世界能源展望2023

2023EnergyPerspectivesGlobalmacroeconomicandenergymarket

outlookWE

BUILDTOO

MANYWALLSANDNOT

ENOUGHBRIDGESSir

Isaac

Newton2

|

EnergyPerspectives2023Table

ofcontentsPhotocreditsPage3Page4Page5Page5Page7JohannaMontoya,

UnsplashTable

ofcontents���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3Thescenarios����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

4Key

insightsfrom

EnergyPerspectives2023�����������������������7Appendix�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������12Key

figures����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������13Unitsanddefinitions�����������������������������������������������������������������������������14Acknowledgementsanddisclaimer�����������������������������������������15JoshuaKettle,

UnsplashFabio

Comparelli,UnsplashMarcusLoke,

UnsplashJonatanPie,UnsplashPage12

JanKopriva,UnsplashPage14

ZbynekBurival,UnsplashPage15

OleJørgenBratland,EquinorEnergyPerspectives2023

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3THESCENARIOS4

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EnergyPerspectives2023ThescenariosEnergy

Perspectives

presentstwoscenariosfor

globaldevelopmentandfuture

globalenergy

markets:WallsandBridges.Thescenariosstartfrom

theworldasitistoday,wheretheenergytransitionhasbegunbuthasyetto

accelerateto

thespeedrequired

to

achievethegoalsoftheParisAgreement�Theysharenear-identicalpathsup

until2025,

atwhichpointtheystartto

diverge�Walls

showsapathwayofwheretheworldcouldgoifitcontinuesto

broadlyfollowcurrenttrends,whilstBridges

illustratesapathwaytheworldwouldneedto

followto

reachthe1�5°Ctarget�Asharpdichotomyisemergingbetweentheslow,incrementalchangethatcharacterisestheenergytransitionseentoday,

andtheaccelerationnecessaryto

achievetheradicalchangesrequired

to

move

theworldontoasustainablepath�Thetwoscenariosencapsulatethisdichotomy�Bothscenariosconsiderthesamesetofdrivers,rangingfrom

economicgrowthandtechnologicaldevelopmentto

climatepolicyandgeopolitics,andbothscenariosrecognisetheprofoundsystemicchangerequiredto

puttheenergysystem

onamoresustainabletrack�Thedifferencebetweenthetwoscenariosistherelativeforce

ofthesedriversandtheextentto

whichtheyinfluencethefuturepathoftheglobalenergysystem

after2025�Inshort,Walls

failsto

deliveronthetransitionneededto

reachclimateambitions,whilstBridges

doesnot�Thefutureofenergymarketsisdifficultto

predict�Recenteventshaveshownitisnotonlythelong-termdevelopmentofmacroeconomicsandenergymarketsthatare

uncertain�Covid-19

hasonlyashort-termimpactinbothscenarios,withChinabeingthelastmajoreconomyto

exititszero-covidpolicythisyea

�TheRussianinvasionofUkraineandtheassociatedgeopoliticaltensionshavegivenriseto

thereappearance

ofobstaclesto

cooperationandexistingtrade

andsupplyflowswhichmayhavelong-lastingeffects�Energy

Perspectives

does

not

try

topredict

thefuture

but

shows

possible

future

paths

for

theglobal

energy

systembased

on

the

choices

theworld

makes,

providing

a

platform

for

debate

andinformed

decision-making.EnergyPerspectives2023

|

5WallsBridgesWalls

signifytheabundanceofbarriersblockingfundamentalandaccelerated

changeintheglobalenergy

system.IfWalls

signifythebarriersto

change,Bridgesrepresent

theovercomingof

thesebarriersandtheimpetustowards

accelerated

change.Throughouthumanhistory,

wallshavebeenbuilttoprotect

usfrom

thethingsthatwe

fear:intruders,plagues,viruses,theweather,

andwildanimals�Inadvertently,wallsexcludeus,cutoffoptionsandplaceobstaclesinourpath�Walls

shieldus,butalsoformbarriersto

transitionandmovement�Bridgeshelpusto

connect,allowingpeopleto

reachplacestheywouldnototherwisehavebeenabletoreachandachievethingstheywouldnototherwisehavebeenableto

achieve�Bridgesare

open-endedandfacilitatetransition,movement,trade

andcommunication�Wallsprotect,

but

they

also

divide.Bridges

connect

and

enable.TheWalls

scenariobuildsoncurrenttrendsinmarket,technologyandpolicy,assumingthemto

continuedevelopingataslowlyacceleratingpaceinthefuture�Economicgrowthremainsthekey

