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5.TimeValueofMoney&Valuation货币时间价值与估价15.TimeValueofMoney5.1CentralConceptsinFinancialManagement5.2Simplevs.Compound

InterestRatesandFuturevs.

PresentValue5.3Annuity25.Valuation5.4ValuationFundamentals5.5BondValuation5.6CommonStockValuation35.1CentralConceptsAbirdinthehandisworthtwointhebush.45.1CentralConceptsRisk-returntradeoff:Investorswilltakeonadditionalriskonlyiftheyanticipatehighreturn.56.1IntroductiontoRiskandReturn6.2EfficientMarketHypothesis(EMH)6.3PortfolioTheory6.4BetaandCapitalAssetPricingModel6.5ArbitragePricingTheory65.1CentralConceptsTimevalueofmoney:Adollaravailabletodayisworthmorethanadollaravailableatafuturedate.Thisisbecauseadollartodaycanbeinvestedtoearnareturn.75.2.1SimpleinterestIfsimpleinterestispaidonadebtinstrument(suchasbonds),itisgenerallyreferredtoasanannuity.Thepresentvalueoftheannuityisthepriceatwhichthedebtinstrumenttradesinanefficientmarket.85.2.1Simpleinterest95.2.2CompoundinterestCompoundinginvolvescalculatinginterestnotonlyontheprincipalbutalsoontheinterestearnedtodateonthatprincipal,assumingthattheinterestisreinvested.105.2.2CompoundinterestTheso-calledcompoundingeffectthereforetendstoincreasetheamountofinterestpaid(charged)astheprincipalincreasesduetotheadditionofpreviousinterestpayments(charges).115.2.2CompoundinterestMostcreditcardholdersareacutelyawareoftheimplicationsofmissinganinterestpaymentasthisamountisthenaddedtotheoutstandingbalancetocalculatetheamendedamountowing!125.2.2Compoundinterest135.2.4PresentValueTheinterestrateusedtocomputethepresentvalueiscalledthediscountrate,butmayalsobereferredtoastheopportunitycost,requiredrateofreturn,andthecostofcapital.145.3AnnuityThesizeofthecashflowfromthesecurityisidenticalineachperiod;Thetimingofthecashflowsisuniform,i.e.,thecashflowsoccuratthesameperiodicinterval.155.3AnnuityBondssatisfybothcriteriaastheypayasetcouponratebasedontheinitialprincipalinvestedatuniformperiodsintime.165.3AnnuityOrdinaryannuity——thefirstcashflowintheseriesisoneperiodfromtoday.Thisisthemostcommonformofannuity.Annuitydue——thefirstcashflowintheseriesoccursatthebeginningofeachperiod.175.3AnnuityDeferredannuity——thefirstcashflowintheseriesoccursbeyondoneperiodfromtoday.Perpetuity——theseriesofpaymentscontinuesindefinitely.185.3.1OrdinaryannuityTocalculatethispayment,theFaceValueoftheannuity-thetotalamountinvestedasprincipal-mustbemultipliedbythecouponrate,thatis,theprevailinginterestrateofferedfortheannuityatthetimeofpurchase/sale.195.3.1Ordinaryannuity205.3.1OrdinaryannuityThisisconsistentwiththeviewthatfuturevaluesmustbediscountedwhenscaledbacktopresenttime,whereaspresentornearpresentvaluemustbemagnifiedtocorrectlyequatewithfuturevalue.215.3.2AnnuitydueThedistinguishingfactorwithanannuitydueisthefactthatthefirstcashflowoccursonthevaluationdate,i.e.,immediately.225.3.2AnnuitydueTherefore,thecorrectadjustmentforanannuitydueistoreducethediscountingfactorbyoneandtoaddtothereducedcalculationanon-discountedcashflowstream.235.3.2AnnuitydueFVADn=A(FVIFAi,n)(1+i)PVADn=A(PVIFAi,n-1)+A=A(PVIFAi,n)(1+i)245.3.3Two-stagediscountingmethodEssentially,theperiodicpaymentsarediscountedbacktothefirstperiodpriortothebeginningofthecashflowstream.Thisvalueisthendiscountedbacktotime0.255.3.4Perpetuity265.3.5EffectiveinterestratesWhenpaymentsaremademoreorlessfrequentlythantheinterestiscompounded,thismisspecificationcanberesolvedbymatchingthepaymentperiodwiththecompoundingperiod.27NominalinterestrateArateofinterestquotedforayearthathasnotbeenadjustedforfrequencyofcompounding.28EffectiveinterestrateTheeffective(annual)interestrateiscalculatedtodetermineaneffectiverate(usuallyannual)fromaratewithmultiplecompoundingperiods.29举例Forexample,ifasavingsplanofferedanominalinterestrateof8percentcompoundedquarterly/semiannuallyonaone-yearinvestment,theeffectiveannualinterestratewouldbe:30Effectiveinterestrate31举例(1+0.08/4)4-1=(1+0.02)4-1=0.08243(quarterly)(1+0.08/2)2-1=(1+0.04)2-1=0.0816(semiannually)32EffectiveinterestrateTheeffectiverateofaninvestmentwillalwaysbehigherthanthenominalorstatedinterestratewheninterestiscompoundedmorethanonceperyear.335.4ValuationFundamentalsGoing-concernvalueLiquidationvalueBookvalueMarketvalueIntrinsicvalue34Going-concernvalueThistypeofvaluedependsonthefirm’sabilitytogeneratefuturecashflowsratherthanonitsbalancesheetassets.35LiquidationvalueLiquidationvaluepershareistheactualamountpershareofcommonstockthatstockholderswouldreceiveifthefirmsellallassets,paysallitsliabilitiesincludingpreferredstock,anddividesanyremainingmoneyamongthem.36BookvalueBookvaluepershareofcommonstockistheshareholders’equity-totalassetslessliabilitiesandpreferredstockaslistedonthebalancesheet-dividedbythenumberofsharesoutstanding.37BookvalueThebookvalueofanassetistheaccountingvalueoftheasset-theasset’scostminusitsaccumulateddepreciation.385.4.6ValuationapproachesDiscountedcashflow(DCF)valuationRelativevaluationContingentclaimvaluation39DiscountedCashFlowValuation405.5BondValuationAbondisacontractorapromissorynoteissuedbyacorporationorgovernmentpromisingtopaytheownerofthebondapredeterminedamountofinteresteachyear.41①ParvalueFeelbelowpar感觉不好Beuptopar达到一般水平Parvalue~facevaluematurityvaluenominalvalueprincipal42①ParvalueThepriceofabondmayriseaboveorfallbelowitsparvalueduetodifferencesbetweenitscouponrateandprevailingmarketinterestrates.43②CouponandCouponrateCouponpaymentistheperiodicinterestpaymentwhichisequaltothecouponinterestrateasapercentratemultipliedbythematurityorparvalueofthebond.44②CouponandCouponrateThecouponinterestrate,alsocalledthenominalyield,facevalue,isthecontractualrateofinterestbasedonabond’sparvalue.45③MaturityTermtomaturityorsimplymaturityofabondisthelengthoftimeuntiltheagreementexpires.46④CallprovisionsWithacallfeature,theissuermaydecidetoretirebondstotakeadvantageoflowinterestrates,togetridofrestrictiveindentureprovisions,ortoreduceindebtedness.47④CallprovisionsAcallpremiumisanadditionalamountthattheissueragreestopayabovethebond’sparvaluetorepurchasethebond.48⑤SinkingFundProvisionsAsinkingfundprovisionpermitstheissuertoretireabondthroughaseriesofpredefinedprincipalpaymentsoverthelifeoftheissue.49⑥ConversionrightsSuchbondsarecalledconvertibledebtbecausetheyofferthebondholderachanceforcapitalgainsinexchangeforlowercouponpayments.50⑦PutProvisionSomebondshaveaputprovision,whichgivesthebondholdertherighttosellthebondstockbacktotheissuerattheputpriceoncertaindatesbeforematurity.51⑧IndentureNegativecovenants:payingtoomuchdividendspledgingassetstootherlenderssellingmajorassetsmergingwithanotherfirmaddingmorelong-termdebt52⑧IndentureAffirmative/Positivecovenants:maintainingcertainratioskeepingcollateralingoodconditionmakingtimelypaymentsofinterestandprincipal53⑨Trustee:托管人Atrusteeisthebondholders’agent,typicallyabank,inapublicdebtoffering.54⑨TrusteeIftheborrowerviolatestheterms,thetrusteeinitiatesactionagainsttheissuerandrepresentsthebondholdersinthisaction.55⑩Collateral:担保品Secureddebt:有担保债务

