3"06

and

generated

44%

oflarge-area

revenue.Other

application

sales

rose

9%

Y/Y

but

accounted

for

only

3%of

large-area

sales

in

Q3"06.

Overall

large-area

sales

rose

9%

Y/Y

in

Q3’06.PC

display

market

segments

are

generating

declining

rates

of

sales

growth.

Thetrend

is

a

power

function

growing

about

than

1%

a

quarter

in

2007.The

TV

market

segment

drives

total

large-area

sales

growth

by

increasingexponentially

140%

a

year

from

Q1’03

to

Q2’06.Revenuesby

Large-Area

Market

Segment[

US$

millions

]Copyright

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ReportRevenue

by

RegionKoreanproducers

retained

theleading

position

in

OEM

salesbut

their

area

shipment

sharefell

to

44%

in

Q3’06.Korean

producer

OEM

salesgrew

10%

Y/Y

while

TaiwanOEM

sales

grew

18%

Y/Y.Taiwanese

producer

sales

wereup

19%

Q/Q

and

18%

Y/Y

to

a42%

share

in

Q3’06.Japanese

producer

share

ofOEM

sales

fell

to

9%

in

Q3"06by

selling

2%

lessQ/Q,

aboutthe

level

of

Q2’05.Chinese

producer’s

sales

sharerose

to

4%

after

selling

22%

more

Q/Q

but

23%

less

Y/Y.DisplaySearch

expects

Koreanproducers

to

keep

the

lead

in2H’06

as

their

share

growsslightly

on

ramp-up

of

new

fabs.Large-Area

Revenuesby

OEM

Region[

USD

millions

]Revenues

in

millions

of

US

dollars

basedon

OEM

sales.Revenuesare

credited

to

headquarters,

e.g.

BOE

sales

are

credited

to

China.Copyright

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Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportRevenue

by

SupplierThe

top-5

suppliers

decreasedtheir

combined

large-arearevenue

share

to

81%

in

Q3"06.SEC

held

on

to

the

topspotwith

a

6%

sales

increase

Q/Qand

a

17%

increase

Y/Y.LPL

retained

second

position

inQ3’06

by

raising

sales

18%

Q/Qand

3%

Y/Y.AUO+QDIcamein

third

place

in

Q3"06

on

the

strength

of

QDINotebook

display

sales.

Salesrose

13%

Q/Q

and

16%

Y/Y.CMO

sales

rose

22%

Q/Q

and19%

Y/Y

in

Q3’06.CPT

replaced

Sharp

at

the

#5position

in

Q3’06

with

a

6%share.

CPT

sales

were

up

15%Q/Q

and

17%

Y/Y.Top-5

Large-areaSupplierRevenues

and

Combined

Share[

US$

millions,

percentage

]Note

that

QDI

sales

have

been

combined

with

those

of

AUO

to

reflect

theirpending

merger

retroactively.Copyright

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ReportTop-5

Producers’

Area

Share

On

an

OEM

basis,

the

top-5

hope

to

increase

their

share

of

Notebook

output

andsustain

their

share

of

the

TV

market.The

top-5

share

of

other

large-area

display

appears

to

decline.Copyright

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ReportTop-5

Producers’

Area

Apportionment

On

an

OEM

shipment

basis,

the

top-5

producers

plan

to

put

more

of

their

outputinto

TV

applications.PC

applications

will

receive

less

of

the

leaders’

display

area

output.Copyright

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ReportTop-5

Suppliers’

Notebook

Display

SalesThe

leading

suppliers

of

panelsfor

Notebooks

increased

theirrevenue

share

to

90%

in

Q3"06.Weexpect

their

share

to

rise.LPL

Notebook

panel

revenuerose

24%

Q/Q

and

6%

Y/Y

tomake

it

the

leader

in

Q3’06.SEC

sales

of

Notebook

panelsrose

7%

Q/Q

but

declined

22%

Y/Y

in

Q3’06.Combining

AUO

with

QDIcreates

the

#3

Notebook

panelsupplier.

Sales

fell

3%

Q/Q

and5%

Y/Y

in

Q3’06

as

AUO

beganadjusting

QDI

allocation.CMO

sales

rose

38%

Q/Q

and20%

Y/Y

in

Q3’06.TMD

replaced

CPT

in

the

#5spot

in

Q3’06.