driverforgrowingenergydemand,andnationalgovernmentscontinueto

prioritiseshort-termeconomicgrowthover

long-termclimategoals�LegislationsuchastheUSInflationReductionAct

(IRA)andtheEUGreenDealIndustrialPlanhighlightsthereturnofindustrialpolicies,whichmayacceleratetheenergytransition,butmayalsocreate

marketdistortionsandinefficienciesthatmaketheenergytransitionmore

costly�

Geopoliticaltensionsinthewake

oftheRussianinvasionofUkraineleadtolong-lastingeffectsoneconomicdevelopmentandgovernmentpolicy,especiallyintheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS),theEUandChina�TheBridges

scenarioisanormativeback-castconstrainedby

anenergy-relatedCO₂

emissionsbudgetof445GtCO₂

compliantwitha50%probabilityofnomore

thana1�5°Ctemperaturerise*�Abenigngeopoliticallandscapeisestablished,supportingrenewedcooperationandfriendlycompetitionamongnations�Energymarketsbecomemore

integratedandtechnologicaladvancementsare

sharedmore

readily�

Climateactionremainsthekey

driver,

andallregionsare

underpressureto

rapidly

phaseoutfossilfuels,buildrenewablecapacity,

improve

energyefficiencyandmake

drasticbehaviouralchanges�Theacceleratedtransitionbringssignificantchangesto

theenergysystem

evenbefore

2030�Thisambitiousscenarioservesto

illustratetheenormouschallengetheworldisfacedwith�Itistechnicallywithinreach,butwhetheritisalsopracticallyandeconomicallyachievable,andsaleableto

voters

oncealltheimplicationsare

clear,

isopento

debate�Thescenarioisnotanchoredindetailedanalyticalconvictionsbutratheraimsto

stimulatediscussionsaroundthefeasibilityofthechangesrequired

to

limitglobalwarmingto

1�5°Cby

theendofthecentury�Theenergytransitionislimitedby

cooperationandtrust,andalthoughclimatepoliciescontinueto

tighten,withmomentumdrivenmainlyby

theindustrialisedregions,thescenariodoesnotmeetallstated

targetsanddoesnotmove

fastenoughto

satisfythegoalsoftheParisAgreement�Changeissimplynothappeningfastenough�Walls

isastoryaboutanenergytransitionthatisslowlyaccelerating,butthatdoesnotreachclimatetargets�However,

itisimportantto

note

thatthechangestotheglobalenergysystem

outlinedinWalls

are

notagiven�Theywillstillrequire

enormouschangesto

thefoundationsoftheglobalenergysystem�*

The

IPCC’s6th

Assessment

Report

puts

the

CO₂budgetfor2020-50

period

at

500

Gt.

This

budget

is

tobe

sharedbetween

emissions

in

energy,in

industrial

uses

likecement,

andin

agriculture.

In

this

analysis

a

budget

of445

Gt

is

allocated

toemissions

forenergy

purposes.6

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EnergyPerspectives2023KEYINSIGHTSEnergyPerspectives2023

|

7Key

insightsfrom

Energy

Perspectives

2023Energy

Perspectives

presentstwoscenariosfor

economicandenergymarket

development,Walls

andBridges.Walls

buildsoncurrentenergymarkettrendsandenergyandclimatepolicies,assumingclimateactionto

progress

ataslowlyacceleratingpaceinthefuture�Bridges

isanormativeback-castcomplyingwiththe1�5°CWALLSBRIDGEScarbonbudget,demonstratingtheenormousandsustainedeffortsrequiredto

reachthistarget�Theworldwillcontinuetoneedenergy,butwillbecomemoreenergyefficientWallsBridgesHistoryGDPGDPHistorically,between1990-2020energyintensityimproved

by

1�2%peryea

�Towards

2050,

theenergyintensitydeclinesby

1�9%peryearinWalls

and3�2%peryearinBridges

withelectrificationbeingthekeyenable

�EnergydemandEnergydemand20202050Source:

