以效率原则分解碳强度目标的结果方法与政策建议课件

theInput-OutputandEmissionReductioninChina

ZhangYaxiong张亚雄

Dept.ofEconomicForecasting,StateInformationCenter

No.58SanliheRoad,Beijing,P.R.China100045

国家信息中心经济预测部

100045北京市西城区三里河路58号

Email:zhangyx@

theInput-OutputandEmissionContentsTheIOTcompilationinChinaTheapplicationsinclimatechangestudyinSICEstimationofChina’snetexportemissionSectoralcompetitivenessimpactsofcarbonpricingpolicyChina’scarbonintensitytargetprovincialdis-aggregationSummary

ContentsTheIOTcompilationinChina’sNationalandprovinciallevelInput-Outputtables

YearTypeoftheTableNumberofindustries1987Benchmarktable1391990Updatedtable331992Benchmarktable1191995Updatedtable331997Benchmarktable1242000Updatedtable402002Benchmarktable1222005Updatedtable422007Benchmarktable135theNBSnationalandprovincialIOtablestheSICnationalIOtablescompetitiveimporttypetablesYearNon-competitiveimporttypeIOtables1985√(106sectors,updatedtable)1990√(106sectors,updatedtable)1995√(78sectors,updatedtable)2000√(142sectors,updatedtable)2002√(122sectorsimportmatrix)2005√(133sectors,updatedtable)China’sNationalandprovinciaChina’sMulti-provincialIO(CMPIO)modelsSIC’sfirstdevelopmentwork:1997China’s8-region,30-sectormulti-regionalIOmodel(SIC,2005)Thefeaturesofthe2002and2007CMPIOtheentiredevelopmentworkisbasedon30provinces(municipalities,autonomousregions),variousregionalversionsofMRIOmodelcanbemadeafteraggregatingdifferentprovincegroupsestimationofinterregionaltradecoefficients:weproposespecificmodelbasedonentropymaximizingandgravitymodelsincooperationwithDepartmentofNationalAccountsofNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS),wemodifyinterregionaltransactionmatrix,adoptingthebasicsurveydatareflectinginter-provinceinflowandoutflowin“NationalInput-OutputSurvey2007”whenconductingbalanceadjustment,eachprovince’stablearefullyusedintotalcontrolthatthesumofallprovinces’tablesequalstonationaltable

China’sMulti-provincialIO(CEstimatingtheNetExportEmissionBetweenChinaandEuropeanUnion，UnitedStates,Japanin2007

BackgroundStronginter-relationshipbetweenclimatechangeandexternaltradeWithinthefastgrowthofenergyconsumptionandCO2emissioninChina,abigpartofthatisfortheexportproductionEmissiondataisbasedonproductionside,whilenottakeintoaccounttradeEmbodiedenergy：thedirectenergyconsumptionwithinoneindustry(commodity)plusallindirectenergyconsumptionwithinitsintermediateinputsEmbodiedemissions:thecarbonemissionsduringtheembodiedenergyusingNetexportemission=exportembodiedcarbonemissions–importembodiedcarbonemissions

EstimatingtheNetExportEmisEstimatingtheNetExportEmissionBetweenChinaandEuropeanUnion，UnitedStates,Japanin2007

EstimatingtheNetExportEmisEstimatingtheNetExportEmissionBetweenChinaandEuropeanUnion，UnitedStates,Japanin2007

ProductionsideemissiondatafromEIA

TheadjustmentoftheCO2emissionfromproductionsidetoconsumptionside

（100millionstons）EstimatingtheNetExportEmisEstimatingtheNetExportEmissionBetweenChinaandEuropeanUnion，UnitedStates,Japanin2007

China’sexportshareandemissionshareby20IndustriesEstimatingtheNetExportEmisSectoralcompetitivenessimpactsofcarbonpricingpolicy