Mortgagebonds(住房)抵押债券Collateraltrustbonds(证券)担保信托债券Asset-backedsecurities(ABS)56⑩Collateral:担保品Unsecureddebt:无担保债务Debentures信用债券Subordinateddebentures次级信用债券

IncomebondsJunkBonds57⑾Bondrating:债券评级MajorratingservicesincludeStandard&Poor’sCorporation(S&P),Moody’sInvestorsService,Inc.(Moody’s)andFitchInvestorServices.585.5.2TheBondValuation

Formula595.5.3BondPricesand

ReturnsCurrentYield:现行收益率YieldtoMaturity:到期收益率return-to-maturity(RTM)

internalrateofreturn(IRR)60YieldtoMaturity615.6CommonStockValuationCommonstockcharacteristicsandfeaturesCommonstockvaluation625.6CommonStockValuationCommonstockholders:ResidualownersBeartheultimaterisksandrealizetherewardsofownershipHavelimitedliability63ParorNoparStockForcommonstock,parvalueisthestatedvalueattachedtoasingleshareatissuance.64ParorNoparStockIfacompanysellsstockformorethanitsparvalue,itrecordsanyissuepriceinexcessofparasadditionalpaid-incapitalorcapitalinexcessofpar.65SupposethatFawltyPacemakers,Inc.,isreadytostartbusinessforthefirsttimeafterjusthavingsold10,000sharesof$5-par-valuecommonstockat$45ashare.Theshareholders’equityportionofthebalancesheetwouldbe:66Commonstock($5parvalue;10,000sharesissuedandoutstanding)$50,000Additionalpaid-incapital400,000Totalshareholders’equity$450,00067ParorNoparStockIfacompanysellsstockforlessthanitsparvalue,anydiscountfromparrepresentsalegalliabilityoftheownerstothecreditingintheeventofliquidation.68ParorNoparStockTheissuercarriesnoparstockonitsbooksattheoriginalmarketpriceoratsomeassignedorstatedvalue,whichisusuallybelowtheactualissuingprice.69Authorized,issued,outstanding,andtreasuryThecharterofacorporationspecifiestheauthorizedsharesofcommonstock,whicharemaximumnumberofsharesthatthecorporationmayissuewithoutamendingitscharter.70Authorized,issued,outstanding,andtreasuryOutstandingsharesrefertothenumberofsharesissuedandactuallyheldbythepublic.Thefirmbasesitsearningspershareanddividendspershareontheoutstandingshares.71RighttoVoteAvoiceinmanagementAmendingthecorporatecharterandbylawsSelectingthefirm’sindependentauditorsChangingtheamountofauthorizedshares72RighttoVoteApprovingtheissuanceofsecuritiesProxytheirvotetoothers73Priortotheannualmeeting,managementsolicitsproxiesfromshareholderstovotefortherecommendedslateofdirectorsandforanyotherproposalsrequiringshareholderapproval.74Ifshareholdersaresatisfiedwiththecompany,theygenerallysubmittheproxyforminfavorofmanagement,givingauthorizationtom

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