IEA,

©

OxfordEconomics

Limited

2023

(history),Equinor

(projections)Peakdemandforfossilfuelsarrivesbefore2030GlobalfossilfueldemandGtoe16128InWalls,thepeakoccursin2026,followedby

agentledownward

trajectory�InBridges,fossilfueldemanddeclinesatarapidpaceafter2025�By

2050,

allremainingfossilfueluseiseitherfullyabatedorcompensatedbycarbonremoval�4020102020Walls2030Bridges20402050Source:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)History8

|

EnergyPerspectives2023GasdemandwillcontinuetogrowinWalls,butdeclinessharplyinBridgesGlobalgasdemandThousandBcm54321InWalls,gasdemandpeaksin2039

andisaround10%higherthantoday’s

level

in2050�InBridges,gasdemandpeaksin2025andfallstoaroundathirdoftoday’s

level

in2050�020102020203020402050WallsBridgesHistorySource:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)EnergyconsumptionshiftstowardselectricityElectricityshareoftotal

finalenergyconsumption%InWalls,electrificationacceleratessteadilytowards2050,

increasingitsshareby

half�50403020100InBridges,

amassiveaccelerationhappensbefore2030�

By

2050,

theshareexceeds50%,twoandahalftimesaslarge�20102020Walls2030Bridges20402050HistorySource:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)Windandsolarphotovoltaics(PV)capacityshowsignificantgrowthcomparedto2020levelsWindandsolarPVcapacityThousand

GW20202030205016128InWalls,windcapacityisfive

timesgreater,

andsolarPVcapacityninetimesgreaterin2050comparedwithtoday�InBridges,windcapacityiseighttimesgreater,

andsolarPVcapacity13timesgreaterin2050comparedwithtoday�40Walls

BridgesWalls

BridgesSource:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)SolarPVWindEnergyPerspectives2023

|

9Electrificationandhydrogen,includingitsderivativeswillcontributetothedecarbonisationoftransportTransport

fuelmixGtoe4321202020302050Inbothscenarios,electricvehiclesreplaceinternalcombustionenginesinroad

transportbutto

adifferentextent�InBridges,furtherdecarbonisationisachievedbyincreasingtheuseofhydrogen,includingitsderivativesinmarineandairtransport�0Walls

BridgesWalls

BridgesElectricitySource:

IEA

(history)

Equinor

(projections)OilGasBiomassHydrogenCarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)willplayanessentialroleinthedecarbonisationofthepowerandindustrysectorsCarboncaptured

andstored

annuallyGtCO₂7654321202020302050InWalls,CCUSonbothcoalandgasstartstoaccelerateafter2030�InBridges,thereismassivegrowthinCCUSevenbefore

2030,

andafter2030thereisextensivecontributionsfrom

carbonremoval

technologiesandpractices�0Walls

BridgesWalls

BridgesSource:

IEA

(history)

Equinor

(projections)CoalOilGasNBS*DAC*BECCS*CCUSCarbonremoval*

Nature-based

solutions

(NBS),

Bioenergy

with

carbon

captureand

storage(BECCS),Direct

air

capture(DAC)Currentnetzerocommitmentsarenotenoughtoavoidglobalwarmingabove1.5°CGlobalenergy-relatedCO₂

emissions,aftercarbonremovalGtCO₂40InWalls,the1�5°Cbudgetisexhaustedby

2033�InBridges,currentcommitmentsare

met,andfurthercommitmentsare

madethatenableemissionstoremainwithinthe1�5°Ccarbonbudgetwiththehelpofcarbonremoval

technologies�3020100Source:

IEA

(history)

Equinor

(projections)2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050WallsBridgesHistory10

|

EnergyPerspectives2023ThedemandformineralsneededtosupporttheenergytransitionissettoincreasesignificantlyMineraldemand**Indexed

2016-20

(average

demand)=

14321InWalls,thedemand**formineralsdoublesby

theearly2030scomparedwiththeaverageannualdemandfrom2016

to

2020�InBridges,demandpeaksby

2035andthendropstowards

2040drivenby

mineralintensityimprovementsandaslowdowninnewannualcapacityadditions�**

Mineral

demand

needed

tosupport

annual

capacity

additionsofsolar

PV

and

wind

in

powergeneration02016-20

(avg.)203020402030History2040Source:

EquinorWallsBridgesThemineralvaluechainsarecomplexCO

intensity2Geopolitics,specialisedsupplychains,pricehikes,aswellasenvironmental,socialandgovernanceissuesare

allchallengingfuturesupplyofminerals�Waste

&contaminationGeopoliticsInnovationwillbeanimportantenablerto

securefuturemineralreservesandeasedemandforthoseinshortsupplyorethicallycompromised�HumanrightsInnovationMineralsSpecialisedSustainabilitysupplychainsWaterPriceshortageincreasesSource:

EquinorForsomeminerals,currentproductionlevelsareinsufficienttomeetfuturedemandSolarPVandwinddemandforselectedmineralsin2040asshareof2022annualproduction120%100%80%60%40%20%0%2022productionlevelInbothWalls

andBridges,increasedmineraldemand**willchallengesupply,

withthefutureannualdemandforcertainmineralsexceedingcurrentproductionlevels�For

futuremineraldemandandsupplyto

balance,productionlevelsmustincreaseorinnovationmustdrivedemanddown�Source:

USGS,

Wang

et

al***,Equinor***

Wang

etal.