20$/tCO2onUSeconomy(CSreport:Grubbetal.,2009)20euro/tCO2onUKeconomy(CSreport:Hourcadeetal.,2007)20euro/tCO2onGermaneconomy(CS)20$/tCO2inJapan(CS:Grubb,2009)SectoralcompetitivenessimpacSectoralcompetitivenessimpactsofcarbonpricingpolicy

China’ssectoralcompetitivenessimpact(100yuan/tCO2,roughly11-12euro/tCO2)SectoralcompetitivenessimpacSectoralcompetitivenessimpactsofcarbonpricingpolicy

Sectorsaffected:Electricity:dependingonwhetherpass-throughcanbemadeIron&steel,aluminum,chemicals,etc.:needfurthersub-sectoralstudiesformakingnecessarycompensatorymeasuresChoiceofcarbonpriceLowstartrateissafetyintermsofcompetitivenessandmacroimpactsHighstartratewouldneedcarefuldesignsonrevenueuse/compensatorymeasures,etc.FormsofcarbonpriceETSonindustryandelectricity;CTonhouseholdandtransport?InternationalAspectCarbonleakageiflowstartCPatdomesticPossibilityofintroducingshort-term(comparable)explicitCPintoexport?SectoralcompetitivenessimpacChina’scarbonintensitytargetprovincialdis-aggregation

Itshouldbeconsideredtogetheronhowtodis-aggregatethetargetandhowtoachievethetarget,andtheprincipleistolinktheequityandefficiencytogetherIfthereisnocarbonmarket:thetargetdis-aggregationshouldbaseonefficiency,whiletoachievetheequitythroughtransferpaymentandotherpolicytoolsduringtheimplementationIfthereexiststhecarbonmarket:thetargetdis-aggregationshouldbaseonequity,whiletoachieveefficiencythroughthemarketChina’scarbonintensitytargeChina’scarbonintensitytargetprovincialdis-aggregation

EUKyototargetsunderburdensharingarrangement,comparedtoactualchangeinemissionsChina’scarbonintensitytarge遵循效率原则的目标分解结果

Targetdis-aggregationmethodbasedoncostminimization

主要结论1：减排目标较大的省份主要集中在西部和东北等区域Result1:thehighertargetprovincesaremainlyinthewesternandnortheasternregions主要结论2：不同地区完成减排目标的方式不同，发达省份更多地依靠经济发展方式转型；而欠发达地区则将主要依赖未来的专门减排政策Result2:advancedprovincestendtorelyonthesuccessfultransferofeconomicdevelopmentpattern,whileunderdevelopmentprovincesneedadditionalparticularmitigationpolicies遵循效率原则的目标分解结果

Targetdis-aggr遵循效率原则的碳强度目标分解方法

Targetdis-aggregationmethodbasedoncostminimization

效率原则：遵循减排成本最小化原理开展碳强度目标分解。如果各省在完成其减排目标时，所做出额外减排努力的边际减排成本相等，那么全国的减排总成本将实现最小Thecarbonintensitytargetcouldbeseparatedinto2parts,whereAistheprovincial

carbon

intensitychangewithinBAU

scenario,Bistheonewhichneedadditionaleffortstoachieve.Itwillinduceadditionalcost.Thetotalcostwillbeminimizedifthemarginalabatementcosts(MAC)foreachprovincesareequalA：存在于BAU（BusinessAsUsual）情景中。主要体现了各省所处的经济社会发展阶段、资源禀赋变化、能源生产效率改进等theBAUscenarioreflectsgrowthtrend,techniqueefficiency,resourceendowment,etc.B：通过额外减排努力实现的减排幅度。需要各省在未来采取专门的减排政策，因此需要付出额外的减排成本。这些措施包括“上大压小”等行政手段，以及碳税、可再生能源补贴基金等经济手段。ToachieveBneedsnewpolicyandpayadditionalcost

B

A

2005

2020

T

Carbonintensity

BAU

Target

遵循效率原则的碳强度目标分解方