Sales

rose

4%

Q/Q

but

fell

45%

Y/Y

as

TMDcontinues

to

adjust

its

mix.Top-5

Display

Suppliers’

Notebook

Revenues

and

Shares[

US$

millions,

percentage

of

total

Notebook

application

sales

]The

Notebook

panel

market

has

become

more

concentrated

since

Q1’05.We

expect

the

top

five

suppliers

to

increase

their

combined

share

in

2H’06.Copyright

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ReportLeading

Notebook

Display

AllocatorsTFT

LCD

producers

haveallocated

a

decreasing

portionof

their

capacity

to

serve

the

PCNotebook

market

over

the

pastseveral

years.

Demand

for

PCNotebooks

has

increased

butcapacity

has

increasedfaster.QDI

allocated

more

of

itscapacity

to

Notebook

displaysthan

any

other

producer.

AUOis

changing

the

mix

however.TMD

continues

to

decrease

itsallocation

to

Notebook

panelsbut

it

remains

#2.LPL

increased

its

capacity

andits

Notebook

allocation.TPO

increased

its

allocation

ofcapacity

for

Notebook

panels

inQ3’06

and

replaced

CPT

at

#5.OEM

Allocationof

Capacityto

PC

Notebook

Displays[

Portion

of

capacity

(m²)

sold

as

Notebook

display

area

]This

chart

evaluates

the

OEM

shipments

of

each

TFT

LCD

producer

relative

to

itsareal

capacity.Copyright

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Shipment

ReportTop-5

Suppliers’

Monitor

Display

SalesThe

top-5

suppliers

have

lostshare

in

the

Monitor

modulemarket

in

recent

quarters.Chinese

and

other

competitorshave

captured

share.

We

expect

this

trend

to

continue.SEC

sustained

its

sales

lead

inQ3"06

with

a

share

of

20%.Monitorrevenuegrew

8%

Q/Qbut

declined

of

20%

Y/Y.AUO

(with

QDI)

was

#2

with

a18%

share

in

Q3’06.

Sales

rose22%

Q/Q

but

fell

of

22%

Y/Y.LPL

sales

rose

11%

Q/Q

but

fell44%

Y/Y

to

stay

#3

with

a

15%sharein

Q3’06.CMO

Monitor

application

salesgrew

29%

Q/Q

and

6%

Y/Y

togive

it

a

12%

share

in

Q3’06.CPT

sales

rose

15%

Q/Q

butfell

4%

Y/Y

to

a

10%

share.The

Monitor

display

market

segment

has

become

less

concentrated

with

morerivalry

as

SVA

NEC

increased

its

output.Top-5

Display

Suppliers’

Monitor

Revenues

and

Shares[

US$

millions,

percentage

of

total

Notebook

application

sales

]Copyright

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LCD

Shipment

ReportLeading

Monitor

Display

AllocatorsThe

leading

suppliers

have

been

decreasing

their

portion

ofcapacity

devoted

to

Monitors

asthey

concentrate

on

TV.Second-tier

suppliers

havestepped

into

fill

the

needs

ofthiscommoditymarket.FOX

(Innolux)

has

ramped

itsproduction

for

Monitor

panelsand

sold

from

inventory.SVA

did

not

change

its

productmix.

The

change

in

capacity

use

results

from

inventory

andproductivity.HSD

has

been

consistent.

Also,it

sold

an

older

fab

to

Wintek.CPT

has

also

been

consistentin

its

use

of

capacity.BOE

has

financial

problems

and

capacity

utilization

may

bedepressed.OEM

Allocation

of

Capacityto

PC

Monitor

Displays[

Portion

of

capacity

(m²)

sold

asMonitor

display

area

]This

chart

evaluates

the

OEM

shipments

of

each

TFT

LCD

producer

relative

to

itsareal

capacity.Copyright

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LCD

Shipment

ReportTop-5

Suppliers’

TV

Display

SalesThe

top-5

suppliers

have

lostshare

in

the

TV

panel

marketbut

they

remain

dominant.SEC

(with

S-LCD)

kept

its

leadin

Q3"06

with

sales

growth

of

5%

Q/Q

and

99%

Y/Y

for

a

30%

revenue

share.LPL

grew

TV

panelsales

19%

Q/Q

and

74%

Y/Y

to

a

24%sharein

Q3’06.AUO+QDI

TV

sales

rose

14%Q/Q

and

109%

Y/Y

to

a

17%share,

staying

#3

in

Q3’05.CMO

captured

a

13%

share

bygrowing

sales

16%

Q/Q

and

37%Y/Y.Sharp

captured

an

11%

sharewith

flat

sales

Q/Q

and

a

1%decline

from

Q3’05.The

TV

display

market

segment

has

become

more

concentrated

as

leadersallocate

less

capacity

for

Monitors

and

more

capacity

for

TV

modules.Technical

leadership

also

concentrates

market

share.Top-5

TV

Display

Suppliers’