(2023)

Futuredemand

forelectricity

generationmaterials

under

differentclimate

mitigation

scenarios,

Joule

7,309-332.Elsevier

Inc.CuDy(Wind)

Nd(Wind)

Te

(Solar)

Ag

(Solar)SolarPVandwindOthersectorsDemandexceedingcurrentproductionEnergyPerspectives2023

|

11APPENDIX12

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EnergyPerspectives2023Key

figures2020-2050growthperyear(%),CAGR20202050UnitsWalls

BridgesWalls

BridgesGlobalGDP2015-USDtrillion2015-USDtrillion2015-USDtrillion2015-USDtrillion81�449�014�817�6158�075�9158�074�72�21�53�03�22�21�43�13�3NorthAmerica,Europe,IndustrialAsiaPacificChina36�345�837�046�3Rest

ofWorldGlobalenergyintensity-indexedto

2020Globalpopulation1007�855�49�738�09�7-1�90�7-3�20�7billionGlobalenergydemandGtoeGtoeGtoeGtoeGtoeGtoembdBcm13�773�664�093�2114�811�693�710�150�271�020�990�985�2824�31,1970�2-2�5-0�30�3-1-8�3-4�5-3�81�1CoalOilGas3�541�042�7381�44,256Nuclear0�71�4NewrenewablesOilexcl

biofuelsGas0�3688�93,8667�09�3-0�30�3-4�2-3�8Globalenergy-relatedCO₂

emissionsbilliontonnesbilliontonnesbilliontonnesbilliontonnesbilliontonnes31�45�221�22�71�10�20�00�10�1-1�3-2�2-3�8-2�71�2-10�7-10�8-15�9-15�1-8�9NorthAmericaEurope3�41�04�53�0China10�22�1IndiaWorld

CO₂

emissionsfrom

fossilfueluseremoved

by

CCUSWorld

CO₂

emissionsremoved

from

atmosphereMtMt15085801,96414�4-17�6-4,300Globallightdutyvehicles(LDVs)

fleetmillion1,3751,6141,3680�50�0LDVS

oildemandMtoeMtoeMtoe98765254246291-2�0-1�216�9-11�1-14�018�4LDVs

biofueldemandLDVs

electricitydemand197292EnergyPerspectives2023

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13UnitsDefinitionsEnergydemandandconsumptionCoalOilBtcembdBcmbilliontonnesofcoalequivalentmillionbarrelsperdaybillioncubicmetreHistory:1990-2020Projection:2021-2050GasPowerRegionsTWhGWterawatt-hourgigawatt(1watt

x10

)9Thereare

12regionsmodelled�Industralised:EuropeanUnion,IndustralisedAsiaPacific,NorthAmerica,OtherEurope�EnergyMtmilliontonnes(1tonnex10gigatonnes(1tonnex106)Gt9)Emerging:Africa,China,CIS(CommonwealthofIndependentStates),India,MiddleEast,OtherAmericas,OtherAsiaPacific,SoutheastAsiaMtoeGtoemilliontonnesofoilequivalentgigatonnesofoilequivalentCarbonGtC0₂

gigatonnesofcarbondioxideSectorsMonetary

USD1USdollarThereare

8sectorsmodelled�Industry,residential,otherstationary,transport,non-energy,power&heat,hydrogen,othertransformation14

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EnergyPerspectives2023AcknowledgementsanddisclaimerAcknowledgementsTheanalyticalbasisforthisoutlookislong-termresearchonmacroeconomicsandenergymarketsundertakenby

theEquinororganisationduringthefirst

halfof2023�Theresearchprocesshasbeencoordinatedby

Equinor’s

unitforMacroeconomicsandEnergyMarketAnalysis,withcrucialanalyticalinput,supportandcommentsfrom

otherpartsofthecompany�Jointeffortsandclosecooperationinthecompanyhavebeencriticalforthepreparationofanintegratedandconsistentoutlookfortotalenergydemandandtheprojectionsofthefutureenergymixindifferentscenarios�We

hereby

extendourgratitudeto

everybodyinvolved�Theeditorialprocessconcludedon8thJune2023�DisclaimerThisreportisprepared

by

avarietyofEquinoranalystpersons,to

presentmatters

fordiscussionandanalysis,notconclusionsordecisions�Findings,views,andconclusionsrepresentfirst

andforemosttheviewsoftheanalystpersonscontributingtothisreportandcannotbeassumedto

reflect

theofficialpositionofpolicieso