Revenue

and

Share[

US$

millions,

percentage

of

total

Notebook

application

sales

]Copyright

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Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportLeading

TV

Display

AllocatorsThe

top-5

allocators

of

capacityto

TV

panels

increased

their

level

of

allocation

in

Q3’06.Sharp

continues

to

allocatemore

of

its

TFT

capacity

toserve

the

TV

market

than

otherproducers

do.HIT

(Hitachi)

has

increased

itslarge-panel

output.SEC

continues

to

increase

itsallocation

of

capacity

to

TVbecause

it,

like

Sharp,

has

a

TVbrand

to

support.LPL

has

also

invested

in

large-glass

fabs.CMO

allocation

is

greater

thanit

was

in

Q3’05

but

it

has

notchanged

much.OEMAllocation

of

Capacityto

TV

Displays[

Portion

of

capacity

(m²)

sold

as

TV

display

area

]This

chart

evaluates

the

OEM

shipments

of

each

TFT

LCD

producer

relative

to

itsareal

capacity.Copyright

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TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportDisplay

Area

Sold

by

MarketSegmentLarge-area

panel

suppliers

sold26%

more

display

area

Q/Qand

56%

more

Y/Y

in

Q3’06.TV

display

area

increased

32%

Q/Q

and

140%

Y/Y

to

become43%

of

the

total.Display

area

shipped

for

PCMonitors

increased

24%

Q/Qand

25%

Y/Y

in

Q3’06

to

be

42%of

all

large-panel

area.Notebook

display

area

was

14%of

the

total

after

growing

14%Q/Q

and

20%

Y/Y.

This

originalapplication

for

TFT

LCD

willconsume

less

capacity

eachquarter

despite

rising

demandfor

Notebook

PC.Other

applications

consumed1%of

large-panel

area

aftergrowing

13%

Q/Q

and

9%

Y/Yin

Q3’06.Display

Area

Sold

and

Area

Share

by

Market[1000m²

of

display

and

percentage

of

total

]This

chart

lists

the

display

area

sold

by

market

segment

and

plots

its

share

of

totallarge-display

area

sold.Copyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

All

Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportWide

Format

Display

RevenueThe

portion

of

display

area

soldas

wide-format

panels

rosefrom

13%

in

Q3’03

to

61%

inQ3"06.

We

expect

the

area

share

ofwide-format

modulesto

increase

as

TV

applicationsbecome

a

greater

portion

of

thetotal

large-area

display

market.TV

applications

accounted

for66%

of

wide

format

area

sold

inQ3"06,

the

same

as

in

Q3’05.Wide-format

area

sold

for

PCapplications

increased

from

30%of

all

wide-format

sales

inQ3’05

to

32%

in

Q3’06.The

Notebook

share

of

widedeclined

from

24%

to

20%

Y/Y.The

Monitor

share

of

wide

rosefrom

7%

to

13%

Y/Y.As

wide-format

area

soldincreases,

the

wide

areal-pricepremium

decreases.Wide

Format

Display

Area

Sold

by

Application[1000

m²;

percent

of

wide

area

and

percent

of

large

area

]Wide-format

displays

have

horizontal/vertical

pixel

ratios

greater

than

4/3.Numbers

for

Q3’06

and

Q4’06

come

from

supplier

targets.Copyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

All

Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportWide

Format

Display

Price

PremiumWide

format

displays

earn

lessof

a

price/m²

premium

as

theybecomemoremainstream.As

producers

rush

to

capturemore

share

of

wide

displaysales,

they

reduce

the

value

ofcapturing

wide

display

share.The

wide-format

price

premiumdecreased

from

35%

in

Q3’03

to

14%

in

Q3"06

as

the

area

share

of

PC

displays

declinedand

TV

display

sales

hadgreater

influence.The

areal

price

premium

forwide

Notebook

panels

variesabout

zero

already.The

premium

for

wide

Monitorpanels

is

declining

rapidly.Wide

formats

were

only

18%

oflarge-area

shipments

in

Q3’06so

wide

prices

should

fallquickly

as

volumes

rise.Wide-format

Areal

Price

Premiums

by

Application[

percentage

difference

]The

premium

is(Wide

Price/m²

divided

by

Normal

Price/m²)

–

1.Copyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

All

Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportAverage

Unit

PriceThe

average

unit

price

(AUP

orASP)

fell

6%

Q/Q

and

16%

Y/Yin

Q3"06.

Larger

TV

panelspulled

the

average

up.Since

Q1’03,

the

average

pricefor

large

panelshas

fallen

8.7%a

year.Panel

makers

expect

the

ASPof

Monitor

panels

to

rise

slightlyin

Q4’06.

They

expect

unit

priceto

fall

in

other

markets.Notebook

panel

AUP

fell

7%

Q/Q

and

28%

Y/Y

in

Q3"06.Monitor

display

AUP

fell

3%

Q/Q

and

30%

Y/Y.TV

panel

price

fell

10%

Q/Q

and

10%

Y/Y

as

the

typical

sizeincreased.Check

our

website

for

the

latestestimates

ofpanel

prices

in

ourfreePriceWise

report.Average

Price/unit

by

Market

Segment[

US$

]The

total

average

unit

price

includes

large-area

sales

for

other

applications.Copyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

All

Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportAverage

Display

Size·

The

average

display

edge

was13.6”

in

Q3"06,

up

2%

Q/Q

and10%

Y/Y.

We

expect

it

to

growwith

the

average

TV

size.The

size

of

Notebook

panels

has

not

changed

in

severalyears.

Wide-format

units

do

notincrease

the

average

area.The

average

Monitor

panel

sizewas

flat

Q/Q

but

increased

2%

Y/Y

to

12.4”

in

Q3"06.The

average

size

of

TV

panelshas

grown

exponentially

at

14%a

year.

The

WADE

was

up

3%Q/Q

an

13%

Y/Y

to

20.3”

inQ3"06.

We

expect

TV

size

will

increase

further

on

trend

for

another

year

or

two.Weighted

Average

Display

Edge[

inches

per

side

]The

weighted-average

display

edge

(WADE)

is

thesquare-root

of

the

averagedisplay

area.

It

is

a

better

linear

measure

of

display

size

than

the

diagonal

inch

isbecause

WADE

is

aspect-ratio

independent.Copyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

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Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportAverage

Area

Price

(AAP

or

US$/m²)The

average

area

price

(AAP)falls

about

20%

a

year

withfluctuations

through

the

crystalcycle.

The

AAP

fell

10%

Q/Qand

30%

Y/Y

in

Q3"06.Notebook

panels

tend

to

holdgreater

value

because

of

theirsemi-custom

nature.

The

AAPfell

7%

Q/Q

and

27%

Y/Y.Monitor

panel

AAP

fell

4%

Q/Qand

34%

Y/Y

in

Q3"06.The

Y/Ydecline

was

more

acute

thanthe

23%

long-term

rate.

The

AAP

for

TV

displays

fell

14%

Q/Q

and

29%

Y/Y

in

Q3"06.We

expect

declines

to

continuesince

the

long-term

rate

is

24%a

year.Note

that

the

areal

price

of

TVpanels

has

fallen

below

that

ofNotebook

panels,

already.Average

Price/m²

by

Market

Segment[

US$/m²

]The

total

average

areal

price

includes

large-area

sales

for

other

applications.Copyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

All

Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportSummaryCopyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

All

Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportThe

market

for

large

TFT

LCD

remains

cyclical.The

average

price/m²

will

continue

declining

into

Q1’07.

The

averge

areal

price

for

Monitorpanels

could

flatten

or

rise

slightly

but

theaverage

TV

price/m²

will

probably

fall

continuously.

Decreasing

rivalry

among

leadingNotebookpanel

suppliers

could

help

stabilizeprices

over

the

mid

term.

Revenue

growth

from

the

Monitor

market

segment

is

slowing

as

it

matures

andas

Notebooks

satisfy

an

increasing

portion

of

PC

demand.

Leading

producers

will

fight

for

TV

revenue

share

and

use

more

of

their

capacityto

servethis

expanding

market

segment.

Koreanproducershaveregained

the

lead

in

capacityandlarge-area

output

andwill

preserve

the

lead

into

2007.

The

opportunity

to

capture

price

premiums

by

offering

wide-format

panels

isending.

It

is

over

for

Notebook

panels

already.Section

2.0

MethodologyMethodologyCopyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

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Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

ReportDefinitions

and

MethodsCopyright

@

2006

DisplaySearch

All

Worldwide

Rights

Reserved

•ConfidentialQ4’06

Large-Area

TFT

LCD

Shipment

Report

We

obtain

shipment

data

by

surveying

panel

suppliers.

We

verify

this

informationby

surveying

upstream

component

suppl